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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability

In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

Lau, K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time Scale Dependence of the Meridional Coherence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability is suggested to be incoherent between the subpolar and subtropical gyres in the Atlantic on interannual and even decadal time scales, questioning the representativeness of AMOC variability at a single latitude in modern observation and paleoreconstruction. Paleoreconstructions of the Florida Current transport suggest that Florida Current variability is associated with the AMOC on the millennial time scale, but the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) mooring array suggests a weak correlation between the Florida Current and the AMOC. In this study, we investigate the meridional coherence of AMOC variability and the relationship between the Florida Current variability and the AMOC variability on different time scales in a transient 20,000-year simulation. We find that with the increase of time scales, the meridional coherence of the AMOC increases. On decadal and longer time scales, the coherent subtropical and subpolar AMOC is caused by the coherent buoyancy forcing in the subpolar gyre. Also, the Florida Current transport is highly correlated with AMOC variability on decadal and longer time scales, suggesting that observations of the Florida Current can be used to indicate AMOC variability on long time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tropical Pacific Ocean Dynamical Response to Short-Term Sulfate Aerosol Forcing

Abstract The large-scale and long-term climate impacts of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols consist of Northern Hemisphere cooling and a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. On interannual time scales, however, the response to aerosols is localized with a sizable imprint on local ocean–atmosphere interaction. A large concentration of anthropogenic sulfates over Asia may impact ENSO by modifying processes and interactions that generate this coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. Here, we use climate model experiments with different degrees of ocean–atmosphere coupling to study the tropical Pacific response to an abrupt increase in anthropogenic sulfates. These include an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to either a full-ocean GCM or a slab-ocean model, or simply forced by climatology of sea surface temperature. Comparing the responses helps differentiate between the fast atmospheric and slow ocean-mediated responses, and highlights the role of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the latter. We demonstrate the link between the Walker circulation and the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean dynamics in response to increased sulfate aerosols. The local surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols emitted over the Asian continent drives atmospheric subsidence over the equatorial west Pacific. The associated anomalous circulation imparts westerly momentum to the underlying Pacific Ocean, leading to an El Niño–like upper-ocean response and a transient warming of the east equatorial Pacific Ocean. The oceanic adjustment eventually contributes to its decay, giving rise to a damped oscillation of the tropical Pacific Ocean in response to abrupt anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Oceanic Observations

For many years, merchant ships and the naval fleets of various countries have been the major source of data over and in the open ocean. Oceanographic research experiments and process studies in the field have also contributed to the climatological data bases for the global ocean, but, for the most part, these have been limited in duration and extent. However, over the last 10 years under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program the role of the oceans in global and climate change has taken on increased significance. This has created a need for a considerably improved understanding of the seasonal, interannual, decadal and longer time-scale variability of the physical and biogeochemical attributes of the global ocean. As a result, over the past 10 years several major international field programs have been implemented and have had a tremendous impact on the number of in situ observations obtained for the global ocean. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) were designed with observational, modelling, and process study components aimed at analyzing different aspects of the ocean's role in the coupled climate system. In parallel with the field programs, continuous space-based observations of sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, and sea surface winds spanning nearly a decade or longer have become a reality. During this same time period, numerical ocean models and computational power have advanced to the point where the oceanographic observations, both in situ and remotely sensed, can be assimilated into numerical ocean models in order to provide a four-dimensional (x-y-z-t) depiction of the evolving state of the global ocean.

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth's atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone's abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone precursor emissions inspired us to produce this up-to-date overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. Much of the text is a synthesis of in situ and remotely sensed ozone observations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, but we also include some new and extended analyses using well-known and referenced datasets to draw connections between ozone trends and distributions in different regions of the world. In addition, we provide a brief evaluation of the accuracy of rural or remote surface ozone trends calculated by three state-of-the-science chemistry-climate models, the tools used by scientists to fill the gaps in our knowledge of global tropospheric ozone distribution and trends.

Mixing ratios↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ice-Over-Water Cloud Identification in an Artificial Neural Network Approach

An artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm, employing several Aqua MODIS channels, the retrieved cloud phase and total cloud visible optical depth, and temperature and humidity vertical profiles is trained to detect multilayer (ML) ice-over-water cloud systems identified by matched 2008 CloudSat and CALIPSO (CC) data. The trained MLANN was applied to 2009 MODIS data resulting in combined ML and single layer detection accuracies of 87% (89%) and 86% (89%) for snow-free (snow-covered) regions during the day and night, respectively. When corrected for the viewing-zenith-angle dependence of each parameter, the ML fraction detected is relatively invariant across the swath. Compared to the CC ML variability, the MLANN is robust seasonally and interannually, and produces similar distribution patterns over the globe, except in the polar regions. Additional research is needed to conclusively evaluate the VZA dependence and further improve the MLANN accuracy. This approach should greatly improve the monitoring of cloud vertical structure using operational passive sensors.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Satellite observations of sea ice

An overview is presented of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice studies using data from the Nimbus-5 ESMR and the Nimbus-7 SMMR passive microwave radiometers. Four years (1973-1976) of ESMR data for the Antarctic Ocean define the characteristics of the seasonal cycle including regional contrasts and interannual variations. Major advances include the discovery of the Weddell polynya and the presence of substantial areas of open water in the Antarctic winter pack ice. Regional differences in sea ice extent on time-scales of about a month are shown to be associated with variations in surface-wind fields. In the Arctic, the computation of sea ice concentration is complicated by the presence of multiyear ice, but the amount of multiyear ice becomes an important measurable quantity with dual-polarized, multifrequency passive microwave sensors. Analysis of SMMR data demonstrates its advantage for studying the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic ice cover. Large observed interannual variations in the distribution of the multiyear pack ice and the presence of significant divergent areas in the central Arctic during winter contrast markedly with the classical view of the Arctic pack ice.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. II - Model variability due to interactions between planetary waves, the mean circulation and gravity wave drag

The variability which arises in the GISS Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model on two time scales is reviewed: interannual standard deviations, derived from the five-year control run, and intraseasonal variability as exemplified by statospheric warnings. The model's extratropical variability for both mean fields and eddy statistics appears reasonable when compared with observations, while the tropical wind variability near the stratopause may be excessive possibly, due to inertial oscillations. Both wave 1 and wave 2 warmings develop, with connections to tropospheric forcing. Variability on both time scales results from a complex set of interactions among planetary waves, the mean circulation, and gravity wave drag. Specific examples of these interactions are presented, which imply that variability in gravity wave forcing and drag may be an important component of the variability of the middle atmosphere.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variations in Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Humidity: Understanding Tropical Convective and Dynamical Processes

Uncertainty remains as to what extent variability in mid to upper tropospheric moisture, especially over the tropics, behaves as constant relative humidity during interannual climate variations associated with ENSO. Systematic variations in HIRS 6.7 micron and MLS 205 GHz suggest that dry subtropical regions evolving during warm SST events depress relative humidity, but the interpretation of these events is still uncertain. Additional specific concerns have to do with regional signatures of convective processes: How does the origin of dry air in the eastern subtropical N. Pacific differ in ENSO warm versus cold years? The dynamics of Rossby wave forcing by convective heating, subtropical jet stream dynamics, and dynamics driven subsidence all come into play here. How variations in precipitating ice hydrometeors from tropical anvils relate to variations in UTH is also a subject of debate? Do variations in precipitating ice, cloud cover and water vapor behavior show any support for the Iris-hypothesis mechanism? Here we examine historical records of SSM/T-2 data to gain a better physical understanding of the effects of deep convective moisture sources and dynamically-induced vertical circulations on UTH. These high frequency microwave measurements (183.3 GHz) take advantage of far less sensitivity to cloud hydrometeors than the 6.7 micron data to yield a record of upper tropospheric relative humidity. Furthermore, signatures of precipitating ice from these channels facilitate comparisons to TRMM hydrometeors detected by radar. In analyzing these observations, we isolate water vapor and temperature change components that affect brightness temperatures and the inferred relative humidity. Trajectory modeling is also used to understand interannual humidity anomalies in terms of outflow fbm convective regions and history of diabatically-driven sinking which modifies relative humidity.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Humidity profiles over the ocean

The variabilities of atmospheric humidity profile over oceans from daily to interannual time scales were examined using 9 years of daily and semidaily radiosonde soundings at island stations extending from the Arctic to the South Pacific. The relative humidity profiles were found to have considerable temporal and geographic variabilities, contrary to the prevalent assumption. Principal component analysis on the profiles of specific humidity were used to examine the applicability of a relation between the surface-level humidity and the integrated water vapor; this relation has been used to estimate large-scale evaporation from satellite data. The first principal component was found to correlate almost perfectly with the integrated water vapor. The fractional variance represented by this mode increases with increasing period. It reaches approximately 90 percent at two weeks and decreases sharply, below one week, down to approximately 60 percent at the daily period. At low frequencies, the integrated water vapor appeared to be an adequate estimator of the humidity profile and the surface-level humidity. At periods shorter than a week, more than one independent estimator is needed.

Liu, W. T.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Seasonally contrasting responses of evapotranspiration to warming and elevated CO 2 in a semiarid grassland

Abstract Global climate change is expected to alter seasonal patterns and rates of evapotranspiration in dry regions. Although climate change will involve elevated CO 2 and increased temperatures, independently, these factors may have different impacts on actual evapotranspiration (AET) due to their opposing effects on transpiration. We used canopy gas exchange chambers to quantify AET in a semiarid grassland experimentally altered by elevated CO 2 and warming over 3 years with contrasting ambient precipitation. Seasonal and interannual variations in AET due to background climate variability were larger than the effects of climate manipulation treatments. However, in a year with average precipitation, cumulative growing season AET was suppressed by warming by 23%. Across years, warming increased AET early in the growing season and suppressed it later in the growing season. By contrast, elevated CO 2 suppressed AET early in the growing season and enhanced it later, but only in years with average or above‐average precipitation. Vegetation greenness (a proxy for photosynthetically active leaf area) was consistently the strongest predictor of AET, whereas soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit were secondary drivers. Our research demonstrates that effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 and temperature on AET will be mediated by plant phenological development and seasonal climatic conditions.

Sorokin, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Extremely Warm Early Winter 2000 in Europe: What is the Forcing

High variability characterizes the winter climate of central Europe: interannual fluctuations in the surface-air temperature as large as 18 C over large areas are fairly common. The extraordinary early-winter 2000 in Europe appears to be a departure to an unprecedented extreme of the existing climate patterns. Such anomalous events affect agriculture, forestry, fuel consumption, etc., and thus deserve in-depth analysis. Our analysis indicates that the high anomalies of the surface-air temperature are predominantly due to the southwesterly flow from the eastern North Atlantic, with a weak contribution by southerly flow from the western Mediterranean. Backward trajectories based on the SSM/I and NCEP Reanalysis datasets traced from west-central Europe indicate that the warm air masses flowing into Europe originate in the southern North Atlantic, where the surface-air temperatures exceed by 15c or more the climatic norms in Europe for late-November or early-December. Because such large ocean-to-continent temperature differences characterize the winter conditions, we refer to this episode which started in late November as occurring in the early winter. In this season, with the sun low over the horizon in Europe, absorption of insolation by the surface has little significance. The effect of cloudiness, a corollary to the low-level maritime-air advection, is a warming by a reduction of heat loss (greenhouse effect). In contrast, in the summer, clouds, by reducing absorption of insolation, produce a cooling, effect at the surface.

Otterman, J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitation regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Large-scale meteorological control on the spatial pattern of wintertime PM 2.5 pollution over China

The frequent episodes of severe air pollution over China during recent years have posed serious health threats to densely populated eastern China. Although several studies investigated the linkage between enhanced severity and frequency of air pol-lution and the large-scale weather patterns over China, the day-to-day covariability between them, as well as its local and remote mechanisms, has not been systemati-cally documented. The wintertime synoptic covariability between PM 2.5 and large-scale meteorological fields is studied using surface observations of PM 2.5 in 2013/2014–2016/2017 and ERA-Interim meteorological fields through maximum covariance analysis (MCA). The first MCA mode (MCA1) suggests a consistent accumulation of ambient PM 2.5 as a result of weakened winds that block the pollut-ant removal passage in heavily polluted areas of eastern China, as well as moist air from southeast coast favoring haze formation. A northeast–southwest belt that extends into northeastern China and central China on each end is more sensitive to MCA1. The second MCA mode (MCA2) shows a north–south dipole in PM 2.5 linked to the contrast of boundary layer height and surface wind speed between northern and southern regions of China. Spatial patterns of both modes are supported by the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model with realistic emission inventory. The spatial patterns of the two modes are robust on the interannual time scales. Based on that, we investigate the variability of the first two modes of the identified modes on the multidecadal scale by projecting GPM_500 pattern to 1981–2010. Correlation analysis of the projected time series and climate indices over 30 years indicates the possible linkage of Arctic oscillation, ENSO indices, Pacific decadal oscillation and east Atlantic/western Russia to regional air pollution patterns over China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

In situ results on the variation of neutral atmospheric hydrogen at Venus

The concentrations of neutral hydrogen, n(H), in the Venus atmosphere were derived from an ion and neutral charge exchange relationship involving O(+), H(+), O, and CO2, which were measured by OIMS and ONMS on board the Pioneer Venus for the period 1979-1980 covering three diurnal cycles of Venus. There was a persisting dawn bulge in the diurnal distribution of n(H), which peaked at levels near 5 x 10 to the 7th/cu cm at altitudes below 165 km. Large day-to-day variations of up to a factor of 5 in n(H) were frequently encountered, in addition to some local time variations in the bulge location. Although the appreciable short-term variability in n(H) makes precise assessment of the interannual variations difficult, no distinct evidence for interannual variation in n(H) was found. These results were confirmed by the facts that no significant interannual differences in n(H3) measured directly by ONMS were detected, and that only small (not more than 10 percent, decline) variations in the solar EUV flux were found in the 1979-1980 period.

Taylor, H. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Understanding the Role of Biology in the Global Environment: NASA'S Mission to Planet Earth

NASA has long used the unique perspective of space as a means of expanding our understanding of how the Earth's environment functions. In particular, the linkages between land, air, water, and life-the elements of the Earth system-are a focus for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. This approach, called Earth system science, blends together fields like meteorology, biology, oceanography, and atmospheric science. Mission to Planet Earth uses observations from satellites, aircraft, balloons, and ground researchers as the basis for analysis of the elements of the Earth system, the interactions between those elements, and possible changes over the coming years and decades. This information is helping scientists improve our understanding of how natural processes affect us and how we might be affecting them. Such studies will yield improved weather forecasts, tools for managing agriculture and forests, information for fishermen and local planners, and, eventually, an enhanced ability to predict how the climate will change in the future. NASA has designed Mission to Planet Earth to focus on five primary themes: Land Cover and Land Use Change; Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction; Natural Hazards; Long-Term Climate Variability; and Atmosphere Ozone.

Townsend, William F.↗