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NASA NTRS2021

The Long-term Transport and Radiative Impacts of the 2017 British Columbia Pyrocumulonimbus Smoke Aerosols in the Stratosphere

Interactions of meteorology with wildfires in British Columbia, Canada during August 2017 led to three major pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events that resulted in the injection of large amounts of smoke aerosols and other combustion products at the local upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). These plumes of UTLS smoke with elevated values of aerosol extinction and backscatter compared to the background state were readily tracked by multiple satellite-based instruments as they spread across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The plumes were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8-10 months following the fire injections, with a stratospheric aerosol e-folding time of about 5 months. To investigate the radiative impacts of these events on the Earth system, we performed a number of simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Observations from multiple remote-sensing instruments were used to calibrate the injection parameters (location, amount, composition and heights) and optical properties of the smoke aerosols in the model. The resulting simulations of three-dimensional smoke transport were evaluated for a year from the day of injections using daily observations from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler). The model simulated rate of ascent, hemispheric spread and residence time (or e-folding time) of the smoke aerosols in the stratosphere are in close agreement with OMPS-LP observations. We found that both aerosol self-lofting and the large-scale atmospheric motion play important roles in lifting the smoke plumes from near the tropopause altitudes (~12 km) to about 22-23 km into the atmosphere. Further, our estimations of the radiative impacts of the pyroCb-emitted smoke aerosols showed that the smoke caused an additional warming of the atmosphere by about 0.6-1 W/m2 (zonal mean) that persisted for about 2-3 months after the injections in regions north of 40oN. The surface experienced a comparable magnitude of cooling. The atmospheric warming is mainly located in the stratosphere, coincident with the location of the smoke plumes, leading to an increase in zonal mean shortwave (SW) heating rates of 0.02-0.04 K/day during September 2017.

pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models

Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern global high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers, this is an oversight since there are likely grid cells where the physical output of a climate model is compared with a statistically interpolated quantity instead of actual measurements of the climate system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of high-resolution climate model representations of precipitation extremes in boreal winter (December–January–February) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), comparing model output from five early submissions to the HighResMIP subproject of the CMIP6 experiment. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance. Across the models considered, failing to account for sampling impacts the different metrics (extreme bias, spatial pattern correlation, and spatial variability) in different ways (both increasing and decreasing). We argue that the geographic sampling of weather stations should be accounted for in order to yield a more straightforward and appropriate comparison between models and observational data sets, particularly for high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers. While we focus on the CONUS in this paper, our results have important implications for other global land regions where the sampling problem is more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Northern Late Winter Planetary Waves: MRO/MARCI Observations and Mars Climate Model Simulations

As does Earth, Mars presents pronounced global atmospheric circulation patterns. Solar differential heating drives mean meridional overturning (Hadley) circulations which are deep and intense, are hemispherically asymmetric, and where a cross-equatorial single cell dominates. Within middle and high latitudes, thermally indirect eddy-driven (Ferrel) circulation cells have been indicated. Differently, however, large-amplitude orography on planetary and continental scales on Mars can force very non-Earth-like hemispheric circulation patterns. Recent observations from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, "Mars Color Imager" (MARCI) instrument are utilized that emphasize water ice clouds in ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths, and these measurements have been binned into "daily global maps" (DGMs) of water-ice cloud optical depth. The presence of large-scale, extratropical quasi-stationary atmospheric wave disturbances in middle and late winter of the northern hemisphere have been found to be present in such DGMs. In combination with such observations, a full-physics Mars global climate model (NASA ARC marsgcm 2.1) is applied to place the observations into context. During late northern winter, it is found that strong, forced Rossby modes (i.e., planetary waves) exist, and with direct correlation to columnintegrated cloud opacity undulating spatial patterns. At this season, zonal wavenumber s = 2 dominates (in contrast to wavenumber s = 1), consistent with MGS/TES analyses at this particular season (Banfield et al., 2003). Large-scale, planetary waves dictate the "coherence" of the northern polar vortex. Fundamentally, such forced planetary waves influence the polar vortex's impermeability (wave-induced) to tracer transport (e.g., dust and water-ice aerosol) and temporal mean water vapor spatial variations. The large-scale dynamical features of such planetary waves will be highlighted and discussed.

Northern polar vortex↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Understanding of Cloud Microphysical Processes and Aerosol Indirect Effects in High-Latitude Mixed-Phase Clouds by Linking ARM Measurements with Climate Model Simulations (Final Report)

The key objectives of this project were to advance our understanding of cloud microphysical characteristics and aerosol indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds in high latitudes. To improve the representation of ice and mixed-phase clouds in Earth System Models (ESMs), we propose an integrated observation and modeling study of cloud macro- and microphysical properties, including spatial heterogeneities, mass partitioning between ice crystals and supercooled liquid water, effects of ice nucleating particles (INPs), and efficiency of secondary ice production (SIP), etc. Specifically, we took four main approaches in this project: (1) examining macro- and microphysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds based on in-situ and ground-based observations from multiple field campaigns funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, including the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), Ice Nucleating Particle Sources at Oliktok Point (INPOP), ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS), and Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE); (2) evaluating the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations based on observations, particularly for ice and mixed-phase cloud microphysical properties; (3) examining the impacts of INPs on ice and mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, a series of comparisons were conducted using observations over the Arctic, Southern Ocean, and Antarctica, including comparisons between the lower and higher southern latitudes as well as comparisons between the northern and southern hemispheres. In addition, aerosol indirect effects from distinct sources of dust particles were examined; and (4) investigating the impacts of SIP. Ultimately, these results helped to improve cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interaction parameterizations in the E3SM model. Overall, the project provided improved understanding regarding various factors, including thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol conditions, on the micro- and macrophysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds in the high latitudes. Resulting analysis helped to provide an improved physical basis for refining the current cloud microphysics parameterizations related to ice and mixed-phase clouds in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Photodissociation regions. I - Basic model. II - A model for the Orion photodissociation region

A theoretical parameter study of the temperature and chemical structure of dense photodissociation regions and their resultant spectrum is presented. Models are discussed which are relevant not only to the dust and gas between molecular clouds and H II regions, but also apply to any neutral cloud illuminated by intense FUV fluxes. The models relate observed line and continuum emission from these regions to physical parameters such as the gas density and temperature, the elemental and chemical abundances, the local radiation field, and the grain properties. The results are applied to observational data from the OMC-1 region. The model shows that the observed high brightness temperature of the C I 609 microns line can be explained by emission from the C(+)/C/CO transition region. This difference with previous chemical models is due to a higher gas phase elemental abundance of carbon, to the charge exchange reactions of C(+) with S and SiO, and to carbon self-shielding.

Tielens, A. G. G. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Final report

The bulk of the research results supported by this grant had to do with the diurnal cycle of convection and/or convective organization over the Amazon with some analysis also done over the Southern Great Plains, and large-scale drivers of changes in these convective properties like the Amazonian low-level jet. A comprehensive suite of DOE observational and modeling tools was utilized. Overall, the research results collectively emphasize the significance of accurately observing and modeling mesoscale convective systems and the diurnal cycle of convection, particularly in the Amazon, to enhance understanding and forecasting of regional precipitation patterns and climate dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Self-calibrating models for dynamic monitoring and diagnosis

The present goal in qualitative reasoning is to develop methods for automatically building qualitative and semiquantitative models of dynamic systems and to use them for monitoring and fault diagnosis. The qualitative approach to modeling provides a guarantee of coverage while our semiquantitative methods support convergence toward a numerical model as observations are accumulated. We have developed and applied methods for automatic creation of qualitative models, developed two methods for obtaining tractable results on problems that were previously intractable for qualitative simulation, and developed more powerful methods for learning semiquantitative models from observations and deriving semiquantitative predictions from them. With these advances, qualitative reasoning comes significantly closer to realizing its aims as a practical engineering method.

Kuipers, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS1995

The FU Orionis outburst as a thermal accretion event: Observational constraints for protostellar disk models

The results of the time-dependent disk models developed in Bell & Lin are compared with observed properties of FU Orionis variables. Specific models are fit to the light curves of Fu Ori, V1515 Cyg, and V1057 Cyg. The slow risetime of V1515 Cyg can be matched by a self-regulated outburst model. The rapid risetimes of FU Ori and V1057 Cyg can be fitted with the application of modest perturbations to the disk surface density. Model disks display spectral features characteristic of observed objects. The color evolution of V1057 Cyg is naturally explained if mass flux drops in the inner disk (r less than 1/4 AU) while remaining steady in the outer disk. The decrease in optical line width (rotational velocity) observed during the decay of V1057 Cyg may be accounted for by an outward-propagating ionization front. We predict that before final decay to the quiescent phase, short-wavelength line widths (lambda less than 1.5 microns) will again increase. It is suggested that FU Orionis outbursts primarily occur to systems during the embedded phase with ages less than several times 10(exp 5) yr.

Bell, K. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by –93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2020

Residual Study: Testing Jupiter Atmosphere Models Against Juno MWR Observations

The Juno spacecraft provides unique close-up views of Jupiter underneath the synchrotron radiation belts while circling Jupiter in its 53-day orbits. The microwave radiometer (MWR) onboard measures Jupiter thermal radiation at wavelengths between 1.37 and 50 cm, penetrating the atmosphere to a pressure of a few hundred bars and greater. The mission provides the first measurements of Jupiter's deep atmosphere, down to ~250 bars in pressure, constraining the vertical distributions of its kinetic temperature and constituents. As a result, vertical structure models of Jupiter's atmosphere may now be tested by comparison with MWR data. Taking into account the MWR beam patterns and observation geometries, we test several published Jupiter atmospheric models against MWR data. Our residual analysis confirms Li et al.'s (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073159) result that ammonia depletion persists down to 50–60 bars where ground-based Very Large Array was not able to observe. We also present an extension of the study that iteratively improves the input model and generates Jupiter brightness temperature maps which best match the MWR data. A feature of Juno's north-to-south scanning approach is that latitudinal structure is more easily obtained than longitudinal, and the creation of optimum two-dimensional maps is addressed in this approach.

Zhimeng Zhang↗
NASA NTRS2012

Remote and In Situ Observations of an Unusual Earth-Directed Coronal Mass Ejection from Multiple Viewpoints

During June 16-21, 2010, an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) event was observed by instruments onboard STEREO, SOHO, MESSENGER and Wind. This event was the first direct detection of a rotating CME in the middle and outer corona. Here, we carry out a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the CME in the interplanetary medium comparing in-situ and remote observations, with analytical models and three-dimensional reconstructions. In particular, we investigate the parallel and perpendicular cross section expansion of the CME from the corona through the heliosphere up to 1 AU. We use height-time measurements and the Gradual Cylindrical Shell (GCS) technique to model the imaging observations, remove the projection effects, and derive the 3-dimensional extent of the event. Then, we compare the results with in-situ analytical Magnetic Cloud (MC) models, and with geometrical predictions from past works. We nd that the parallel (along the propagation plane) cross section expansion agrees well with the in-situ model and with the Bothmer & Schwenn [1998] empirical relationship based on in-situ observations between 0.3 and 1 AU. Our results effectively extend this empirical relationship to about 5 solar radii. The expansion of the perpendicular diameter agrees very well with the in-situ results at MESSENGER ( 0:5 AU) but not at 1 AU. We also find a slightly different, from Bothmer & Schwenn [1998], empirical relationship for the perpendicular expansion. More importantly, we find no evidence that the CME undergoes a significant latitudinal over-expansion as it is commonly assumed

Nieves-Chinchilla, T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models: NmF2, hmF2, and Vertical Drift Using Ground-Based Observations

Objective quantification of model performance based on metrics helps us evaluate the current state of space physics modeling capability, address differences among various modeling approaches, and track model improvements over time. The Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge was initiated in 2009 to assess accuracy of various ionosphere/thermosphere models in reproducing ionosphere and thermosphere parameters. A total of nine events and five physical parameters were selected to compare between model outputs and observations. The nine events included two strong and one moderate geomagnetic storm events from GEM Challenge events and three moderate storms and three quiet periods from the first half of the International Polar Year (IPY) campaign, which lasted for 2 years, from March 2007 to March 2009. The five physical parameters selected were NmF2 and hmF2 from ISRs and LEO satellites such as CHAMP and COSMIC, vertical drifts at Jicamarca, and electron and neutral densities along the track of the CHAMP satellite. For this study, four different metrics and up to 10 models were used. In this paper, we focus on preliminary results of the study using ground-based measurements, which include NmF2 and hmF2 from Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs), and vertical drifts at Jicamarca. The results show that the model performance strongly depends on the type of metrics used, and thus no model is ranked top for all used metrics. The analysis further indicates that performance of the model also varies with latitude and geomagnetic activity level.

Shim, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Studies of Particle Acceleration, Transport and Radiation in Impulsive Phase of Solar Flares

Solar activity and its most prominent aspect, the solar flares, have considerable influence on terrestrial and space weather. Solar flares also provide a suitable laboratory for the investigation of many plasma and high energy processes important in the magnetosphere of the Earth and many other space and astrophysical situations. Hence, progress in understanding of flares will have considerable scientific and societal impact. The primary goal of this grant is the understanding of two of the most important problems of solar flare physics, namely the determination of the energy release mechanism and how this energy accelerates particles. This is done through comparison of the observations with theoretical models, starting from observations and gradually proceeding to theoretically more complex situations as the lower foundations of our understanding are secured. It is generally agreed that the source of the flare energy is the annihilation of magnetic fields by the reconnection process. Exactly how this energy is released or how it is dissipated remains controversial. Moreover, the exact mechanism of the acceleration of the particles is still a matter of debate. Data from many spacecrafts and ground based instruments obtained over the past decades have given us some clues. Theoretical analyses of these data have led to the standard thick target model (STT) where most of the released energy goes into an (assumed) power law spectrum of accelerated particles, and where all the observed radiations are the consequence of the interaction of these particles with the flare plasma. However, some theoretical arguments, and more importantly some new observations, have led us to believe that the above picture is not complete. It appears that plasma turbulence plays a more prominent role than suspected previously, and that it is the most likely agent for accelerating particles. The model we have developed is based on production of a high level of plasma waves and turbulence in the reconnection region above a flare loop. This turbulence accelerates particles stochastically which radiate some of their energy in this region but carry most of their energy to the footpoints of the loop, where they lose all their energy and radiate bulk of the observed radiation as in the traditional thick target model. In the past we have worked on various aspects of this model. We have evaluated the interaction rates of the plasma waves with electrons and ions, developed theoretical frameworks for the acceleration, transport and radiative processes, and produced numerical codes for the investigation of these processes. The goal of this grant has been further development and testing of this new paradigm, with emphases on the relative acceleration of electrons and ions and on a comprehensive investigation of the turbulence generation, cascade, and damping processes. We review several pieces of important evidence that we have uncovered indicating the crucial roles of turbulence, in and we describe accomplishments during the past two years of this grant.

Petrosian, Vahe↗
NASA NTRS2017

CEDAR-GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event

In order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against ground-based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physics-based, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.

Shim, J. S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Importance of Laboratory Astrophysics and Astrochemistry and Interdisciplinary Research: Two Success Stories

Here we present two examples that demonstrate how cross-disciplinary research projects, where experimentalists, modelers and observers work together to answer science questions, allow expertise to be shared and misconceptions or missing key elements to be tackled by looking at the problem from different perspectives. They also show how, by working in unison, the group can accomplish more than the sum of its parts by combining results into a higher-level understanding of the chemical processes taking place. The first project is a collaborative study between experimentalists, modelers and observers to1) produce laboratory analogs of cosmic grains and planetary aerosols (Titan, Pluto...) from different gas mixtures in cold astrophysically relevant conditions (<200 K); and 2) characterize them with scanning electron microscopy and visible-to-far-infrared spectroscopy in order to assess the impact of the precursors on their growth structure and optical properties. We can then produce and study analogs that are representative of different formation stages or environments, and provide their complex refractive indices to the scientific community. We will show how, by using these experimental optical constants of more representative analogs in radiative transfer and reflectance spectra models, better interpretations of (exo)planetary atmosphere- and surface observations are possible. The second project is an interdisciplinary study of the formation of benzene clouds in the atmosphere of Saturn’s largest moon, Titan. We will show how combining Earth and Planetary Science laboratory expertise, modeling and observations has led to providing to the scientific community, for the first time, experimental vapor pressures for benzene at cold temperatures(<200K) relevant to Titan’s atmospheric conditions. These have been used in microphysical models instead of the higher temperature extrapolations used previously, allowing a better match to observations.

Ella Sciamma-o'Brien↗
NASA NTRS2019

Quantifying the Relative Impact of Model Microphysics Parameterizations and Scattering Models in Simulating Synthetic Radar and Microwave Radiometer Observations

Output from numerical weather models is often used to simulate observations from remote sensing instruments, for purposes ranging from data assimilation, synthetic retrievals of geophysical quantities, and optimization of observing systems. However, when hydrometeors are present, the level of detail provided by the weather model is generally insufficient to fully constrain the input to the radiative transfer model (RTM), and further assumptions must be made by the RTM user in order to produce synthetic observations. Using a hierarchy of models including cloud-resolving, double-moment, bin microphysical, and ice-habit predicting models, along with scattering properties from the OpenSSP, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) databases, as well as relatively simple geometries (e.g., cylindrical plates and columns), we demonstrate the spread in synthetic observation output and the extent to which it is reduced when microphysics is more strongly constrained by the model. As an intermediate step, an error budget for the RTM simulations was derived and from that we developed and will describe best practices for observation simulation (e.g., optimal number of hydrometeor size bins, truncation of the particle size distribution, angular resolution of scattering phase function). Some statistical comparisons with observations will also be presented.

Munchak, S. Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interannual to Decadal Variability in Subarctic Atlantic Ocean Primary Productivity Historical Variability, Dynamics, and Response to Warming

Phytoplankton primary productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean sustains valuable fisheries and exports anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide, but multiple Earth system models show that this productivity declines substantially in 21st century global warming scenarios. Prior studies have investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton, which exhibit a prominent but spatially variable spring bloom that is caused by the closely related seasonal cycles in solar radiation and vertical mixing that modulate both phytoplankton growth and loss rates. However, recent work indicates that multi-decade declines in this spring bloom with global warming in multiple Earth system models are driven by reductions in circulation of nutrients from the subtropical and tropical thermocline, rather than local changes in vertical mixing or shortwave radiation in the Subarctic. It is unclear if current models of how phytoplankton productivity varies seasonally or over a century in global warming can be interpolated to explain the interannual to decadal variability. In this poster, I will quantify the interannual to decadal variability of phytoplankton chlorophyll using historical satellite ocean color observations and model simulations with the Community Earth System Model. I will then use the observations and model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability and how that variability is restructured in 21st century global warming scenarios.

nterannual↗