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DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification of bioprivileged molecules: expansion of a computational approach to broader molecular space

As interest in biobased chemicals grows, and their application space expands, computational tools to navigate molecule space as a complement to experimental approaches are imperative. This work expands upon previous work that identified candidate bioprivileged molecules from the C 6 H x O y (C6) subspace. It refines the framework that was developed previously to better refine the molecules according to their biological origin and applies it to three new subspaces of chemical structure: C 4 H x O y (C4), C 5 H x O y (C5), and C 7 H x O y (C7). For C5 and C7, roughly the top 100 bioprivileged candidates were identified, and the enhanced framework was applied to recast slightly the previous list of the top 100 C6 molecules. In addition, all top candidates were analyzed for their key functional moieties using a random forest model, and this algorithm was applied to compare the functional group space occupied by bioprivileged molecules of various databases of molecules with a focus on evaluating how closely the molecules were aligned with those known to biology. Furthermore, with the present work's focus on automation and data science principles, the framework can be easily expanded to include other chemical formulae to screen for bioprivileged candidates. As a result, this in turn facilitates the retrosynthesis process inherent in the framework to identify those bioprivileged intermediates in other subspaces that lead to target molecules.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lessons Learned and Scalability Achieved When Porting Uintah to DOE Exascale Systems

A key challenge faced when preparing codes for Department of Energy (DOE) exascale systems was designing scalable applications for systems featuring hardware and software not yet available at leadership-class scale. With such systems now available, it is important to evaluate scalability of the resulting software solutions on these target systems. One such code designed with the exascale DOE Aurora and DOE Frontier systems in mind is the Uintah Computational Framework, an open-source asynchronous many-task (AMT) runtime system. To prepare for exascale, Uintah adopted a portable MPI+X hybrid parallelism approach using the Kokkos performance portability library (i.e., MPI+Kokkos). This paper complements recent work with additional details and an evaluation of the resulting approach on Aurora and Frontier. Results are shown for a challenging benchmark demonstrating interoperability of 3 portable codes essential to Uintah-related combustion research. These results demonstrate single-source portability across Aurora and Frontier with scaling characteristics shown to 3,072 Aurora nodes and 9,216 Frontier nodes. In addition to showing results run to new scales on new systems, this paper also discusses lessons learned through efforts preparing Uintah for exascale systems.

Holmen, John [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259342641)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature Based Qualification of 17-4PH Stainless Steel to Evaluate Location-Specific Variability in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Qualifying large-scale metal additive manufacturing (M-AM) technologies such as wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) can be challenging. This is especially significant in precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steels like SS 17-4PH, where thermal histories induce location-specific microstructural variability and property anisotropy. The Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC) Ground Vehicle Materials Engineering (GVME) aim to build robust and qualified large-scale M-AM workflows that could reduce the time and cost through quick and informed evaluation, testing, and development of feedstock, processes, and parts. The report presents the findings from the collaborative efforts between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the U.S. Army GVSC GVME. The aim of this project was to develop a geometric feature-based qualification framework for WAAM of SS 17-4PH components. This report outlines selection methodology of representative build geometries, optimization of WAAM process parameters, in-situ monitoring, microstructure-property evaluation, thermal simulations, as well as data visualization techniques incorporated in this project. The results from this project demonstrate a clear understanding of thermal history dependent phase evolution and consequent location-specific property variations in WAAM of SS 17-4PH. These results in conjunction with the data-driven methodologies used in this project are expected to reduce qualification timelines, improve predictability, and accelerate the development of reliable feature-based qualification strategies for part production via large-scale M-AM technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Multi-Variant Surveillance

Early detection of an emerging VOC (Variant-Of-Concern) is essential for effective preparedness for a disease like COVID-19. The spreading of an emerging VOC not only depends on the disease dynamics of itself but also depends on the state of the circulating variants and the susceptibility of the population. Resources for testing are typically quite limited, and a number of strategies have been considered for deploying them. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the performance of such strategies, especially higher order effects, and inequities, while incorporating constraints on these resources. Here, we develop an agent-based surveillance framework, Networkdetect, to understand the early warning system of an emerging VOC. Our framework allows us to incorporate various population heterogeneities and resource constraints.

Moon, Sifat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000344968809)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum-Based Molecular Dynamics Simulations Using Tensor Cores

Tensor cores, along with tensor processing units, represent a new form of hardware acceleration specifically designed for deep neural network calculations in artificial intelligence applications. Tensor cores provide extraordinary computational speed and energy efficiency but with the caveat that they were designed for tensor contractions (matrix–matrix multiplications) using only low-precision floating-point operations. Despite this perceived limitation, we demonstrate how tensor cores can be applied with high efficiency to the challenging and numerically sensitive problem of quantum-based Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, which requires highly accurate electronic structure optimizations and conservative force evaluations. The interatomic forces are calculated on-the-fly from an electronic structure that is obtained from a generalized deep neural network, where the computational structure naturally takes advantage of the exceptional processing power of the tensor cores and allows for high performance in excess of 100 Tflops on a single Nvidia A100 GPU. Stable molecular dynamics trajectories are generated using the framework of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, which combines computational efficiency with long-term stability, even when using approximate charge relaxations and force evaluations that are limited in accuracy by the numerically noisy conditions caused by the low-precision tensor core floating-point operations. A canonical ensemble simulation scheme is also presented, where the additional numerical noise in the calculated forces is absorbed into a Langevin-like dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy Resilience Reference Guide, Chapter Three: Climate Resilience Strategies for Regulators

The NARUC Energy Resilience Reference Guide is envisioned as a one-stop primer for state public utility commissions (PUCs) to assist in the development of a shared language, valuation framework, and educational tool on the topic of energy resilience. The resilience of the energy system has increasingly become part of commissions’ regulatory scope so informed decisions are made regarding how to best enhance system resilience. Several states have already established evaluative resilience criteria (via legislative statute or regulatory directive). This guide is intended to succinctly summarize many of the critical topic areas within energy resilience and to facilitate adoption of resilience valuation frameworks by which PUCs can weigh investment decisions regarding energy system resiliency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flexible User-Defined Domain Decomposition in Kilometer-Scale E3SM Land Model Simulation

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) has been extended to kilometer-scale (km-ELM) resolutions, enabling high-fidelity simulations of terrestrial processes at 1 km x 1 km grid spacing. In ELM, domain decomposition partitions the computational domain across processors, ensuring efficient parallel execution. Currently, round-robin decomposition is applied, providing a straightforward way to distribute computational workload. As ELM continues evolving at the kilometer-scale (km-scale), particularly with integrating lateral flow modeling, decomposition strategies must also account for the increased workload and data movement. This paper introduces a flexible user-defined domain decomposition framework, allowing users to customize domain partitioning based on application requirements. The impact of different decomposition strategies is evaluated across various applications concerning computation, communication, and I/O. Results demonstrate that while 1D partitioning yields superior I/O performance, k-nearest neighbors (KNN) clustering effectively reduces inter-process communication overhead. This study lays the groundwork for scalable partitioning in large-scale land surface simulations, enhancing next-generation Earth system modeling.

Wang, Dali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000168065108)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Co-ion specific effect on sodium halides sorption and transport in a cross-linked poly(p-styrene sulfonate-co-divinylbenzene) for membrane applications

Here, sodium halide sorption and transport in a cation exchange membrane based on cross-linked poly(p-styrene sulfonate-co-divinylbenzene) (CR61) were investigated experimentally and theoretically. At fixed co-ion valence, sodium halide partitioning between aqueous electrolyte solutions and ion exchange polymers is only minimally sensitive to co-ion chemical identity. NaCl, NaF and NaI exhibit similar solubility coefficients in CR61, which agrees reasonably well with predictions of the Donnan-Manning model, especially at high external salt concentrations. Ion activity coefficients in the membrane were evaluated and ion sorption thermodynamics were investigated. Ion diffusion coefficients in CR61 were predicted using a recently developed framework based on the Manning diffusion model, which accounts for electrostatic effects on ion diffusion, and the Mackie-Meares model, which accounts for tortuosity/area effects on ion diffusion in swollen polymers. Model predictions agree reasonably well with the experimental data, especially at high external salt concentrations. The observed decrease in salt diffusion coefficients in CR61 relative to values in aqueous solutions is due primarily to tortuosity/area effects. Salt diffusion coefficients correlate with co-ion hydrated radius and membrane water content. Finally, salt permeability coefficients predicted using the solution-diffusion model exhibit good agreement with experimental data, especially at external salt concentration greater than 0.1 mol/L.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Analysis of Origin of Lithium Inventory Loss and Interface Evolution over Extended Fast Charge Aging in Li Ion Batteries

During the extreme fast charging (XFC) of lithium-ion batteries, lithium inventory loss (LLI) and reaction mechanisms at the anode/electrolyte interface are crucial factors in performance and safety. Determining the causes of LLI and quantifying them remain an essential challenge. We present mechanistic research on the evolution and interactions of aging mechanisms at the anode/electrolyte interface. We used NMC 532 /graphite pouch cells charged at rates of 1, 6, and 9 C up to 1000 cycles for our investigation. The cell components were characterized after cycling using electrochemical measurements, inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy, 7 Li solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. The results indicate that cells charged at 1 C exhibit no Li plating, and the increase of SEI thickness is the dominant source of the Li loss. In contrast, Li loss in cells charged at 9 C is related to the formation of the metallic plating layers (42%) the SEI layer (38.1%) and irreversible intercalation into the bulk graphite (19%). XPS analysis suggests that the charging rate has little influence on the evolution of SEI composition. The interactions between competing aging mechanisms were evaluated by a correlation analysis. In conclusion, the quantitative method established in this work provides a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding the synergistic coupling of anodic degradation mechanisms, forecasting SEI failure scenarios, and assessing the XFC lithium-ion battery capacity fade.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ab initio calculations of monopole sum rules: From finite nuclei to infinite nuclear matter

We compute moments of the isoscalar monopole response of 𝑁 = 𝑍 closed-shell nuclei based on chiral nucleon-nucleon plus three-nucleon interactions. We employ the random-phase approximation (RPA) and two ab initio many-body approaches, the in-medium similarity renormalization group (IMSRG) and coupled-cluster theory (CC). In the IMSRG framework, the moments are obtained as ground-state expectation values, whereas in the CC approach, they are evaluated through excited-state calculations. We find good agreement between the IMSRG and CC results across all nuclei studied. RPA provides a reasonable approximation to the correlated methods if the interaction is soft. From the calculated moments, we extract average energies of the monopole response, compute finite-nucleus incompressibilities, and estimate the incompressibility of symmetric nuclear matter by a fit to a leptodermous expansion. Our extrapolated values are lower than those obtained in nuclear-matter calculations with the same interactions, but the values are consistent with phenomenological ranges.

Bonaiti, Francesca [Michigan State Univ., East Lan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing quantum memory lifetime with measurement-free local error correction and reinforcement learning

Reliable quantum computation requires systematic identification and correction of errors that occur and accumulate in quantum hardware. To diagnose and correct such errors, standard quantum error-correcting protocols utilize global error information across the system obtained by mid-circuit readout of ancillary qubits. We investigate circuit-level error-correcting protocols that are measurement-free and based on local error information. Such a local error correction (LEC) circuit consists of faulty multi-qubit gates to perform both syndrome extraction and ancilla-controlled error removal. We develop and implement a reinforcement learning framework that takes a fixed set of faulty gates as inputs and outputs an optimized LEC circuit. To evaluate this approach, we quantitatively characterize an extension of logical qubit lifetime by a noisy LEC circuit. For the two-dimensional (2D) classical Ising model and four-dimensional toric code, our optimized LEC circuit performs better at extending a memory lifetime compared with a conventional LEC circuit based on Toom's rule in a subthreshold gate error regime. We further show that such circuits can be used to reduce the rate of mid-circuit readouts to preserve a 2D toric code memory. Lastly, we discuss the application of the LEC protocol on dissipative preparation of quantum states with topological phases.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Risk-Driven Probabilistic Approach to Quantify Resilience in Power Distribution Systems

It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact of appropriate planning measures and new operational procedures for resilience enhancement. In this paper, we propose a resilience metric using parameters that define system attributes and performance. To represent extreme events (tail probability), the conditional value-at-risk of each of the parameters are combined using Choquet Integral to evaluate the overall resilience. The effectiveness of the proposed resilience metric is studied within the simulation-based framework under extreme weather scenarios with the help of a modified IEEE 123-bus system. With the proposed framework, system operators will have additional flexibility to prioritize one investment over the others to enhance the resilience of the grid.

Poudyal, Abodh↗

DOE OSTI2023

MLIR loop optimizations for High-Level Synthesis: a case study

High-Level Synthesis (HLS) tools simplify the design of hardware accelerators by automatically generating Verilog/VHDL code starting from a general purpose software programming language. They include a wide range of optimization techniques in the process, most of them performed on a low-level intermediate representation (IR) of the code. Introducing optimizations on a higher level of abstraction could significantly contribute to the automated design process results; for example, polyhedral techniques for the manipulation of loops could have a significant impact on the generated accelerators when applied on a specialized IR. We use loop pipelining as a case study to explore the introduction of compiler-based transformations on top of an existing HLS process. We leverage the Multi-Level Intermediate Representation (MLIR) framework and an external scheduler to implement the required transformations, and couple them with existing HLS tools to evaluate the improvements that loop pipelining brings to the performance of generated accelerators. The proposed approach can be integrated with other high-level transformations on the MLIR representation, combining different techniques to obtain pre-optimized inputs for HLS that do not have to rely on a specific backend tool.

Curzel, Serena↗

DOE OSTI2025

ASDF: A Compiler for Qwerty, a Basis-Oriented Quantum Programming Language

Qwerty is a high-level quantum programming language built on bases and functions rather than circuits. This new paradigm introduces new challenges in compilation, namely synthesizing circuits from basis translations and automatically specializing adjoint or predicated forms of functions. This paper presents ASDF, an open-source compiler for Qwerty that answers these challenges in compiling basis-oriented languages. Enabled with a novel high-level quantum IR implemented in the MLIR framework, our compiler produces OpenQASM 3 or QIR for either simulation or execution on hardware. Our compiler is evaluated by comparing the fault-tolerant resource requirements of generated circuits with other compilers, finding that ASDF produces circuits with comparable cost to prior circuit-oriented compilers.

Adams, Austin J [Georgia Tech]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗