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DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying dispersity in size and shape of nanoparticles from small-angle scattering data using machine learning based CREASE

Here, we use machine learning (ML) enhanced computational reverse engineering analysis of scattering experiments (CREASE) to interpret small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data obtained from a system of nanoparticles without a priori knowledge of their exact shapes (e.g. spheres or ellipsoids), sizes (0.5–50 nm) and distributions. The SAXS measurements yielded three categories of scattering profiles exhibiting 'strong', 'weak' and 'no' features. Diminishing features (e.g. broadening or disappearing peaks) in scattering profiles have always been attributed to the presence of significant dispersity in the system. Such featureless SAXS data are not suitable for traditional analysis using analytical models. If one were to fit a relevant analytical model (e.g. the lmfit analytical model for polydisperse spheres) to these 'weak' and 'no' SAXS profiles from our nanoparticle systems, one would obtain non-unique interpretations of the data. Relying on electron microscopy to identify the distributions of nanoparticle shapes and sizes is also unfeasible, especially in high-throughput synthesis and characterization loops. In such situations, to identify the distributions of particle sizes and shapes that could be present in the sample, one must rely on methods like ML-CREASE to interpret the data quickly and output all relevant interpretations about the structure present in the system. The ML-CREASE optimization loop takes the experimental scattering profile as input and outputs multiple candidate solutions whose computed scattering profiles match the SAXS profile input. The ML-CREASE method outputs distributions of relevant structural features, such as the volume fraction of the nanoparticles in the system and the mean and standard deviation of the particle size and aspect ratio, assuming a type of distribution (e.g. normal, log-normal) for size and aspect ratio. We find that, for the SAXS profiles analyzed here, accounting for the shape dispersity along with size dispersity of the nanoparticles using ML-CREASE improved the match between the computed scattering profiles and input experimental profiles.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electron Paramagentic Resonance Investigation of Mechanism of Light- and Elevated-Temperature-Induced Degradation in Ga-doped Cz Si

We report on the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectra recorded at 6 K for Ga-doped Czochralski (Cz) Si in the initial stages of light- and elevated-temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). We show that the narrow-range EPR spectrum depends on the duration of simultaneous heat and light exposure. After prolonged LeTID, the EPR intensity increases at ~334 mT. The EPR signature at ~334 mT is characteristic of Si dangling bonds, and the increase in the dangling bond density can be attributed to the bulk and not the surface. Additionally, we show that the inverse of the minority carrier lifetime in Ga-doped Cz Si samples, measured by quasi-steady-state photoconductance (QSSPC) decay, correlates with the increase in the intensity of the Si dangling bond signal measured by EPR. Based on these observations, we put forth a hypothesis connecting H to LeTID and the corresponding defect structure.

Cz Si↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wastewater Disposal Has Not Significantly Altered the Regional Stress State in Southern Kansas

Wastewater disposal is primarily responsible for the increased seismicity rate since ~2013 in southern Kansas. Previous work that used shear-wave splitting (SWS) in southern Kansas interpreted an ~90° temporal rotation in the fast polarization direction and attributed it to increased pore pressures resulting from fluid injection. However, this interpreted rotation coincided with a change in the stations used to make the SWS measurements. We investigate the temporal variability of fast azimuths in southern Kansas by making SWS measurements on earthquake families with similar source–receiver paths recorded on a stable local seismic network. We select high-quality SWS measurements by investigating the stability of results across 65 different frequency bands between 0.5 and 15 Hz. We find that the fast polarization direction in southern Kansas is relatively constant with an average east-northeast (~N79°E) orientation between 2014 and 2017. Our fast polarization measurements are primarily a reflection of the maximum principal horizontal stress direction (SHmax). We observe a slight spatial change in SHmax to the northeast (~N55°E) near the Nemaha ridge in Oklahoma. However, we do not observe any significant temporal rotation of SHmax or variation in delay time (i.e., crack density) in southern Kansas, contrary to the earlier study. The previously interpreted ~90° rotation may either be a reflection of a very local stress change or a misinterpretation of SWS results potentially due to the use of inconsistent source–receiver paths. Our SWS measurements cover the period of peak wastewater disposal and seismicity rates and suggest an absence of significant temporal rotations in the local anisotropy and stress orientations associated with wastewater disposal.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS1983

Active Control of Space Structures (ACOSS) model 2

A complete description of the active control of space structures model #2 which is a simple but realistic evaluation model is given. The design of this system was driven by the desire to incorporate certain attributes into the overall system characteristics. The desired features were structural design based on realistic sizes and weights; a simple unclassified optical system with associated performance measures and tolerance; and a set of disturbances typical of equipment vibration and attitude control (slew). The resulting model is described in detail along with the resulting mode shapes and natural frequencies of the system. A description of the line-of-sight performance measure including theory and implementation is given.

Henderson, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Middle atmospheric electrodynamic modification by particle precipitation at the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly

Evidence for a localized middle atmospheric electrodynamic modification at low latitudes (southern Brazilian coast) of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), in association with enhanced geomagnetic activity, are presented in a unified way combining recent observational efforts and related numerical studies. They involve a distortion effect in the fair weather electric field at balloon altitudes. This effect is attributed to a local intensification of energetic electron precipitation through a related middle atmospheric ionization enhancement and is elucidated by numeric simulation. From the electric field measurements and the numeric simulation, the intensification of precipitation is considered to occur in fairly narrow regions at the observed low L values (around L = 1.13) of the SAMA, with horizontal extensions of the order of a few hundred kilometers. A physical mechanism that could be responsible for this sort of intensification is suggested. Furthermore, a comparison of the phenomenon of middle atmospheric electrodynamic modification at the SAMA with a similar one at auroral latitudes, in response to enhanced solar and geomagnetic activity, is also given.

Gonzalez, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Anomalous swelling behavior of FM 5055 carbon phenolic composite

The swelling response of a typical carbon phenolic composite was measured in the three primary material directions. The data obtained sugrest that at low and high relative humidities the incremental increase in moisture absorption can be attributed primarily to the resin. At intermediate relative humidities, the water is moving largely into the carbonized fibers.

Stokes, E. H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Combined Effects of Spaceflight and Age in Astronauts as Assessed by Areal Bone Mineral Density [BMD] and Trabecular Bone Score

Spaceflight is a potential risk factor for secondary osteoporosis in astronauts. Although lumbar spine (LS) BMD declines rapidly, more than expected for age, there have been no fragility fractures in astronauts that can clearly be attributed to spaceflight. Recently, astronauts have been returning from 6‐month spaceflights with absolute BMD still above young adult mean BMD. In spite of these BMD measurements, we project that the rapid loss in bone mass over long‐duration spaceflight affects the bone microarchitecture of the LS which might predispose astronauts to premature vertebral fractures. Thus, we evaluated TBS, a novel texture index correlated with vertebral bone microarchitecture, as a means of monitoring changes to bone microarchitecture in astronauts as they age. We previously reported that TBS detects an effect of spaceflight (~6‐month duration), independent of BMD, in 51 astronauts (47+/‐4 y) (Smith et al, J Clin Densitometry 2014). Hence, TBS was evaluated in serial DXA scans (Hologic Discovery W) conducted triennially in all active and retired astronauts and more frequently (before spaceflight, after spaceflight and until recovery) in the subset of astronauts flying 4‐6‐ month missions. We used non‐linear models to describe trends in observations (BMD or TBS) plotted as a function of astronaut age. We fitted 1175 observations of 311 astronauts, pre‐flight and then postflight starting 3 years after landing or after astronaut's BMD for LS was restored to within 2% of preflight BMD. Observations were then grouped and defined as follows: 1) LD: after exposure to at least one long‐duration spaceflight > 100 days and 2) SD: before LD and after exposure to at least one short-duration spaceflight < 30 days. Data from males and females were analyzed separately. Models of SD observations revealed that TBS and BMD had similar curvilinear declines with age for both male and female astronauts. However, models of LD observations showed TBS declining with age while BMD appeared stable or trending upward. For females (n=8) LD observations were too few to discern a trend. Notably, models describing trends in TBS appeared to be more sensitive to the effects of age than the models for BMD. We conclude that TBS may provide an additional index for the lumbar spine to monitor the combined changes due to spaceflight and due to aging. This increased knowledge may enhance the ability to identify an intervention trigger for premature vertebral fractures in astronauts.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Flight Software for the LADEE Mission

LADEE↗

NASA NTRS2015

LADEE Preparations for Contingency Operations for the Lunar Orbit Insertion Maneuver

The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) spacecraft was launched on September 6, 2013, and completed its mission on April 17, 2014 with a directed impact to the Lunar Surface. Its primary goals were to examine the lunar atmosphere, measure lunar dust, and to demonstrate high rate laser communications. The LADEE mission was a resounding success, achieving all mission objectives, much of which can be attributed to careful planning and preparation. This paper discusses the specific preparations for fault conditions that could occur during a highly-critical phase of the mission. To get to the Moon, the spacecraft traversed multiple phasing loops around the Earth, and then executed a breaking maneuver to achieve lunar orbit. This Lunar Orbit Insertion (LOI) maneuver was perhaps the most time-critical phase of the entire mission. The LOI maneuver had to occur within a twenty minute window in order to achieve lunar orbit with an acceptable amount of propellant remaining. Missing this window would have likely resulted in a loss of the entire mission. An additional challenge of the maneuver was that spacecraft was out of view for approximately one hour prior to the main thruster burn, with the burn needing to occur within five minutes after coming into view. These conditions resulted in unique challenges for ground operations and the fault management system. Early in the planning stages of the mission, the criticality and challenges of this maneuver were evident to the system designers. The major concern was that any triggering of the on-board fault management system, whether it is in response to a true fault or a false positive, would result in an unacceptable delay to the burn. Therefore the flight software was designed with a flexible fault management system, such that any or all of the fault management responses could be disabled for the lead up and execution of the maneuver. Later, a triage was conducted to develop a list of fault responses, mapped to various parts of the timeline of the maneuver. Some of these contingency responses were solely ground-based if the time to detect, diagnose, and respond were adequate. Other responses were automated on-board if the response time from the ground would have been inadequate. For instance, in order to recover from a system reboot, on-board automation would have automatically reconfigured the spacecraft for the burn and reoriented the spacecraft to the burn attitude.These contingency responses were practiced, over and over, during numerous rehearsals. Although the LOI maneuver was executed without having to use any of these contingencies, the LADEE team was adequately prepared for this highly critical phase of the mission.

Cannon, Howard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decoupling the Effects of Anthropogenic Emission Reductions from the Meteorology and Natural Emissions in TROPOMI NO 2 Retrievals During the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdowns

Satellite measurements during the COVID-19 lockdowns that began in 2020 revealed unprecedented reductions in NO 2 tropospheric vertical column densities (VCD). These reductions have largely been attributed to reduced anthropogenic emissions associated with abrupt decreases in road traffic and other power consuming business activities. Although decreased emissions tended to be the main contributor to the observed NO 2 VCD reduction, meteorological variability also played a role. Whereas the observed VCD changes were predominantly negative in places where public health policies were strictly enforced, meteorology had both positive and negative effects over short time intervals. Here, we present results from a global study of the NO 2 reductions aimed at disentangling the meteorological and natural emission variability from the anthropogenic emissions over the world’s most populated megacities. For this study, NASA’s TROPOMI NO 2 algorithm was used in conjunction with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model to separate the contributions due emissions and meteorology. A priori NO 2 profiles were generated from two GMI simulations performed for 2020 at a resolution of 0.25° longitude x 0.25° latitude. The first simulation used updated, COVID-impacted NOX emissions based on Forster et al. (2020), while the second simulation used the 2019 emissions with the 2020 meteorology, referred to here as 2020BAU. The 2020BAU data set allowed for the decoupling of the emission component from the meteorology. When compared to the same period in 2019, NO 2 column amounts during the lockdowns were reduced in 35 out of 36 cities. While reduced emissions contributed most to the observed total change in NO 2 during the lockdowns, the effects of meteorology were significant, ranging between 40% (Chennai) and 15% (Beijing). In China, an increase in NO 2 levels due to meteorology were observed in five out of the seven cities considered in the study. Use of different a-priori NO 2 profiles from the two simulations in our TROPOMI retrievals allowed for a determination of retrieval errors that ranged from -1.7% to -11.0%. We used the quality assurance flag > 0.75 to select the highest quality scenes in the study period. Using the GMI, we estimated the sampling biases to be in the range -11% to 10% of the total change for the cities in our study.

Brad Fisher↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reactive flash sintering and characterization of bulk high entropy nitrides

Over the past decade, numerous high-entropy ceramics have been synthesized, often displaying attractive properties. However, the study on facile preparation of bulk high entropy nitrides (HEN) are limited, despite its broad potential applications. This research demonstrates for the first time rapid fabrication (within ∼6 min) of bulk high-entropy nitrides, especially (Al 0.17 Nb 0.17 Ta 0.17 Ti 0.32 Zr 0.17 )N, from binary nitride powder mixtures using a highly efficient reactive flash sintering (RFS) technique. X-ray diffraction (XRD) shows the HENs from RFS are near single-phase solid solutions with a rock salt crystal structure, while in situ synchrotron study carried out during RFS captured in real time the formation of HEN, which was preserved upon cooling, suggesting thermodynamic stability of the HEN phase, even up to extreme pressure (∼35.6 GPa). Microscopic analyses using SEM, STEM, and EDS reveal decent uniformity for HEN with no obvious segregation of elements, even to submicron scale. Some properties of the obtained bulk HENs are consistent with expectations. For example, their hardness and bulk modulus are close to estimates based on rule-of-mixture (ROM) values from the constituent binary nitrides. Meanwhile, some other measured properties seem to show surprises. For example, the fracture toughness for the HENs (e.g., 7.81 ± 1.40 MPa•m 1/2 or higher) turns out to be more than double of the expected ROM estimates. The significantly improved fracture toughness is attributed to the observed nano-layered structure of the HENs, despite the HEN’s cubic crystal structure and high hardness. In addition, the oxidation resistance shows improvement up till ∼800°C, possibly due to Ta doping that suppress oxygen vacancy formation in the oxide shell, while the 5-metal HEN of (Al 0.17 Nb 0.17 Ta 0.17 Ti 0.32 Zr 0.17 )N displays superconductivity (T c of ∼5–7 K from magnetism and resistivity measurements, slightly lower than ROM estimate), despite insulating property of starting AlN. Furthermore, future study combining experimental investigation using larger samples to confirm the observed increase in fracture toughness and oxidation resistance, theoretical modeling at different length scale, and more detailed structural/chemical characterization, especially at the atomic scale, are all needed to fully understand the inter-relationships between composition, processing, structure, and novel properties for these HENs and the development of related new materials for different applications.

Flash sintering↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ozone measurements from the NOAA-9 and the Nimbus-7 satellites: Implications of short and long term variabilities

An overview is given of the measurements of total ozne and ozone profiles by the SBUV/2 instrument on the NOAA-9 spacecraft relative to similar measurements from the SBUV and TOMS instruments on Nimbus-7. It is shown that during the three year period from March 14, 1985, to February 28, 1988, when these data sets overlap, there have been significant changes in the calibrations of the three instruments which may be attributed to the drift of the NOSS-9 orbit to later equator crossing times (for SBUV/2). These changes in instrument characteristics have affected the absolute values of the trends derived from the three instruments, but their geophysical characteristics and response to short term variations are accurate and correlate well among the three instruments. For example, the total column ozone measured by the three instruments shows excellent agreement with respect to its day to day, seasonal, and latitudinal variabilities. At high latitudes, the day to day fluctuations in total ozone show a strong positive correlation with temperature in the lower stratosphere, as one might expect from the dynamical coupling of the two parameters at these latitudes.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

OH detection by Ford Motor Company

Two different methods for detection of OH are presented: a low pressure flow cell system and a frequency modulation absorption measurement. Using conventional absorption spectroscopy, detection limits were quoted of 1,000,000 OH molecules per cu cm using a 30-minute averaging time on the ground, and a 3-hour averaging time in the air for present apparatus in use. With the addition of FM spectroscopy at 1 GHz, a double-beam machine should permit detectable absorption of and an OH limit of 100,000 per cu cm in a 30-minute averaging time. In the low pressure system on which experiments are ongoing nonexponential time behavior was observed after the decay had progressed to about 0.3 of its original level; this was attributed to ion emission in the photomultiplier. A flame source with OH present at high concentration levels was used as a calibration. It was estimated that within the sampling chamber, 400,000 OH could be measured. With a factor-of-2 loss at the sampling orifice, this means detectability of 5 to 8 x 100,000 cu cm at the present time. This could be reduced by a factor of 2 in one hour averaging time; improvements in laser bandwidth and energy should provide another factor of 2 in sensitivity.

Wang, Charles C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Accidental Tide Gauge: A GPS Reflection Case Study from Kachemak Bay, Alaska

For the last decade, it has been known that reflected GPS signals observed with specialized instruments could be used to measure sea level. In this letter, data from an existing geodeticquality GPS site near Kachemak Bay, Alaska, are analyzed for a one-year time period. Daily sea-level variations are more than 7 m. Tidal coefficients have been estimated and compared with coefficients estimated from records from a traditional tide gauge at Seldovia Harbor, approximately 30 km away. The GPS and Seldovia estimates of M(sub 2) and S(sub 2) coefficients agree to better than 2%; much of this residual can be attributed to true differences in the tide over 30 km as it propagates up Kachemak Bay. For daily mean sea levels the agreement is 2.3 cm. Because a standard geodetic GPS receiver/antenna is used, this GPS instrument can measure long-term sea-level changes in a stable terrestrial reference frame.

GPS reflections↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mechanical and Structural Behavior of Granular Material Packed Beds for Space Life Support System Applications

Long-term human mission to space, such as living in International Space Station (ISS), Lunar, and Martian bases, and travel to Mars, must m ake use of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) to generate and recycle critical life supporting elements like oxygen and water. Oxygen Gen eration Assembly (OGA) and Water Processor Assembly (WPA), critical c omponents of ALSS, make use of series of granular material packed beds for generation and recycling of oxygen and water. Several granular m aterials can be used for generation, recycling, processing and recovery of oxygen and water. For example, they may include soft bed media, e.g. ion exchange resins for oxygen generation assembly and hard bed media such as, activated alumina, magchem (Magnesium oxide) and activa ted carbon to remove organic species like ethanol, methanol, and urea from wastewater in Water recovery/processing assembly. These beds are generally packed using a plate-spring mechanism to provide sufficien t compaction to the bed media throughout the course of operation. This paper presents results from an experimental study of a full-scale, 3 8.1 cm (15 inches) long and 3.7 cm (1.44 inches) diameter. activated alumina bed enclosed in a cylinder determining its force-displacement behavior, friction mobilizing force, and axial normal stress distribu tion under various axially applied loads and at different levels of packing. It is observed that force-displacement behavior is non-linear for low compaction level and becomes linear with increase in compaction of the bed media. Axial normal stress distribution along the length of the bed media decreased non-linearly with increase in depth from the loading end of the granular media. This paper also presents experimental results on the amount of particulates generated corresponding to various compaction levels. Particulates generated from each of the tests were measured using standard US sieves. It was found that the p articulates and the overall displacement of the bed media increased with decrease in initial compaction of the bed media. This effect could be attributed to the greater tendency for inter-particle sliding/rub bing due to smaller internal friction angles, as seen from the shear tests, at lesser initial compacted levels. Upon unloading, it was obse rved that there was no change in displacement (especially rebounding) in the bed media. This effect could be attributed to the fact that th e porous activated alumina particles fracture/break upon increase in applied load (during loading phase) and occupy void spaces in between the material grains; thereby leading to settling of the media. The lo ad-displacement curve becomes more linear with increase in initial compaction of the bed media. It is concluded that compaction considerabl y affects the load-displacement behavior of the bed media. A series of tests were also conducted on the packed bed media to determine the f orce required to mobilize the friction between the bed media and the housing cylinder. The results from these tests showed the existence of significant friction between the bed media and the encasing stainles s steel cylinder. Further, it was found that friction effects were more pronounced for media with higher initial compaction. Internal frict ion of the granular media was measured using direct shear apparatus. It was observed that the internal friction increased with increase in initial compaction of the bed media. In this study, a computational m odel (CM) is also developed using finite element software ANSYS to verify experimental results obtained for the distribution of the axial n ormal stress and axial displacement along the length of the full-scal e activated alumina bed media. In the computational model, the granular material is considered to have appropriate failure and frictional c ontact exists between the wall and the granular media. It is observed that the model predicts results closely with the experimental method. The compational results show that the axial normal stress distribution along the length of the activated alumina media decreases non-linea rly from the loading end and is negligible beyond a certain depth. Th is can be attributed to the existence of friction between the walls and the media and that the friction takes up most of the applied load.

Malla, Ramesh B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy variation of double K -shell photoionization of Ne

Herein we report on an experimental and theoretical study of double K-shell photoionization of Ne over the 2.3–8.5 keV x-ray energy range. The ratio of double-to-single K-shell photoionization cross sections was determined experimentally by measuring the relative rates of the KK–KL 2,3 L 2,3 ( 2 D) Auger hypersatellite and the K–L 2,3 L 2,3 ( 1 D) diagram Auger transitions. By scaling the hypersatellite-diagram Auger-electron ratios to KK/K cross-section ratios, comparison was made with theoretical cross-section ratios of He-like Ne 8+ determined by the R matrix with pseudostates method. The experimental Ne and theoretical Ne 8+ cross-section ratios show similar variations with energy, but the experimental ratios systematically exceed the calculated ratios and also show a lower threshold energy for double K-shell photoionization onset compared to the computed Ne 8+ threshold. The discrepancy is attributed to effects of L-shell electrons not included in the He-like Ne 8+ calculations. Quantified scaling with nuclear charge Z along the He-like isoelectronic sequence indicates that the measured 10-electron Z = 10 double K-shell photoionization cross section behaves like the computed He-like Z = 8.9 cross section, suggesting an effective nuclear screening parameter of s L =1.1 by the additional eight outer L-shell electrons. Experimental results for the energy variations of Auger electron transitions from other multielectron hole states are also discussed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Controls on the CO2 seasonal cycle

Surface pressure measurement performed by the Viking landers show substantial variations in pressure on seasonal timescales that are characterized by two local minima and two local maxima. These variations have widely been attributed to the seasonal condensation and sublimation of CO2 in the two polar regions. It has been somewhat of a surprise that the amplitude of the minimum and maximum that is dominated by the CO2 cycle in the north was much weaker than the corresponding amplitude of the south-dominated extrema. Another surprise was that the seasonal pressure cycle during years 2 and 3 of the Viking mission was so similar to that for year 1, despite the occurrence of two global dust storms during year 1 and none during years 2 and 3. An energy balance model that incorporates dynamical factors from general circulation model (GCM) runs in which the atmospheric dust opacity and seasonal date were systematically varied was used to model the observed seasonal pressure variations. The energy balance takes account of the following processes in determining the rates of CO2 condensation and sublimation at each longitudinal and latitudinal grid point: solar radiation, infrared radiation from the atmosphere and surface, subsurface heat conduction, and atmospheric heat advection. Condensation rates are calculated both at the surface and in the atmosphere. In addition, the energy balance model also incorporates information from the GCM runs on seasonal redistribution of surface pressure across the globe. Estimates of surface temperature of the seasonal CO2 caps were used to define the infrared radiative losses from the seasonal polar caps. The seasonal pressure variations measured at the Viking lander sites were closely reproduced.

Pollack, J. B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly Attribution with Likelihood Compensation

This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a responsibility score indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.

Idé, Tsuyoshi↗