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NASA NTRS1997

Evolution of Structure in the Intergalactic Medium and the Nature of the LY-Alpha Forest

We have performed a detailed statistical study of the evolution of structure in a photoionized intergalactic medium (IGM) using analytical simulations to extend the calculation into the mildly nonlinear density regime found to prevail at z = 3. Our work is based on a simple fundamental conjecture: that the probability distribution function of the density of baryonic diffuse matter in the universe is described by a lognormal (LN) random field. The LN distribution has several attractive features and follows plausibly from the assumption of initial linear Gaussian density and velocity fluctuations at arbitrarily early times. Starting with a suitably normalized power spectrum of primordial fluctuations in a universe dominated by cold dark matter (CDM), we compute the behavior of the baryonic matter, which moves slowly toward minima in the dark matter potential on scales larger than the Jeans length. We have computed two models that succeed in matching observations. One is a nonstandard CDM model with OMEGA = 1, h = 0.5, and GAMMA = 0.3, and the other is a low-density flat model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), with OMEGA = 0.4, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) = 0.6, and h = 0.65. In both models, the variance of the density distribution function grows with time, reaching unity at about z = 4, where the simulation yields spectra that closely resemble the Ly-alpha forest absorption seen in the spectra of high-z quasars. The calculations also successfully predict the observed properties of the Ly-alpha forest clouds and their evolution from z = 4 down to at least z = 2, assuming a constant intensity for the metagalactic UV background over this redshift range. However, in our model the forest is not due to discrete clouds, but rather to fluctuations in a continuous intergalactic medium. At z = 3; typical clouds with measured neutral hydrogen column densities N(sub H I) = 10(exp 13.3), 10(exp 13.5), and 10(exp 11.5) /sq cm correspond to fluctuations with mean total densities approximately 10, 1, and 0.1 times the universal mean baryon density. Perhaps surprisingly, fluctuations whose amplitudes are less than or equal to the mean density still appear as "clouds" because in our model more than 70% of the volume of the IGM at z = 3 is filled with gas at densities below the mean value.

Bi, Hongguang↗
NASA NTRS2022

Beyond Basic Drag in Interplanetary CME Modeling: Effects of Solar Wind Pileup and High-Speed Streams

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause severe space weather effects throughout our solar system. As a fast CME propagates through interplanetary space, it accumulates solar wind materials at its front. This pileup of materials, or CME-driven sheath, can be important in determining the geoeffectiveness of a CME. We take an existing arrival time model that includes expansion and deformation of the CME flux rope (ANTEATR; Kay & Gopalswamy, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA025780; Kay & Nieves-Chinchilla, 2021a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028911) and add a pileup procedure (PUP) as a physics-based approach to modeling the CME-driven sheath. ANTEATR-PUP solves the Rankine-Hugoniot equations for an oblique shock to determine the shock speed and sheath density, magnetic field, and temperature. The extra sheath mass affects the background drag calculation. Additionally, ANTEATR can now use any 1D profile for the background solar wind as opposed to the simple empirical models it previously relied upon. We present initial results from ANTEATR-PUP and compare with previous ANTEATR findings. Using results from an MHD simulation, we explore the effects of interactions with a static high-speed stream (HSS) on the CME's and sheath's interplanetary evolution. The drag forces essentially disappear while a CME remains within the HSS, but reappear stronger once the CME exits. The HSS-CME interaction produces the largest changes in the CME and sheath properties at 1 au when it occurs either close to the Sun near the inner simulation boundary at 0.1 au or right before the CME reaches 1 au. We estimate that these changes could significantly affect the geoeffectiveness.

C Kay↗
DOE OSTI2022

First Leptophobic Dark Matter Search from the Coherent–CAPTAIN-Mills Liquid Argon Detector

We report the first results of a search for leptophobic dark matter (DM) from the Coherent–CAPTAIN-Mills (CCM) liquid argon (LAr) detector. An engineering run with 120 photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) and 17.9 × 10 20 protons on target (POT) was performed in fall 2019 to study the characteristics of the CCM detector. The operation of this 10-ton detector was strictly light based with a threshold of 50 keV and used coherent elastic scattering off argon nuclei to detect DM. Despite only 1.5 months of accumulated luminosity, contaminated LAr, and nonoptimized shielding, CCM’s first engineering run has already achieved sensitivity to previously unexplored parameter space of light dark matter models with a baryonic vector portal. With an expected background of 115 005 events, we observe 115 005 + 16.5 events which is compatible with background expectations. For a benchmark mediator-to-DM mass ratio of m V B =m χ = 2.1, DM masses within the range 9 MeV ≲ m χ ≲ 50 MeV are excluded at 90% C. L. in the leptophobic model after applying the Feldman-Cousins test statistic. CCM’s upgraded run with 200 PMTs, filtered LAr, improved shielding, and 10 times more POT will be able to exclude the remaining thermal relic density parameter space of this model, as well as probe new parameter space of other leptophobic DM models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for top-philic heavy resonances in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text {TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search for the associated production of a heavy resonance with a top-quark or a top-antitop-quark pair, and decaying into a $\overline{tt}$ pair is presented. The search uses the data recorded by the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Events containing exactly one electron or muon are selected. The two hadronically decaying top quarks from the resonance decay are reconstructed using jets clustered with a large radius parameter of R = 1. The invariant mass spectrum of the two top quark candidates is used to search for a resonance signal in the range of 1.0 TeV to 3.2 TeV. The presence of a signal is examined using an approach with minimal model dependence followed by a model-dependent interpretation. No significant excess is observed over the background expectation. Upper limits on the production cross section times branching ratio at 95% confidence level are provided for a heavy Z' boson based on a simplified model, for Z' mass between 1.0 TeV and 3.0 TeV. The observed (expected) limits range from 21 (14) fb to 119 (86) fb depending on the choice of model parameters

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Black hole induced false vacuum decay: the role of greybody factors

We study false vacuum decay catalyzed by black holes. We consider a toy two-dimensional model of a scalar field with an unstable potential in the background of a dilaton black hole. A realistic black hole in four dimensions possesses the potential barrier for linear field perturbations. We model this barrier — the greybody factor — for spherically-symmetric perturbations in the toy model by adding a coupling between the scalar field and dilaton. We compute analytically the decay rate for the black hole in thermal equilibrium (Hartle-Hawking state) and for the radiating black hole in empty space (Unruh state). Our results show that, contrary to the Hartle-Hawking vacuum, the decay probability of the Unruh vacuum remains exponentially suppressed at all black hole temperatures. We argue that this result holds also in four dimensions.

2D Gravity↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Surface Heating Heterogeneity on Boundary Layer Height and Its Dependence on Background Wind Speed

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a fundamental variable of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The effect of surface heterogeneity is challenging in the PBL parameterization for numerical weather and climate models. Here we use large eddy simulation data to investigate the impact of surface heating heterogeneity on the PBLH spatial variations and mean values over a domain of typical mesoscale model grid size. It is found that this impact depends on background wind condition. Variance decomposition and Fourier spectra both reveal that for the fully developed sheared convective PBL, surface heterogeneity contributes little to the spatial variation of PBLH, except for the case with heterogeneity scale of 14.4 km. This suggests that surface heterogeneity with length scales less than ~10 km, which is typical for mesoscale modeling, does not induce significant subgrid spatial variation of PBLH. The domain-averaged PBLH is found to generally increase as surface heterogeneity scale decreases, until reaching the scale on the order of PBLH. The findings can be used to inform the parameterization development of PBL processes over heterogeneous surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Quenching of the beam-plasma instability by large-scale density fluctuations in 3 dimensions

The highly variable, yet low, level of Langmuir waves measured in situ by spacecraft when electron beams associated with type III solar bursts are passing by are addressed by a model based on the existence of large scale density fluctuations capable of sufficiently diffusing small-k beam-unstable Langmuir waves in phase space. The model is also informed by the presence of a significant isotropic nonthermal tail in the distribution function of the background electron population, which is capable of stabilizing larger k modes. The model is able to predict various levels of Langmuir waves, depending on the parameters; calculations indicate that, for realistic parameters, the most unstable small k modes are fully stabilized, while some oblique mode with higher k and lower growth rate may remain unstable.

Muschietti, L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Emulating a flexible space structure: Modeling

Control Dynamics, in conjunction with Marshall Space Flight Center, has participated in the modeling and testing of Flexible Space Structures. Through the series of configurations tested and the many techniques used for collecting, analyzing, and modeling the data, many valuable insights have been gained and important lessons learned. This paper discusses the background of the Large Space Structure program, Control Dynamics' involvement in testing and modeling of the configurations (especially the Active Control Technique Evaluation for Spacecraft (ACES) configuration), the results from these two processes, and insights gained from this work.

Waites, H. B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Conventional and Constrained Variational Methods for Computing Large-Scale Budgets and Forcing Fields

Analyses of atmospheric heat and moisture budgets serve as an effective tool to study convective characteristics over a region and to provide large-scale forcing fields for various modeling applications. This paper examines two popular methods for computing large-scale atmospheric budgets: the conventional budget method (CBM) using objectively gridded analyses based primarily on radiosonde data and the constrained variational analysis (CVA) approach which supplements vertical profiles of atmospheric fields with measurements at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface to conserve mass, water, energy, and momentum. Successful budget computations are dependent on accurate sampling and analyses of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the divergence field associated with convection and the large-scale circulation that influences it. Utilizing analyses generated from data taken during Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign conducted over the central Indian Ocean from October to December 2011, we evaluate the merits of these budget approaches and examine their limitations. While many of the shortcomings of the CBM, in particular effects of sampling errors in sounding data, are effectively minimized with CVA, accurate large-scale diagnostics in CVA are dependent on reliable background fields and rainfall constraints. Finally, for the DYNAMO analyses examined, the operational model fields used as the CVA background state provided wind fields that accurately resolved the vertical structure of convection in the vicinity of Gan Island. However, biases in the model thermodynamic fields were somewhat amplified in CVA resulting in a convective environment much weaker than observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable boosted-decision-tree analysis for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator is a leading experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay with high purity germanium detectors (HPGe). Machine learning provides a new way to maximize the amount of information provided by these detectors, but the data-driven nature makes it less interpretable compared to traditional analysis. An interpretability study reveals the machine's decision-making logic, allowing us to learn from the machine to feedback to the traditional analysis. In this work, we have presented the first machine learning analysis of the data from the Majorana Demonstrator; this is also the first interpretable machine learning analysis of any germanium detector experiment. Two gradient boosted decision tree models are trained to learn from the data, and a game-theory-based model interpretability study is conducted to understand the origin of the classification power. By learning from data, this analysis recognizes the correlations among reconstruction parameters to further enhance the background rejection performance. By learning from the machine, this analysis reveals the importance of new background categories to reciprocally benefit the standard Majorana analysis. This model is highly compatible with next-generation germanium detector experiments like LEGEND since it can be simultaneously trained on a large number of detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Classification of compact objects and model comparison using EOS knowledge

Nuclear theory and experiments, alongside astrophysical observations, constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supranuclear-dense matter. Conversely, knowledge of the EOS allows an improved interpretation of nuclear or astrophysical data. In this article, we use several established constraints on the EOS and the new NICER measurement of PSR J0437-4715 to comment on the nature of the primary companion in GW230529 and the companion of PSR J0514-4002E. We find that, with a probability of ≳84% and ≳68%, respectively, both objects are black holes. These likelihoods increase to above 95% when one uses GW170817’s remnant as an upper limit on the TOV mass. We also demonstrate that the current knowledge of the EOS substantially disfavors high masses and radii for PSR J⁢0030+0451, inferred recently when combining NICER with XMM-Newton background data and using particular hot-spot models. Lastly, we also use our obtained EOS knowledge to comment on measurements of the nuclear symmetry energy, finding that the large value predicted by the PREX-II measurement displays some mild tension with other constraints on the EOS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Model and Satellite-Based Analysis of the Tropospheric Ozone Distribution in Clear Versus Convectively Cloudy Conditions

Satellite observations of in-cloud ozone concentrations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder instruments show substantial differences from background ozone concentrations. We develop a method for comparing a free-running chemistry-climate model (CCM) to in-cloud and background ozone observations using a simple criterion based on cloud fraction to separate cloudy and clear-sky days. We demonstrate that the CCM simulates key features of the in-cloud versus background ozone differences and of the geographic distribution of in-cloud ozone. Since the agreement is not dependent on matching the meteorological conditions of a specific day, this is a promising method for diagnosing how accurately CCMs represent the relationships between ozone and clouds, including the lower ozone concentrations shown by in-cloud satellite observations. Since clouds are associated with convection as well as changes in chemistry, we diagnose the tendency of tropical ozone at 400 hPa due to chemistry, convection and turbulence, and large-scale dynamics. While convection acts to reduce ozone concentrations at 400 hPa throughout much of the tropics, it has the opposite effect over highly polluted regions of South and East Asia.

Ozone Monitoring and Microwave Limb Sounder instru↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evolving starburst galaxies, faint number counts, and the 2 keV background

Blue and 60 micron extragalactic number counts and redshift distributions are modeled using evolutionary models in which galaxies periodically undergo transient starburst events. Support is found for the hypothesis that the same starburst phenomenon is responsible for the excess source counts seen at both wavelengths, though observed at lower mean redshift in the far infrared than in the blue. The soft X-ray emission from these evolving starburst events is not likely to exceed the 2 keV background unless the evolutionary rate is greater than (1 + z)-cubed (luminosity or density evolution) and the redshift of galaxy formation is greater than about five.

Lonsdale, C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

On the ultrasoft X-ray background

The soft X-ray background has been studied down to energies of the order of 90 eV. The spectrum is found to be extremely soft, though not as steeply rising toward very low energies as indicated by Yentis et al. (1972). The background is both softer and more intense at high northern galactic latitudes than at low latitudes. Measured pulse-height spectra are analyzed under the assumption of different source models. The results are consistent with an origin of the background in a hot interstellar plasma with a temperature of about 800,000 K and a hot electron density of approximately 0.001 per cu cm. Upper limits are set on the soft X-ray emission from several interesting stellar objects.

Levine, A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cluster growth modeling of plateau erosion

The pattern of erosion of a plateau along an escarpment may be modeled usng cluster growth techniques, recently popularized in models of drainage network evolution. If erosion on the scarp takes place in discrete events at rates subject to local substrate strength, the whole range of behavior is described by a combination of three cluster growth mechanisms: invasion percolation, Eden growth and diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA). These model the relative importance of preexisting substrate strength, background weathering, and seepage weathering and erosion respectively. The rate of seepage processes is determined by the efflux of groundwater at the plateau margin, which in turn is determined by the pressure field in the plateau aquifer. If this process acted alone, it would produce erosion patterns in the form of Laplacian fractals, with groundwater recharge from a distant source, or Poissionian fractals, with groundwater recharge uniform over the plateau. DLA is used to mimic the Laplacian or Poissonian potential field and the corresponding seepage growth process. The scaling structure of clusters grown by pure DLA, invasion percolation, or Eden growth is well known; this study presents a model which combines all three growth mechanisms for the first time. Mixed growth processes create clusters with different scaling properties and morphologies over distinct length scale ranges, and this is demonstrable in natural examples of plateau erosion.

Stark, Colin P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmic Axion Background detection using resonant cavity arrays

The axion is a well-motivated and generic extension of the Standard Model. If produced in the early universe, axions may still be relativistic today, forming a Cosmic Axion Background (CaB) potentially detectable in direct detection experiments. Although CaB is expected to be broadband, which makes it challenging to be detected, a high-quality-factor microwave cavity acts as a narrowband filter with response peaked at its resonant frequency. We propose a new strategy using multi-cavity arrays to distinguish signal from background noise by exploiting spatial correlations of the axion-induced electric field which are set by the cavity quality factor. We compute the two-point correlation function for electric fields in spatially separated cavities sourced by an isotropic CaB. Analyzing various cavity geometries, we find that stacked, wide-base cavity arrays offer coherent enhancement of the axion signal. We apply our formalism to prospective upgrades of the ADMX experiment, including configurations with four and eighteen coupled cavities. Although these arrays do not achieve a coherent enhancement, optimizing the geometry could potentially yield an $\mathcal{O}(1)$ improvement in the sensitivity to the CaB.

Axions and ALPs↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on cosmology and baryonic feedback with joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data and ACT DR6 thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect observations

We present a joint analysis of weak gravitational lensing (shear) data obtained from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect measurements from a combination of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and Planck data. A combined analysis of shear (which traces the projected mass) with the tSZ effect (which traces the projected gas pressure) can jointly probe both the distribution of matter and the thermodynamic state of the gas, accounting for the correlated effects of baryonic feedback on both observables. We detect the shear$~\times~$tSZ cross-correlation at a 21$\sigma$ significance, the highest to date, after minimizing the bias from cosmic infrared background leakage in the tSZ map. By jointly modeling the small-scale shear auto-correlation and the shear$~\times~$tSZ cross-correlation, we obtain $S_8 = 0.811^{+0.015}_{-0.012}$ and $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.263^{+0.023}_{-0.030}$, results consistent with primary CMB analyses from Planck and P-ACT. We find evidence for reduced thermal gas pressure in dark matter halos with masses $M < 10^{14} \, M_{\odot}/h$, supporting predictions of enhanced feedback from active galactic nuclei on gas thermodynamics. A comparison of the inferred matter power suppression reveals a $2-4\sigma$ tension with hydrodynamical simulations that implement mild baryonic feedback, as our constraints prefer a stronger suppression. Finally, we investigate biases from cosmic infrared background leakage in the tSZ-shear cross-correlation measurements, employing mitigation techniques to ensure a robust inference. Our code is publicly available on GitHub.

Pandey, S. [Johns Hopkins U.; Columbia U.] (ORCID:↗