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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS1990

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Lorius, C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Global change and carrying capacity: Implications for life on Earth

Determining the long-term number of people that the planet can support without irreversibly reducing its ability to support people in the future, i.e., the carrying capacity of the Earth, is an exceedingly complex problem. About all that is known for certain is that, with present and foreseeable technologies, the human population has already exceeded the capacity. The reduction in carrying capacity that can be expected to result from direct human impacts on resources and the environment and from our indirect impacts of the climate system is discussed. Global warming and modeling global change and food security are also discussed with respect to carrying capacity.

Ehrlich, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

How well can regional fluxes be derived from smaller-scale estimates?

Regional surface fluxes are essential lower boundary conditions for large scale numerical weather and climate models and are the elements of global budgets of important trace gases. Surface properties affecting the exchange of heat, moisture, momentum and trace gases vary with length scales from one meter to hundreds of km. A classical difficulty is that fluxes have been measured directly only at points or along lines. The process of scaling up observations limited in space and/or time to represent larger areas was done by assigning properties to surface classes and combining estimated or calculated fluxes using an area weighted average. It is not clear that a simple area weighted average is sufficient to produce the large scale from the small scale, chiefly due to the effect of internal boundary layers, nor is it known how important the uncertainty is to large scale model outcomes. Simultaneous aircraft and tower data obtained in the relatively simple terrain of the western Alaska tundra were used to determine the extent to which surface type variation can be related to fluxes of heat, moisture, and other properties. Surface type was classified as lake or land with aircraft borne infrared thermometer, and flight level heat and moisture fluxes were related to surface type. The magnitude and variety of sampling errors inherent in eddy correlation flux estimation place limits on how well any flux can be known even in simple geometries.

Moore, Kathleen E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

How well can regional fluxes be derived from smaller-scale estimates?

Regional surface fluxes are essential lower boundary conditions for large scale numerical weather and climate models and are the elements of global budgets of important trace gases. Surface properties affecting the exchange of heat, moisture, momentum and trace gases vary with length scales from one meter to hundreds of km. A classical difficulty is that fluxes have been measured directly only at points or along lines. The process of scaling up observations limited in space and/or time to represent larger areas was done by assigning properties to surface classes and combining estimated or calculated fluxes using an area weighted average. It is not clear that a simple area weighted average is sufficient to produce the large scale from the small scale, chiefly due to the effect of internal boundary layers, nor is it known how important the uncertainty is to large scale model outcomes. Simultaneous aircraft and tower data obtained in the relatively simple terrain of the western Alaska tundra were used to determine the extent to which surface type variation can be related to fluxes of heat, moisture, and other properties. Surface type was classified as lake or land with aircraft borne infrared thermometer, and flight level heat and moisture fluxes were related to surface type. The magnitude and variety of sampling errors inherent in eddy correlation flux estimation place limits on how well any flux can be known even in simple geometries.

Moore, Kathleen E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Martian valley networks: Origin by niveo-fluvial processes

The valley networks may hold the key to unlocking the paleoclimatic history of Mars. These enigmatic landforms may be regarded as the Martian equivalent of the Rosetta Stone. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of their origin and evolution is required. However, there is still no consensus among investigators regarding the formation (runoff vs. sapping) of these features. Recent climatic modeling precludes warm (0 degrees C) globally averaged surface temperatures prior to 2 b.y. when solar luminosity was 25-30 percent less than present levels. This paper advocates snowmelt as the dominant process responsible for the formation of the dendritic valley networks. Evidence for Martian snowfall and subsequent melt has been discussed in previous studies.

Rice, J. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1993

NASA high performance computing and communications program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's HPCC program is part of a new Presidential initiative aimed at producing a 1000-fold increase in supercomputing speed and a 100-fold improvement in available communications capability by 1997. As more advanced technologies are developed under the HPCC program, they will be used to solve NASA's 'Grand Challenge' problems, which include improving the design and simulation of advanced aerospace vehicles, allowing people at remote locations to communicate more effectively and share information, increasing scientist's abilities to model the Earth's climate and forecast global environmental trends, and improving the development of advanced spacecraft. NASA's HPCC program is organized into three projects which are unique to the agency's mission: the Computational Aerosciences (CAS) project, the Earth and Space Sciences (ESS) project, and the Remote Exploration and Experimentation (REE) project. An additional project, the Basic Research and Human Resources (BRHR) project exists to promote long term research in computer science and engineering and to increase the pool of trained personnel in a variety of scientific disciplines. This document presents an overview of the objectives and organization of these projects as well as summaries of individual research and development programs within each project.

Holcomb, Lee↗
NASA NTRS1994

NASA High Performance Computing and Communications program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's HPCC program is part of a new Presidential initiative aimed at producing a 1000-fold increase in supercomputing speed and a 1(X)-fold improvement in available communications capability by 1997. As more advanced technologies are developed under the HPCC program, they will be used to solve NASA's 'Grand Challenge' problems, which include improving the design and simulation of advanced aerospace vehicles, allowing people at remote locations to communicate more effectively and share information, increasing scientists' abilities to model the Earth's climate and forecast global environmental trends, and improving the development of advanced spacecraft. NASA's HPCC program is organized into three projects which are unique to the agency's mission: the Computational Aerosciences (CAS) project, the Earth and Space Sciences (ESS) project, and the Remote Exploration and Experimentation (REE) project. An additional project, the Basic Research and Human Resources (BRHR) project, exists to promote long term research in computer science and engineering and to increase the pool of trained personnel in a variety of scientific disciplines. This document presents an overview of the objectives and organization of these projects, as well as summaries of early accomplishments and the significance, status, and plans for individual research and development programs within each project. Areas of emphasis include benchmarking, testbeds, software and simulation methods.

Holcomb, Lee↗
NASA NTRS2001

Overview and Scientific Agenda of Global Precipitation Mission

This paper addresses the status of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. The GPM notional design involves a 9-member satellite constellation, one of which wilt be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (DFPR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other eight members of the constellation will be considered daughters of the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7 - 85 GHz ,frequency range - likely to include a combination of lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/Experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., SSM/I and AMSR-E & -F). The constellation is designed to provide no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe using sun-synchronous orbit architecture for the daughter satellites, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud-precipitation microphysical processes and the "training-calibrating" information for retrieval algorithms used on daughter satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community nations). The mission is expected to involve additional international participants, sister agencies to the mainstream space agencies, and a diverse collection scientists from academia, government, and the private sector, A critical element in understanding the scientific thinking which has motivated the GPM project is an understanding of what scientific problems TRMM has and has not been able to address and at what scales. The TRMM satellite broke important scientific ground because it carried to space an array of rain-sensitive instruments, two of which were specifically designed for physical precipitation retrieval. These were the 9-channel TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the 13.8 GHz Precipitation Radar (PR). By the same token, because TRMM is a single satellite in a low inclination, low altitude, non-sun-synchronous orbit, it cannot provide global coverage or regular diurnal sampling. These features are essential for many current scientific inquiries involving physical processes of climate and the global water cycle, the modeling of hydrometeorological-biogeochemical cycling, and coupled land-atmosphere/ocean-atmosphere exchanges. Moreover, TRMM has not been able to retrieve explicit properties of the drop size distribution (DSD), a final major barrier to making accurate rain measurements, because the single frequency TRMM radar cannot measure differential reflectivity. which is a minimal requirement for attacking rain retrieval within the framework of extinction cross-section-dependency. GPM is expected to surmount much of the DSD retrieval problem because its core satellite wilt have the capacity to make differential reflectivity measurements with its Ku-Ka band radar (13.6 - 35 GHz) called DFPR - being developed by NASDA/CRL in Japan. This paper will provide an overview of the above issues as well as present a discussion on the expected measurement improvements.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Challenges of cloud-prone and rainy areas remote sensing

Provide, from space, the first global survey of cloud profiles (height, thickness) and cloud physical properties (water, ice, precipitation) needed to evaluate and improve the way clouds, moisture and energy are represented in global models used for weather forecasts and climate prediction.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2010

MJO Signals in Latent Heating: Results from TRMM Retrievals

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant intraseasonal signal in the global tropical atmosphere. Almost all numerical climate models have difficulty to simulate realistic MJO. Four TRMM datasets of latent heating were diagnosed for signals in the MJO. In all four datasets, vertical structures of latent heating are dominated by two components, one deep with its peak above the melting level and one shallow with its peak below. Profiles of the two components are nearly ubiquitous in longitude, allowing a separation of the vertical and zonal/temporal variations when the latitudinal dependence is not considered. All four datasets exhibit robust MJO spectral signals in the deep component as eastward propagating spectral peaks centered at period of 50 days and zonal wavenumber 1, well distinguished from lower- and higher-frequency power and much stronger than the corresponding westward power. The shallow component shows similar but slightly less robust MJO spectral peaks. MJO signals were further extracted from a combination of band-pass (30 - 90 day) filtered deep and shallow components. Largest amplitudes of both deep and shallow components of the MJO are confined to the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. There is a local minimum in the deep components over the Maritime Continent. The shallow components of the MJO differ substantially among the four TRMM datasets in their detailed zonal distributions in the eastern hemisphere. In composites of the heating evolution through the life cycle of the MJO, the shallow components lead the deep ones in some datasets and at certain longitudes. In many respects, the four TRMM datasets agree well in their deep components, but not in their shallow components and the phase relations between the deep and shallow components. These results indicate that caution must be exercised in applications of these latent heating data.

Zhang, Chidong↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergistic and Collaborative Development Strategies for FV3 Powered Next Generation Unified Global Modeling System

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Finite-­Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) is a scalable and flexible dynamical core capable of both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations. FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 dynamic core has a long history of serving as the main engine for global atmospheric models at various Government and Academic Research Laboratories including NOAA: GFDL Climate Modeling Suite (AM4 (Atmosphere Modeling 4), CM4 (Climate Model 4) ESM4 (Earth System Model 4), Hiram (HIgh Resolution Atmospheric Model)); NASA: GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS); and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The three primary stakeholders in FV3 (GFDL, GMAO, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center - NOAA)) have embarked on synergistic and collaborative strategies with focus on the advancement of non-hydrostratic dynamic core, physics, chemistry, and data assimilation efforts, leveraging collective strengths of each of the partnering agencies. This talk presents the ongoing plans for model advancements at GFDL, GMAO and EMC, with special emphasis on contributions towards developing community based unified global modeling system for operational and research applications at respective organizations. Future plans include extending the collaborations to the development of earth system components including GMAO's aerosol chemistry models (GOCART/MAM (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport / Modal Aerosol Model)), Land Information System (LIS), and advanced data assimilation techniques; and GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) for transition to operations at NCEP.

Putman, William↗
DOE OSTI2020

Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs

Previous climate modeling studies demonstrate the ability of feedback-regulated, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering with injection at multiple independent latitudes to meet multiple simultaneous temperature-based objectives in the presence of anthropogenic climate change. However, the impacts of climate change are not limited to rising temperatures but also include changes in precipitation, loss of sea ice, and many more; knowing how a given geoengineering strategy will affect each of these climate metrics is vital to understanding the limits and trade-offs of geoengineering. Here, we first introduce a new method of visualizing the design space in which desired climate outcomes are represented by 2-D surfaces on a 3-D graph. Surface orientations represent how different injection choices influence that objective, and intersecting surfaces represent objectives which can be met simultaneously. Using this representation as a guide, we present simulations of two new strategies for feedback-regulated aerosol injection, using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – CESM1(WACCM). The first simultaneously manages global mean temperature, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent, while the second manages global mean precipitation, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent. Both simulations control the tropical precipitation centroid to within 5 % of the goal, and the latter controls global mean precipitation to within 1% of the goal. Additionally, the first simulation overcompensates sea ice, while the second undercompensates sea ice; all of these results are consistent with the expectations of our design space model. In addition to showing that precipitation-based climate metrics can be managed using feedback alongside other goals, our simulations validate the utility of our design space visualization in predicting our climate model behavior under a given geoengineering strategy, and together they help illustrate the fundamental limits and trade-offs of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations

Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.

Graf, HANS-F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The ICON-A model for direct QBO simulations on GPUs (version icon-cscs:baf28a514)

Abstract. Classical numerical models for the global atmosphere, as used for numerical weather forecasting or climate research, have been developed for conventional central processing unit (CPU) architectures. This hinders the employment of such models on current top-performing supercomputers, which achieve their computing power with hybrid architectures, mostly using graphics processing units (GPUs). Thus also scientific applications of such models are restricted to the lesser computer power of CPUs. Here we present the development of a GPU-enabled version of the ICON atmosphere model (ICON-A), motivated by a research project on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), a global-scale wind oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere that depends on a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves, which originates from tropical deep convection. Resolving the relevant scales, from a few kilometers to the size of the globe, is a formidable computational problem, which can only be realized now on top-performing supercomputers. This motivated porting ICON-A, in the specific configuration needed for the research project, in a first step to the GPU architecture of the Piz Daint computer at the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre and in a second step to the JUWELS Booster computer at the Forschungszentrum Jülich. On Piz Daint, the ported code achieves a single-node GPU vs. CPU speedup factor of 6.4 and allows for global experiments at a horizontal resolution of 5 km on 1024 computing nodes with 1 GPU per node with a turnover of 48 simulated days per day. On JUWELS Booster, the more modern hardware in combination with an upgraded code base allows for simulations at the same resolution on 128 computing nodes with 4 GPUs per node and a turnover of 133 simulated days per day. Additionally, the code still remains functional on CPUs, as is demonstrated by additional experiments on the Levante compute system at the German Climate Computing Center. While the application shows good weak scaling over the tested 16-fold increase in grid size and node count, making also higher resolved global simulations possible, the strong scaling on GPUs is relatively poor, which limits the options to increase turnover with more nodes. Initial experiments demonstrate that the ICON-A model can simulate downward-propagating QBO jets, which are driven by wave–mean flow interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗