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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Upscaling permeability for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks with the multiple boundary method

Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Gupta, Rajan↗

TAILSIM Users Guide

The TAILSIM program uses a 4th order Runge-Kutta method to integrate the standard aircraft equations-of-motion (EOM). The EOM determine three translational and three rotational accelerations about the aircraft's body axis reference system. The forces and moments that drive the EOM are determined from aerodynamic coefficients, dynamic derivatives, and control inputs. Values for these terms are determined from linear interpolation of tables that are a function of parameters such as angle-of-attack and surface deflections. Buildup equations combine these terms and dimensionalize them to generate the driving total forces and moments. Features that make TAILSIM applicable to studies of tailplane stall include modeling of the reversible control System, modeling of the pilot performing a load factor and/or airspeed command task, and modeling of vertical gusts. The reversible control system dynamics can be described as two hinged masses connected by a spring. resulting in a fifth order system. The pilot model is a standard form of lead-lag with a time delay applied to an integrated pitch rate and/or airspeed error feedback. The time delay is implemented by a Pade approximation, while the commanded pitch rate is determined by a commanded load factor. Vertical gust inputs include a single 1-cosine gust and a continuous NASA Dryden gust model. These dynamic models. coupled with the use of a nonlinear database, allow the tailplane stall characteristics, elevator response, and resulting aircraft response, to be modeled. A useful output capability of the TAILSIM program is the ability to display multiple post-run plot pages to allow a quick assessment of the time history response. There are 16 plot pages currently available to the user. Each plot page displays 9 parameters. Each parameter can also be displayed individually. on a one plot-per-page format. For a more refined display of the results the program can also create files of tabulated data. which can then be used by other plotting programs. The TAILSIM program was written straightforwardly assuming the user would want to change the database tables, the buildup equations, the output parameters. and the pilot model parameters. A separate database file and input file are automatically read in by the program. The use of an include file to set up all common blocks facilitates easy changing of parameter names and array sizes.

Hiltner, Dale W.↗

Pilot errors as a source of workload

A pilot opinion survey was conducted to develop a database for creating simulation scenarios that impose predetermined levels of pilot workload. Twelve pilots estimated the effect of 163 events and activities (which they had encountered during their previous flying experiences) on performance, effort, workload, and stress. The events, described in the context of flight scenario segments, included control, navigation and communications activities, aircraft and system failures, and pilot errors. In general, workload, stress, and effort ratings were significantly correlated with each other but not with performance ratings; however, some different response patterns were found as a function of flight segment (e.g., workload, stress, and performance, but not effort, ratings varied with flight phase) and type of event. Errors were rated as a significant source of change for workload, stress, and performance, suggesting that errors could be conceptualized as a cause of workload rather than as a symptom.

Hart, S. G.↗

Software reliability: Repetitive run experimentation and modeling

A software experiment conducted with repetitive run sampling is reported. Independently generated input data was used to verify that interfailure times are very nearly exponentially distributed and to obtain good estimates of the failure rates of individual errors and demonstrate how widely they vary. This fact invalidates many of the popular software reliability models now in use. The log failure rate of interfailure time was nearly linear as a function of the number of errors corrected. A new model of software reliability is proposed that incorporates these observations.

Nagel, P. M.↗

Convergence Study in Global Sensitivity Analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a common method used to randomly sample a range of scenarios. The associated error follows a predictable rate of convergence of $1/\sqrt{N}$, such that quadrupling the sample size halves the error. This method is often employed in performing global sensitivity analysis which computes sensitivity indices, measuring fractional contributions of uncertain model inputs to the total output variance. In this study, several models are used to observe the rate of decay in the MC error in the estimation of the conditional variance, the total variance in the output, and the global sensitivity indices. The purpose is to examine the rate of convergence of the error in existing specialized, albeit MC-based, sampling methods for estimation of the sensitivity indices. It was found that the conditional variances and sensitivity indices all follow the $1/\sqrt{N}$ convergence rate. Future work will test the convergence of observables from more complex models such as ignition time in combustion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tropospheric range-rate tracking data correction

A formula for correcting the tropospheric error in range-rate satellite tracking data is given. The formula is based on the method which was used to obtain corrections for elevation-angle and range data. In addition, an improved method is given for calculating some of the parameters required in the correction formulas.

Marini, J. W.↗

Hydrothermal atomic force microscopy observations of barite step growth rates as a function of the aqueous barium-to-sulfate ratio

The rate of growth of ionic minerals from solutions with varying aqueous cation:anion ratios may result in significant errors in mineralization rates predicted by commonly-used affinity-based rate equations. To assess the potential influence of solute stoichiometry on barite growth, step velocities on the barite (001) surface have been measured at 108 °C using hydrothermal atomic force microscopy (HAFM) at moderate supersaturation and as a function of the aqueous barium:sulfate ratio (r). Barite growth hillocks at r ~ 1 were bounded by $\langle$120$\rangle$ steps, however at r < 1, kink site densities increased, steps followed a direction vicinal to $\langle$120$\rangle$, and the [010] steps developed. At r > 1, steps roughened and rounded as the kink site density increased. Step velocities peaked at r = 1 and decreased roughly symmetrically as a function of r, indicating the attachment rates of barium and sulfate ions are similar under these conditions. We hypothesize that the differences in our observations at high and low r arise from differences in the attachment rate constants for the obtuse and acute $\langle$120$\rangle$ steps. Based on results at low r, the data suggests the attachment rate constant for barium ions is similar for obtuse and acute steps. Based on results at high r, the data suggests the attachment rate constant for sulfate is greater for obtuse steps than acute steps. In conclusion, utilizing a step growth model developed by Stack and Grantham (2010) the experimental step velocities as a function of r were readily fit while attempts to fit the data using a model developed by Zhang and Nancollas (1998) were less successful.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Origin and Evolution of Deep Plasmaspheric Notches

Deep plasmaspheric notches can extend over more than 2 R(sub E) in radial distance and 3 hours MLT in the magnetic equatorial plane, as observed by the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imager on the IMAGE mission. They are among the largest evacuated features in the exterior plasmaspheric boundary. They can last for days and exhibit a variety of shapes. It appears that weak convection and limited erosion precedes notch formation at the westward, near-Earth edge of the convection plume. Eighteen clear notch events were found and analyzed in 2000. Among these events, notches were found to drift as slowly as 44% of corotation. In only one case was a notch found to drift at the corotation rate within measurement error. On average, these notches drift at about 21.5 h d(sup -1) or 90% of the corotational rate. Notches sometimes exhibit an interior structure that appears as an extended prominence of dense plasma, which forms a W- or M-like feature in IMAGE/EUV images, depending on viewing perspective. Initial modeling suggests that notches and notch prominences may be caused in part by intense small-scale potential structures that result from the localized injection of ring current plasma. Plasma filling rates during recovery are examined in three L shell ranges from L = 2 to L = 3.5 with rates ranging from 5 to 140 cm(sup -3) d(sup -1). Plasma loss during a minor substorm is found to extend to surprisingly low L shell with rates ranging from 100 to 130 cm(sup -3) d(sup -1) across the L shells examined.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

The Origin and Evolution of Deep Plasmaspheric Notches

Deep plasmaspheric notches can extend over more than 2 RE in radial distance and 3 hours MLT in the magnetic equatorial plane. They appear to be among the largest evacuated features in the exterior plasmaspheric boundary. They can last for days and exhibit varying structure. It appears that low-density channels resulting from the entrainment of the plasmaspheric convection plume during storm-time recovery share the same origin as notches. Notches rather than channels result from differences in storm- time conditions. Strong convection tends to result in low-density channels, while weaker convection and limited erosion results in notches. Eighteen events in 2000 have been analyzed. Among these events, notches were found to drift as slowly as 72% of corotation. In only one case was a notch found to drift at the corotation rate within measurement error. On average, notches drift at about 2 1.5 hours per day or 90% of the co-rotational rate. Notches also sometimes exhibit an interior structure that appears as an extended prominence of dense plasma, which forms a W-like feature in IMAGEEUV images when viewed from Earth-center. Modeling suggests such features may be caused by small-scale potential structures that result from the localized injection of ring current plasma. Plasma filling rates during recovery and drainage during a minor storm are reported.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

Kinetics of the reaction Cl + NO2 + M

Using atomic chlorine resonance fluorescence at 140 nm to detect the decay of atomic chlorine in the presence of an excess of NO2, the rate constant for the reaction Cl + NO2 + M, where M is the total gas concentration, is measured over the temperature range 264 to 417 K and at a pressure 1 to 7 torr in a discharge flow system. The rate constants for M= He and M= N2 are measured and the results are summarized in a table. The systematic error of the rate constants is estimated to be about 15 percent. A static photolysis system coupled with an FTIR spectrophotometer is used to determine the branching ratio for the formation of two possible isomers. The ratio is concluded to be ClONO (greater than or equal 75 percent) and ClNO2 (less than or equal 25 percent) which is in agreement with the results of Niki et al. (1978).

Leu, M.-T.↗

Improved Conflict Detection for Reducing Operational Errors in Air Traffic Control

An operational error is an incident in which an air traffic controller allows the separation between two aircraft to fall below the minimum separation standard. The rates of such errors in the US have increased significantly over the past few years. This paper proposes new detection methods that can help correct this trend by improving on the performance of Conflict Alert, the existing software in the Host Computer System that is intended to detect and warn controllers of imminent conflicts. In addition to the usual trajectory based on the flight plan, a "dead-reckoning" trajectory (current velocity projection) is also generated for each aircraft and checked for conflicts. Filters for reducing common types of false alerts were implemented. The new detection methods were tested in three different ways. First, a simple flightpath command language was developed t o generate precisely controlled encounters for the purpose of testing the detection software. Second, written reports and tracking data were obtained for actual operational errors that occurred in the field, and these were "replayed" to test the new detection algorithms. Finally, the detection methods were used to shadow live traffic, and performance was analysed, particularly with regard to the false-alert rate. The results indicate that the new detection methods can provide timely warnings of imminent conflicts more consistently than Conflict Alert.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

IMRT QA: Selecting gamma criteria based on error detection sensitivity

Purpose: The gamma comparison is widely used to evaluate the agreement between measurements and treatment planning system calculations in patient-specific intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA). However, recent publications have raised concerns about the lack of sensitivity when employing commonly used gamma criteria. Understanding the actual sensitivity of a wide range of different gamma criteria may allow the definition of more meaningful gamma criteria and tolerance limits in IMRT QA. We present a method that allows the quantitative determination of gamma criteria sensitivity to induced errors which can be applied to any unique combination of device, delivery technique, and software utilized in a specific clinic. Methods: A total of 21 DMLC IMRT QA measurements (ArcCHECK®, Sun Nuclear) were compared to QA plan calculations with induced errors. Three scenarios were studied: MU errors, multi-leaf collimator (MLC) errors, and the sensitivity of the gamma comparison to changes in penumbra width. Gamma comparisons were performed between measurements and error-induced calculations using a wide range of gamma criteria, resulting in a total of over 20 000 gamma comparisons. Gamma passing rates for each error class and case were graphed against error magnitude to create error curves in order to represent the range of missed errors in routine IMRT QA using 36 different gamma criteria. Results: This study demonstrates that systematic errors and case-specific errors can be detected by the error curve analysis. Depending on the location of the error curve peak (e.g., not centered about zero), 3%/3 mm threshold = 10% at 90% pixels passing may miss errors as large as 15% MU errors and ±1 cm random MLC errors for some cases. As the dose threshold parameter was increased for a given %Diff/distance-to-agreement (DTA) setting, error sensitivity was increased by up to a factor of two for select cases. This increased sensitivity with increasing dose threshold was consistent across all studied combinations of %Diff/DTA. Criteria such as 2%/3 mm and 3%/2 mm with a 50% threshold at 90% pixels passing are shown to be more appropriately sensitive without being overly strict. However, a broadening of the penumbra by as much as 5 mm in the beam configuration was difficult to detect with commonly used criteria, as well as with the previously mentioned criteria utilizing a threshold of 50%. Conclusions: We have introduced the error curve method, an analysis technique which allows the quantitative determination of gamma criteria sensitivity to induced errors. The application of the error curve method using DMLC IMRT plans measured on the ArcCHECK® device demonstrated that large errors can potentially be missed in IMRT QA with commonly used gamma criteria (e.g., 3%/3 mm, threshold = 10%, 90% pixels passing). Additionally, increasing the dose threshold value can offer dramatic increases in error sensitivity. This approach may allow the selection of more meaningful gamma criteria for IMRT QA and is straightforward to apply to other combinations of devices and treatment techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Flight evaluation of differential GPS aided inertial navigation systems

Algorithms are described for integration of Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) data with Inertial Navigation System (INS) data to provide an integrated DGPS/INS navigation system. The objective is to establish the benefits that can be achieved through various levels of integration of DGPS with INS for precision navigation. An eight state Kalman filter integration was implemented in real-time on a twin turbo-prop transport aircraft to evaluate system performance during terminal approach and landing operations. A fully integrated DGPS/INS system is also presented which models accelerometer and rate-gyro measurement errors plus position, velocity, and attitude errors. The fully integrated system was implemented off-line using range-domain (seventeen-state) and position domain (fifteen-state) Kalman filters. Both filter integration approaches were evaluated using data collected during the flight test. Flight-test data consisted of measurements from a 5 channel Precision Code GPS receiver, a strap-down Inertial Navigation Unit (INU), and GPS satellite differential range corrections from a ground reference station. The aircraft was laser tracked to determine its true position. Results indicate that there is no significant improvement in positioning accuracy with the higher levels of DGPS/INS integration. All three systems provided high-frequency (e.g., 20 Hz) estimates of position and velocity. The fully integrated system provided estimates of inertial sensor errors which may be used to improve INS navigation accuracy should GPS become unavailable, and improved estimates of acceleration, attitude, and body rates which can be used for guidance and control. Precision Code DGPS/INS positioning accuracy (root-mean-square) was 1.0 m cross-track and 3.0 m vertical. (This AGARDograph was sponsored by the Guidance and Control Panel.)

Mcnally, B. David↗

A Nonlinear Adaptive Filter for Gyro Thermal Bias Error Cancellation

Deterministic errors in angular rate gyros, such as thermal biases, can have a significant impact on spacecraft attitude knowledge. In particular, thermal biases are often the dominant error source in MEMS gyros after calibration. Filters, such as J\,fEKFs, are commonly used to mitigate the impact of gyro errors and gyro noise on spacecraft closed loop pointing accuracy, but often have difficulty in rapidly changing thermal environments and can be computationally expensive. In this report an existing nonlinear adaptive filter is used as the basis for a new nonlinear adaptive filter designed to estimate and cancel thermal bias effects. A description of the filter is presented along with an implementation suitable for discrete-time applications. A simulation analysis demonstrates the performance of the filter in the presence of noisy measurements and provides a comparison with existing techniques.

Galante, Joseph M.↗

The Xpress Transfer Protocol (XTP): A tutorial (expanded version)

The Xpress Transfer Protocol (XTP) is a reliable, real-time, light weight transfer layer protocol. Current transport layer protocols such as DoD's Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and ISO's Transport Protocol (TP) were not designed for the next generation of high speed, interconnected reliable networks such as fiber distributed data interface (FDDI) and the gigabit/second wide area networks. Unlike all previous transport layer protocols, XTP is being designed to be implemented in hardware as a VLSI chip set. By streamlining the protocol, combining the transport and network layers and utilizing the increased speed and parallelization possible with a VLSI implementation, XTP will be able to provide the end-to-end data transmission rates demanded in high speed networks without compromising reliability and functionality. This paper describes the operation of the XTP protocol and in particular, its error, flow and rate control; inter-networking addressing mechanisms; and multicast support features, as defined in the XTP Protocol Definition Revision 3.4.

Sanders, Robert M.↗

The NEEDS Data Base Management and Archival Mass Memory System

A Data Base Management System and an Archival Mass Memory System are being developed that will have a 10 to the 12th bit on-line and a 10 to the 13th off-line storage capacity. The integrated system will accept packetized data from the data staging area at 50 Mbps, create a comprehensive directory, provide for file management, record the data, perform error detection and correction, accept user requests, retrieve the requested data files and provide the data to multiple users at a combined rate of 50 Mbps. Stored and replicated data files will have a bit error rate of less than 10 to the -9th even after ten years of storage. The integrated system will be demonstrated to prove the technology late in 1981.

Bailey, G. A.↗