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A Summary of the NEXT-C Flight Thruster Proto-flight Testing

Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR), under contract to NASA Glenn Research Center, built, tested and delivered the first flight version of the NEXT-C (NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster – Commercial) engine system. This system is comprised of a 7 kW thruster and power processing unit which are the commercial variants of the NEXT prototype thruster and power processing unit. In addition to developing the NEXT-C engine system for potential future NASA science missions, AR is dedicated to ensuring that this propulsion system is viable for commercial users and a wider variety of commercial applications. This paper will focus on the performance of the first flight model thruster, SN001, and presents an overview of the proto-flight testing environments and data obtained. For this first flight thruster, the proto-flight test sequence involved characterizing the performance of the thruster, in addition to vibration and thermal vacuum testing of the thruster. Between each of these environmental tests, the performance of the thruster was verified, ensuring that the environmental exposures, i.e. vibration and TVAC, did not affect the thruster performance. Specifically, the proto-flight data obtained included discharge chamber, optics and neutralizer performance. Faraday probe and ExB data obtained in the regions downstream of the thruster are presented and used to calculate thrust, and therefore specific impulse and total efficiency. Lastly, data are presented showing how the centroid of the ion beam, assumed to be indicative of the thrust vector location, varies throughout the entire proto-flight test campaign. The proto-flight testing of the NEXT-C PPU is documented in a previously published paper by Bontempo4. Following the proto-flight testing of the thruster, the thruster and its PPU successfully completed a System Integrated Test (SIT) tailored to the DART Mission. After the completion of the proto-flight testing, the SN001 thruster and SN002 PPU were delivered to APL for use on the DART mission.

Ion thruster↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nondestructive Structural Damage Detection in Flexible Space Structures Using Vibration Characterization

Spacecraft are susceptible to structural damage over their operating life from impact, environmental loads, and fatigue. Structural damage that is not detected and not corrected may potentially cause more damage and eventually catastrophic structural failure. NASA's current fleet of reusable spacecraft, namely the Space Shuttle, has been flown on several missions. In addition, configurations of future NASA space structures, e.g. Space Station Freedom, are larger and more complex than current structures, making them more susceptible to damage as well as being more difficult to inspect. Consequently, a reliable structural damage detection capability is essential to maintain the flight safety of these structures. Visual inspections alone can not locate impending material failure (fatigue cracks, yielding); it can only observe post-failure situations. An alternative approach is to develop an inspection and monitoring system based on vibration characterization that assesses the integrity of structural and mechanical components. A methodology for detecting structural damage is presented. This methodology is based on utilizing modal test data in conjunction with a correlated analytical model of the structure to: (1) identify the structural dynamic characteristics (resonant frequencies and mode shapes) from measurements of ambient motions and/or force excitation; (2) calculate modal residual force vectors to identify the location of structural damage; and (3) conduct a weighted sensitivity analysis in order to assess the extent of mass and stiffness variations, where structural damage is characterized by stiffness reductions. The approach is unique from other existing approaches in that varying system mass and stiffness, mass center locations, the perturbation of both the natural frequencies and mode shapes, and statistical confidence factors for structural parameters and experimental instrumentation are all accounted for directly.

Ricles, James M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Numerical Testbed for Remote Sensing of Aerosols, and its Demonstration for Evaluating Retrieval Synergy from a Geostationary Satellite Constellation of GEO-CAPE and GOES-R

We present a numerical testbed for remote sensing of aerosols, together with a demonstration for evaluating retrieval synergy from a geostationary satellite constellation. The testbed combines inverse (optimal-estimation) software with a forward model containing linearized code for computing particle scattering (for both spherical and non-spherical particles), a kernel-based (land and ocean) surface bi-directional reflectance facility, and a linearized radiative transfer model for polarized radiance. Calculation of gas absorption spectra uses the HITRAN (HIgh-resolution TRANsmission molecular absorption) database of spectroscopic line parameters and other trace species cross-sections. The outputs of the testbed include not only the Stokes 4-vector elements and their sensitivities (Jacobians) with respect to the aerosol single scattering and physical parameters (such as size and shape parameters, refractive index, and plume height), but also DFS (Degree of Freedom for Signal) values for retrieval of these parameters. This testbed can be used as a tool to provide an objective assessment of aerosol information content that can be retrieved for any constellation of (planned or real) satellite sensors and for any combination of algorithm design factors (in terms of wavelengths, viewing angles, radiance and/or polarization to be measured or used). We summarize the components of the testbed, including the derivation and validation of analytical formulae for Jacobian calculations. Benchmark calculations from the forward model are documented. In the context of NASA's Decadal Survey Mission GEOCAPE (GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events), we demonstrate the use of the testbed to conduct a feasibility study of using polarization measurements in and around the O2 A band for the retrieval of aerosol height information from space, as well as an to assess potential improvement in the retrieval of aerosol fine and coarse mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) through the synergic use of two future geostationary satellites, GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-series) and TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution). Strong synergy between GEOS-R and TEMPO are found especially in their characterization of surface bi-directional reflectance, and thereby, can potentially improve the AOD retrieval to the accuracy required by GEO-CAPE.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy signal classification with machine learning in project 8

The Cyclotron Radiation Emission Spectroscopy (CRES) technique pioneered by Project 8 measures cyclotron radiation from individual electrons in a background magnetic field to construct a highly precise energy spectrum for beta decay studies and other applications. The detector, magnetic trap geometry, and electron dynamics give rise to a multitude of complex electron signal structures which carry information about distinguishing physical traits. Here, we develop machine learning models to classify CRES signals with high accuracy based on these traits, improve the resultant frequency spectrum, and offer the potential for a sophisticated analysis which will help Project 8 achieve tritium endpoint measurement in the future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bare mass effects on the reheating process after inflation

We consider the effects of a bare mass term for the inflaton, when the inflationary potential takes the form V(Φ)=λΦ k about its minimum with k ≥ 4. We concentrate on k =4, but discuss general cases as well. Further, we assume $λΦ$$^{2}_{end}$ >> $m$$^{2}_{Φ}$, where Φ end is the inflaton field value when the inflationary expansion ends. We show that the presence of a mass term (which may be present due to radiative corrections or supersymmetry breaking) can significantly alter the reheating process, as the equation of state of the inflaton condensate changes from w Φ = $\frac{1}{3}$ to w Φ = 0 when λ⁢Φ 2 drops below $m$$^{2}_{Φ}$. We show that, for a mass mΦ ≳ 3⁢λ $\frac{1}{4}$ T RH , the mass term will dominate at reheating. The value of λ is relatively model independent as it is normalized by the cosmic microwave background perturbation spectrum. For T models of inflation, this leads to m Φ ≳ T RH /250. We compute the effects on the reheating temperature for cases where reheating is due to inflaton decay (to fermions, scalars, or vectors) or to inflaton scattering (to scalars or vectors). For scattering to scalars and in the absence of a decay, there is always a residual inflaton background that acts as cold dark matter. In this case, we derive a strong upper limit to the inflaton bare mass which for T models is m Φ < 350 MeV⁢(T RH /10 10 GeV) 3/5 . We also consider the effect of the bare mass term on the fragmentation of the inflaton condensate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Jacobian-scaled K-means clustering for physics-informed segmentation of reacting flows

This work introduces Jacobian-scaled K-means (JSK-means) clustering, which is a physicsinformed clustering strategy centered on the K-means framework. The method allows for the injection of underlying physical knowledge into the clustering procedure through a distance function modification: instead of leveraging conventional Euclidean distance vectors, the JSKmeans procedure operates on distance vectors scaled by matrices obtained from dynamical system Jacobians evaluated at the cluster centroids. The goal of this work is to show how the JSKmeans algorithm - without modifying the input dataset - produces clusters that capture regions of dynamical similarity, in that the clusters are redistributed towards high-sensitivity regions in phase space and are described by similarity in the source terms of samples instead of the samples themselves. The algorithm is demonstrated on a complex reacting flow simulation dataset (a channel detonation configuration), where the dynamics in the thermochemical composition space are known through the highly nonlinear and stiff Arrhenius-based chemical source terms. Interpretations of cluster partitions in both physical space and composition space reveal how JSK-means shifts clusters produced by standard K-means towards regions of high chemical sensitivity (e.g., towards regions of peak heat release rate near the detonation reaction zone). Furthermore, the findings presented here illustrate the benefits of utilizing Jacobian-scaled distances in clustering techniques, and the JSK-means method in particular displays promising potential for improving former partition-based modeling strategies in reacting flow (and other multi-physics) applications.

Clustering↗

NASA NTRS2001

Internal Flow Simulation of Enhanced Performance Solid Rocket Booster for the Space Transportation System

An enhanced performance solid rocket booster concept for the space shuttle system has been proposed. The concept booster will have strong commonality with the existing, proven, reliable four-segment Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motors (RSRM) with individual component design (nozzle, insulator, etc.) optimized for a five-segment configuration. Increased performance is desirable to further enhance safety/reliability and/or increase payload capability. Performance increase will be achieved by adding a fifth propellant segment to the current four-segment booster and opening the throat to accommodate the increased mass flow while maintaining current pressure levels. One development concept under consideration is the static test of a "standard" RSRM with a fifth propellant segment inserted and appropriate minimum motor modifications. Feasibility studies are being conducted to assess the potential for any significant departure in component performance/loading from the well-characterized RSRM. An area of concern is the aft motor (submerged nozzle inlet, aft dome, etc.) where the altered internal flow resulting from the performance enhancing features (25% increase in mass flow rate, higher Mach numbers, modified subsonic nozzle contour) may result in increased component erosion and char. To assess this issue and to define the minimum design changes required to successfully static test a fifth segment RSRM engineering test motor, internal flow studies have been initiated. Internal aero-thermal environments were quantified in terms of conventional convective heating and discrete phase alumina particle impact/concentration and accretion calculations via Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation. Two sets of comparative CFD simulations of the RSRM and the five-segment (IBM) concept motor were conducted with CFD commercial code FLUENT. The first simulation involved a two-dimensional axi-symmetric model of the full motor, initial grain RSRM. The second set of analyses included three-dimensional models of the RSRM and FSM aft motors with four-degree vectored nozzles.

Ahmad, Rashid A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Non-Micropipe Dislocations in 4H-SiC Devices: Electrical Properties and Device Technology Implications

It is well-known that SiC wafer quality deficiencies are delaying the realization of outstandingly superior 4H-SiC power electronics. While efforts to date have centered on eradicating micropipes (i.e., hollow core super-screw dislocations with Burgers vectors greater than or equal to 2c), 4H-SiC wafers and epilayers also contain elementary screw dislocations (i.e., Burgers vector = 1c with no hollow core) in densities on the order of thousands per sq cm, nearly 100-fold micropipe densities. While not nearly as detrimental to SiC device performance as micropipes, it has recently been demonstrated that elementary screw dislocations somewhat degrade the reverse leakage and breakdown properties of 4H-SiC p(+)n diodes. Diodes containing elementary screw dislocations exhibited a 5% to 35% reduction in breakdown voltage, higher pre-breakdown reverse leakage current, softer reverse breakdown I-V knee, and microplasmic breakdown current filaments that were non-catastrophic as measured under high series resistance biasing. This paper details continuing experimental and theoretical investigations into the electrical properties of 4H-SiC elementary screw dislocations. The nonuniform breakdown behavior of 4H-SiC p'n junctions containing elementary screw dislocations exhibits interesting physical parallels with nonuniform breakdown phenomena previously observed in other semiconductor materials. Based upon experimentally observed dislocation-assisted breakdown, a re-assessment of well-known physical models relating power device reliability to junction breakdown has been undertaken for 4H-SiC. The potential impact of these elementary screw dislocation defects on the performance and reliability of various 4H-SiC device technologies being developed for high-power applications will be discussed.

Neudeck, Philip G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

General Pressurization Model in Simscape

System integration is an essential part of the engineering design process. The Ares I Upper Stage (US) is a complex system which is made up of thousands of components assembled into subsystems including a J2-X engine, liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquid oxygen (LO2) tanks, avionics, thrust vector control, motors, etc. System integration is the task of connecting together all of the subsystems into one large system. To ensure that all the components will "fit together" as well as safety and, quality, integration analysis is required. Integration analysis verifies that, as an integrated system, the system will behave as designed. Models that represent the actual subsystems are built for more comprehensive analysis. Matlab has been an instrument widely use by engineers to construct mathematical models of systems. Simulink, one of the tools offered by Matlab, provides multi-domain graphical environment to simulate and design time-varying systems. Simulink is a powerful tool to analyze the dynamic behavior of systems over time. Furthermore, Simscape, a tool provided by Simulink, allows users to model physical (such as mechanical, thermal and hydraulic) systems using physical networks. Using Simscape, a model representing an inflow of gas to a pressurized tank was created where the temperature and pressure of the tank are measured over time to show the behavior of the gas. By further incorporation of Simscape into model building, the full potential of this software can be discovered and it hopefully can become a more utilized tool.

Servin, Mario↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗

DOE OSTI2022

Landscape Topography and Regional Drought Alters Dust Microbiomes in the Sierra Nevada of California

Dust provides an ecologically significant input of nutrients, especially in slowly eroding ecosystems where chemical weathering intensity limits nutrient inputs from underlying bedrock. In addition to nutrient inputs, incoming dust is a vector for dispersing dust-associated microorganisms. While little is known about dust-microbial dispersal, dust deposits may have transformative effects on ecosystems far from where the dust was emitted. Using molecular analyses, we examined spatiotemporal variation in incoming dust microbiomes along an elevational gradient within the Sierra Nevada of California. We sampled throughout two dry seasons and found that dust microbiomes differed by elevation across two summer dry seasons (2014 and 2015), which corresponded to competing droughts in dust source areas. Dust microbial taxa richness decreased with elevation and was inversely proportional to dust heterogeneity. Likewise, dust phosphorus content increased with elevation. At lower elevations, early season dust microbiomes were more diverse than those found later in the year. The relative abundances of microbial groups shifted during the summer dry season. Furthermore, mutualistic fungal diversity increased with elevation, which may have corresponded with the biogeography of their plant hosts. Although dust fungal pathogen diversity was equivalent across elevations, elevation and sampling month interactions for the relative abundance, diversity, and richness of fungal pathogens suggest that these pathogens differed temporally across elevations, with potential implications for humans and wildlife. This study shows that landscape topography and droughts in source locations may alter the composition and diversity of ecologically relevant dust-associated microorganisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Application of the NASCAP Spacecraft Simulation Tool to Investigate Electrodynamic Tether Current Collection in LEO

Recent interest in using electrodynamic tethers (EDTs) for orbital maneuvering in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has prompted the development of the Marshall ElectroDynamic Tether Orbit Propagator (MEDTOP) model. The model is comprised of several modules which address various aspects of EDT propulsion, including calculation of state vectors using a standard orbit propagator (e.g., J2), an atmospheric drag model, realistic ionospheric and magnetic field models, space weather effects, and tether librations. The natural electromotive force (EMF) attained during a radially-aligned conductive tether results in electrons flowing down the tether and accumulating on the lower-altitude spacecraft. The energy that drives this EMF is sourced from the orbital energy of the system; thus, EDTs are often proposed as de-orbiting systems. However, when the current is reversed using satellite charged particle sources, then propulsion is possible. One of the most difficult challenges of the modeling effort is to ascertain the equivalent circuit between the spacecraft and the ionospheric plasma. The present study investigates the use of the NASA Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP) to calculate currents to and from the tethered satellites and the ionospheric plasma. NASCAP is a sophisticated set of computational tools to model the surface charging of three-dimensional (3D) spacecraft surfaces in a time-varying space environment. The model's surface is tessellated into a collection of facets, and NASCAP calculates currents and potentials for each one. Additionally, NASCAP provides for the construction of one or more nested grids to calculate space potential and time-varying electric fields. This provides for the capability to track individual particles orbits, to model charged particle wakes, and to incorporate external charged particle sources. With this study, we have developed a model of calculating currents incident onto an electrodynamic tethered satellite system, and first results are shown here.

Adams, Mitzi↗

NASA NTRS2008

Potential of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Ocean Surface Wind Observations for Determining Tropical Storm Vortex Intensity and Structure

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development, which offers the potential of new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation from either UAS or satellite platforms. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven aircraft remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by the NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard version of the instrument is complete and has been successfully tested in an anechoic chamber, and development of the aircraft instrument is well underway. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean vector winds and rain during hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered. Preliminary studies show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor.

Atlas, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Pdeudomonas aeruginosa Growth and Virulence in Modelled Microgravity

Stress, radiation and microgravity cause astronauts to experience secondary immunosuppression. Spaceflight conditions enhance bacterial growth and alter antimicrobial susceptibility. Clinostats are used to model microgravity effects at lxg. In controls rotated on the vertical axis, the g-vector acts on cells as in static cultures. Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium virulence genes are up-regulated in modelled microgravity (MMG); a MMG regulon has been postulated. We hypothesize that the virulence of P. aeruginosa (PA) may be affected similarly by microgravity, which could be observed in MMG. This study focused on regulation of the ETA protein by PA during growth in MMG. PA103 was grown in an ETA production medium at 37 C. One series of media was inoculated with frozen cultures and grown using horizontal (MMG) or static incubation. Another series inoculated with refrigerated cultures included vertical rotating controls. Analyses included optical density (OD), agar plate counts (PC) on R2A, ETA ELISA, and protein expression by 2-D gel analyses. Growth and ETA results differed depending on inoculum, with minor effects of MMG. Proteomic analysis of 2-D gels indicate differences in protein expression with MMG. Growth and ETA results show that consistent methodology is critical when studying environmental effects. This study provides information on the relationships between environmental changes and virulence regulation, especially for flight experiments, when ground experiments are used to predict potential spaceflight effects.

Guadarrama, Seratna↗

NASA NTRS2021

Impact of Recent Climate Extremes on Mosquito-borne Disease Transmission in Kenya

Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of the background in coherent J/ψ production at the EIC

Understanding various fundamental properties of nucleons and nuclei is among the most important scientific goals at the upcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). With the unprecedented opportunity provided by the next-generation machine, the EIC might provide definitive answers to many standing puzzles and open questions in modern nuclear physics. We investigate one of the golden measurements proposed at the EIC, which is to obtain the spatial gluon density distribution within a lead (Pb) nucleus. The proposed experimental process is the exclusive J/ψ vector-meson production off the Pb nucleus: e + Pb → e' + J/ψ + Pb'. The Fourier transformation of the momentum transfer |t| distribution of the coherent diffraction is the transverse gluon spatial distribution. In order to measure it, the experiment has to overcome an overwhelmingly large background arising from the incoherent diffractive production, where the nucleus Pb' mostly breaks up into fragments of particles in the far-forward direction close to the hadron-going beam rapidity. We systematically study the rejection of incoherent J/ψ production by vetoing products from these nuclear breakups—protons, neutrons, and photons—which is based on the BeAGLE event generator and the most up-to-date EIC Far-forward Interaction Region design. The achieved vetoing efficiency, the ratio between the numbers of vetoed events and total incoherent events, ranges from about 80% to 99% depending on |t|. Assuming a 5% smearing applied to the reconstructed |t| resolution in the Sar t re model, this vetoing efficiency can suppress the incoherent background to at least the first minimum of the coherent |t| distribution. Experimental and accelerator machine challenges as well as potential improvements are discussed herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exciting DeePMD: Learning excited-state energies, forces, and non-adiabatic couplings

We extend the DeePMD neural network architecture to predict electronic structure properties necessary to perform non-adiabatic dynamics simulations. While learning the excited state energies and forces follows a straightforward extension of the DeePMD approach for ground-state energies and forces, how to learn the map between the non-adiabatic coupling vectors (NACV) and the local chemical environment descriptors of DeePMD is less trivial. Most implementations of machine-learning-based non-adiabatic dynamics inherently approximate the NACVs, with an underlying assumption that the energy-difference-scaled NACVs are conservative fields. We overcome this approximation, implementing the method recently introduced by Richardson [J. Chem. Phys. 158, 011102 (2023)], which learns the symmetric dyad of the energy-difference-scaled NACV. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of our neural network architecture are demonstrated through the example of the methaniminium cation CH 2 NH 2 + .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗