Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decadal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Dynamics of nanoscale phase decomposition in laser ablation

Abstract Laser ablation is a process that bears both fundamental physics interest and has wide industrial applications. For decades, the lack of probes on the relevant time and length scales has prevented access to the highly nonequilibrium phase decomposition processes triggered by laser excitation. In this study, a close integration of time-resolved probing by intense femtosecond X-ray pulses with large-scale atomistic modeling has yielded unique insights into the ablation dynamics of thin gold films irradiated by femtosecond laser pulses. The emergence and growth of nanoscale density heterogeneities in the expanding ablation plume, predicted in the simulations, are mapped to the rapid evolution of distinct small angle diffraction features. This mapping enables identification of the characteristic signatures of different phase decomposition processes occurring simultaneously in the plume, which are driven by photomechanical and thermodynamic driving forces. Beyond the specific insights into the ablation phenomenon, this study demonstrates the power of joint X-ray probing and atomistic modeling of material dynamics under extreme conditions of thermal and mechanical nonequilibrium.

Sun, Yanwen (ORCID:0000000159266565)↗

Decoupling between Shockley partials and stacking faults strengthens multiprincipal element alloys

We report that mechanical properties are fundamental to structural materials, where dislocations play a decisive role in describing their mechanical behavior. Although the high-yield stresses of multiprincipal element alloys (MPEAs) have received extensive attention in the last decade, the relation between their mechanistic origins remains elusive. Our multiscale study of density functional theory, atomistic simulations, and high-resolution microscopy shows that the excellent mechanical properties of MPEAs have diverse origins. The strengthening effects through Shockley partials and stacking faults can be decoupled in MPEAs, breaking the conventional wisdom that low stacking fault energies are coupled with wide partial dislocations. This study clarifies the mechanistic origins for the strengthening effects, laying the foundation for physics-informed predictive models for materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure de?cit (VPD). VPD has been identi?ed as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next-generation’ land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of clNovickimate impacts can be made.

Grossiord, Charlotte↗

Flowfield scaling of a swept compression corner interaction A comparison of experiment and computation

Over the past decade, there has been some important progress in understanding the problems of three-dimensional (3D) shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions. However, the problems are by no means solved. The present investigation has the objective to determine the flowfield structure of a swept compression corner interaction and to perform a test of an equation considered by Settles and Bogdonoff (1982). The experimental data obtained in a 20 x 20 cm high Reynolds number supersonic wind tunnel are compared with the predictions of a state-of-the-art numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is found that a 3D scaling law for Reynolds number effects, previously established for interaction 'footprints', is equally valid when applied to the present flowfield.

Settles, G. S.↗

Role of heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 on sulphate aerosols in global ozone losses

The reaction rate of N2O5 on sulphate aerosols is included in a model to predict global ozone loss and the column abundances of atmospheric gases. Because the reaction of N2O5 and the aerosols can take place in the stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer, it is included in the 2D model so that the results can be compared to abundances derived from satellite data and ground-based measurements. The N2O5/sulphate reaction is the only heterogeneous reaction in the model, in which aerosol loading is assumed to be constant and only diurnal values are examined. The decadal ozone trends resulting from calculations based on the model are found to be closer to the observed values. An important conclusion is that measurements of OH, ClO, HNO3, NO, and NO2 in the region of about 14-25 km are needed to examine significant changes in their abundances resulting from the inclusion of the N2O5/sulphate aerosol reaction.

Rodriguez, Jose M.↗

Using Lunar Observations to Validate Pointing Accuracy and Geolocation, Detector Sensitivity Stability and Static Point Response of the CERES Instruments

Validation of in-orbit instrument performance is a function of stability in both instrument and calibration source. This paper describes a method using lunar observations scanning near full moon by the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. The Moon offers an external source whose signal variance is predictable and non-degrading. From 2006 to present, these in-orbit observations have become standardized and compiled for the Flight Models -1 and -2 aboard the Terra satellite, for Flight Models-3 and -4 aboard the Aqua satellite, and beginning 2012, for Flight Model-5 aboard Suomi-NPP. Instrument performance measurements studied are detector sensitivity stability, pointing accuracy and static detector point response function. This validation method also shows trends per CERES data channel of 0.8% per decade or less for Flight Models 1-4. Using instrument gimbal data and computed lunar position, the pointing error of each detector telescope, the accuracy and consistency of the alignment between the detectors can be determined. The maximum pointing error was 0.2 Deg. in azimuth and 0.17 Deg. in elevation which corresponds to an error in geolocation near nadir of 2.09 km. With the exception of one detector, all instruments were found to have consistent detector alignment from 2006 to present. All alignment error was within 0.1o with most detector telescopes showing a consistent alignment offset of less than 0.02 Deg.

Daniels, Janet L.↗

Measuring the D/H Ratios of Exoplanets and Brown Dwarfs

The relative abundance of deuterium and hydrogen is a potent tracer of planet formation and evolution. Jupiter and Saturn have protosolar atmospheric D/H ratios, a relic of substantial gas accretion from the nebula, while the atmospheres of Neptune and Uranus are enhanced in D by accretion of ices into their envelopes. For terrestrial planets, D/H ratios are used to determine the mechanisms of volatile delivery and subsequent atmosphere loss over the lifetime of the planet. Planets and brown dwarfs more massive than ~13 M(J) quickly fuse their initial D reservoir. Here, we simulate spectra for giant exoplanets and brown dwarfs (2 M(Neptune) to ~10 M(Jupiter)) from T(eff) = 200–1800 K including both CH3D and HDO to determine the observability of these dominant deuterium isotopologues in mid-infrared thermal emission spectra. Colder objects have stronger molecular features in their spectra, due to the temperature dependence of molecular cross sections. CH3D is easier to observe than HDO at all temperatures considered, due to the strength of its absorption bands and locations of features at wavelengths with few other strong absorption features. We predict that for nearby cool brown dwarfs, the CH3D abundance can be measured at high signal to noise with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST); for objects from 200 to 800 K closer than 10 pc, a protosolar D/H ratio would be readily observable in 2.5 hr. Moderately young Jupiter-mass planets (100–300 Myr) and young Neptunes (10 Myr) may be discovered with JWST and provide the best targets for detecting deuterium on an exoplanet in the coming decade. Future telescope designs should consider the importance of isotopes for understanding the formation and evolution of planetary atmospheres.

Caroline V. Morley↗

A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite Derived Precipitable Water Vapor Across The Amazon Basin

Atmospheric water vapor is widely recognized as a key climate variable, linking an assortment of poorly understood and complex processes. It is a major element of the hydrological cycle and provides a mechanism for energy exchange among many of the Earth system components. Reducing uncertainty in our current knowledge of water vapor and its role in the climate system requires accurate measurement, improved modeling techniques, and long-term prediction. Satellites have the potential to satisfy these criteria, as well as provide high resolution measurements that are not available from conventional sources. The focus of this paper is to examine the temporal and mesoscale variations of satellite derived precipitable water vapor (PW) across the Amazon Basin. This region is pivotal in the functioning of the global climate system through its abundant release of latent heat associated with heavy precipitation events. In addition, anthropogenic deforestation and biomass burning activities in recent decades are altering the conditions of the atmosphere, especially in the planetary boundary layer. A physical split-window (PSW) algorithm estimates PW using images from the GOES satellites along with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data that provides the first guess information. Retrievals are made at a three-hourly time step during daylight hours in the Amazon Basin and surrounding areas for the months of June and October in 1988 (dry year) and 1995 (wet year). Spatially continuous fields are generated 5 times daily at 12Z, 15Z, 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z. These fields are then averaged to create monthly and 3 hourly monthly grids. Overall, the PSW estimates PW reasonable well in the Amazon with MAE ranging from 3.0 - 9.0 mm and MAE/observed mean around 20% in comparison to radiosonde observations. The distribution of PW generally mimics that of precipitation. Maximum values (42 - 52 mm) are located in the Northwest whereas minimum values (18 - 27 mm) are found along Brazil's East coast. Aside from the East coast, PW has a stronger north-south gradient than that of rainfall. As for the temporal variation of PW, June (1988 and 1995) experiences a peak about 1400 local time, corresponding to a maximum in air temperature. In contrast, October (1988 and 1995) experiences a maximum early in the day, 1100 local time, with a gradual decrease toward nighttime.

DeLiberty, Tracy↗

Simulation Framework to Estimate the Performance of CO2 and O2 Sensing from Space and Airborne Platforms for the ASCENDS Mission Requirements Analysis

The Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission recommended by the NRC Decadal Survey has a desired accuracy of 0.3% in carbon dioxide mixing ratio (XCO2) retrievals requiring careful selection and optimization of the instrument parameters. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is investigating 1.57 micron carbon dioxide as well as the 1.26-1.27 micron oxygen bands for our proposed ASCENDS mission requirements investigation. Simulation studies are underway for these bands to select optimum instrument parameters. The simulations are based on a multi-wavelength lidar modeling framework being developed at NASA LaRC to predict the performance of CO2 and O2 sensing from space and airborne platforms. The modeling framework consists of a lidar simulation module and a line-by-line calculation component with interchangeable lineshape routines to test the performance of alternative lineshape models in the simulations. As an option the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) program may also be used for line-by-line calculations. The modeling framework is being used to perform error analysis, establish optimum measurement wavelengths as well as to identify the best lineshape models to be used in CO2 and O2 retrievals. Several additional programs for HITRAN database management and related simulations are planned to be included in the framework. The description of the modeling framework with selected results of the simulation studies for CO2 and O2 sensing is presented in this paper.

Plitau, Denis↗

Atomic/molecular layer deposition for energy storage and conversion

Energy storage and conversion systems, including batteries, supercapacitors, fuel cells, solar cells, and photoelectrochemical water splitting, have played vital roles in the reduction of fossil fuel usage, addressing environmental issues and the development of electric vehicles. The fabrication and surface/interface engineering of electrode materials with refined structures are indispensable for achieving optimal performances for the different energy-related devices. Atomic layer deposition (ALD) and molecular layer deposition (MLD) techniques, the gas-phase thin film deposition processes with self-limiting and saturated surface reactions, have emerged as powerful techniques for surface and interface engineering in energy-related devices due to their exceptional capability of precise thickness control, excellent uniformity and conformity, tunable composition and relatively low deposition temperature. In the past few decades, ALD and MLD have been intensively studied for energy storage and conversion applications with remarkable progress. In this work, we give a comprehensive summary of the development and achievements of ALD and MLD and their applications for energy storage and conversion, including batteries, supercapacitors, fuel cells, solar cells, and photoelectrochemical water splitting. Moreover, the fundamental understanding of the mechanisms involved in different devices will be deeply reviewed. Furthermore, the large-scale potential of ALD and MLD techniques is discussed and predicted. Finally, we will provide insightful perspectives on future directions for new material design by ALD and MLD and untapped opportunities in energy storage and conversion.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Characterization of Polyimide Foams for Ultra-Lightweight Space Structures

Ultra-lightweight materials have played a significant role in nearly every area of human activity ranging from magnetic tapes and artificial organs to atmospheric balloons and space inflatables. The application range of ultra-lightweight materials in past decades has expanded dramatically due to their unsurpassed efficiency in terms of low weight and high compliance properties. A new generation of ultra-lightweight materials involving advanced polymeric materials, such as TEEK (TM) polyimide foams, is beginning to emerge to produce novel performance from ultra-lightweight systems for space applications. As a result, they require that special conditions be fulfilled to ensure adequate structural performance, shape retention, and thermal stability. It is therefore important and essential to develop methodologies for predicting the complex properties of ultra-lightweight foams. To support NASA programs such as the Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV), Clark Atlanta University, along with SORDAL, Inc., has initiated projects for commercial process development of polyimide foams for the proposed cryogenic tank integrated structure (see figure 1). Fabrication and characterization of high temperature, advanced aerospace-grade polyimide foams and filled foam sandwich composites for specified lifetimes in NASA space applications, as well as quantifying the lifetime of components, are immensely attractive goals. In order to improve the development, durability, safety, and life cycle performance of ultra-lightweight polymeric foams, test methods for the properties are constant concerns in terms of timeliness, reliability, and cost. A major challenge is to identify the mechanisms of failures (i.e., core failure, interfacial debonding, and crack development) that are reflected in the measured properties. The long-term goal of the this research is to develop the tools and capabilities necessary to successfully engineer ultra-lightweight polymeric foams. The desire is to reduce density at the material and structural levels, while at the same time maintaining or increasing mechanical and other properties.

Meador, Michael↗

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather including earlier snowmelt has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for streamflow management. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud- gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station a are studied. Streamflow data from six streams in the WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed using MODIS snow-cover maps within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period. MODIS- derived snow cover (percent of basin covered) measured on 30 April explains over 89% of the variance in discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in the decade of the 2000s using Spearman rank correlation analysis. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek Above Bull Lake from 1970 to 2009; a statistically-significant trend toward reduced stream power was found (significant at the 90% confidence level). Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period. The strong relationship between percent of basin covered and streamflow indicates that MODIS data is useful for predicting streamflow, leading to improved reservoir management.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather including earlier snowmelt has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for streamflow management. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud- gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station data are studied. Streamflow data from six streams in the WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed using MODIS snow-cover maps within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period. MODIS-derived snow cover (percent of basin covered) measured on 30 April explains over 89% of the variance in discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in the decade of the 2000s using Spearman rank correlation analysis. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek Above Bull Lake from 1970 to 2009; a statistically-significant end toward reduced stream power was found (significant at the 90% confidence level). Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period. The strong relationship between percent of basin covered and streamflow indicates that MODIS data is useful for predicting streamflow, leading to improved reservoir management

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Constructing a spatiotemporally coherent long-term PM2.5 concentration dataset over China during 1980–2019 using a machine learning approach

The lack of long-term observations and satellite retrievals of health-damaging fine particulate matter in China has demanded the estimates of historical PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations. This study constructs a gridded near-surface PM 2.5 concentration dataset across China covering 1980–2019 using the space-time random forest model with atmospheric visibility observations and other auxiliary data. The modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations are in excellent agreement with ground measurements during 2015–2019, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and mean relative error of 12%. Besides the atmospheric visibility which explains 30% of total importance of variables in the model, both emissions and meteorological conditions are also essential factors affecting PM2.5 predictions. From 1980 to 2014, the model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations increased constantly with the maximum growth rate of 5–10 µg/m3/decade over eastern China. Due to the clean air actions, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased effectively at a rate over 50 µg/m 3 /decade in the North China Plain and 20–50 µg/m 3 /decade over eastern China during 2014–2019. The newly generated dataset of 1-degree gridded PM 2.5 concentrations for the past 40 years across China provides a useful means for investigating interannual and decadal environmental and climate impacts related to aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Accelerated Creep Testing (ACT) Program for Advanced Creep Resistant Alloys for High Temperature Fossil Energy (FE) Applications (Final Report)

The research objective of this study is to develop an accelerated creep testing (ACT) program for advanced creep resistant alloys for high temperature FE applications. This research produced a new ACT for metallic materials based on Time-Temperature-Stress Superposition (TTSSP). In TTSSP, there exists a fundamental relationship between creep resistance, time, temperature, and stress that can be manipulated to reduce test durations. In our study, the stepped isostress method was employed where step increases of load during creep testing accelerated the time-to-rupture. Well-posed constitutive models including sin-hyperbolic and Wilshire-Cano-Stewart where calibrated using the SSM data and employed to predict the conventional creep response of the material. In our best experiments, <100-hour tests on lnconel 718 at 750 deg C produced over a 64x acceleration of data when compared to conventional data from Japan's National Institute of Materials Science. The ACTs enable the rapid screening of candidate materials, where a small test matrix of short duration tests can be employed to determine the creep resistance (minimum-creep-strain-rate, stress-rupture, and creep deformation) of a material across decades.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0

Abstract. The spatial heterogeneity related to complex topography in California demands high-resolution (< 5 km) modeling, but global convection-permitting climate models are computationally too expensive to run multi-decadal simulations. We developed a 3.25 km California climate modeling framework by leveraging regional mesh refinement (CARRM) using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s global Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) version 0. Four 5-year time periods (2015–2020, 2029–2034, 2044–2049, and 2094–2099) were simulated by nudging CARRM outside California to 1° coupled simulation of E3SMv1 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)5-8.5 future scenario. The 3.25 km grid spacing adds considerable value to the prediction of the California climate changes, including more realistic high temperatures in the Central Valley and much improved spatial distributions of precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and coastal stratocumulus. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CARRM simulation predicts widespread warming of 6–10 °C over most of California, a 38 % increase in statewide average 30 d winter–spring precipitation, a near-complete loss of the alpine snowpack, and a sharp reduction in shortwave cloud radiative forcing associated with marine stratocumulus by the end of the 21st century. We note a climatological wet precipitation bias for the CARRM and discuss possible reasons. We conclude that SCREAM RRM is a technically feasible and scientifically valid tool for climate simulations in regions of interest, providing an excellent bridge to global convection-permitting simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fragmentation hierarchy of bright sungrazing comets and the birth and orbital evolution of the Kreutz System. II. the case for cascading fragmentation

We examine the process of cascading fragmentation for the Kreutz sungrazer system to continue our exploration of its birth, orbital evolution, and temporal clumping. We modify and broaden the two-superfragment model from Paper I to include clusters of ~30 bright comets spanning four centuries and 1000 SOHO sungrazers from 1996 to 2006. The spectacular parent sungrazer X/1106 C1 is assumed to have tidally split shortly after perihelion into a train of major protofragments immersed in a cloud of particulate debris, which at larger heliocentric distances were breaking up nontidally over and over again. We describe potential evolutionary paths for the Kreutz system by linking X/1106 C1 in subgroup I-type orbit with the comet of February 423 in one scenario or with the comet of February 467 in another. The latter scenario accounts for sungrazer clusters in as early as the 16th century, suggests that the progenitor object may have been observed as the comet of 214 BCE, is quite consistent with the orbital distribution of the SOHO sungrazers that sample the central filament of the Kreutz system between the clusters of major sungrazers, and predicts future clusters until ~2120. Comet X/1106 C1 and the common parent of C/1882 R1 and C/1965 S1 were two first-generation fragments of the progenitor that split nontidally on the way to its 5th century perihelion, reminiscent of the superfragments in Paper I. We provide computational tools needed for solving the problem of the Kreutz system’s orbital evolution, but no unique scenarios are presented for the individual comets. Another cluster of bright sungrazers is expected to arrive in the coming decades, its earliest member possibly just several years from now.

Chodas, Paul W.↗

60 years of science in ICF: from conception to scientific breakeven on the National Ignition Facility

The recent achievements of a burning plasma, fusion ignition, and scientific energy gain with deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) represents a major milestone in the development of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and all of fusion research. In these experiments, fuel pressures well in excess of hundreds of GBars were achieved in the compressed fuel, and robust alpha heating of the fuel, far in excess of the energy provided by the implosion, were demonstrated for the first time. These achievements occurred 60 years after the inception of ICF and the first laser demonstration, and were made possible by more than five decades of research at laser facilities around the world. Advances in laser technology both in wavelength and precision, motivated by improved understanding of laser-plasma interaction physics and the demands of targets; improvements in target fabrication inspired by the need to control and minimize hydrodynamic instabilities in the implosion; and multi-dimensional simulations and diagnostics have been critical to this achievement. This paper will summarize the scientific and technical advances, the surprises, and the challenges that had to be overcome to achieve these goals.

fusion↗