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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Wind Technologies Market Report

Annual wind power capacity additions in the United States surged in 2015 and are projected to continue at a rapid clip in the coming five years. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—having been extended for several years (though with a phase-down schedule, described further on pages 68-69), as well as a myriad of state-level policies. Wind additions are also being driven by improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, yielding low power sales prices for utility, corporate, and other purchasers. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond the current PTC cycle remain uncertain: growth could be blunted by declining federal tax support, expectations for low natural gas prices, and modest electricity demand growth. This annual report—now in its tenth year—provides a detailed overview of developments and trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a particular focus on 2015. The report begins with an overview of key installation-related trends: trends in U.S. wind power capacity growth; how that growth compares to other countries and generation sources; the amount and percentage of wind energy in individual states; the status of offshore wind power development; and the quantity of proposed wind power capacity in various interconnection queues in the United States. Next, the report covers an array of wind power industry trends: developments in turbine manufacturer market share; manufacturing and supply-chain developments; wind turbine and component imports into and exports from the United States; project financing developments; and trends among wind power project owners and power purchasers. The report then turns to a summary of wind turbine technology trends: turbine size, hub height, rotor diameter, specific power, and IEC Class. After that, the report discusses wind power performance, cost, and pricing trends. In so doing, it describes trends in project performance, wind turbine transaction prices, installed project costs, and operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses. It also reviews the prices paid for wind power in the United States and how those prices compare to short-term wholesale electricity prices and forecasts of future natural gas prices. Next, the report examines policy and market factors impacting the domestic wind power market, including federal and state policy drivers as well as transmission and grid integration issues. The report concludes with a preview of possible near-term market developments. This edition of the annual report updates data presented in previous editions while highlighting key trends and important new developments from 2015. The report concentrates on larger, utility-scale wind turbines, defined here as individual turbines that exceed 100 kW in size.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals. Most analyses in volume 2 show potential for a substantial increase in biomass production with minimal or negligible environmental effects under the biomass supply constraints assumed in BT16. Although corn ethanol has been shown to achieve GHG emissions improvements over fossil fuels, cellulosic biomass shows further improvements in certain environmental indicators covered in this report. The harvest of agricultural and forestry residues generally shows the smallest contributions to changes in certain environmental indicators investigated. The scenarios show national-level net SOC gains. When expanding the system boundary in illustrative cases that consider biomass end use, reductions in GHG emissions are estimated for scenarios in which biomass—rather than oil, coal, and natural gas—is used to produce fuel, power, heat, and chemicals. Analyses of water quality reveal that there could be tradeoffs between biomass productivity and some water quality indicators, but better outcomes for both biomass productivity and water quality can be achieved with selected conservation practices. Biodiversity analyses show possible habitat benefits to some species, with other species showing potential adverse effects that may require additional safeguards. Increasing productivity of algae can reduce GHG emissions and water consumption associated with producing algal biomass, though the effects of water consumption are likely of greater concern in some regions than in others. Moreover, the effects of climate change on potential biomass production show gains and losses in yield among feedstocks across the continental United States. Key research gaps and priorities include actions that can enhance benefits and reduce potential for negative effects of increased biomass production. The results from this report will help DOE, the bioenergy industry, and other institutions continue important discussions on environmental effects and will help chart a path toward a more environmentally sustainable bioeconomy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Virginia Offshore Wind Technology Advancement Project (VOWTAP) DOE EE0005985 Final Technical Report Rev 1a

The primary purpose of the VOWTAP was to advance the offshore wind industry in the United States (U.S.) by demonstrating innovative technologies and process solutions that would establish offshore wind as a cost-effective renewable energy resource. The VOWTAP Team proposed to design, construct, and operate a 12 megawatt (MW) offshore wind facility located approximately 27 statute miles (mi) (24 nautical miles [nm], 43 kilometers [km]) off the coast of Virginia. The proposed Project would consist of two Alstom Haliade™ 150-6 MW turbines mounted on inward battered guide structures (IBGS), a 34.5-kilovolt (kV) alternating current (AC) submarine cable interconnecting the WTGs (inter-array cable), a 34.5-kV AC submarine transmission cable (export cable), and a 34.5 kV underground cable (onshore interconnection cable) that would connect the Project with existing Dominion infrastructure located in Virginia Beach, Virginia (Figure 1). Interconnection with the existing Dominion infrastructure would also require an onshore switch cabinet, a fiber optic cable, and new interconnection station to be located entirely within the boundaries of the Camp Pendleton State Military Reservation (Camp Pendleton). The VOWTAP balanced technology innovation with commercial readiness such that turbine operations were anticipated to commence by 2018. Dominion, as the leaseholder of the Virginia Wind Energy Area (WEA), anticipated leveraging lessons learned through the VOWTAP, and applying them to future commercial-scale offshore wind development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Feasibility Study for Battle Mountain Renewable Energy Park

The Feasibility Study for the Battle Mountain Renewable Energy Park project (“Feasibility Study”) will assess the feasibility, benefits and impacts of a 5 Mega Watt (MW) solar photovoltaic (PV) generating system (the “Solar Project” or “Energy Park”) on the Te-Moak Tribe of Western Shoshone Indians of Nevada Battle Mountain Colony in Battle Mountain, Nevada (NV). The Energy Park will provide power for export to utility off-takers and job training and employment for Tribal members and revenue for the Tribe. This Feasibility Study will be a collaborative effort between the Tribal government, consultants, Tribal members and stakeholders and will allow the Tribe to make informed decisions regarding the Solar Project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Water-carbon Links in a Tropical Forest: How Interbasin Groundwater Flow Affects Carbon Fluxes and Ecosystem Carbon Budgets

This report covers the outcomes from a quantitative, interdisciplinary field investigation of how carbon fluxes and budgets in a lowland tropical rainforest are affected by the discharge of old regional groundwater into streams, springs, and wetlands in the forest. The work was carried out in a lowland rainforest of Costa Rica, at La Selva Biological Station. The research shows that discharge of regional groundwater high in dissolved carbon dioxide represents a significant input of carbon to the rainforest "from below", an input that is on average larger than the carbon input "from above" from the atmosphere. A stream receiving discharge of regional groundwater had greatly elevated emissions of carbon dioxide (but not methane) to the overlying air, and elevated downstream export of carbon from its watershed with stream flow. The emission of deep geological carbon dioxide from stream water elevates the carbon dioxide concentrations in air above the streams. Carbon-14 tracing revealed the presence of geological carbon in the leaves and stems of some riparian plants near streams that receive inputs of regional groundwater. Also, discharge of regional groundwater is responsible for input of dissolved organic matter with distinctive chemistry to rainforest streams and wetlands. The discharge of regional groundwater in lowland surface waters has a major impact on the carbon cycle in this and likely other tropical and non-tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mexico's Geothermal Market Assessment Report

This report is intended to help U.S. companies in the geothermal sector understand potential business opportunities created by recent changes in the Mexican energy market and regulatory environment. can also provide a variety of technology products and services for export into the Mexican market. This report will help U.S. companies identify the many public and private sector stakeholders in the United States and Mexico, which can help U.S. companies navigate the new regulatory and permitting environment, build new partnerships, and identify vehicles for financial assistance and risk mitigation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Impacts of Changes to Nevada’s Net Metering Policy on the Financial Performance and Adoption of Distributed Photovoltaics

Net energy metering (NEM) is a billing mechanism that has historically compensated owners of distributed generation systems at retail rates for any electricity that they export back to the grid rather than consume on-site. NEM can significantly enhance the financial performance of distributed generation systems from the owner’s perspective. The following analysis was designed to illustrate the potential impact of NEM policy and tariff changes implemented in early 2016 in Nevada.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This report provides an update on the status Systems Assessment Task Force activities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Carbon Fiber Manufacturing Facility Siting and Policy Considerations: International Comparison

Carbon fiber is increasingly used in a wide variety of applications due largely to its superior material properties such as high strength-to-weight ratio. The current global carbon fiber manufacturing industry is predominately located in China, Europe, Japan, and the United States. The carbon fiber market is expected to expand significantly through 2024 and to require additional manufacturing capacity to meet demand. Carbon fiber manufacturing facilities can offer significant economic development and employment opportunities as exemplified by the $1 billion investment and 500 jobs expected at a new Toray plant in Moore, South Carolina. Though the market is expected to expand, it is unclear where new manufacturing facilities will locate to meet demand. This uncertainty stems from the lack of research evaluating how different nations with significant carbon fiber manufacturing capacity compare as it relates to certain manufacturing facility siting factors such as costs of labor and energy as well as policy directed at supporting carbon fiber development, domestic deployment, and exports. This report fills these gaps by evaluating the top carbon fiber manufacturing countries, including China, European Union countries, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. The report documents how the United States compares to these countries based on a range of manufacturing siting considerations and existing policies related to carbon fiber. It concludes with a discussion of various policy options the United States could adopt to both (1) increase the competitiveness of the United States as it relates to attracting new carbon fiber manufacturing and (2) foster broader end-use markets for deployment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Expanded North Slope of Alaska Crude Oil Production on Oil Flows in the Contiguous United States (Summary)

Crude oil produced on the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) is primarily transported on the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) to in-state refineries and the Valdez Marine Terminal in southern Alaska. From the Terminal, crude oil is loaded onto tankers and is transported to export markets or to three major locations along the U.S. West Coast: Anacortes-Ferndale area (Washington), San Francisco Bay area, and Los Angeles area. North Slope of Alaska production has decreased about 75% since the 1980s, which has reduced utilization of TAPS.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2017

Life-Cycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Water Consumption – Effects of Coal and Biomass Conversion to Liquid Fuels as Analyzed with the GREET Model

The vast reserves of coal in the U.S. provide a significant incentive for the development of processes for coal conversion to liquid fuels (CTL). Also, CTL using domestic coal can help move the U.S. toward greater energy independence and security. However, current conversion technologies are less economically competitive and generate greater greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than production of petroleum fuels. Altex Technologies Corporation (Altex, hereinafter) and Pennsylvania State University have developed a hybrid technology to produce jet fuel from a feedstock blend of coal and biomass. Collaborating with Altex, Argonne National Laboratory has expanded and used the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET®) model to assess the life-cycle GHG emissions and water consumption of this hybrid technology. Biomass feedstocks include corn stover, switchgrass, and wheat straw. The option of biomass densification (bales to pellets) is also evaluated in this study. The results show that the densification process generates additional GHG emissions as a result of additional biomass process energy demand. This process coproduces a large amount of char, and this study investigates two scenarios to treat char: landfill disposal (Char-LF) and combustion for combined heat and power (CHP). Since the CHP scenarios export excess heat and electricity as coproducts, two coproduct handling methods are used for well-to-wake (WTWa) analysis: displacement (Char-CHP-Disp) and energy allocation (Char-CHP-EnAllo). When the feedstock contains 15 wt% densified wheat straw and 85 wt% lignite coal, WTWa GHG emissions of the coal-and-biomass-to-liquid pathways are 116, 97, and 137 gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) under the Char-LF, Char-CHP-Disp, and Char-CHP-EnAllo scenarios, respectively, as compared to conventional jet fuel production at 84 gCO2e/MJ. WTWa water consumption values are 0.072, -0.046, and 0.044 gal/MJ for Char-LF, Char-CHP-Disp, and Char-CHP-EnAllo, respectively, as compared to conventional jet fuel production at 0.028 gal/MJ. To reach the break-even point of 84 gCO2e/MJ, under the assumptions of constant product yields and energy demands regardless of the share of biomass and coal feedstocks, 31 wt%, 23 wt%, and 53 wt% of the feedstock blend need to be biomass under the Char-LF, Char-CHP-Disp, and Char-CHP-EnAllo scenarios, respectively.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act as an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model-to-model interface for multiscale materials modeling

A low-level model-to-model interface is presented that will enable independent models to be linked into an integrated system of models. The interface is based on a standard set of functions that contain appropriate export and import schemas that enable models to be linked with no changes to the models themselves. These ideas are presented in the context of a specific multiscale material problem that couples atomistic-based molecular dynamics calculations to continuum calculations of fluid ow. These simulations will be used to examine the influence of interactions of the fluid with an adjacent solid on the fluid ow. The interface will also be examined by adding it to an already existing modeling code, Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) and comparing it with our own molecular dynamics code.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Flow Distribution Measurement Feasibility in Supercritical CO 2

Supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) is a fluid of interest for advanced power cycles that can reach thermal to electric energy conversion efficiencies of 50% or higher. Of particular interest for fossil-fired natural gas is the Allam cycle that captures nearly all CO 2 emissions and exports it as a fluid stream where it may be of value. The combustion process conditions are unlike any before realized with 90-95% CO 2 concentration, temperatures around 1000°C, and pressures near 300 bar. This work outlines the experimental feasibility of flow measurements to acquire the first known data in pure sCO 2 at similar but reduced temperature and pressure conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Printed Proliferation: The Implications of Additive Manufacturing and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

The growth of additive manufacturing as a disruptive technology poses nuclear proliferation concerns worthy of serious consideration. Additive manufacturing began in the early 1980s with technological advances in polymer manipulation, computer capabilities, and computer-aided design (CAD) modeling. It was originally limited to rapid prototyping; however, it eventually developed into a complete means of production that has slowly penetrated the consumer market. Today, additive manufacturing machines can produce complex and unique items in a vast array of materials including plastics, metals, and ceramics. These capabilities have democratized the manufacturing industry, allowing almost anyone to produce items as simple as cup holders or as complex as jet fuel nozzles. Additive manufacturing, or three-dimensional (3D) printing as it is commonly called, relies on CAD files created or shared by individuals with additive manufacturing machines to produce a 3D object from a digital model. This sharing of files means that a 3D object can be scanned or rendered as a CAD model in one country, and then downloaded and printed in another country, allowing items to be shared globally without physically crossing borders. The sharing of CAD files online has been a challenging task for the export controls regime to manage over the years, and additive manufacturing could make these transfers more common. In this sense, additive manufacturing is a disruptive technology not only within the manufacturing industry but also within the nuclear nonproliferation world. This paper provides an overview of additive manufacturing concerns of proliferation.

3D↗
DOE OSTI2018

Model Package Report: Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework Version 1.0

The purpose of the Central Plateau Vadose Zone (CPVZ) Geoframework model (GFM) is to provide a reasonable, consistent, and defensible three-dimensional (3D) representation of the vadose zone beneath the Central Plateau at the Hanford Site to support the Composite Analysis (CA) vadose zone contaminant fate and transport models. The GFM is a 3D representation of the subsurface geologic structure. From this 3D geologic model, exported results in the form of point, surface, and/or volumes are used as inputs to populate and assemble the various numerical model architectures, providing a 3D-layered grid that is consistent with the GFM. The objective of this report is to define the process used to produce a hydrostratigraphic model for the vadose zone beneath the Hanford Site Central Plateau and the corresponding CA domain.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Lignite-plus-Biomass to Synthetic Jet Fuel with CO2 Capture and Storage: Design, Cost, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis for a Near-Term First-of-a-Kind Demonstration Project and Prospective Future Commercial Plants

We report on a 30-month design study for a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) demonstration plant that would be built at a site near Meridian, Mississippi, to coprocess lignite coal and woody biomass into jet fuel. The design uses an oxygen-blown TRIG™ gasifier developed by KBR and Southern Company. Fischer-Tropsch conversion of the syngas produces synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) as the primary product, plus naphtha. Other co-products include electricity sold to the grid and CO 2 sold for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Previous studies have identified coprocessing of various coals and biomass with CO 2 capture as promising options for cost-competitive production of low net lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions synthetic fuels. The effort reported here goes beyond earlier studies in the level of detail in process design and cost estimation with the aim of improving the understanding of the economic prospects for lignite and woody biomass coprocessing systems. Key objectives in the design of the FOAK lignite/biomass-to-jet (LBJ) plant were to achieve net lifecycle GHG emissions for the SPK that are less than for conventional petroleum-derived jet fuel and to make process design and equipment selections such that the plant could be built and operated in the near term, e.g., before 2025. The process design was developed by researchers at Princeton University and the University of Queensland and validated by engineers at the WorleyParsons Group (WP). Commercial vendors provided design and cost estimates for several major plant components. Bare-erected capital costs and operating and maintenance costs were estimated by WP. The primary objective in building and operating the FOAK plant would be to demonstrate the technical viability of the LBJ concept as an essential first step toward launching commercial-scale plants in the longer term. With this in mind, the project team developed a set of principles to help guide the process design: the total plant cost should be less than 2 billion USD (to limit investment risk); the level of input biomass should be both proportionally significant to reflect biomass/lignite co-gasification and sufficient to achieve GHG emissions goals; process design decisions and vendor/equipment selections should prioritize the likelihood of technical success over minimizing the cost of jet fuel production. The resulting FOAK plant design capacity is 1,551 metric t/d (45.5% moisture) lignite and 556 t/d (43.3% moisture) biomass, for a total input of 295 MW HHV , of which 25% is biomass. The design output is 1,252 actual barrels per day of liquids, of which 80% is SPK (62.3 MW LHV ) and 20% is naphtha (13.9 MW LHV ). It exports 15 MW e of electricity after satisfying a 38 MW e onsite auxiliary load. Additional products are 1,326 t/d of pressurized pipeline-quality CO 2 and 49 t/day of sulfuric acid (93 wt% H 2 SO 4 ). With thinnings from sustainably-managed southern pine plantations as the biomass, and with captured CO 2 stored underground via EOR, the net lifecycle emissions for the SPK product are estimated to be about one-quarter of those for petroleum-derived jet fuel. The bare-erected cost (BEC) estimated by WP for this plant is 588 million USD (2015). The authors’ best estimate of total plant cost (TPC) is 1,230 million USD, arrived at by assuming engineering, procurement and construction management services (20% of BEC), process 5 contingencies (35% of BEC), and project contingencies (35% of the sum of all other costs, i.e., 35% of 1.55xBEC). Not surprisingly, an annual discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis determined that it would be impossible to generate a positive net present value (NPV) over a wide range in key input assumptions. An SPK production cost subsidy of nearly 400/bbl USD over a 20-year plant life would be required to achieve zero NPV under a baseline set of assumptions (including 3% real weighted average cost of capital and a levelized crude oil price of 80/bbl USD). Alternatively, a capital grant in excess of the TPC value would also achieve zero NPV. The poor financial results reflect the small scale of the plant, the design principle to prioritize technical success, the levels of contingencies appropriate for the relatively early stage of project development, and the first-of-a-kind nature of the plant. Technology innovations, learning via construction and operating experience, alternative plant configurations, and larger scale should improve economics of future plants. To help understand these prospects, a preliminary analysis of N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) plants was developed, but with the limitation that plants would use only equipment components that for the most part are already commercial today: consideration of advanced, not-yet-commercial technologies and of R&D-driven improvements in existing technologies were beyond the scope of this analysis. The analysis found that a variety of NOAK plant designs that coprocess lignite and woody biomass to make jet fuel are unlikely to be economically competitive without subsidy even in the presence of a high future carbon tax or equivalent greenhouse gas mitigation policy. This conclusion applies to process configurations and input biomass/lignite ratios that result in net GHG emissions as high as those for petroleum-derived jet fuel and as low as zero. In contrast, encouraging results were found for plants processing only biomass. The economics of these “BECCS” plants (biomass energy with CCS) improve dramatically with the strength of carbon mitigation policies because of their strongly negative net GHG emissions. These findings do not imply that coal/biomass coprocessing strategies for making synfuels with CCS are not economically promising – only that, in the case of lignite, much more than a 25% biomass coprocessing rate would be needed. However, our analysis shows that all such systems are unlikely to be economic in the absence of a strong carbon mitigation policy. Future R&D driven technological innovations could modify this conclusion. Among other R&D priorities, an emphasis on better understanding and reducing plant auxiliary loads is warranted.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of Expanding Natural Gas Use in Transportation

This report summarizes an analysis of the impacts of a successful expansion of natural gas use by the transportation sector. While natural gas has been successfully introduced into a few niche markets, it currently makes up a small fraction of transportation energy use. The barriers to expansion include several technical issues currently limiting the natural gas vehicle market . If research and development is successful in addressing these technical challenges, there could be a significant shift to natural gas vehicles. With the increased production of cheap natural gas, the Energy Information Administration within the U.S. Department of Energy projects a surplus production of 5.56 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to be exported in 2050. The analysis presented in this report shows that up to 3.40 trillion cubic feet of this surplus could be used by a set of selected transportation modes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗