Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “level set”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Utility Distributed Energy Resource Management System and Aggregators for Evolving Distribution System Operators

With the rapid integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), distribution utilities are faced with new and unprecedented issues. New challenges introduced by high penetration of DERs range from poor observability to overload and reverse power flow problems, under-over-voltages, maloperation of legacy protection systems, and requirements for new planning procedures. Distribution utility personnel are not adequately trained, and legacy control centers are not properly equipped to cope with these issues. Fortunately, distribution energy resource management systems (DERMSs) are emerging software technologies aimed to provide distribution system operators (DSOs) with a specialized set of tools to enable them to overcome the issues caused by DERs and to maximize the benefits of the presence of high penetration of these novel resources. However, as DERMS technology is still emerging, its definition is vague and can refer to very different levels of software hierarchies, spanning from decentralized virtual power plants to DER aggregators and fully centralized enterprise systems (called utility DERMS). Although they are all frequently simply called DERMS, these software technologies have different sets of tools and aim to provide different services to different stakeholders. This paper explores how these different software technologies can complement each other, and how they can provide significant benefits to DSOs in enabling them to successfully manage evolving distribution networks with high penetration of DERs when they are integrated together into the control centers of distribution utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pathways to IEC Standards for Heliostat Design Qualification and Site Acceptance in Central Receiver CSP Applications

This paper surveys the existing landscape of standards relevant to heliostats, identifies their gaps, and proposes a path forward to a comprehensive set of heliostat guidelines, technical specifications, and standards under the framework of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) TC 117. Gaps in existing guidelines and standards are surveyed using a three-tiered taxonomy: component-level, heliostat-level, and field-level. At each level, the gap analysis is followed by a proposal for a coordinated path forward on the development of standards. At the component level, advances in the understanding of wind loading should inform a technical specification for drives and structures. Reflectors require consolidation of measurement guidelines into existing standards documents. Communications & controls require technical standards to inform their selection and secure implementation. At the heliostat level, IEC 62817 (solar trackers) adequately characterizes drive systems, structures, and electronics, but requires adaptation to heliostats' use patterns, operating modes, and expected life cycles. IEC 62817 does not address heliostat beam quality and pointing accuracy, but the process for determining both is elaborated in the SolarPACES Guideline for Heliostat Performance Testing. This SolarPACES document requires two main modifications: adaptation to IEC language and inclusion of testing after heliostats which have undergone accelerated weathering and mechanical cycling (to understand performance degradation). At the field level, IEC 62862-4-2 addresses the function and control of heliostat fields but does not cover the statistically rigorous testing of heliostat groups, or field performance factors like security and soiling. The addition of documents under IEC-62862-4 is proposed to address this gap.

beam↗
DOE OSTI2021

Best practices for building energy codes compliance

Building energy codes are a proven policy mechanism to achieve economy-wide energy savings in buildings. In 2021, the International Energy Agency Energy in Buildings and Communities Programme (IEA EBC) Building Energy Codes Working Group (BECWG) set out to survey the diverse codes compliance practices across BECWG member countries. While codes vary in format and approach, attaining the energy reduction potential of building energy codes requires effective implementation and compliance. This is a large undertaking for countries, as effective compliance checking requires adequate resources, technical knowledge, capacity, and strong institutions. Many nations face the same compliance issues, such as requiring faster and easier methods to verify codes and coordinating among numerous stakeholders and levels of government. This paper explores the need for stronger institutional approaches to enforce building energy codes that will lead to code compliance. Specifically, this report sets out to address the question of what practices result in effective building energy code compliance in selected BECWG member countries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Case Study of Luminaire-Level Lighting Control: Lighting the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) Office in Portland, OR

What happens when advanced lighting and control systems are installed in the real world? Are the advantages and energy savings realized? By observing the design, installation, commissioning, and ongoing use of connected lighting systems in real-world settings, it is possible to identify the strengths, challenges, and points of human-technology interaction that may be new or unfamiliar to those responsible for implementing or maintaining the lighting system. Ultimately, understanding and experiencing each stakeholder’s interaction with the technology can allow the research team to synthesize feedback for manufacturers, improve industry understanding of the technology, and increase adoption. The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) office in Portland, OR, is a single-floor installation that puts tunable-white, interoperability, and luminaire-level advanced control capabilities to the test. Compared to simpler, “out-of-the-box” systems that minimize field-adjustable settings, the system utilized in this space allowed for granular field adjustments which required the system specifier, client, and programming agent to make additional decisions regarding system operation while the system was being programmed. This report communicates the observational findings from the installation, programming, and ongoing operation of an advanced office LLLC system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning in Infectious Disease for Risk Factor Identification and Hypothesis Generation: Proof of Concept Using Invasive Candidiasis

Machine learning (ML) models can handle large data sets without assuming underlying relationships and can be useful for evaluating disease characteristics, yet they are more commonly used for predicting individual disease risk than for identifying factors at the population level. We offer a proof of concept applying random forest (RF) algorithms to Candida-positive hospital encounters in an electronic health record database of patients in the United States. Candida-positive encounters were extracted from the Cerner HealthFacts database; invasive infections were laboratory-positive sterile site Candida infections. Features included demographics, admission source, care setting, physician specialty, diagnostic and procedure codes, and medications received before the first positive Candida culture. We used RF to assess risk factors for 3 outcomes: any invasive candidiasis (IC) vs non-IC, within-species IC vs non-IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs noninvasive C. glabrata), and between-species IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC). Fourteen of 169 (8%) variables were consistently identified as important features in the ML models. When evaluating within-species IC, for example, invasive C. glabrata vs non-invasive C. glabrata, we identified known features like central venous catheters, intensive care unit stay, and gastrointestinal operations. In contrast, important variables for invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC included renal disease and medications like diabetes therapeutics, cholesterol medications, and antiarrhythmics. Known and novel risk factors for IC were identified using ML, demonstrating the hypothesis-generating utility of this approach for infectious disease conditions about which less is known, specifically at the species level or for rarer diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Smart Grids Enhanced Situation Awareness: A Bi-Level Quasi-Static State Estimation Model

Smart Grid situational awareness is provided by Energy Management Systems. A core process of these systems is State Estimation. The great majority of state estimators model the Smart Grid through a set of nonlinear algebraic equations, named the measurement model. Problem formulation considers the Gauss solution. Several model improvements have been presented regarding the Gauss solution, aiming between others to provide measurement noise robustness to the state estimation process. While considerable effort has been focused on such developments, state estimation is still constrained by the implicit modelling error, and thus inevitably vulnerable to cyber-threats. In this work, a state estimation bi-level formal model is presented towards Smart Grids enhanced situational awareness considering the concepts of synthetic measurements and innovation. Comparative test results with the state-of-the-art on the IEEE 14-bus system are presented highlighting improved situational awareness to bad data. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.

cyber security↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding and modeling current and future coastal wetland methane dynamics (Final Report)

The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic component of the Earth system that plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling. Due to its dynamic nature, the processes that regulate decomposition and methane (CH 4 ) emissions are of greater significance at the TAI than in upland systems. Despite this, we have limited mechanistic understanding of how climate stressors interact to regulate the electron acceptors and donors that determine decomposition pathways within TAIs, including the generation of hot spots and hot moments. Accurately modeling these processes is critical for incorporating the coastal TAI into Earth systems models, such as DOE’s E3SM. With previous DOE support, we adapted an aerobic terrestrial representation of decomposition using PFLOTRAN, a reactive flow and transport model, and added anerobic decomposition pathways, salinity, and oxygen (O 2 ) that fluctuates independently of water table level. However, because this model (PFLOTRAN TAI ) is based on decomposition rates and organic matter carbon to nitrogen ratios from terrestrial systems, its performance in TAI systems is currently limited by the lack of empirical data to properly parameterize variables. In addition, while PFLOTRAN TAI can simulate movement of O 2 into sediments, it is not currently capable of tracking the movement of CH 4 gas through plant tissues due to both current model structure and lack of available data. Our overall objective of the project was the increase our mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics in response to environmental change, such that we can improve the representation of these dynamics in PFLOTRAN. We installed automated flux chambers in a new field-scale active soil warming experiment and set up marsh organs (mesocosms) to test effects of warming, flooding, and salinity. This resulted in a new dataset consisting of chamber-level CH 4 flux measurements across multiple sites, ecological conditions, and timeframes, as well as corresponding measurements on porewater chemistry, soil carbon quality, plant biomass, and redox reaction rates. Using these data, we improved PFLOTRAN TAI to more accurately model CH 4 dynamics and successfully tested our hypotheses. This grant contributed to the professional development of 3 postdocs, 4 undergraduate interns, 4 teacher interns, 17 technicians, and 15 participatory scientists. The automated chamber technology designed for this grant has also been shared with multiple new projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Synthesis Methodology for Intelligent Memory Interfaces in Accelerator Systems

Domain-specific systems improve the performance of a specific set of applications compared to general-purpose processing systems by deploying custom hardware accelerators. These hardware accelerators are generated using high-level synthesis (HLS) tools. The HLS tools enable a comprehensive design space exploration to optimize the compute performance of the generated accelerators. However, they often ignore the challenges of implementing the accelerators in a system-on-chip, particularly how the accelerators access memory. Our work introduces a buffering system design that improves accelerators' memory accesses by intelligently employing burst transactions to prefetch useful data from external memory to on-chip local buffers. Our design is dynamic, parametric, and transparent to the accelerators generated by HLS tools. We derive the buffering system parameters using appropriate compiler-based analysis passes and memory channel latency constraints. The proposed buffering system design results in, on average, 8.8x performance improvements while lowering memory channel utilization on average by 53.2% for a set of PolyBench kernels.

Limaye, Ankur M. (ORCID:0000000194062584)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Few-shot leaf segmentation

In this work, we use few-shot learning to segment the body and vein architecture of Populus trichocarpa leaves from high-resolution scans obtained in the UC Davis common garden. Leaf and vein segmentation are formulated as separate tasks, in which convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are used to iteratively expand partial segmentations until reaching stopping criteria. Our leaf and vein segmentation approaches use just 50 and 8 manually traced images for training, respectively, and are applied to a set of 2,634 top and bottom leaf scans. We show that both methods achieve high segmentation accuracy, in some cases exceeding even human-level segmentation. The leaf and vein segmentations are subsequently used to extract 68 morphological traits using traditional open-source image processing tools, which are validated using real-world physical measurements. For a biological perspective, we perform a genome-wide association study using the "vein density" trait to discover novel genetic architectures associated with multiple physiological processes relating to leaf development and function. In addition to sharing all of the few-shot learning code, we are releasing all images, manual segmentations, model predictions, 68 extracted leaf phenotypes, and a new set of SNPs called against the v4 P. trichocarpa genome for 1,419 genotypes.

Lagergren, John [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), O↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Tools Set for Natural Gas Fuel Cell System Design

This study is focusing on leveraging the system design tools set for the next-generation solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) based natural gas fuel cell (NGFC) system. Conventionally, system design and optimization of NGFC systems rely heavily on traditional reduced order model (ROM) techniques and designers’ experience level. For overcoming the technical barriers of system design, multiple multi-physics models and machine learning (ML) tools have been utilized to automate the conceptual design process and enhance the reliability of solutions for the NGFC system. The proposed tools set includes a physics-informed ML tool for automated ROM construction that leverages advances in deep neural networks to significantly reduce ROM prediction error for the NGFC power island compared to traditional approaches. The constructed physics-informed ML ROM can be used in system design, and optimization tools set Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Process Systems Engineering (PSE) framework. The tools set also provides a user-friendly graphic user interface built within Jupyter Notebooks, and the complete tools set is open-source public available.

Wang, Dewei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Delay-, Distance-, and Cordon-Based Congestion Pricing Strategies Via Large-Scale Simulation

This study compares the impacts of delay-, distance-, and cordon-based congestion pricing strategies for Austin, Texas, using the POLARIS agent-based activity-based travel demand simulation model. This approach enables agent-level heterogeneity and realistic choice options (including destination, mode, and activity scheduling) for dynamic traffic assignment and congestion feedbacks across a major metro region, which are features lacking in past work. To ensure comparability, distance-based tolls were set to generate the same revenue as delay-based tolling of $3.5 M/day, averaging $1.17/resident/day or $0.42/vehicle-trip. Delay-based pricing delivers 44% lower network delay and 13% lower VHT compared to the no-toll baseline, levels unmatched by other pricing strategies. At the height of the AM peak, drivers pay up to $0.13/mile on average, though most links in the network remain untolled. Distance-based pricing is the most effective at reducing VMT (by 4%), but VHT reductions (of 6%) primarily stem from drivers selecting closer destinations, achieving only one-fourth the delay reduction of delay-based pricing. Across various implementations of delay- and distance-based pricing, the results suggest that spatial variations of tolls are far more important than temporal variations. Cordon tolls produce minimal impacts at the network-wide level, but offer substantial delay reductions inside the cordon. Other major findings include: 1) delay-based pricing increases trip-making during the PM peak period due to backward shifts in discretionary-activity start times by higher-income residents; and 2) tolls’ spatial impacts, including changes in network flows and tolls paid by residents, vary substantially between delay- and distance-based pricing strategies.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Acoustic-based monitoring and machine learning of component status for microreactor applications

This report provides a description and assessment of recent efforts to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models in order to enhance structural health monitoring capabilities for nuclear microreactors. With resilient embedded sensors in development by others supported by programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, the work described herein builds upon ongoing efforts to improve non-destructive testing technology that relates measured acoustic signatures to component stresses and/or structural defects, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning architectures. The experimental procedure remained similar to that developed for the previous year’s demonstration of damage detection by the authors, with the same damaged sample tested under similar applied stress conditions. Notably, a new mounting fixture was designed and implemented to improve measurement consistency and a more sophisticated laser Doppler vibrometer was employed to make high-fidelity vibration measurements. Two nominally identical sets of training data were collected for each experimental setup to better understand the repeatability of the experiment and to better test the generality of trained neural network models. Additionally, we obtained new high-quality 3D mode shapes of the damaged test article at various stress and excitation levels, providing greater insights into the physical response of the sample during testing. Previously, we demonstrated that a machine learning model based on a convolutional neural network can predict structural details of an artificially introduced interface (intact, rough cut, smooth cut), and the applied torque level. In this study, we have transitioned to graph-based neural network architectures to better develop and test a flexible framework that is more suitable to being transferred away from controlled benchtop experiments and into more applied settings where less-structured data inputs may be expected. In general, performance testing of a graph neural network on frequency-domain representations of the data indicates strong and consistent identification of test conditions for datasets recorded on damaged components. With goals of predicting damage location and other changing experimental conditions using limited datasets, predictive models using a graph neural network architecture correctly predicted the applied torque level with an accuracy of 85% using only a single measurement point and predicted within one torque level in 95% of test windows. Predictions of damage location had limited success due to the symmetry and minimal number of the damage scenarios presented during model training. Results were ambiguous as to whether the model could detect the location of the artificial damage, or if it was instead learning the location of a given measurement point on the part and subsequently detecting which points were closest to the location of the damage. This finding will be factored into upcoming planned work on damaged graphite components, where new experimental tests with a larger number and variety of damage scenarios are expected to provide improved validation of recent developments in monitoring methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting information for Few-Shot Learning Enables Population-Scale Analysis of Leaf Traits in Populus trichocarpa

In this work, we use few-shot learning to segment the body and vein architecture of P. trichocarpa leaves from high-resolution scans obtained in the UC Davis common garden. Leaf and vein segmentation are formulated as separate tasks, in which convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are used to iteratively expand partial segmentations until reaching stopping criteria. Our leaf and vein segmentation approaches use just 50 and 8 manually traced images for training, respectively, and are applied to a set of 2,634 top and bottom leaf scans. We show that both methods achieve high segmentation accuracy, in some cases exceeding even human-level segmentation. The leaf and vein segmentations are subsequently used to extract 68 morphological traits using traditional open-source image processing tools, which are validated using real-world physical measurements. For a biological perspective, we perform a genome-wide association study using the vein density trait to discover novel genetic architectures associated with multiple physiological processes relating to leaf development and function. In addition to sharing all of the few-shot learning code (see https://github.com/jlager/few-shot-leaf-segmentation), we are releasing all images, manual segmentations, model predictions, 68 extracted leaf phenotypes, and a new set of SNPs called against the v4 P. trichocarpa genome for 1,419 genotypes. The data folder includes all images, ground truth segmentations, predicted segmentations, and extracted leaf traits. All images encode the sample ID in the file name by indicating the treatment, block, row, position, and leaf side, respectively. For example, the file, C_1_1_2_bot.jpeg, indicates the control treatment, block 1, row 1, position 2, and the bottom side of the leaf. Tabulated results include position IDs as well as the corresponding genotype IDs. The images folder includes the 2,906 high-resolution leaf scans taken in the field. The leaf_masks folder includes 50 ground truth segmentations used for training the leaf tracing algorithm. The leaf_preds folder includes the 2,906 predicted segmentations from the leaf tracing algorithm. The vein_masks folder includes 8 ground truth segmentations used for training the vein growing algorithm. The vein_preds folder includes the 1,453 predicted segmentations from the vein growing algorithm. The vein_probs folder includes the 1,453 predicted probability maps from the vein growing algorithm before thresholding. The genomes folder includes the set of SNPs called against the v4 P. trichocarpa genome for 1,419 genotypes with a README file detailing the steps taken. The results folder includes: (i) raw values of the 68 predicted leaf traits in digital_traits.tsv, (ii) manually measured values of petiole length and width in manual_traits.tsv, (iii) thin plate spline (TPS) adjusted values of the vein density trait in vein_density_tps_adj.tsv, (iv) best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) adjusted values of the vein density trait in vein_density_blups.tsv, and (v) GWAS results for the vein density trait, including chromosome positions and corresponding P values, in gwas_results.csv.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗