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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

Development of a thermal creep model for aluminum alloy 6061 cladding in U-10Mo monolithic fuel plates

Plate-type fuel elements consisting of a high-density, low-enriched uranium (LEU) U–10Mo-based fuel foil encapsulated in an aluminum alloy (AA) cladding are fabricated using the hot isostatic pressing (HIP) technique. During the HIP process, the fuel plate system is heated to 560 °C, then cooled to room temperature. This heat cycle significantly affects the mechanical properties of the aluminum cladding, and experimental investigations have shown that, post-HIP bonding, the mechanical properties of the aluminum cladding transition from those of AA 6061-T6 to something closer to the O temper. More specifically, the ultimate strength of the cladding decreases while its ductility increases, making it challenging to capture the changes in mechanical behavior and material properties. Understanding the residual stresses generated during the HIP process is critical for assessing the fuel plate’s integrity under various temperature, pressure, and irradiation. To simulate the HIP bonding process, the elastic, plastic, and thermal properties of the cladding are assumed to be similar to those of AA 6061-O temper. However, the primary challenge lies in the lack of available data for the creep model of the AA 6061 cladding during this transient process of HIP. The present study focuses on developing a computational model that predicts the creep behavior of the aluminum cladding in the fuel plates during the HIP process, as cladding creep significantly influences the residual stresses generated in U-10Mo fuel plates during HIP fabrication. Furthermore, as HIP bonding occurs at high temperatures that are nearing the melting point of aluminum, the present work considered a temperature-dependent Arrhenius-type creep model. In particular, a hyperbolic sine creep model is employed to estimate the creep properties of the as-fabricated aluminum cladding. In conclusion, the residual stresses predicted in the U-10Mo fuel when using the newly calibrated creep model closely align with the experimental measurements, validating the model’s accuracy.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluating nonlocal heat transport in directly driven chromium spheres using x-ray spectroscopy

We report on experiments investigating heat transport in laser-generated plasmas using directly driven chromium spheres. The spheres are fielded at the OMEGA laser facility and are driven with laser intensities of 5×10 14 Wcm −2 . Plasma conditions in the corona and scattered light are measured experimentally and compared against predictions from two-dimensional (2D) radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using different heat transport models. Spectroscopic analysis of x-ray self-emission is used as an additional diagnostic. X-ray emission is integrated over a large region of the plasma, probing regions that are not observed by localized optical Thomson scattering. In particular, x-ray emission peaks near the plasma critical density, so emission from optically thin lines provides information on plasma conditions where nonlocal transport is most likely to be significant. Three common heat transport models are considered: local transport with flux limiters f = 0.15 and f = 0.03, and the nonlocal Schurtz–Nicolai–Busquet (SNB) model. Consistent with previous work, both the high-flux (f = 0.15) and SNB models show good agreement with experimentally measured plasma conditions in the corona despite overpredicting laser absorption, whereas the low-flux (f = 0.03) model fails to match any experimental data. Conditions inferred from x-ray self-emission line ratios support this conclusion during the period of laser peak power, although synthetic spectra for all models fail to match the experiment during the transient portions of the pulse. For these reasons, the low-flux model is again rejected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Library of Advanced Models of large-scale PV (LAMP) (Final Technical Report)

A suite of dynamic models of photovoltaic (PV) systems is developed in this project to accurately capture PV system dynamics during different contingencies. The following models are included: (i) quasi-dynamic, (ii) high-fidelity electromagnetic transient (EMT), (iii) advanced, and (iv) baseline. The models have the flexibility to consider different control functionalities at different controller levels. The study’s requirements determine the type of model needed. For example, high-fidelity EMT models are recommended for contingency studies. Advanced models are recommended for online or real-time implementations with resource constraints, whereas quasi-dynamic models are useful for studying the impact of weather variations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analytical and experimental investigations of human spine flexure.

The authors report on experiments to measure the resistance of fresh human spines to flexion in the upper lumbar and lower thoracic regions and evaluate results by using a combination of strength of materials theory and effects of shear and comparing with data reported by other authors. The test results indicate that the thoraco-lumbar spine behaves approximately as a linear elastic beam, without relaxation effects. The authors formulate a simple continuum dynamic model of the spine simulating aircraft ejection and solve the resulting boundary value problem to illustrate the importance of the flexural mode. A constant cross-section, the selected model is a sinusoidally curved elastic beam with an end mass subjected to a Heaviside axial acceleration at the other end. The paper presents transient response results for the spinal model axial and bending displacements and axial force.-

Moffatt, C. A.↗

Test of a geometric model for the modification stage of simple impact crater development

This paper presents a geometric model describing the geometry of the transient cavity of an impact crater and the subsequent collapse of its walls to form a crater filled by an interior breccia lens. The model is tested by comparing the volume of slump material calculated from known dimensional parameters with the volume of the breccia lens estimated on the basis of observational data. Results obtained from the model were found to be consistent with observational data, particularly in view of the highly sensitive nature of the model to input parameters.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

An evaluation of the National Meteorological Center weekly hindcast of upper-ocean temperature along the eastern Pacific equator in January 1992

The upper-ocean temperature distribution along the Pacific equator from 139 to 103 deg W was observed in January 1992 with temperature profiles recorded from a ship and inferred from an ocean general circulation model calculation involving data assimilation (i.e., hindcast). An El Nino episode was in progress. The l00-m-thick mixed layer depth, the mixed-layer temperature, and the depth-averaged temperature below the thermocline were similar in both data products. Considerable differences occurred in the representation of the 15-25 C thermocline, such as the depth-averaged temperatures above and below the 20 C isotherm, the east-west slope of the 20 C isotherm, and a 1000-km-wide depression. The longitudinal-averaged root-mean-square difference between the hindcast and observed depths of the center of the thermocline was 17 m. Most of the disparities could be attributed to a high wavenumber transient event that the model-based assimilation system was not intended to resolve.

Halpern, David↗

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

Geomechanical and Hydrogeological Evaluation of a Shallow Hydraulic Fracture at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site, Medina County, Texas

UT-Austin’s Devine Fracture Pilot Site, 50 miles southwest of San Antonio, Texas, has been targeted for a comprehensive, multidisciplinary development of fracture diagnostic techniques that are cross-validated by ground-truth data acquisition near a recently created, 175-ft-deep, horizontal hydraulic fracture (Ahmadian et al. 2018 Demonstration of proof of concept of electromagnetic geophysical methods for high resolution illumination of induced fracture networks. In Proceedings of the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition, The Woodlands, Texas, USA, 23–25 January 2018. SPE-189858-MS.). To evaluate the fracture diagnostic methods at this site, we conducted injection tests with a predefined volumetric flow-rate profile, resembling a diagnostic fracture injection test on September 2020. Subsequently, we developed hydrogeological and geomechanical models based on flow-rate and bottomhole-pressure measurements. History-matching efforts using a simplified layer-cake hydrogeological model resulted in the field-scale formation permeability of 9.87 × 10 –15 m 2 (10 mD) and Darcy-scale fracture permeability. The analysis of the bottomhole pressure and injection-rate history showed that (1) the newly created horizontal fracture was closed adjacent to the injection well pre-injection and (2) the initial pump-pressure increase at a nominal volumetric injection rate led to near-well fracture reopening, fluid conductivity increase, and abrupt injection-rate increase. To overcome hydrogeological-model limitations of predicting fracture reopening throughout injection, we extended the modeling to a finite-element, poroelastic analysis of horizontal-fracture growth using a cohesive-zone model. Using this fracture-reopening model, we improved the history match of the transient-pressure response during the experiment by adjusting the hydromechanical properties. Furthermore, post-injection pressure transient analyses helped reduce uncertainty in the overburden-stress gradient, and the initial hydraulic-fracturing simulation verified the plausibility of achieving the surveyed propped fracture area.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Rapidly Rising Transients in the Supernova - Superluminous Supernova Gap

We present observations of four rapidly rising (t(sub rise) approximately equals 10 days) transients with peak luminosities between those of supernovae (SNe) and superluminous SNe (M(sub peak) approximately equals -20) - one discovered and followed by the PalomarTransient Factory (PTF) and three by the Supernova Legacy Survey. The light curves resemble those of SN 2011kl, recently shown to be associated with an ultra-long-duration gamma-ray burst (GRB), though no GRB was seen to accompany our SNe. The rapid rise to a luminous peak places these events in a unique part of SN phase space, challenging standard SN emission mechanisms. Spectra of the PTF event formally classify it as an SN II due to broad H alpha emission, but an unusual absorption feature, which can be interpreted as either high velocity H alpha (though deeper than in previously known cases) or Si II (as seen in SNe Ia), is also observed. We find that existing models of white dwarf detonations, CSM interaction, shock breakout in a wind (or steeper CSM), and magnetar spin down cannot readily explain the observations. We consider the possibility that a Type 1.5 SN scenario could be the origin of our events. More detailed models for these kinds of transients and more constraining observations of future such events should help to better determine their nature.

SNLS06D1hc↗

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters

Characterization of the three-dimensional structure of solar transients using incomplete plane of sky data is a difficult problem whose solutions have potential for societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. In this paper transients are characterized in three dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection (CME) approximation. A novel method for the automatic determination of cone model parameters from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method uses both standard image processing techniques to extract the CME mass from white-light coronagraph images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A bootstrap technique is used to provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model parameter distributions will provide direct means for ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the heliosphere. An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that there is reasonable agreement, especially between the heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric locations and the opening half-angles of the automatically determined cones may be more realistic than those obtained from the manual analysis

Pulkkinen, A.↗

A procedure for calculating the damping in multi-element space structures

A procedure for analyzing the damping in a multielement space structure connected by joints is described, in which distributed material damping and discrete nonlinear joint properties are incorporated into a linear analysis. The procedure involves four steps: (1) creation of a linear undamped finite element model; (2) experimental measurements of the transient response of a truss member in free fall tests to obtain material damping properties; with these properties incorporated into a linear damped finite element model of the structure; (3) the identification of the nonlinear joint properties using the force-state mapping technique; and (4) linearization of the identified nonlinear components, which are then incorporated into the linear damped model to create the linearized damped finite element model.

Crawley, E. F.↗

Viscoelastic responses of a hard transition zone - Effects on postglacial uplifts and rotational signatures

A five-layer viscoelastic spherical model is used to calculate the transient displacements of postglacial rebound, the induced polar motions, and the temporal variations of the geopotential up to degree 8 of the zonal coefficients. Two models - one with two viscoelastic layers separated at 670 km, and the other with three layers in which a hard garnet layer lies between the upper and lower mantle - are compared. Forward modeling shows that it may be possible to discern the presence of a hard garnet layer with a viscosity of at least ten times greater than the upper mantle, on the basis of uplift data near the center of the former Laurentide ice-sheet and from polar wander and j2 data. Temporal variations of higher gravity harmonics, such as j6 and j8, can potentially place even tighter constraints on the rheological properties of the hard transition zone. A lower mantle viscosity between 2 and 4 x 10 to the 22nd Pa is generally preferred in models with a garnet layer which may be as large as 50 times more viscous than the upper mantle.

Spada, Giorgio↗

Revealing transient powder-gas interaction in laser powder bed fusion process through multi-physics modeling and high-speed synchrotron x-ray imaging

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an emerging metal additive manufacturing process. The gas-driven powder motions in laser powder bed fusion have significant influence on the build quality. However, the transient powder-gas interaction has not been well understood due to the challenges in quantitative experiment measurements. In this work, the powder-gas interaction for a single pulse laser illuminating on the powder bed is studied. We establish a multi-physics model to simulate the complex liquid/gas flow as well as the gas-driven powder motions, which is substantiated by high-speed synchrotron x-ray imaging. We identify and quantify four characteristic modes of powder-gas interaction in LPBF. The motion of a powder is controlled by one or multiple interaction modes collectively. As revealed by simulations and confirmed by experiments, powders can merge into the molten pool from its rim, be ejected at different divergence angles (powder spattering), or dive into the molten pool to cause significant molten pool fluctuation. Overall, our results provide insights toward the driving forces controlling the dynamic powder behavior, which pave the way for reducing structure defects during the build process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Arctic Coastal Erosion: Modeling and Experimentation

Increasing Arctic coastal erosion rates have put critical infrastructure and native communities at risk while also mobilizing ancient organic carbon into modern carbon cycles. Although the Arctic comprises one-third of the global coastline and has some of the fastest eroding coasts, current tools for quantifying permafrost erosion are unable to explain the episodic, storm-driven erosion events. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, a coupling framework unites the mechanical and thermal aspects of erosion. 3D stress/strain fields develop in response to a plasticity model of the permafrost that is controlled by the frozen water content determined by modeling 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase change. This modeling approach enables failure from any allowable deformation (block failure, slumping, etc.). Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Combined, this work offers the most comprehensive and physically grounded treatment of Arctic coastal erosion available in the literature. The ACE model and experimental results can be used to inform scientific understanding of coastal erosion processes, contribute to estimates of geochemical and sediment land-to-ocean fluxes, and facilitate infrastructure susceptibility assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗