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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Statistical Assessment of Cetacean Stranding Events in Cape Cod Area

Cetacean (whales, dolphins and porpoises) mass strandings are a longstanding mystery in the field of marine biology that continue to be recorded in coastal environments around the world. For each of these events, anywhere from a few to several hundred otherwise healthy animals strand in onshore environments, often for no apparent reason. While the causes of these events remain unclear, anthropogenic and naturogenic mechanisms have been suggested. We present results of an inter-disciplinary study that draws expertise from space weather, marine mammal biology and ecology, and marine mammal stranding response. This study assessed 16 years of cetacean stranding events in the Cape Cod (Massachusetts, USA) area concurrently with a large dataset of meteorological, geophysical, biological, oceanographic and space weather data to produce inferences about possible causes for these unexplained events.

Dolphi↗

Identifying mitigation strategies for $\mathrm{COVID}$-$\mathrm{19}$ superspreading on flights using models that account for passenger movement

Despite commercial airlines mandating masks, there have been multiple documented events of COVID-19 superspreading on flights. Conventional models do not adequately explain superspreading patterns on flights, with infection spread wider than expected from proximity based on passenger seating. An important reason for this is that models typically do not consider the movement of passengers during the flight, boarding, or deplaning. Understanding the risks for each of these aspects could provide insight into effective mitigation measures. We modeled infection risk from seating and fine-grained movement patterns – boarding, deplaning, and inflight movement. We estimated infection model parameters from a prior superspreading event. We validated the model and the impact of interventions using available data from three flights, including cabin layout and seat locations of infected and uninfected passengers, to suggest interventions to mitigate COVID-19 superspreading events during air travel. Specifically, we studied: 1) London to Hanoi with 201 passengers, including 13 secondary infections among passengers; 2) Singapore to Hangzhou with 321 passengers, including 12 to 14 secondary infections; 3) a non-superspreading event on a private jet in Japan with 9 passengers and no secondary infections. Here our results show that the inclusion of passenger movement better explains the infection spread patterns than conventional models do. We also found that FFP2/N95 mask usage would have reduced infection by 95–100%, while cloth masks would have reduced it by only 40–80%. Results indicate that leaving the middle seat vacant is effective in reducing infection, and the effectiveness increases when combined with good quality masks. However, with a good mask, the risk is quite low even without the middle seats being empty. Our results suggest the need for more stringent guidelines to reduce aviation-related superspreading events of COVID-19.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Severe Weather Impact Assessment and Monitoring using Synthetic Aperture Radar and Auxiliary Data

Remote sensing datasets, particularly acquired by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, have become increasingly important in severe weather disaster impact studies given their ability to observe the Earth largely irrespective of weather and sunlight conditions. The reliability of existing SAR change detection products applied on a pair of SAR images is constrained by the limitation of current methods to differentiate and classify disaster specific changes from anthropogenic surface alterations. Moreover, the inherent properties of the sensors, variations in SAR backscatter due to changes in surface conditions, and other factors exacerbate these limitations. We proposed a novel procedure expanding on earlier SAR-based change detection methods to exclude anthropogenic alterations and other sources of ambiguity that might lead to inaccurate mapping of the impacts of severe weather disasters. We applied the proposed procedure that is based on long term interferometric and amplitude-based change detection analyses of Sentinel- 1 SAR imagery to two study sites recently impacted by severe weather disasters (Flooding post severe weather events in urban centers; Hailstorm damage on crops). For the first case study, Sentinel-1 SLC scenes from two flood events in the Houston area (April 2016 flooding event and Hurricane Harvey of August-September 2017) were used to construct a flood map depicting areas repeatedly affected by the flood. Pixels with consistent coherence values in the pre-disaster coherence stack were retained for comparison with the pre- and post-disaster coherence stack and pixels with significant decline (greater than 60%) in coherence values were retained in the final flood map. The findings of the applied technique were calibrated and validated through datasets from NOAA/NWS Service storm reports, aerial imaging (NOAA and Civil Air Patrol), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reporting, and targeted collections of NASA’s L-band UAVSAR data. Findings and products derived from the adopted methodology can be useful in disaster response and mitigation activities.

Gebremichael, Esayas↗

The Swift Project Contamination Control Program: A Case study of Balancing Cost, Schedule and Risk

The Swift Observatory will be launched in early 2004 to examine the dynamic process of gamma ray burst (GRB) events. The multi-wavelength Observatory will study the GRB afterglow characteristics, which will help to answer fundamental questions about both the structure and the evolution of the universe. The Swift Observatory Contamination Control Program has been developed to aid in ensuring the success of the on-orbit performance of two of the primary instruments: the Ultraviolet and Optical Telescope (UVOT) and the X-Ray Telescope (XRT). During the design phase of the Observatory, the contamination control program evolved and trade studies were performed to assess the risk of contaminating the sensitive UVOT and XRT optics during both pre-launch testing and on-orbit operations, within the constraints of the overall program cost and schedule.

Hansen, Patricia A.↗

The Swift Project Contamination Control Program: A Case Study of Balancing Cost, Schedule and Risk

The Swift Observatory will be launched in early 2004 to examine the dynamic process of gamma ray burst (GRB) events. The multi-wavelength Observatory will study the GRB afterglow characteristics, which will help to answer fundamental questions about both the structure and the evolution of the universe. The Swift Observatory Contamination Control Program has been developed to aid in ensuring the success of the on-orbit performance of two of the primary instruments: the Ultraviolet and Optical Telescope (UVOT) and the X-Ray Telescope (XRT). During the design phase of the Observatory, the contamination control program evolved and trade studies were performed to assess the risk of contaminating the sensitive UVOT and XRT optics during both pre-launch testing and on-orbit operations, within the constraints of the overall program cost and schedule.

Hansen, Patricia A.↗

4.2-4.3 AE anorthositic soil fragments - Equilibrated or unequilibrated polycomponent systems

The petrographies and phase chemistries of five lunar crystalline anorthositic fragments with Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau 'ages' ranging from 4.1 to 4.3 AE are reported. An investigation is conducted to determine whether the individual fragments are monomict or polymict breccias. For polymict breccias it is attempted to establish whether clasts and matrix have equilibrated chemically. On the basis of the results of the investigation it is suggested that sample 73263,1,1 was a breccia (possibly a clast-laden melt) containing old clasts, incorporated in an ejecta blanket that was annealed at about 4.1 AE in a transient high-temperature event. The sample 73263,1,6 studied is an annealed anorthositic breccia containing approximately 20% clasts dominated by single-crystal plagioclase fragments. The obtained data are consistent with a two-component system containing old plagioclase clasts in a young (about 4.0 AE) annealed, matrix. The annealing event at approximately 4.0 AE was insufficient to equilibrate the argon. It is found that four of the breccias having ages of about 4.2 AE or more are polymict. The most striking feature of all of the samples studied is the presence of a significant amount of 4.2-4.3 AE argon.

Delano, J. W.↗

Optimization of Instrument Requirements for NASAs GEO-CAPE Coastal Mission Concept Based On Sensor Capability And Cost Studies

NASA's GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEOCAPE) mission concept recommended by the U.S. National Research Council (2007) focuses on measurements of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols and aquatic coastal ecology and biogeochemistry from geostationary orbit (35,786 km altitude). GEO-CAPE is currently in pre-formulation (pre- Phase) A with no established launch date. NASA continues to support science and engineering studies to reduce mission risk. Instrument design lab (IDL) studies were commissioned in 2014 to design and cost two implementations for geostationary ocean color instruments (1) Wide-Angle Spectrometer (WAS) and (2) Filter Radiometer (FR) and (3) a cost scaling study to compare the costs for implementing different science performance requirements.

Geo-CAPE↗

A case for catastrophic early degassing of the earth.

Evidence is given for the occurrence in early earth history of massive escape of volatiles from the interior of the earth to its surface, which must have had catastrophic proportions. The mechanism and time of this event are inferred from the abundances and distribution of volatiles in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and crust, and from meteorite studies, and geophysical and astronomical observations. This event is linked to the melting of the earth during accretion which resulted in the concentration of U, Th, K and Pb in the outermost portion of the earth and in virtually complete expulsion of nonradiogenic Ar, Ne and Kr from its interior.

Fanale, F. P.↗

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2,O3, N2O, HNO3 , N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in October/November 2003 at 25-0.01 hPa in the Northern hemisphere (40-90 N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2D model (B2dM) and Bremen 3D Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSY Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SO1ar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOS, and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications on the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5% with the observations. Simulated NO(y) enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30% higher than indicated by the observations which can be partly attributed to an overestimation of simulated electron-induced ionization. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO(y) partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

Funke, B.↗

On the Importance of Using Event-Specific Wave Diffusion Rates in Modeling Diffuse Electron Precipitation

A few to tens of keV electron precipitation that carries substantial energy source down to the upper atmosphere to create aurora is manifested as an important magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling process. The precipitation is usually caused by scattering processes associated with plasma waves in the magnetosphere. The scattering process is often quantified by wave diffusion rates that indicate how fast an electron is scattered. Global models commonly use diffusion coefficients that are derived from statistical wave models. However, due to the statistical nature, many localized, transient features could be smeared out. In this study, we investigate electron precipitation using event-specific diffusion coefficients that are obtained based on simultaneous in-situ measured/inferred, rather than statistical, chorus wave dynamics. We find that the application of the event-specific diffusion coefficients associated with a more dynamic and intense chorus wave model leads more electrons, particularly at several to tens of keV in the dawn-to-noon sector at L > 3, to precipitate than using statistical coefficients. Here, the new simulation roughly captures both the intensity and variability of the precipitating flux as detected by the NOAA/POES satellites. Ionospheric electron density in the lower E region (100–120 km) observed by the mid-latitude Millstone Hill radar is also much better reproduced, while the case using statistical diffusion coefficients underestimates the ionization rate. This study implies the importance of using event-specific diffusion rates in simulating the diffuse electron precipitation and understanding the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Human factors in aviation: Terminal control area boundary conflicts

Air-to-air conflicts in the vicinity of Terminal Control Area (TCA) boundaries were studied to obtain a better understanding of the causal dynamics of these events with particular focus on human factor issues. The study dataset consisted of 381 Instrument Flight Rules/Visual Flight Rules (IFR/VFR) traffic conflicts in airspace layers above TCA ceiling and below TCA floors; 213 reports of incursions in TCA terminal airspace by VFR aircraft, of which 123 resulted in conflicts; and an additional set of reports describing problems with Air Traffic Control (ATC) services in and around TCAs. Results and conclusions are detailed.

Monan, William P.↗

Computer modeling of large asteroid impacts into continental and oceanic sites: Atmospheric, cratering, and ejecta dynamics

Numerous impact cratering events have occurred on the Earth during the last several billion years that have seriously affected our planet and its atmosphere. The largest cratering events, which were caused by asteroids and comets with kinetic energies equivalent to tens of millions of megatons of TNT, have distributed substantial quantities of terrestrial and extraterrestrial material over much or all of the Earth. In order to study a large-scale impact event in detail, computer simulations were completed that model the passage of a 10 km-diameter asteroid through the Earth's atmosphere and the subsequent cratering and ejecta dynamics associated with impact of the asteroid into two different targets, i.e., an oceanic site and a continental site. The calcuations were designed to broadly represent giant impact events that have occurred on the Earth since its formation and specifically represent an impact cratering event proposed to have occurred at the end of Cretaceous time. Calculation of the passage of the asteroid through a U.S. Standard Atmosphere showed development of a strong bow shock that expanded radially outward. Behind the shock front was a region of highly shock compressed and intensely heated air. Behind the asteroid, rapid expansion of this shocked air created a large region of very low density that also expanded away from the impact area. Calculations of the cratering events in both the continental and oceanic targets were carried to 120 s. Despite geologic differences, impacts in both targets developed comparable dynamic flow fields, and by approx. 29 s similar-sized transient craters approx. 39 km deep and approx. 62 km across had formed. For all practical purposes, the atmosphere was nearly completely removed from the impact area for tens of seconds, i.e., air pressures were less than fractions of a bar out to ranges of over 50 km. Consequently, much of the asteroid and target materials were ejected upward into a near vacuum. Effects of secondary volcanism and return of the ocean over hot oceanic crater floor could also be expected to add substantial solid and vaporized material to the atmosphere, but these conditions were not studied.

Roddy, D. J.↗

Development of an ultrafast wide-field microscope for single-shot laser-driven shock and ablation studies

We build an ultrafast wide-field microscope that captures single-shot events at near-optical diffraction limit for time-resolved studies of ablation and shock compression. Here, we provide insights on how the imaging and spectroscopic modalities of our single-shot microscope are impacted by the depth of field of a microscope objective. At high spatial resolution, the depth of field can critically impede these experiments and novel strategies must be implemented to acquire high-quality optical micrographs at high throughput. Here, we highlight how custom lithography-prepared samples enable us to rectify optical artifacts that arise during sample motion. With a complete knowledge of how the mechanical and optical components couple together, we can then extract critical spatial and temporal features of our ablation and shock compression experiments. For example, during the ablation processes, we show that shock waves created in metal thin films form Newton’s interference rings, whose evolution can be recorded with picosecond temporal resolution and at near optical diffraction-limit resolution.

Ultrafast microscopy↗

From Qualitative to Quantitative AOP: A Case Study of Neurodegeneration

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) include a sequence of events that connect a molecular-level initiating event with an adverse outcome at the cellular level for human health endpoints, or at the population level for ecological endpoints. When there is enough quantitative understanding of the relationships between key events in an AOP, a mathematical model may be developed to connect key events in a quantitative AOP (qAOP). Ideally, a qAOP will reduce the time and resources spent for chemical toxicity testing and risk assessment and enable the extrapolation of data collected at the molecular-level by in vitro assays, for example, to predict whether an adverse outcome may occur. Here, we review AOPs in the AOPWiki, an AOP repository, to determine best practices that would facilitate conversion from AOP to qAOP. Then, focusing on a particular case study, acetylcholinesterase inhibition leading to neurodegeneration, we describe specific methods and challenges. Examples of challenges include the availability and collection of quantitative data amenable to model development, the lack of studies that measure multiple key events, and model accessibility or transferability across platforms. We conclude with recommendations for improving key event and key event relationship descriptions in the AOPWiki that facilitate the transition of qualitative AOPs to qAOPs.

Sinitsyn, Dennis↗

Quantitative numerical modeling of a coronal mass ejection

The results of an investigation on how the initial state (pre-event corona) quantitatively affects the magnetohydrodynamic model output of a coronal mass ejection (CME) are presented. The extension of the study on the identification of pre-event streamer properties which are crucial in determining the observed characteristics of CMEs, to more realistic configurations, also taking into account the coronal hole regions, adjacent to quiet coronal streamers, whose physical conditions are not adequately reproduced by global coronal models, is addressed. Results from the present model show three distinct types of CME's (loop, plasmoid and spike) which correspond to the classes of CME's identified in observations made with white light coronographs. The aim is a better understanding of the intercorrelations between streamers and adjacent coronal hole properties.

Wang, A. H.↗

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

Systems design study of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft. Volume 1. Technical analyses and tradeoffs, sections 1-4 (part 1 of 4)

The results are reported of the Pioneer Venus studies from 2 October 1972 through 30 June 1973. Many missions were considered, involving two launch vehicles (Thor/Delta and Atlas/Centaur), and different launch opportunities and spacecraft configurations to meet varying science requirements, all at minimum cost. The sequence of events is described and the specific studies conducted are summarized. The effects of science payload on mission and spacecraft design are discussed along with the mission analyses.

Source record↗