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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Integrated Multi-Satellite Evaluation for the Global Precipitation Measurement: Impact of Precipitation Types on Spaceborne Precipitation Estimation

Integrated multi-sensor assessment is proposed as a novel approach to advance satellite precipitation validation in order to provide users and algorithm developers with an assessment adequately coping with the varying performances of merged satellite precipitation estimates. Gridded precipitation rates retrieved from space sensors with quasi-global coverage feed numerous applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards caused by extreme events. Characterizing the error structure of satellite precipitation products is recognized as a major issue for the usefulness of these estimates. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission aims at unifying precipitation measurements from a constellation of low-earth orbiting (LEO) sensors with various capabilities to detect, classify and quantify precipitation. They are used in combination with geostationary observations to provide gridded precipitation accumulations. The GPM Core Observatory satellite serves as a calibration reference for consistent precipitation retrieval algorithms across the constellation. The propagation of QPE uncertainty from LEO active/passive microwave (PMW) precipitation estimates to gridded QPE is addressed in this study, by focusing on the impact of precipitation typology on QPE from the Level-2 GPM Core Observatory Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to the Microwave Imager (GMI) to Level-3 IMERG precipitation over the Conterminous U.S. A high-resolution surface precipitation used as a consistent reference across scales is derived from the ground radar-based Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor. While the error structure of the DPR, GMI and subsequent IMERG is complex because of the interaction of various error factors, systematic biases related to precipitation typology are consistently quantified across products. These biases display similar features across Level-2 and Level-3, highlighting the need to better resolve precipitation typology from space and the room for improvement in global-scale precipitation estimates. The integrated analysis and framework proposed herein applies more generally to precipitation estimates from sensors and error sources affecting low-earth orbiting satellites and derived gridded products.

Rainfall↗

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Model Intercomparison of the Impacts of Varying Cloud Droplet–Nucleating Aerosols on the Life Cycle and Microphysics of Isolated Deep Convection

The microphysical impacts of aerosol particles on scattered isolated deep convective cells near Houston, Texas, on 19 June 2013, are examined using multiple cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations initialized with vertical profiles of low and high concentrations of cloud droplet–nucleating aerosols. These simulations formed part of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) conducted by the Deep Convective Working Group of the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) initiative. Each CRM generated a field of convective cells representing those observed during the case study with varying degrees of accuracy. The Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac) cell-tracking algorithm was applied to each MIP CRM simulation to track relatively long-lived convective cells (20–60 min). Most of the CRMs produced similar aerosol loading impacts on the warm phase of tracked cell properties with reduced autoconversion and accretion growth of rain, increased cloud water, reduced rainfall, and reduced near-surface evaporation of rain. The sign of aerosol impacts on the warm-phase properties of the convective cells was also quite consistent over cell lifetimes with the greatest magnitude of influence in the first half of the life cycle in most CRMs. In contrast, the ice-phase response to aerosol loading was highly variable among CRMs and included increases or decreases in ice amounts at inconsistent stages of the cell life cycle and midlevel versus upper-level changes in ice. This intermodel variability in ice is indicative both of the complex indirect interactions between aerosols and ice-phase processes in deep convection and their associated parameterizations.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗

Confidentiality-preserving machine learning algorithms for soft-failure detection in optical communication networks

Automated fault management is at the forefront of next-generation optical communication networks. The increase in complexity of modern networks has triggered the need for programmable and software-driven architectures to support the operation of agile and self-managed systems. In these scenarios, the European Telecommunications Standards Institute zero-touch network and service management approach is imperative. The need for machine learning algorithms to process the large volume of telemetry data brings safety concerns as distributed cloud-computing solutions become the preferred approach for deploying reliable communication network automation. This paper’s contribution is twofold. First, we propose a simple yet effective method to guarantee the confidentiality of the telemetry data based on feature scrambling. The method allows the operation of third-party computational services without direct access to the full content of the collected data. Additionally, the effectiveness of four unsupervised machine learning algorithms for soft-failure detection is evaluated when applied to the scrambled telemetry data. The methods are based on factor analysis, principal component analysis, nonlinear principal component analysis, and singular value decomposition. Most dimensionality reduction algorithms have the common property that they can maintain similar levels of fault classification performance while hiding the data structure from unauthorized access. Evaluations of the proposed algorithms demonstrate this capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BioWires: Conductive DNA Nanowires in a Computationally-Optimized, Synthetic Biological Platform for Nanoelectronic Fabrication

DNA is an ideal template for a biological nanowire-it has a linear structure several atoms thick; it possesses addressable nucleobase geometry that can be precisely defined; and it is massively scalable into branched networks. Until now, the drawback of DNA as a conducting nanowire been, simply put, its low conductance. To address this deficiency, we extensively characterize a chemical variant of canonical DNA that exploits the affinity of natural cytosine bases for silver ions. We successfully construct chains of single silver ions inside double-stranded DNA, confirm the basic dC-Ag+-dC bond geometry and kinetics, and show length-tunability dependent on mismatch distribution, ion availability and enzyme activity. An analysis of the absorbance spectra of natural DNA and silver-binding, poly-cytosine DNA demonstrates the heightened thermostability of the ion chain and its resistance to aqueous stresses such as precipitation, dialysis and forced reduction. These chemically critical traits lend themselves to an increase in electrical conductivity of over an order of magnitude for 11-base silver-paired duplexes over natural strands when assayed by STM break junction. We further construct and implement a genetic pathway in the E. coli bacterium for the biosynthesis of highly ionizable DNA sequences. Toward future circuits, we construct a model of transcription network architectures to determine the most efficient and robust connectivity for cell-based fabrication, and we perform sequence optimization with a genetic algorithm to identify oligonucleotides robust to changes in the base-pairing energy landscape. We propose that this system will serve as a synthetic biological fabrication platform for more complex DNA nanotechnology and nanoelectronics with applications to deep space and low resource environments.

DNA↗

Plans for NASA Contributions to Position, Navigation, and Timing at the Moon

Dating back to the Apollo missions, navigation in cislunar space has traditionally been performed with radiometric tracking and orbit estimation in Earth-based systems. The selected landing zones for Apollo enabled direct to Earth line of sight. Up to the present day, lunar orbiting science missions continue to rely on Earth sensors and processing. The upcoming Artemis and science missions seek different objectives, including landing and traversing in lunar locations occulted from view by Earth. Sustaining a burgeoning and diverse lunar mission set requires in-situ navigation capabilities that do not rely exclusively on Earth-based tracking and provide accurate and timely position, navigation, and timing (PNT) knowledge defined in a lunar reference system. These missions prefer a seamless transition from Earth-centric to lunar-centric PNT systems to reduce complexity and size, weight, and power (SWaP) on their missions. NASA’s heritage in successful high-altitude Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) reception is informing an expanded Space Service Volume to the moon and the development of lower SWaP GNSS receivers for the lunar missions. To overcome the geometric restrictions from GNSS –from both limited Dilution of Precision at the moon and lunar occultation – NASA is pursuing PNT services from the Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation System (LCRNS) as part of the interoperable LunaNet architecture to provide lunar-centric navigation services. For situations that require additional sensors, e.g. hazard detection, NASA’s optical navigation algorithms and close-range topographic sensors combine with observables from LunaNet in autonomous navigation software that brings robustness to the PNT solution. This presentation will provide an overview of NASA’s LCRNS PNT services, high-altitude GNSS and close-range sensors, processing algorithms and performance analysis, as well as efforts underway to define the underpinning Lunar Reference System.

Cheryl J. Gramling↗

Investigations on RELAP5-3D to RELAP5-3D coupling methodology by PVMEXEC

In the framework of a BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) approach within the licensing process of a nuclear power plant, the need to extend the resources of nuclear system thermal-hydraulics codes, such as RELAP5-3D, arises to allow more detailed simulations of the complex 3D reality of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), either under normal steady-state or during various accident scenarios. Currently, it is not possible to achieve the same degree of detail for a whole nuclear system when it is simulated with RELAP5-3D and this is due to the inherent limitations in the number of components and volumes to be used for the analysis. For this reason, it is of extreme interest the use of tools for codes coupling that enable the use of different codes for the simulation of different portions of a system in a unified analysis. In this paper the attention will be focused on the decomposition of the thermal-hydraulic domain of a system into subsystems to be simulated by different instances of the same code (e.g. RELAP5-3D) coupled together by means of PVMEXEC program and parallel virtual machine (PVM) technology. Explicit and semi-implicit solution algorithms were used for the analyses. Among the analyzed cases, the following will be discussed in detail with the aim to provide additional guidelines for the use of the PVMEXEC tool: (i) the Edward's pipe blowdown test, (ii) a simplified countercurrent heat exchanger, (iii) different hydraulics and heat structure coupling schemes for a shell-tube heat exchanger and (iv) a three-task coupled model of an adaptation of the Christensen subcooled boiling experiment. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Three-dimensional reconstruction of neutron, gamma-ray, and x-ray sources using a cylindrical-harmonics expansion

Inertial confinement fusion capsule implosions produce neutron, gamma-ray, and x-ray emission, which are recorded by a variety of detectors, both time integrated and time resolved, to determine the performance of the implosion. Further, two-dimensional emission images from multiple directions can now be combined to infer three-dimensional structures in the implosion, such as the distribution of thermonuclear fuel density, carbon ablator, and impurities. Because of the cost and complexity of the imaging systems, however, only a few measurements can be made, so reconstructions of the source must be made from a limited number of views. Here, a cylindrical-harmonics decomposition technique to reconstruct the three-dimensional object from two views in the same symmetry plane is presented. In the limit of zero order, this method recovers the Abel inversion method. The detailed algorithms used for this characterization and the resulting reconstructed neutron source from an experiment collected at the National Ignition Facility are presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

Quantum simulation of real-space dynamics

Quantum simulation is a prominent application of quantum computers. While there is extensive previous work on simulating finite-dimensional systems, less is known about quantum algorithms for real-space dynamics. We conduct a systematic study of such algorithms. In particular, we show that the dynamics of a d-dimensional Schrödinger equation with η particles can be simulated with gate complexity O ~ (ηdFpoly(log(g'/ϵ))), where ϵ is the discretization error, g' controls the higher-order derivatives of the wave function, and F measures the time-integrated strength of the potential. Compared to the best previous results, this exponentially improves the dependence on ϵ and g' from poly(g'/ϵ) to poly(log(g'/ϵ)) and polynomially improves the dependence on T and d, while maintaining best known performance with respect to η. For the case of Coulomb interactions, we give an algorithm using η 3 (d + η)Tpoly(log(ηdTg'/(Δϵ)))/Δ one- and two-qubit gates, and another using η 3 (4d) d/2 Tpoly(log(ηdTg'/(Δϵ)))/Δ one- and two-qubit gates and QRAM operations, where T is the evolution time and the parameter Δ regulates the unbounded Coulomb interaction. We give applications to several computational problems, including faster real-space simulation of quantum chemistry, rigorous analysis of discretization error for simulation of a uniform electron gas, and a quadratic improvement to a quantum algorithm for escaping saddle points in nonconvex optimization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Analysis of degradation in residential battery energy storage systems for rate-based use-cases

This article examines the impact of residential battery energy storage (BES) systems' operational modes on the life (i.e. usable energy capacity) of the battery under several climatic conditions and battery chemistries. The sharp increase in residential BES installations has been a result of decreasing costs of batteries, increase in rate structures motivated applications such as solar self-consumption and time-of-use energy management, and customers purchasing these systems for backup power. While these different modes of operations provide a combination of increased bill savings, reliability of supply, and energy sustainability to the customer, their operational characteristics vary significantly between use-cases. Functional life of BES systems is known to be strongly dependent on their operating conditions. In this article, we analyze the operation of residential BES systems under different rate-based use-cases, for different battery chemistries and cell designs, and under different environmental conditions. This is conducted by simulating the control of BES operations using rate-based cycling algorithms and analyzing the prognosis of multiple battery lifetime models that consider complex nonlinear dependencies of operational stress factors such as state-of-charge, depth-of-discharge, and temperature on degradation. Significant variations in battery life are observed owing to the differences in characteristics of the uses-cases coupled with environmental conditions and battery chemistries. Such differences lead to the conclusion that choice of residential BES technologies and chemistries should account for their intended use-cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modeling and Analysis of Clean Energy and Storage Technologies (CRADA Final Report, Project 1)

The goal of this project is to provide Southern Company Services, Inc. ("Participant") with custom scripts that can be used to create an average PV energy production profile, calculate lifetime energy value, calculate capacity value, and calculate the resultant financial metrics considering those value streams. Secondly, a fuel-cell model will be added to the public version of System Advisor Model (SAM). This standalone technology will incorporate PV and battery storage, allowing the participant to model the interaction of these three technologies. By adding this capability to a public version of SAM, a broad audience will be able to consider the system performance and financial benefits of installing a fuel cell as a baseline generator with PV. Thirdly, automated dispatch algorithms will be developed and added to SAM. These algorithms will enable Southern Company to dispatch a DC-connected front-of-the-meter battery system while considering price signals and PV clipping behavior. By adding these capabilities to a public version of SAM, users will be able to consider more complex and realistic ways of dispatching a battery system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

SU-F-T-312: Identifying Distinct Radiation Therapy Plan Classes Through Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Plan Complexity Metrics

Purpose: To determine whether body site-specific treatment plans form unique “plan class” clusters in a multi-dimensional analysis of plan complexity metrics such that a single beam quality correction determined for a representative plan could be universally applied within the “plan class”, thereby increasing the dosimetric accuracy of a detector’s response within a subset of similarly modulated nonstandard deliveries. Methods: We collected 95 clinical volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans from four body sites (brain, lung, prostate, and spine). The lung data was further subdivided into SBRT and non-SBRT data for a total of five plan classes. For each control point in each plan, a variety of aperture-based complexity metrics were calculated and stored as unique characteristics of each patient plan. A multiple comparison of means analysis was performed such that every plan class was compared to every other plan class for every complexity metric in order to determine which groups could be considered different from one another. Statistical significance was assessed after correcting for multiple hypothesis testing. Results: Six out of a possible 10 pairwise plan class comparisons were uniquely distinguished based on at least nine out of 14 of the proposed metrics (Brain/Lung, Brain/SBRT lung, Lung/Prostate, Lung/SBRT Lung, Lung/Spine, Prostate/SBRT Lung). Eight out of 14 of the complexity metrics could distinguish at least six out of the possible 10 pairwise plan class comparisons. Conclusion: Aperture-based complexity metrics could prove to be useful tools to quantitatively describe a distinct class of treatment plans. Certain plan-averaged complexity metrics could be considered unique characteristics of a particular plan. A new approach to generating plan-class specific reference (pcsr) fields could be established through a targeted preservation of select complexity metrics or a clustering algorithm that identifies plans exhibiting similar modulation characteristics. Measurements and simulations will better elucidate potential plan-class specific dosimetry correction factors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Automatic Waveform Quality Control for Surface Waves Using Machine Learning

Surface-wave seismograms are widely used by researchers to study Earth’s interior and earthquakes. To extract information reliably and robustly from a suite of surface waveforms, the signals require quality control screening to reduce artifacts from signal complexity and noise. This process has usually been completed by human experts labeling each waveform visually, which is time consuming and tedious for large data sets. We explore automated approaches to improve the efficiency of waveform quality control processing by investigating logistic regression, support vector machines, K-nearest neighbors, random forests (RF), and artificial neural networks (ANN) algorithms. To speed up signal quality assessment, we trained these five machine learning (ML) methods using nearly 400,000 human-labeled waveforms. The ANN and RF models outperformed other algorithms and achieved a test accuracy of 92%. We evaluated these two best-performing models using seismic events from geographic regions not used for training. The results show that the two trained models agree with labels from human analysts but required only 0.4% of the time. Although the original (human) quality assignments assessed general waveform signal-to-noise, the ANN or RF labels can help facilitate detailed waveform analysis. Our investigations demonstrate the capability of the automated processing using these two ML models to reduce outliers in surface-wave-related measurements without human quality control screening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of Fast Charging Station Network for Electrified Ride-Hailing Services

Today's electric vehicle (EV) owners charge their vehicles mostly at home and seldom use public direct current fast charger (DCFCs), reducing the need for a large deployment of DCFCs for private EV owners. However, due to the emerging interest among transportation network companies to operate EVs in their fleet, there is great potential for DCFCs to be highly utilized and become economically feasible in the future. This paper describes a heuristic algorithm to emulate operation of EVs within a hypothetical transportation network company fleet using a large global positioning system data set from Columbus, Ohio. DCFC requirements supporting operation of EVs are estimated using the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection tool. Operation and installation costs were estimated using real-world data to assess the economic feasibility of the recommended fast charging stations. Results suggest that the hypothetical transportation network company fleet increases daily vehicle miles traveled per EV with less overall down time, resulting in increased demand for DCFC. Sites with overhead service lines are recommended for hosting DCFC stations to minimize the need for trenching underground service lines. A negative relationship was found between cost per unit of energy and fast charging utilization, underscoring the importance of prioritizing utilization over installation costs when siting DCFC stations. Although this preliminary analysis of the impacts of new mobility paradigms on alternative fueling infrastructure requirements has produced several key results, the complexity of the problem warrants further investigation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Intrepid MCMC: Metropolis-Hastings with exploration

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive to evaluate the associated density function. For such cases, MCMC has proven to be an invaluable tool. Random-walk Metropolis Methods (also known as Metropolis-Hastings (MH)), in particular, are highly popular for their simplicity, flexibility, and ease of implementation. However, most MH algorithms suffer from significant limitations when attempting to sample from distributions with multiple modes (particularly disconnected ones). Here, in this paper, we present Intrepid MCMC - a novel MH scheme that utilizes a simple coordinate transformation to significantly improve the mode-finding ability and convergence rate to the target distribution of random-walk Markov chains while retaining most of the simplicity of the vanilla MH paradigm. Through multiple examples, we showcase the improvement in the performance of Intrepid MCMC over vanilla MH for a wide variety of target distribution shapes. We also provide an analysis of the mixing behavior of the Intrepid Markov chain, as well as the efficiency of our algorithm for increasing dimensions. A thorough discussion is presented on the practical implementation of the Intrepid MCMC algorithm. Finally, its utility is highlighted through a Bayesian parameter inference problem for a two-degree-of-freedom oscillator under free vibration.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗