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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2026

A large-scale benchmarking of deterministic and stochastic derivative-free optimization algorithms

This presentation summarizes our work in the PrOMMiS project on benchmarking of data-driven optimization algorithms and their applications in self-driving laboratories. This work supports the broader project goal of accelerating the identification of promising separation methods and operating conditions for critical minerals separation processes. We present a systematic benchmarking study of 42 data-driven optimization algorithms on a broad collection of 502 test problems. The results identify BAM, GLCCLUSTER, and MULTIMIN as the most effective optimization solvers, with BAM showing the highest overall performance and solving more than 80% of the benchmark problems. The study also shows that no single solver consistently outperforms the others across all problem types, indicating that our future laboratory applications may benefit from using a small set of strong solvers rather than relying on a single method. The presentation also illustrates an in-silico chemical reactor case study showing that data-driven optimization methods can guide autonomous experimentation in a self-driving laboratory and identify optimal operating conditions within a small number of experiments. Overall, the results provide a basis for selecting efficient optimization methods and demonstrate the practical use of data-driven optimization in self-driving laboratory workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Fidelity Heavy-Duty Vehicle Modeling Using Sparse Telematics Data

Heavy-duty commercial vehicles consume a significant amount of energy due to their large size and mass, directly leading to vehicle operators prioritizing energy efficiency to reduce operational costs and comply with environmental regulations. One tool that can be used for the evaluation of energy efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles is the evaluation of energy efficiency using vehicle modeling and simulation. Simulation provides a path for energy efficiency improvement by allowing rapid experimentation of different vehicle characteristics on fuel consumption without the need for costly physical prototyping. The research presented in this paper focuses on using real-world, sparsely sampled telematics data from a large fleet of heavy-duty vehicles to create high-fidelity models for simulation. Samples in the telematics dataset are collected sporadically, resulting in sparse data with an infrequent and irregular sampling rate. Captured in the dataset was geospatial information, time series measurements, and vehicle-specific metadata from a subset of 96 vehicles from varied geographic regions across North America. A series of custom algorithms was developed to process vehicle data and derive both vehicle model input parameters and representative drive cycles. Derived models provide a basis on which to simulate real-world vehicles and iterate on vehicle aerodynamics, auxiliary power loads, transmission shift schedules, and other parameters to achieve reduced fuel consumption and increase energy efficiency. Notably, these models were developed without the use of expensive field data collection, using only data collected through fleet telematics. Processed representative drive cycles are used to validate the fuel economy of derived models. The models developed through this research allow for more representative vehicle simulations with increased flexibility regarding vehicle-to-vehicle variations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced models for ETG transport in the tokamak pedestal

This paper reports on the development of reduced models for electron temperature gradient (ETG) driven transport in the pedestal. Model development is enabled by a set of 61 nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations with input parameters taken from pedestals in a broad range of experimental scenarios. The simulation data have been consolidated in a new database for gyrokinetic simulation data, the multiscale gyrokinetic database (MGKDB), facilitating the analysis. The modeling approach may be considered a generalization of the standard quasilinear mixing length procedure. The parameter η, the ratio of the density to temperature gradient scale length, emerges as the key parameter for formulating an effective saturation rule. With a single order-unity fitting coefficient, the model achieves an error of 15%. A similar model for ETG particle flux is also described. We also present simple algebraic expressions for the transport informed by an algorithm for symbolic regression.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A cross-study analysis of drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Abstract To enable personalized cancer treatment, machine learning models have been developed to predict drug response as a function of tumor and drug features. However, most algorithm development efforts have relied on cross-validation within a single study to assess model accuracy. While an essential first step, cross-validation within a biological data set typically provides an overly optimistic estimate of the prediction performance on independent test sets. To provide a more rigorous assessment of model generalizability between different studies, we use machine learning to analyze five publicly available cell line-based data sets: National Cancer Institute 60, ancer Therapeutics Response Portal (CTRP), Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer, Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia and Genentech Cell Line Screening Initiative (gCSI). Based on observed experimental variability across studies, we explore estimates of prediction upper bounds. We report performance results of a variety of machine learning models, with a multitasking deep neural network achieving the best cross-study generalizability. By multiple measures, models trained on CTRP yield the most accurate predictions on the remaining testing data, and gCSI is the most predictable among the cell line data sets included in this study. With these experiments and further simulations on partial data, two lessons emerge: (1) differences in viability assays can limit model generalizability across studies and (2) drug diversity, more than tumor diversity, is crucial for raising model generalizability in preclinical screening.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the effect of hydride microstructure on zirconium alloys embrittlement using image analysis

Since hydride microstructure can significantly influence Zr alloy nuclear fuel cladding’s ductility, a new metric has been developed to quantify hydride microstructure in 2D micrographs and relate it to crack propagation. As cladding failure usually results from a hoop stress, this new metric, called the Radial Hydride Continuous Path (RHCP), is based on quantifying the continuity of brittle hydride particles along the radial direction of the cladding tube. Compared to previous metrics, this approach more closely relates to the propensity of a crack to propagate radially through the cladding tube thickness. The RHCP takes into account hydride length, orientation, and connectivity to choose the optimal path for crack propagation through the cladding thickness. The RHCP can therefore be more closely linked to hydride embrittlement of the Zr alloy material, thus creating a relationship between material structure, properties, and performance. The new definition, along with previously proposed metrics such as the Radial Hydride Fraction (RHF), the Hydride Continuity Coefficient (HCC), and the Radial Hydride Continuity Factor (RHCF), have been implemented and automated in MATLAB. These codes are made available with this publication as supplementary materials. These metrics were verified by comparing their predictions of hydride morphology against expected values in simple cases, and the implementation of the new metric was validated by comparing its predictions with manual measurements of hydride microstructure performed on ImageJ. The RHCP was also validated against experimental measurements of fracture behavior and it was shown to correlate with cladding failure better than previous metrics. The information provided by these metrics will help accurately assess cladding integrity during operation, transportation, and storage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anomaly Detection and Mitigation in FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control Systems using Machine Learning

With the increasing deployment of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices in wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for achieving improved voltage stability of bulk power systems, the possibility for cyber attacks on these systems is also increasing. Successful stealthy cyber attacks that are difficult to detect by traditional informational technology (IT)-based cybersecurity solutions or threshold-based bad data detectors can lead to a voltage collapse in power grid. This paper presents the testbed-based attacks implementation and real-time evaluation of machine learning (ML) algorithm for detecting and mitigating stealthy cyber attacks on FACTS-based WAVCS on a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed. Initially, we discuss the implementation of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) that controls a Static VAR Compensator (SVC) device deployed in a two-area four-machine Kundur power system for improving transient voltage stability. Later, the ML-based Anomaly Detection and Mitigation (ADM) system is implemented on the cyber-physical HIL testbed to detect and mitigate various stealthy cyber attacks, which are injected in real-time over the wide-area network (WAN). The experimental results show accurate and effective performance of ADM system in detecting and mitigating anomalies while keeping the grid stable and within the system operating limits, as defined by the North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved melt model for power flow

Accelerators that drive z-pinch experiments transport current densities in excess of 1 MA/cm 2 in order to melt or ionize the target and implode it on axis. These high current densities stress the transmission lines upstream from the target, where rapid electrode heating causes plasma formation, melt, and possibly vaporization. These plasmas negatively impact accelerator efficiency by diverting some portion of the current away from the target, referred to as “current loss”. Simulations that are able to reproduce this behavior may be applied to improving the efficiency of existing accelerators and to designing systems operating at ever higher current densities. The relativistic particle-in-cell code CHICAGO ® is the primary code for modeling power flow on Sandia National Laboratories’ Z accelerator. We report here on new algorithms that incorporate vaporization and melt into the standard power-flow simulation framework. Taking a hybrid approach, the CHICAGO® kinetic/multi-fluid treatment has been expanded to include vaporization while the quasi-neutral equation-of-motion has been updated for melt at high current-densities. For vaporization, a new one-dimensional substrate model provides a more accurate calculation of electrode thermal, mass, and magnetic field diffusion as well as a means of emitting absorbed contaminants and vaporized metal ions. A quasi-fluid model has been implemented expressly to mimic the motion of imploding liners for accurate inductance histories. For melt, a multi-ion Hall-MHD option has been implemented and benchmarked against Alegra MHD. This new model is described with sufficient detail to reproduce these algorithms in any hybrid kinetic code. Physics results from the new code are also presented. A CHICAGO ® Hall-MHD simulation of a radial transmission line demonstrates that Hall physics, not included in Alegra, has no significant impact on the diffusion of electrode material. When surface contaminant desorption is mocked in as a hydrogen surface plasma, both the surface and bulk-material plasmas largely compress under the influence of the j × B force. Similar results are seen in Alegra, which also shows magnetic and material diffusion scaling with peak current. Test vaporization simulations using MagLIF and a power-flow experimental geometry show Fe + ions diffuse only a few hundred µm from the electrodes, so present models of Z power flow remain valid.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel tools and observables for jet physics in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Studies of fully-reconstructed jets in heavy-ion collisions aim at extracting thermodynamical and transport properties of hot and dense QCD matter. Recently, a plethora of new jet substructure observables have been theoretically and experimentally developed that provide novel precise insights on the modifications of the parton radiation pattern induced by a QCD medium. This report, summarizing the main lines of discussion at the 5th Heavy Ion Jet Workshop and CERN TH institute ‘Novel tools and observables for jet physics in heavy-ion collisions’ in 2017, presents a first attempt at outlining a strategy for isolating and identifying the relevant physical processes that are responsible for the observed medium-induced jet modifications. These studies combine theory insights, based on the Lund parton splitting map, with sophisticated jet reconstruction techniques, including grooming and background subtraction algorithms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reproduced Computational Results Report for “Ginkgo: A Modern Linear Operator Algebra Framework for High Performance Computing”

The article titled “Ginkgo: A Modern Linear Operator Algebra Framework for High Performance Computing” by Anzt et al. presents a modern, linear operator centric, C++ library for sparse linear algebra. Experimental results in the article demonstrate that Ginkgo is a flexible and user-friendly framework capable of achieving high-performance on state-of-the-art GPU architectures. In this report, the Ginkgo library is installed and a subset of the experimental results are reproduced. Specifically, the experiment that shows the achieved memory bandwidth of the Ginkgo Krylov linear solvers on NVIDIA A100 and AMD MI100 GPUs is redone and the results are compared to what presented in the published article. Upon completion of the comparison, the published results are deemed reproducible.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal resource allocation for flexible-grid entanglement distribution networks

We use a genetic algorithm (GA) as a design aid for determining the optimal provisioning of entangled photon spectrum in flex-grid quantum networks with arbitrary numbers of channels and users. After introducing a general model for entanglement distribution based on frequency-polarization hyperentangled biphotons, we derive upper bounds on fidelity and entangled bit rate for networks comprising one-to-one user connections. Simple conditions based on user detector quality and link efficiencies are found that determine whether entanglement is possible. We successfully apply a GA to find optimal resource allocations in four different representative network scenarios and validate features of our model experimentally in a quantum local area network in deployed fiber. Our results show promise for the rapid design of large-scale entanglement distribution networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uniform-in-phase-space data selection with iterative normalizing flows

Improvements in computational and experimental capabilities are rapidly increasing the amount of scientific data that are routinely generated. In applications that are constrained by memory and computational intensity, excessively large datasets may hinder scientific discovery, making data reduction a critical component of data-driven methods. Datasets are growing in two directions: the number of data points and their dimensionality. Whereas dimension reduction typically aims at describing each data sample on lower-dimensional space, the focus here is on reducing the number of data points. A strategy is proposed to select data points such that they uniformly span the phase-space of the data. The algorithm proposed relies on estimating the probability map of the data and using it to construct an acceptance probability. An iterative method is used to accurately estimate the probability of the rare data points when only a small subset of the dataset is used to construct the probability map. Instead of binning the phase-space to estimate the probability map, its functional form is approximated with a normalizing flow. Therefore, the method naturally extends to high-dimensional datasets. The proposed framework is demonstrated as a viable pathway to enable data-efficient machine learning when abundant data are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primary track recovery in high-definition gas time projection chambers

Abstract We develop and validate a new algorithm called primary track recovery () that effectively deconvolves known physics and detector effects from nuclear recoil tracks in gas time projection chambers (TPCs) with high-resolution readout. This gives access to the primary track charge, length, and vector direction (helping to resolve the “head-tail” ambiguity). Additionally, provides a measurement of the transverse and longitudinal diffusion widths, which can be used to determine the absolute position of tracks in the drift direction for detector fiducialization. Using simulated helium recoils in an atmospheric pressure TPC with a 70:30 mixture of $$\hbox {He:CO}_2$$ He:CO 2 we compare the performance of to traditional methods for all key track variables. We find that the algorithm reduces reconstruction errors, including those caused by charge integration, for tracks with mean length-to-width ratios 1.4 and above, corresponding to recoil energies of 20 keV and above in the studied TPCs. We show that improves on existing methods for head-tail disambiguation, particularly for highly inclined tracks, and improves the determination of the absolute position of recoils on the drift axis via transverse diffusion. We find that can partially recover charge structure integrated out by the detector in the z direction, but that its determination of energy and length have worse resolution compared to existing methods. We use experimental data to qualitatively verify these findings and discuss implications for future directional detectors at the low-energy frontier.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 2 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version v2-1 Level 2 (L2) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Level 2 (L2) data consist of sensor observations from the COMPASS-FME synoptic sites, TEMPEST, and DELUGE. Compared to the L1 data, these are more consistent (always 15-minute timestamps for the entire year); better QA/QC’d (out of bounds, out of service, and extreme outlier values are removed); and more complete, with a gap-filled time series available alongside the main observations, and additional derived (calculated) variables. L2 data are intended to be rapidly and easily usable in analyses and simulations. However, algorithmic outlier identification always carries the risk of removing valid data, and Level 1 data may be more suitable for analyses that focus on variability or extreme events. This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific Parquet (a high performance, space efficient format; see https://parquet.apache.org) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are reported every 15 minutes. Please see v2-1 TEMPEST L2 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning. Data files are in Apache Parquet, a high performance, space efficient format for tabular data. These files can be read using R's `arrow` package (https://arrow.apache.org/docs/r/), with similar tools available in other languages. The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods. * Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021 * TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022 * TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023 * TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent Experiments through Real-Time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for High-Energy Nuclear Experiments

The aim of this project is to develop software and hardware for fast real-time data processing and autonomous detector control and calibration for the sPHENIX and the future EIC experiments. Below summarizes Georgia Tech team efforts in the past year: 1. We developed a real-time clustering algorithm and FPGA-based pipeline architecture for processing fired pixel data from ALPIDE sensors in sPHENIX experiments. Our Columnar Clustering Co-Design introduces a hardware-aware, stream-friendly approach that segments pixel data by column pairs using a Column Pair Clustering (CPC) strategy, followed by Cluster Stitching to merge adjacent subclusters. Implemented in Vitis HLS, the pipeline comprises five stages—read-in, subclustering, stitching, analysis, and write-out—connected by tagged HLS streams with custom end-of-event signaling for robust synchronization. We designed a pipelined dataflow model optimized for throughput, low latency, and minimal buffering, enabling scalable clustering across events of arbitrary size. Our system maintains spatial precision via center-of-mass and shape key extraction and efficiently handles edge cases such as fragmented or nested clusters. Compared against DBSCAN in both software and hardware, our approach demonstrates competitive performance under FPGA constraints. 2. We also conducted a comprehensive algorithm-to-hardware co-design of connected component analysis tailored for sPHENIX experiments, focusing on real-time, low-latency processing using FPGAs and High-Level Synthesis (HLS). Starting from a Python-based particle tracking pipeline, the team translated the core logic—graph traversal via DFS and Union-Find—into an HLS-compatible C++ model, replacing dynamic memory and recursion with static arrays and pipelined control flow. The final design includes a fully streamed and dataflow-compatible Union-Find kernel optimized across five iterations, incorporating loop pipelining, array partitioning, AXI/FIFO interface tuning, and function flattening. Experimental results show up to 14.8× speedup over the CPU baseline, reducing per-graph latency to 1.58 μs and demonstrating strong resource efficiency with only ~7k LUTs and zero BRAM usage. The design maintains functional correctness against the Python reference using a Python-based C-simulation framework and Mean Squared Error metrics. This work validates the potential of HLS-driven FPGA designs for edge-level HEP data acquisition, laying a scalable foundation for future integration with real-time detector pipelines and multi-graph processing systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient use of quantum computers for collider physics

Most observables at particle colliders involve physics at a wide variety of distance scales. Due to asymptotic freedom of the strong interaction, the physics at short distances can be calculated reliably using perturbative techniques, while long distance physics is non-perturbative in nature. Factorization theorems separate the contributions from different scales, allowing to identify the pieces that can be determined perturbatively from those that require non-perturbative information, and if the non-perturbative pieces can be reliably determined, one can use experimental measurements to extract the short distance effects, sensitive to possible new physics. Without the ability to compute the non-perturbative ingredients from first principles one typically identifies observables for which the non-perturbative information is universal in the sense that it can be extracted from some experimental observables and then used to predict other observables. In this paper we argue that the future ability to use quantum computers to calculate non-perturbative matrix elements from first principles will allow to make predictions for observables with non-universal non-perturbative long-distance physics.

Algorithms and Theoretical Developments↗