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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗

Application of Margin-Based Methods to Assess System Health

Health management of complex systems such as nuclear power plants is an essential task to guarantee system reliability. This task can be greatly enhanced by constantly monitoring asset status and performances and process such data (through anomaly detection, diagnostic, and prognostic computational algorithms) to identify asset degradation trends and faulty states. While such information and data are typically available for many of the assets, they are not propagated from the asset to the system level in order to identify the most critical assets and prioritize maintenance and surveillance activities. The main reason is driven by the fact that current reliability modeling techniques are inadequate to process such information/data. This is due to the nature of these techniques which are based on the concept of failure rate/probability that do not serve an operational context where quantitative asset health information is available. Simply stated, current reliability techniques serve a run-to-failure operational setting and not a predictive maintenance one where the goal is to perform maintenance and surveillance activities only when they are needed based on asset health. The risk informed asset management (RIAM) project is focusing on the development of a different kind of reliability modeling techniques designed to adequately serve a predictive operational setting. Such reliability techniques move aways from a failure rate/probability to a margin-based mindset where margin is here used as a metric to quantify asset health based only on current and past operational experience of the asset under consideration. In addition, margin-based reliability techniques are able to propagate asset health information from the component to system level and provide importance measure to each asset. This report summarizes a recent activity performed in collaboration with plant modernization pathway designed to integrate monitoring data into margin-based reliability models. Such activity focuses on a specific system of an existing nuclear power plant where large amount of historic monitoring data is used to monitor asset and system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regression Analysis with the Directed Infusion of Data

Integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning tools into industry necessitates large-scale collaborative efforts that ensure the robust and accurate execution of downstream analytics such as time series prediction, uncertainty quantification, grid optimization, and condition monitoring. However, concerns related to data privacy pervade the nuclear industry due to the proprietary nature of its data and the possibility of data leakage. Legacy techniques such as encryption often require the explicit transmission of data to trustworthy parties, thereby inviting data leakage concerns. The ideal collaboration scenario avoids the explicit dissemination of data/code while maintaining experimental fidelity, which is currently accomplished using various techniques such as trusted execution environments, homomorphic encryption, differential privacy, and multimatrix masking. These techniques, however, often necessitate a trade-off between trust, efficiency, and utility. This article extends a previously proposed technique called the directed infusion of data (DIOD) that ensures data privacy, allows for scalable obfuscation, and combats the risk of data leakage without compromising utility. The experiments discussed in this article examine a regression-type scenario using DIOD with the goal of preserving the inferential link between two variables. Using the point-kinetics equations, regression experiments compare the performance of a model trained using the original data to that of a model trained using the obfuscated data, which produced identical results. Our claim is further strengthened by an information theoretic proof and experiment, which showed that the inferential content between variables remains the same after obfuscation, thereby avoiding the required communication of the proprietary data.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Separable physics-informed DeepONet: Breaking the curse of dimensionality in physics-informed machine learning

The deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown remarkable potential in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) by mapping between infinite-dimensional function spaces using labeled datasets. However, in scenarios lacking labeled data, the physics-informed DeepONet (PI-DeepONet) approach, which utilizes the residual loss of the governing PDE to optimize the network parameters, faces significant computational challenges, particularly due to the curse of dimensionality. This limitation has hindered its application to high-dimensional problems, making even standard 3D spatial with 1D temporal problems computationally prohibitive. Additionally, the computational requirement increases exponentially with the discretization density of the domain. Here, to address these challenges and enhance scalability for high-dimensional PDEs, we introduce the Separable physics-informed DeepONet (Sep-PI-DeepONet). This framework employs a factorization technique, utilizing sub-networks for individual one-dimensional coordinates, thereby reducing the number of forward passes and the size of the Jacobian matrix required for gradient computations. By incorporating forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD), we further optimize computational efficiency, achieving linear scaling of computational cost with discretization density and dimensionality, making our approach highly suitable for high-dimensional PDEs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Sep-PI-DeepONet through three benchmark PDE models: the viscous Burgers’ equation, Biot’s consolidation theory, and a parameterized heat equation. Our framework maintains accuracy comparable to the conventional PI-DeepONet while reducing training time by two orders of magnitude. Notably, for the heat equation solved as a 4D problem, the conventional PI-DeepONet was computationally infeasible (estimated 289.35 h), while the Sep-PI-DeepONet completed training in just 2.5 h. These results underscore the potential of Sep-PI-DeepONet in efficiently solving complex, high-dimensional PDEs, marking a significant advancement in physics-informed machine learning.

Neural operator↗

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

FrESCO

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) monitors population level cancer trends as part of its Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. This program consists of state or regional level cancer registries which collect, analyze, and annotate cancer pathology reports. From these annotated pathology reports, each individual registry aggregates cancer phenotype information and summary statistics about cancer prevalence to facilitate population level monitoring of cancer incidence. Extracting cancer phenotype from these reports is a labor intensive task, requiring specialized knowledge about the reports and cancer. Automating this information extraction process from cancer pathology reports has the potential to improve not only the quality of the data by extracting information in a consistent manner across registries, but to improve the quality of patient outcomes by reducing the time to assimilate new data and enabling time-sensitive applications such as precision medicine. Here we present FrESCO: Framework for Exploring Scalable Computational Oncology, a modular deep-learning natural language processing (NLP) library for extracting pathology information from clinical text documents.

Spannaus, Adam [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oa↗

Machine Learning‐Augmented Molecular Dynamics Simulations (MD) Reveal Insights Into the Disconnect Between Affinity and Activation of ZTP Riboswitch Ligands

Abstract The challenge of targeting RNA with small molecules necessitates a better understanding of RNA–ligand interaction mechanisms. However, the dynamic nature of nucleic acids, their ligand‐induced stabilization, and how conformational changes influence gene expression pose significant difficulties for experimental investigation. This work employs a combination of computational and experimental methods to address these challenges. By integrating structure‐informed design, crystallography, and machine learning‐augmented all‐atom molecular dynamics simulations (MD), we synthesized, biophysically and biochemically characterized, and studied the dissociation of a library of small molecule activators of the 5‐aminoimidazole–4–carboxamide ribonucleotide triphosphate (ZTP) riboswitch, a ligand‐binding RNA motif that regulates bacterial gene expression. We uncovered key interaction mechanisms, revealing valuable insights into the role of ligand binding kinetics on riboswitch activation. Further, we established that ligand on‐rates determine activation potency as opposed to binding affinity and elucidated RNA structural differences, which provide mechanistic insights into the interplay of RNA structure on riboswitch activation.

Chemistry↗

Coupled continuum and network model framework to study catalyst layers of polymer electrolyte fuel cells

The nanostructured thin film (NSTF) catalyst layers which have demonstrated high power densities, mass activities, and exceptional metal and support stability can have limited operational robustness due to their thin thickness and the hydrophilicity of the metal-coated nano whiskers. The dispersed nanostructured thin film (dNSTF) catalyst layers have been developed by dispersing the NSTF Pt whiskers with ionomer and carbon support to increase the thickness and hydrophobicity. Continuum and network models (NM) are coupled through boundary conditions to study the polymer electrolyte fuel cell with a dNSTF cathode catalyst layer. The coupled model combines the computational efficiency of the continuum model with the pore-scale information in the dNSTF cathode catalyst layer of the NM. It captures the special morphology of the partially ionomer/water covered cylindrical whiskers, as well as water percolation through the pore structures and their impact on the cell performance. Here we observe optimal ionomer coverage on whiskers to be 0.5, ionomer to carbon ratio to be 0.9 and higher whisker to carbon ratios to be desired.

08 HYDROGEN↗

PhaseT3M: 3D imaging at 1.6 Å resolution via electron cryo-tomography with nonlinear phase retrieval

Electron cryo-tomography (cryo-ET) enables 3D imaging of complex, radiation-sensitive structures with molecular detail. However, image contrast from the interference of scattered electrons is nonlinear with atomic density and multiple scattering further complicates interpretation. These effects degrade resolution, particularly in conventional reconstruction algorithms, which assume linearity. Particle averaging can reduce such issues but is unsuitable for heterogeneous or dynamic samples ubiquitous in biology, chemistry, and materials sciences. Here, we develop a phase retrieval-based cryo-ET method, PhaseT3M. We experimentally demonstrate its application to an approximately 7 nm Co3O4 nanoparticle on an approximately 30 nm carbon substrate, achieving a maximum resolution of 1.6 Å, surpassing conventional limits using standard cryo-TEM equipment. PhaseT3M uses a multislice model for multiple scattering and Bayesian optimization for alignment and computational aberration correction, with a positivity constraint to recover ‘missing wedge’ information. Applied directly to biological particles, it enhances reconstruction quality and reduces artifacts, establishing a standard for routine 3D imaging with phase contrast.

Biophysics↗

Unsupervised machine learning for unbiased chemical classification in X-ray absorption spectroscopy and X-ray emission spectroscopy

Here we report a comprehensive computational study of unsupervised machine learning for extraction of chemically relevant information in X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) and in valence-to-core X-ray emission spectra (VtC-XES) for classification of a broad ensemble of sulphorganic molecules. By progressively decreasing the constraining assumptions of the unsupervised machine learning algorithm, moving from principal component analysis (PCA) to a variational autoencoder (VAE) to t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE), we find improved sensitivity to steadily more refined chemical information. Surprisingly, when embedding the ensemble of spectra in merely two dimensions, t-SNE distinguishes not just oxidation state and general sulphur bonding environment but also the aromaticity of the bonding radical group with 87% accuracy as well as identifying even finer details in electronic structure within aromatic or aliphatic sub-classes. We find that the chemical information in XANES and VtC-XES is very similar in character and content, although they unexpectedly have different sensitivity within a given molecular class. We also discuss likely benefits from further effort with unsupervised machine learning and from the interplay between supervised and unsupervised machine learning for X-ray spectroscopies. Our overall results, i.e., the ability to reliably classify without user bias and to discover unexpected chemical signatures for XANES and VtC-XES, likely generalize to other systems as well as to other one-dimensional chemical spectroscopies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fission of 240 Pu with Symmetry-Restored Density Functional Theory

Nuclear fission plays an important role in fundamental and applied science, from astrophysics to nuclear engineering, yet it remains a major challenge to nuclear theory. Theoretical methods used so far to compute fission observables rely on symmetry-breaking schemes where basic information on the number of particles, angular momentum, and parity of the fissioning nucleus is lost. In this letter, we analyze the impact of restoring broken symmetries in the benchmark case of 240 Pu.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗

YOLO11 to SAM2 pipeline for feature extraction from nuclear test films

The response to the effects of nuclear detonations is supported by models that describe the evolution of the nuclear fireball and cloud and the associated transport of active debris. Validation of those descriptions relies on data from the nuclear test operations. Video records of those events offer a rich source of information that was exploited to a limited extent in historic analyses. Computer vision and machine learning techniques are powerful tools that can be used to increase the number of measurements that can be obtained from those films. In this work, we apply computer vision techniques to automatically track the temporal evolution of the nuclear fireball. In particular, we apply You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) and Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2) in combination with minimal human intervention to digitized versions of the original nuclear test films. As part of the proposed workflow, the YOLO11 model is applied to films to determine bounding boxes for the fireball within each frame. These are then used as inputs to SAM2, which uses image segmentation to determine the fireball boundaries and their temporal evolution. We assess the accuracy of our approach by using it to determine the energy released during the Trinity nuclear test and comparing the results with previous analyses based on manual measurements.

Van Exel, Kimberly [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000877463894)↗

Preparing Precollege Students for the Second Quantum Revolution with Core Concepts in Quantum Information Science

After the passage of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative Act in December 2018, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) recently assembled an interagency working group and conducted a workshop titled “Key Concepts for Future Quantum Information Science Learners” that focused on identifying core concepts for future curricular and educator activities to help precollege students engage with quantum information science (QIS). Helping precollege students learn these key concepts in QIS is an effective approach to introducing them to the second quantum revolution and inspiring them to become future contributors in the growing field of quantum information science and technology as leaders in areas related to quantum computing, communication, and sensing. This paper is a call to precollege educators to contemplate including QIS concepts into their existing courses at appropriate levels and get involved in the development of curricular materials suitable for their students. Also, research shows that compare-and-contrast activities can provide an effective approach to helping students learn. Therefore, we illustrate a pedagogical approach that contrasts the classical and quantum concepts so that educators can adapt them for their students in their lesson plans to help them learn the differences between key concepts in quantum and classical contexts.

Education & Educational Research↗

Learning to Solve Large-Scale Security-Constrained Unit Commitment Problems

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a fundamental problem in power systems and electricity markets. In practical settings, SCUC is repeatedly solved via mixed-integer linear programming (MIP), sometimes multiple times per day, with only minor changes in input data. In this work, we propose a number of machine learning techniques to effectively extract information from previously solved instances in order to significantly improve the computational performance of MIP solvers when solving similar instances in the future. Based on statistical data, we predict redundant constraints in the formulation, good initial feasible solutions, and affine subspaces where the optimal solution is likely to lie, leading to a significant reduction in problem size. Computational results on a diverse set of realistic and large-scale instances show that using the proposed techniques, SCUC can be solved on average 4.3 times faster with optimality guarantees and 10.2 times faster without optimality guarantees, with no observed reduction in solution quality. Out-of-distribution experiments provide evidence that the method is somewhat robust against data-set shift. Summary of Contribution. The paper describes a novel computational method, based on a combination of mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and machine learning (ML), to solve a challenging and fundamental optimization problem in the energy sector. The method advances the state-of-the-art, not only for this particular problem, but also, more generally, in solving discrete optimization problems via ML. We expect that the techniques presented can be readily used by practitioners in the energy sector and adapted, by researchers in other fields, to other challenging operations research problems that are solved routinely.

Machine Learning↗

A Whirlwind History of Cryptography

This presentation provides an overview of cryptography starting with the Spartan Scytale used extensively during the Peloponnesian wars up through present day. Cryptography and cryptanalysis developed side by side in arms race. Algorithm development stagnated pending cracking. Once a method of crypto was cracked, development took off. Cryptography and cryptanalysis drove developments in math, linguistics, information theory, and quantum theory, and pushed development of the first computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LDRD 2022 Annual Report: Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program Activities

Each year, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is required to provide a report of its completed Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (LDRD) projects to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information in accordance with DOE Order 413.2C Chg1 (MinChg) dated August 2, 2018. This report provides a detailed look at the scientific and technical activities for each of the LDRD projects funded by BNL in FY 2022, in fulfillment of that requirement. In FY 2022, the BNL LDRD Program funded 70 projects, 30 of which were new starts, at a total cost of $17.2M. The investments that BNL makes in its LDRD program support the Laboratory’s strategic goals. BNL has identified seven scientific initiatives that define the Laboratory’s scientific future and that will enable it to realize its overall vision. This requires simultaneous excellence in all aspects of BNL’s work – from science and operations, to external partnerships with the local, state, and national communities, and beyond. This is enabled by safe, efficient, and secure operations; by an unwavering commitment to a diverse, equitable, and inclusive environment, including workforce development, both with staff and reaching out to the community; and by a strong focus on renewed infrastructure. The seven scientific initiatives are: 1) Nuclear Physics: uncover the structure of visible matter by constructing and operating the Electron-Ion Collider at BNL to maintain international leadership in nuclear physics for decades; 2) Clean Energy and Climate: support a net-zero U.S. economy through fundamental research in basic energy and climate sciences to revolutionize grid-scale storage, renewable integration, and the study of atmospheric processes with a new facility to improve climate predictability; 3) Quantum Information Science and Technology: discover new quantum materials to enhance quantum computers and develop an entanglement sharing quantum network as a prototype for the first quantum internet; 4) Discovery Science Driven by the Human-AI Facility Integration: revolutionize the operation of experiments across the sciences at user facilities and in core programs; 5) High Energy Physics: understand the origin of space and time with the ATLAS high luminosity upgrade at CERN and the future Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment; 6) Isotope Production: accelerate and expand isotope production to ensure the security of the Nation’s supply; 7) Accelerator Science and Technology: harness the cross-cutting accelerator science expertise at BNL to develop new facilities, improve and expand its user facilities, and promote the use of accelerators in industry. The funded projects support BNL’s seven scientific initiatives and priority programs as well as new areas of research and competencies at the Laboratory that are consistent with the Laboratory’s vision and mission. In total, these LDRD investments supported 43 postdoctoral researchers in whole or in part and resulted in 138 publications and 7 awards. This Program Activities Report represents the future of BNL science; it is an impressive body of exploratory work that investigates many scientific and technical directions in support of the DOE and BNL missions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗