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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

A Featureless Infrared Transmission Spectrum for the Super-puff Planet Kepler-79d

Extremely low-density planets (“super-puffs”) are a small but intriguing subset of the transiting planet population. With masses in the super-Earth range (1 − 10 M{sub ⊕}) and radii akin to those of giant planets (> 4 R{sub ⊕}), their large envelopes may have been accreted beyond the water snow line and many appear to be susceptible to catastrophic mass loss. Both the presence of water and the importance of mass loss can be explored using transmission spectroscopy. Here, we present new Hubble space telescope WFC3 spectroscopy and updated Kepler transit depth measurements for the super-puff Kepler-79d. We do not detect any molecular absorption features in the 1.1 − 1.7 μm WFC3 bandpass, and the combined Kepler and WFC3 data are consistent with a flat-line model, indicating the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. We compare the shape of Kepler-79d’s transmission spectrum to predictions from a microphysical haze model that incorporates an outward particle flux due to ongoing mass loss. We find that photochemical hazes offer an attractive explanation for the observed properties of super-puffs like Kepler-79d, as they simultaneously render the near-infrared spectrum featureless and reduce the inferred envelope mass-loss rate by moving the measured radius (optical depth unity surface during transit) to lower pressures. We revisit the broader question of mass-loss rates for super-puffs and find that the age estimates and mass-loss rates for the majority of super-puffs can be reconciled if hazes move the photosphere from the typically assumed pressure of ∼10 mbar to ∼10 μbar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Initialization of a mesoscale model with satellite derived temperature profiles

The abilities of rawinsonde data and Tiros-N satellite derived temperature profile data to depict mesoscale precipitation accumulation are evaluated. Four mesoscale simulations using combinations of temperature, low-level wind, and low-level wind initialization were performed with the limited area mesoscale prediction system (LAMPS) model. Comparisons of the simulations with operational LFM forecast accumulations reveal that the LAMPS model simulations provide a better depiction of the observed precipitation accumulation than the LFM forecasts, and the satellite temperature profiles produce better mesoscale precipitation accumulation forecasts than the rawinsonde temperature data.

Kalb, Michael W.↗

Applications of MST radars: Meteorological applications

Applications of mesosphere stratosphere troposphere radar to mesoscale meteorology are discussed. The applications include using the radar either as a research tool to improve our understanding of certain dynamical systems or as part of a network used to provide input data for weather forecasting. The workhorse of the operational observing network is the radiosonde balloon which provides measurements of pressure, temperature, humidity, and winds up to heights of 16 to 20 km. Horizontal and vertical measurement capabilities, reflectivity data, derivable quantities and parameters, and special operational requirements are surveyed.

Larsen, M. F.↗

On the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle

Recently, HIRS2/MSU data have been used at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) to generate global precipitation estimates. A synergistic mix of the GLA precipitation, together with the global wind and moisture fields produced by the Global Data Assimilation System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, was employed to delineate the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle during the 1978/79 Northern Hemisphere winter and the 1979 Northern Hemisphere summer. The transport of water vapor from source to sink regions was illustrated geographically by a combination of the divergent component of water vapor transport and precipitation.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

Sensitivity Studies for Assimilated Ozone Profiles

An ozone data assimilation system at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) produces three-dimensional global ozone fields. They are obtained by assimilating ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line parameterized chemistry and transport model. In this talk we focus on the quality of lower stratospheric assimilated ozone profiles. Ozone in the lower stratosphere plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the lower stratosphere are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. We investigate the sensitivity of assimilated ozone profiles to changes in a variety of system inputs: TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, forecast and observations error covariance models, inclusion or omission of a parameterized chemistry model, and different versions of DAO assimilated wind fields used to drive the transport model. Comparisons of assimilated ozone fields with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Interpretive Tools for Analysis of Coronal Images

Contents include list of publications resulting from grant: Magneto-Hydrodynamic Model of the Solar Corona and Interplanetary Medium. Coronal magnetic field topology and source of fast solar wind. Geophysical Importance of Global Magnetic Field Geometry and Density Distribution in Solar Wind Modeling. Empirical Model of the Corona-Solar Wind with Multiple Current Sheets. Model of the Solar Wind and its Comparison with ULYSSES. Physical properties of a coronal hole from a coronal diagnostic spectrometer, Mauna Loa Coronagraph, and LASCO observations during the Whole Sun Month. Semi-Empirical 2-D MHD Model of the Solar corona and Solar Wind: Energy Flow in the Corona. Source Region of High and Low Speed Wind during the Spartan. Three-dimensional coronal density structure. Cone Model for Halo CME's: Application to Space Weather Forecasting.

Ofman, Leon↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Overview and Comparison to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

Earth-GRAM (Earth-Global Reference Atmospheric Model) Overview: Provides monthly statistics at any point in the atmosphere; Monthly, geographic, altitude variation; Current Version - Earth-GRAM 2016, C++; Output Includes - pressure, density, temperature, horizontal and vertical winds, speed of sound, atmospheric constituents; Used by engineering community to create atmospheric dispersions at a rapid runtime; Not a forecast model. MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) Background: Developed by NASA Goddard Modelling and Assimilation Office; Horizontal Resolution: 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees longitude-by-latitude grid (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis I vs. 2.5 degrees by 2.5 degrees currently used in Earth-GRAM); Vertical resolution: 72 model layers or interpolated to 42 pressure levels to 0.1 hectopascals (hPa) (NCEP reanalysis I, surface to 10hPa at 17 pressure levels).

White, Patrick W.↗

Using OSSEs to Evaluate the Impacts of Geostationary Infrared Sounders

An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was performed to assess the impact of assimilating hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from geostationary orbit on numerical weather prediction, with a focus on the proposed sounder on board the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program’s central satellite. Infrared sounders on a geostationary platform would fill several gaps left by IR sounders on polar-orbiting satellites, and the increased temporal resolution would allow the observation of weather phenomena evolution. The framework for this OSSE was the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) OSSE system, which includes a full suite of meteorological observations. The experiment additionally assimilated four identical IR sounders from geostationary orbit to create a “ring” of vertical profiling observations. Based on the experimentation, assimilation of the IR sounders provided a beneficial impact on the analyzed mass and wind fields, particularly in the tropics, and produced an error reduction in the initial 24–48 h of the subsequent forecasts. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) as this is a region that is well-observed and as such difficult to improve. The forecast sensitivity to observation impact (FSOI) metric, computed across all four synoptic times over the CONUS, reveals that the GXS had the largest impact on the 24-h forecast error of the assimilated hyperspectral infrared satellite radiances as measured using a moist energy error norm. Based on this analysis, the proposed GXS has the potential to improve numerical weather prediction globally and over the CONUS.

OSSE↗

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

A general circulation model (GCM) relies on various physical parameterizations and provides a solution to the atmospheric equations of motion. A data assimilation system (DAS) combines information from observations with a GCM forecast and produces analyzed meteorological fields that represent the observed atmospheric state. An off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM) can use winds and temperatures from a either a GCM or a DAS. The latter application is in common usage for interpretation of observations from various platforms under the assumption that the DAS transport represents the actual atmospheric transport. Here we compare the transport produced by a DAS with that produced by the particular GCM that is combined with observations to produce the analyzed fields. We focus on transport in the tropics and middle latitudes by comparing the age-of-air inferred from observations of SF6 and CO2 with the age-of-air calculated using GCM fields and DAS fields. We also compare observations of ozone, total reactive nitrogen, and methane with results from the two simulations. These comparisons show that DAS fields produce rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport produced by the DAS fields may be due to implicit forcing that is required by the assimilation process when there is bias between the GCM forecast and observations that are combined to produce the analyzed fields. For example, the GCM does not produce a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is present in the analyzed fields because it is present in the observations, and systematic implicit forcing is required by the DAS. Any systematic bias between observations and the GCM forecast used to produce the DAS analysis is likely to corrupt the transport produced by the analyzed fields. Evaluation of transport in the lower tropical stratosphere in a global chemistry and transport model.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

STELLAR MASS–GAS-PHASE METALLICITY RELATION AT 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 0.7: A POWER LAW WITH INCREASING SCATTER TOWARD THE LOW-MASS REGIME

We present the stellar mass (M{sub ∗})–gas-phase metallicity relation (MZR) and its scatter at intermediate redshifts (0.5⩽z⩽0.7) for 1381 field galaxies collected from deep spectroscopic surveys. The star formation rate (SFR) and color at a given M{sub ∗} of this magnitude-limited (R≲24 AB) sample are representative of normal star-forming galaxies. For masses below 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}, our sample of 237 galaxies is ∼10 times larger than those in previous studies beyond the local universe. This huge gain in sample size enables superior constraints on the MZR and its scatter in the low-mass regime. We find a power-law MZR at 10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙} < M{sub ∗} < 10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}: 12+log(O/H)=(5.83±0.19) +(0.30±0.02)log(M{sub ∗}/M{sub ⊙}). At 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙} < M{sub ∗} < 10{sup 10.5} M{sub ⊙}, our MZR shows agreement with others measured at similar redshifts in the literature. Our power-law slope is, however, shallower than the extrapolation of the MZRs of others to masses below 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}. The SFR dependence of the MZR in our sample is weaker than that found for local galaxies (known as the fundamental metallicity relation). Compared to a variety of theoretical models, the slope of our MZR for low-mass galaxies agrees well with predictions incorporating supernova energy-driven winds. Being robust against currently uncertain metallicity calibrations, the scatter of the MZR serves as a powerful diagnostic of the stochastic history of gas accretion, gas recycling, and star formation of low-mass galaxies. Our major result is that the scatter of our MZR increases as M{sub ∗} decreases. Our result implies that either the scatter of the baryonic accretion rate (σ{sub M-dot }) or the scatter of the M{sub ∗}–M{sub halo} relation (σ{sub SHMR}) increases as M{sub ∗} decreases. Moreover, our measure of scatter at z=0.7 appears consistent with that found for local galaxies. This lack of redshift evolution constrains models of galaxy evolution to have both σ{sub M-dot }and σ{sub SHMR} remain unchanged from z=0.7 to z = 0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The analysis of rapidly developing fog at the Kennedy Space Center

This report documents fog precursors and fog climatology at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida from 1986 to 1990. The major emphasis of this report focuses on rapidly developing fog events that would affect the less than 7-statute mile visibility rule for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landing at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). The Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU's) work is to: develop a data base for study of fog associated weather conditions relating to violations of this landing constraint; develop forecast techniques or rules-of-thumb to determine whether or not current conditions are likely to result in an acceptable condition at landing; validate the forecast techniques; and transition techniques to operational use. As part of the analysis the fog events were categorized as either advection, pre-frontal or radiation. As a result of these analyses, the AMU developed a fog climatological data base, identified fog precursors and developed forecaster tools and decision trees. The fog climatological analysis indicates that during the fog season (October to April) there is a higher risk for a visibility violation at KSC during the early morning hours (0700 to 1200 UTC), while 95 percent of all fog events have dissipated by 1600 UTC. A high number of fog events are characterized by a westerly component to the surface wind at KSC (92 percent) and 83 percent of the fog events had fog develop west of KSC first (up to 2 hours). The AMU developed fog decision trees and forecaster tools that would help the forecaster identify fog precursors up to 12 hours in advance. Using the decision trees as process tools ensures the important meteorological data are not overlooked in the forecast process. With these tools and a better understanding of fog formation in the local KSC area, the Shuttle weather support forecaster should be able to give the Launch and Flight Directors a better KSC fog forecast with more confidence.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

The Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The impact of satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on numerical weather forecasts is examined using the GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation system. Cycling data assimilation experiments, including twice-daily 5-day forecasts, are conducted for two 6-week periods during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and 2010-2011Northern Hemisphere winter season. Results from a control experiment that includes all AMVs and other data types assimilated operationally in GEOS-5 are compared with those from an experiment in which the GEOS-5 AMVs (only) are replaced by ones produced by the U. S. Navy?s NAVDAS-AR atmospheric data assimilation system. The Navy AMVs are assimilated in their entirety as well as in various subset combinations. The primary objective of these experiments is to determine whether aspects of the NAVDAS-AR data selection and quality control procedure, especially the use of carefully averaged ("super-ob?) wind vectors and large volume of AMVs, explain the typically larger beneficial impact of these data in the Navy system as compared with most other forecast systems. Adjoint-based observation impact calculations are assessed and compared with traditional metrics such as forecast geopotential height anomaly correlations and observation-minus-forecast departures. Results so far indicate that that the greater number of NRL AMVs is primarily responsible for their larger impact, although superobing also appears to be beneficial. Map views show that the impact obtained from assimilation of the NRL AMVs is more uniformly beneficial, perhaps due to the averaging of individual observations in creating the super-obs. While the NRL AMVs have a much larger impact in GEOS-5 than do the control AMVs, their impact is still smaller than in the Navy forecast system, suggesting that the mix of observations may play an important role in modulating the impact of any one data type. At the same time, reducing the number of satellite radiances assimilated in GEOS-5 does not significantly alter the impact of the AMVs

Gelaro, R. D.↗

The Dense Molecular Gas and Nuclear Activity in the ULIRG IRAS 13120–5453

We present new Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array Band 7 (∼340 GHz) observations of the dense gas tracers HCN, HCO{sup +}, and CS in the local, single-nucleus, ultraluminous infrared galaxy IRAS 13120–5453. We find centrally enhanced HCN (4–3) emission, relative to HCO{sup +} (4–3), but do not find evidence for radiative pumping of HCN. Considering the size of the starburst (0.5 kpc) and the estimated supernovae rate of ∼1.2 yr{sup −1}, the high HCN/HCO{sup +} ratio can be explained by an enhanced HCN abundance as a result of mechanical heating by the supernovae, though the active galactic nucleus and winds may also contribute additional mechanical heating. The starburst size implies a high Σ{sub IR} of 4.7 × 10{sup 12} L {sub ⊙} kpc{sup −2}, slightly below predictions of radiation-pressure limited starbursts. The HCN line profile has low-level wings, which we tentatively interpret as evidence for outflowing dense molecular gas. However, the dense molecular outflow seen in the HCN line wings is unlikely to escape the Galaxy and is destined to return to the nucleus and fuel future star formation. We also present modeling of Herschel observations of the H{sub 2}O lines and find a nuclear dust temperature of ∼40 K. IRAS 13120–5453 has a lower dust temperature and Σ{sub IR} than is inferred for the systems termed “compact obscured nuclei (CONs)” (such as Arp 220 and Mrk 231). If IRAS 13120–5453 has undergone a CON phase, we are likely witnessing it at a time when the feedback has already inflated the nuclear ISM and diluted star formation in the starburst/active galactic nucleus core.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ultraviolet ISM diagnostics for star-forming galaxies. I. Tracers of metallicity and extinction

We have observed a sample of 14 nearby (z∼0.03) star-forming blue compact galaxies (BCGs) in the rest-frame far-UV (∼1150–2200 Å) using the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. We have also generated a grid of stellar population synthesis models using the Starburst99 evolutionary synthesis code, allowing us to compare observations and theoretical predictions for the Si iv-1400 and C iv-1550 UV indices; both are comprised of a blend of stellar wind and interstellar lines and have been proposed as metallicity diagnostics in the UV. Our models and observations both demonstrate that there is a positive linear correlation with metallicity for both indices, and we find generally good agreement between our observations and the predictions of the Starburst99 models (with the models slightly under-estimating the value of the indices due to contributions from interstellar lines not simulated by a stellar population synthesis code). By combining the rest-frame UV observations with pre-existing rest-frame optical spectrophotometry of our BCG sample, we also directly compare the predictions of metallicity and extinction diagnostics across both wavelength regimes. This comparison reveals a correlation between the UV absorption and optical strong-line diagnostics, offering the first means of directly comparing interstellar medium (ISM) properties determined across different rest-frame regimes. Finally, using our Starburst99 model grid, we determine theoretical values for the short-wavelength UV continuum slope, β{sub 18}, which can be used for determining extinction in rest-frame UV spectra of star-forming galaxies. We consider the implications of these results and discuss future work aimed at parameterizing these and other environmental diagnostics in the UV (a suite of diagnostics that could offer particular utility in the study of star-forming galaxies at high redshift) as well as the development of robust comparisons between ISM diagnostics across a broad wavelength baseline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Non-axisymmetric flows on hot Jupiters with oblique magnetic fields

Giant planets that reside in close proximity to their host stars are subject to extreme irradiation, which gives rise to thermal ionization of trace alkali metals in their atmospheres. On objects where the atmospheric electrical conductivity is substantial, the global circulation couples to the background magnetic field, inducing supplementary fields and altering the nature of the flow. To date, a number of authors have considered the influence of a spin-pole aligned dipole magnetic field on the dynamical state of a weakly ionized atmosphere and found that magnetic breaking may lead to significantly slower winds than predicted within a purely hydrodynamical framework. Here, we consider the effect of a tilted dipole magnetic field on the circulation and demonstrate that in addition to regulating wind velocities, an oblique field generates stationary non-axisymmetric structures that adhere to the geometry of the magnetic pole. Using a kinematic perturbative approach, we derive a closed-form solution for the perturbed circulation and show that the fractional distortion of zonal jets scales as the product of the field obliquity and the Elsässer number. The results obtained herein suggest that on planets with oblique magnetic fields, advective shifts of dayside hotspots may have substantial latitudinal components. This prediction may be tested observationally using the eclipse mapping technique.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-Relativistic Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Energetic electrons inside Earth's Van Allen belts pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics that often play vital roles in modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest, and thus forecasting these ≥2 MeV electrons has a significant meaning to all space sectors. Here, we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)-2E, forecasts ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer belt, with no need for in situ measurements of the trapped MeV electron population except at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earthorbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind speeds and densities from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model outperforms individual models at most L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model can provide 25-h (~1-day) and 50-h (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency and correlation values. Our results also suggest that this new model is dominated by nonlinear components at L-shells <~4 for ultra-relativistic electrons, different from the dominance of linear components for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

VisMetHack2022: Visualizing winds and surface variables from the ECMWF IFS 1-km nature run

This data collection was contributed to the Visualisation Hackathon 2022 (#VisMetHack2022), in conjunction with the Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2022) workshop. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are pleased to announce access to the data collection from global 1-km nature run (NR) simulations using the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) with explicit convection. We invite you to join us in exploring this precursor to a digital twin of the earth! The NR simulations reveal unprecedented detail of the earth’s atmosphere, and the then outgoing Editor-in-Chief of AGU JAMES commended the project as one of “stunning ambitions,” enabled by computational capacity at scale. The project also won the 2020 HPCwire Readers Choice Award for Best Use of HPC in Physical Sciences. A set of two NR seasonal simulations have been completed, one corresponding to the northern hemispheric winter months (NDJF) and the other for the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (ASO). The project used the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The simulations were facilitated with an INCITE award from the US Department of Energy Office of Science. For the first seasonal run of four months (NDJF), the hydrostatic IFS model was initialized at 00Z on 1 November 2018. The NR for the TC season (AS) was initialized at 00Z on 1 August 2019. The NR simulations were constrained only by sea surface temperatures (SST) at the lower boundary. The IFS output was saved every 3 hours. After feedback and interest from the scientific community, the simulations were rerun for four specific extreme events, with output every 15 minutes. The special cases include a tropical cycle and three severe storm events over the continental USA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗