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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Suppression of Midinfrared Plasma Resonance Due to Quantum Confinement in δ-Doped Silicon

The classical Drude model provides an accurate description of the plasma resonance of three-dimensional materials, but only partially explains two-dimensional systems where quantum mechanical effects dominate such as P:δ layers—atomically thin sheets of phosphorus dopants in silicon that induce electronic properties beyond traditional doping. Previously it was shown that P:δ layers produce a distinct Drude tail feature in ellipsometry measurements. However, the ellipsometric spectra could not be properly fit by modeling the δ layer as a discrete layer of classical Drude metal. In particular, even for large broadening corresponding to extremely short relaxation times, a plasma resonance feature was anticipated but not evident in the experimental data. In this work, we develop a physically accurate description of this system, which reveals a general approach to designing thin films with intentionally suppressed plasma resonances. Our model takes into account the strong charge-density confinement and resulting quantum mechanical description of a P:δ layer. Here, we show that the absence of a plasma resonance feature results from a combination of two factors: (i) the sharply varying charge-density profile due to strong confinement in the direction of growth; and (ii) the effective mass and relaxation time anisotropy due to valley degeneracy. The plasma resonance reappears when the atoms composing the δ layer are allowed to diffuse out from the plane of the layer, destroying its well-confined two-dimensional character that is critical to its distinctive electronic properties.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Testing H 0 in Acoustic Dark Energy with Planck and ACT Polarization

The canonical acoustic dark energy model (cADE), which is based on a scalar field with a canonical kinetic term that rapidly converts potential to kinetic energy around matter radiation equality, alleviates the Hubble tension found in ΛCDM. Here, we show that it successfully passes new consistency tests in the CMB damping tail provided by the ACT data, while being increasingly constrained and distinguished from alternate mechanisms by the improved CMB acoustic polarization data from Planck. The best fit cADE model to a suite of cosmological observations, including the SH0ES H 0 measurement, has H 0 = 70.25 compared with 68.23 (km s –1 Mpc –1 ) in ΛCDM and a finite cADE component is preferred at the 2.8σ level. The ability to raise H0 is now mainly constrained by the improved Planck acoustic polarization data, which also plays a crucial role in distinguishing cADE from the wider class of early dark energy models. ACT and Planck TE polarization data are currently mildly discrepant in normalization and drive correspondingly different preferences in parameters. Improved constraints on intermediate scale polarization approaching the cosmic variance limit will be an incisive test of the acoustic dynamics of these models and their alternatives.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kinetic Theory and Fast Wind Observations of the Electron Strahl

We develop a model for the strahl population in the solar wind - a narrow, low-density and high-energy electron beam centred on the magnetic field direction. Our model is based on the solution of the electron drift-kinetic equation at heliospheric distances where the plasma density, temperature and the magnetic field strength decline as power laws of the distance along a magnetic flux tube. Our solution for the strahl depends on a number of parameters that, in the absence of the analytic solution for the full electron velocity distribution function (eVDF), cannot be derived from the theory. We however demonstrate that these parameters can be efficiently found from matching our solution with observations of the eVDF made by the Wind satellite's SWE strahl detector. The model is successful at predicting the angular width (FWHM) of the strahl for the Wind data at 1 au, in particular by predicting how this width scales with particle energy and background density. We find that the strahl distribution is largely determined by the local temperature Knudsen number γ ∼ |T dT/dx|/n, which parametrizes solar wind collisionality. We compute averaged strahl distributions for typical Knudsen numbers observed in the solar wind, and fit our model to these data. The model can be matched quite closely to the eVDFs at 1 au; however, it then overestimates the strahl amplitude at larger heliocentric distances. This indicates that our model may be improved through the inclusion of additional physics, possibly through the introduction of 'anomalous diffusion' of the strahl electrons.

Horaites, Konstantinos↗
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
NASA NTRS2008

Development of Solar Wind Model Driven by Empirical Heat Flux and Pressure Terms

We are developing a time stationary self-consistent 2D MHD model of the solar corona and solar wind as suggested by Sittler et al. (2003). Sittler & Guhathakurta (1999) developed a semiempirical steady state model (SG model) of the solar wind in a multipole 3-streamer structure, with the model constrained by Skylab observations. Guhathakurta et al. (2006) presented a more recent version of their initial work. Sittler et al. (2003) modified the SG model by investigating time dependent MHD, ad hoc heating term with heat conduction and empirical heating solutions. Next step of development of 2D MHD models was performed by Sittler & Ofman (2006). They derived effective temperature and effective heat flux from the data-driven SG model and fit smooth analytical functions to be used in MHD calculations. Improvements of the Sittler & Ofman (2006) results now show a convergence of the 3-streamer topology into a single equatorial streamer at altitudes > 2 R(sub S). This is a new result and shows we are now able to reproduce observations of an equatorially confined streamer belt. In order to allow our solutions to be applied to more general applications, we extend that model by using magnetogram data and PFSS model as a boundary condition. Initial results were presented by Selwa et al. (2008). We choose solar minimum magnetogram data since during solar maximum the boundary conditions are more complex and the coronal magnetic field may not be described correctly by PFSS model. As the first step we studied the simplest 2D MHD case with variable heat conduction, and with empirical heat input combined with empirical momentum addition for the fast solar wind. We use realistic magnetic field data based on NSO/GONG data, and plan to extend the study to 3D. This study represents the first attempt of fully self-consistent realistic model based on real data and including semi-empirical heat flux and semi-empirical effective pressure terms.

Sittler, Edward C., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Analysis of Multifidelity Finite Element Simulations

Abstract The numerical accuracy of finite element analysis (FEA) depends on the number of finite elements used in the discretization of the space, which can be varied using the mesh size. The larger the number of elements, the more accurate the results are. However, the computational cost increases with the number of elements. In current practice, the experimenter chooses a mesh size that is expected to produce a reasonably accurate result, and for which the computer simulation can be completed in a reasonable amount of time. Improvements to this approach have been proposed using multifidelity modeling by choosing two or three mesh sizes. However, mesh size is a continuous parameter, and therefore, multifidelity simulations can be performed easily by choosing a different value for the mesh size for each of the simulations. In this article, we develop a method to optimally find the mesh sizes for each simulation and satisfy the same time constraints as a single or a double mesh size experiment. A range of different mesh sizes used in the proposed method allows one to fit multifidelity models more reliably and predict the outcome when meshes approach infinitesimally small, which is impossible to achieve in actual simulations. We illustrate our approach using an analytical function and a cantilever beam finite element analysis experiment.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical and Environmental Monitoring Data, and Subsurface Flow Modelling Results for Chicken Bone Meadow, Mt. Snodgrass, Crested Butte, CO

This dataset includes geoelectrical monitoring data acquired between October 2021 and November 2022, soil moisture and temperature data, groundwater data obtained from borehole SNIB covering the period from June 2021 to September 2022, and hydrological modelling results. The data were acquired to investigate how variations in bedrock type and topography, and vegetation cover control subsurface flow dynamics. To provide insights into the subsurface flow dynamics and their controls, a monitoring transect was installed at the Chicken Bone Meadow, Mt. Snodgrass, Crested Butte, CO, measuring the spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture, soil and snow temperature, subsurface electrical resistivity variations, and groundwater dynamics. Field data are organized in a folder structure, with Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) data being provided as one file per measurement, and data of the soil moisture and temperature sensors being provided as text files covering the entire monitoring period. The ‘Locations.csv’ file contains the location of all sensors, given in NAD83 – UTM Zone 13N. ERT monitoring data has been processed to filter data based on reciprocal errors (data with errors > 30% were removed), a linear error model was fitted to each survey, and to ensure a constant set of measurements for time-lapse inversion, filtered data were interpolated and assigned a 100% measurement error. Soil moisture and temperature data were acquired at 15 min intervals, and averaged to provide 1h data. Weather data and borehole data (groundwater depth, conductivity and temperature) were acquired at 30 min intervals, and are provided as daily measurements; all measurements are averaged, except of precipitation values, which are given as daily accumulation. The hydrological model was set up along the ERT monitoring transect, and net infiltration was used as surface boundary condition and derived from the weather data. Four different results are provided, (1) results for a parameterization using hydraulic permeability and porosity as derived from the ERT data through petrophysical relationships, and (2) three simplified model results, using 1 to 3 geological layers above the bedrock. Modelling was performed using PFLOTRAN, and for each model the PFLOTRAN input files are provided. The result files include weekly hydrological modelling results (e.g., saturation, velocities, pressures), as well as the model parameterization. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning electric vehicle driver range anxiety with an initial state of charge-oriented gradient boosting approach

This manuscript focuses on the modeling of electric vehicle (EV) driver’s range anxiety, a fear that a vehicle does not have sufficient range, or state of charge (SOC) of the battery pack, to reach its destination and would strand its occupants. Despite numerous research studies on the modeling of charging behaviors, modeling efforts to understand at what battery percentages do EV drivers charge their vehicles, and what are the associated contributing factors, are rather limited. To this end, an ensemble learning model based on gradient boosting is developed. The model sequentially fits new predictors to new residuals of the previous prediction and, then, minimizes the loss when adding the latest prediction. A total of 18 features are defined and extracted from the multisource data, which cover information on driver, vehicles, stations, traffic conditions, as well as spatial-temporal context information of the charging events. The analyzed dataset includes 4.5-year’s charging event log data from 3,096 users and 468 public charging stations in Kansas City Missouri, and the macroscopic travel demand model maintained by the metropolitan planning organization. Here, the result shows the proposed model achieved a satisfactory result with a R square value of 0.54 and root mean square error of 0.14, both better than multiple linear regression model and random forest model. To reduce range anxiety, it is suggested that the priorities of deploying new charging facilities should be given to the areas with higher daily traffic prediction, with more conservative EV users or that are further from residential areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Resolving the Origin of the Diffuse Soft X-ray Background

In January 1993, the Diffuse X-ray Spectrometer (DXS) measured the first high-resolution spectrum of the diffuse soft X-ray background between 44-80A. A line-dominated spectrum characteristic of a 10(exp 6)K collisionally ionized plasma' was expected but while the observed spectrum was clearly line-dominated, no model would fit. Then in 2003 the Cosmic Hot Interstellar Plasma Spectrometer (CHIPS) launched and observed the diffuse extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum between 90- 265A. Although many emission lines were again expected; only Fe IX at 171.1A was detected. The discovery of X-rays from comets led to the realization that heavy ions (Z=6-28) in the solar wind will emit soft X-rays as the ions interact via charge exchange with neutral atoms in the heliosphere and geocorona. Using a new model for solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) emission, we show that the diffuse soft X-ray background can be understood as a combination of emission from charge exchange onto the slow and fast solar wind together with a more distant and diffuse hot (10(exp 6)K) plasma.

Smith, Randall K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1985

Role of long-wavelength degrees of freedom in the rod-to-coil transition in polymers

An analytical model is fitted to experimental data to show that rod-to-coil (RTC) transformations in single strand polymers (SSPs) are close to true phase transitions. The RTC are known to occur when the temperature or pH of a solvent in which the SSP is immersed is varied abruptly. Long wavelength degrees of freedom in the SSPs induce long range interactions in the molecule which lead to a first order phase transition. The Landau formalism suggests that a long-range ordered state can appear at a low temperature. A microscopic model of the phonon degrees of freedom identifies the nonzero temperature threshold at which the phase transition will occur. The phenomenology described is similar to a previous model for transitions in double-strand polymers.

Goldenfeld, N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring cryo-electron microscopy with molecular dynamics

Single particle analysis cryo-electron microscopy (EM) and molecular dynamics (MD) have been complimentary methods since cryo-EM was first applied to the field of structural biology. The relationship started by biasing structural models to fit low-resolution cryo-EM maps of large macromolecular complexes not amenable to crystallization. The connection between cryo-EM and MD evolved as cryo-EM maps improved in resolution, allowing advanced sampling algorithms to simultaneously refine backbone and sidechains. Moving beyond a single static snapshot, modern inferencing approaches integrate cryo-EM and MD to generate structural ensembles from cryo-EM map data or directly from the particle images themselves. We summarize the recent history of MD innovations in the area of cryo-EM modeling. The merits for the myriad of MD based cryo-EM modeling methods are discussed, as well as, the discoveries that were made possible by the integration of molecular modeling with cryo-EM. Lastly, current challenges and potential opportunities are reviewed.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
NASA NTRS1998

New Approach to Diagnosing Properties of Protoplanetary Disks

In this paper we suggest that subjecting the observationally derived properties of protoplanetary disks to the evolutionary interpretation yields new insights into the working of those disks, and offers valuable constraints on their models. We propose that the global properties of individual disks, such as their accretion rates and disk masses, sorted by the mass of the central star, can be indexed by the age of the star to simulate the evolution of a single disk. Using data from published surveys of T Tauri stars, we show that accretion rate data, and disk mass data for the lowest mass stars, form well-defined evolutionary tracks. The higher mass stars show a definitive negative correlation between accretion rates and star ages. We use the time-dependent alpha-disk model of the viscous protoplanetary disk to link the theory to observations. The data are consistent with the standard theoretical paradigm, but not with the layered accretion model. The best fits to the data are obtained for the standard models that start with disks that are about one-third of the mass of the central star and have their angular momenta, j, and alpha-coefficients linked by the relationship j varies as Solar mass(exp 3/2)alpha(exp 1/3). The proportionality constant in this relationship, when derived from the accretion rate data, differs from the constant derived from the disk mass data. We argue that the accretion rate data are more reliable. Taking into account typical values of the specific angular momentum of disk-forming matter, we obtain alpha is greater than or equal to 10(exp -2). A complete time-dependent standard disk model, built on the parameters determined from the best-fit procedure, is presented. Such a model constitutes a good point of departure for various theoretical studies aimed at the issue of formation of planetary systems and the character of protoplanetary disks.

Stepinski, Tomasz F.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗