SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Systematics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Multifunctional light beam source for surface slope measuring long trace profilers

To fully exploit the advantages of fourth-generation synchrotron light sources, diffraction-limited-storage-rings (DLSR) and fully coherent free electron lasers (FELs), beamline mirrors and diffraction grating must be of exceptional quality. To achieve the required mirror and grating quality, the metrology instrumentation and methods used to characterize these challenging optics and, even more so, optical assemblies must also offer exceptional functionality and performance. One of the most widely used slope measuring instruments for characterizing x-ray optics is the long trace profiler (LTP). The easily reconfigurable mechanical design of the LTP allows optimization of the profiler arrangement to the specifics of a particular metrology task. Here, we discuss the optical schematic, design, and performance of an original multifunctional light beam source that provides functional flexibility of the LTP optical sensor. With this source, the LTP can be easily reconfigured for measurements of x-ray mirrors or diffraction gratings that have widely different source coherence requirements. Usage of a source with a low degree of coherence for mirror metrology helps to suppress the LTP systematic errors due to spurious interference effects in the LTP optical elements. A high-coherence narrow-band source is used for groove-density-distribution characterization of x-ray diffraction gratings. The systematic error and spatial resolution of the LTP with the different sources is also measured and analyzed.

Yashchuk, Valeriy V.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conceptual design of the modular detector and readout system for the CMB-S4 survey experiment

We present the conceptual design of the modular detector and readout system for the Cosmic Microwave Background – Stage four (CMB-S4) ground-based survey experiment. CMB-S4 will map the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the millimeter-wave sky to unprecedented sensitivity, using 500,000 superconducting detectors observing from Chile and Antarctica to map over 60% of the sky. The fundamental building block of the detector and readout system is a detector module package operated at 100 mK, which is connected to a readout and amplification chain that carries signals out to room temperature. It uses arrays of feedhorn-coupled orthomode transducers (OMT) that collect optical power from the sky onto dc-voltage-biased transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers. The resulting current signal in the TESs is then amplified by a two-stage cryogenic Superconducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID) system with a time-division multiplexer to reduce wire count, and matching room-temperature electronics to condition and transmit signals to the data acquisition system. Sensitivity and systematics requirements are being developed for the detector and readout system over wide range of observing bands (20 to 300 GHz) and optical powers to accomplish CMB-S4’s science goals. While the design incorporates the successes of previous generations of CMB instruments, CMB-S4 requires an order of magnitude more detectors than any prior experiment. This requires fabrication of complex superconducting circuits on over 10 m2 of silicon, as well as significant amounts of precision wiring, assembly and cryogenic testing

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Using Partial Genome Alignments

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an important global health threat that impacts millions of people worldwide each year. Developing methods that can detect and predict AMR phenotypes can help to mitigate the spread of AMR by informing clinical decision making and appropriate mitigation strategies. Many bioinformatic methods have been developed for predicting AMR phenotypes from whole-genome sequences and AMR genes, but recent studies have indicated that predictions can be made from incomplete genome sequence data. In order to more systematically understand this, we built random forest-based machine learning classifiers for predicting susceptible and resistant phenotypes for Klebsiella pneumoniae (1,640 strains), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2,497 strains), and Salmonella enterica (1,981 strains). We started by building models from alignments that were based on a reference chromosome for each species. We then subsampled each chromosomal alignment and built models for the resulting subalignments, finding that very small regions, representing approximately 0.1 to 0.2% of the chromosome, are predictive. In K. pneumoniae, M. tuberculosis, and S. enterica, the subalignments are able to predict multiple AMR phenotypes with at least 70% accuracy, even though most do not encode an AMR-related function. We used these models to identify regions of the chromosome with high and low predictive signals. Finally, subalignments that retain high accuracy across larger phylogenetic distances were examined in greater detail, revealing genes and intergenic regions with potential links to AMR, virulence, transport, and survival under stress conditions. IMPORTANCE Antimicrobial resistance causes thousands of deaths annually worldwide. Understanding the regions of the genome that are involved in antimicrobial resistance is important for developing mitigation strategies and preventing transmission. Machine learning models are capable of predicting antimicrobial resistance phenotypes from bacterial genome sequence data by identifying resistance genes, mutations, and other correlated features. They are also capable of implicating regions of the genome that have not been previously characterized as being involved in resistance. In this study, we generated global chromosomal alignments for Klebsiella pneumoniae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and Salmonella enterica and systematically searched them for small conserved regions of the genome that enable the prediction of antimicrobial resistance phenotypes. In addition to known antimicrobial resistance genes, this analysis identified genes involved in virulence and transport functions, as well as many genes with no previous implication in antimicrobial resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neutrino emission from binary neutron star mergers: characterising light curves and mean energies

Abstract Neutrinos are copiously emitted by neutron star mergers, due to the high temperatures reached by dense matter during the merger and its aftermath. Neutrinos influence the merger dynamics and shape the properties of the ejecta, including the resulting r -process nucleosynthesis and kilonova emission. In this work, we analyse neutrino emission from a large sample of binary neutron star merger simulations in Numerical Relativity, covering a broad range of initial masses, nuclear equation of state and viscosity treatments. We extract neutrino luminosities and mean energies, and compute quantities of interest such as the peak values, peak broadnesses, time averages and decrease time scales. We provide a systematic description of such quantities, including their dependence on the initial parameters of the system. We find that for equal-mass systems the total neutrino luminosity (several $$10^{53}{\hbox {erg}~{\hbox {s}}^{-1}}$$ 10 53 erg s - 1 ) decreases as the reduced tidal deformability increases, as a consequence of the less violent merger dynamics. Similarly, tidal disruption in asymmetric mergers leads to systematically smaller luminosities. Peak luminosities can be twice as large as the average ones. Electron antineutrino luminosities dominate (initially by a factor of 2-3) over electron neutrino ones, while electron neutrinos and heavy flavour neutrinos have similar luminosities. Mean energies are nearly constant in time and independent on the binary parameters. Their values reflect the different decoupling temperature inside the merger remnant. Despite present uncertainties in neutrino modelling, our results provide a broad and physically grounded characterisation of neutrino emission, and they can serve as a reference point to develop more sophisticated neutrino transport schemes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adjusting neutrino interaction models and evaluating uncertainties using NOvA near detector data

The two-detector design of the NOvA neutrino oscillation experiment, in which two functionally identical detectors are exposed to an intense neutrino beam, aids in canceling leading order effects of cross-section uncertainties. However, limited knowledge of neutrino interaction cross sections still gives rise to some of the largest systematic uncertainties in current oscillation measurements. We show contemporary models of neutrino interactions to be discrepant with data from NOvA, consistent with discrepancies seen in other experiments. Adjustments to neutrino interaction models in GENIE are presented, creating an effective model that improves agreement with our data. We also describe systematic uncertainties on these models, including uncertainties on multi-nucleon interactions from a newly developed procedure using NOvA near detector data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of $\tau _\text {L}$ using the ${B} _s^0 \rightarrow J/\psi \eta$ decay mode

Using a proton–proton collision data sample collected by the LHCb detector and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $5.7~\text {fb}^{-1}$ , the lifetime of the light ${{B} ^0_{s}}$ mass eigenstate, $\tau _{L}$ , is measured using the $B^0_s \rightarrow J/\psi \eta$ decay mode to be $\begin{aligned} \tau _{\text {L}} = 1.445 \pm 0.016 \text {(stat)} \pm 0.008 \text {(syst)} \,\text {ps}. \end{aligned}$ A combination of this result with a previous LHCb analysis using an independent dataset corresponding to 3 fb –1 of integrated luminosity gives $\begin{aligned} \tau _{\text {L}} = 1.452 \pm 0.014 \pm 0.007 \pm 0.002 \,\text {ps}, \end{aligned}$ where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second due to the uncorrelated part of the systematic uncertainty and the third due to the correlated part of the systematic uncertainty.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of beam–beam effects on absolute luminosity calibrations at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

At the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), absolute luminosity calibrations obtained by the van der Meer (vdM) method are affected by the mutual electromagnetic interaction of the two beams. The colliding bunches experience relative orbit shifts, as well as optical distortions akin to the dynamic-β effect, that both depend on the transverse beam separation and must therefore be corrected for when deriving the absolute luminosity scale. In the vdM regime, the beam–beam parameter is small enough that the orbit shift can be calculated analytically. The dynamic-β corrections to the luminometer calibrations, however, had until the end of Run 2 been estimated in the linear approximation only. In this report, the influence of beam–beam effects on the vdM-based luminosity scale is quantified, together with the associated systematic uncertainties, by means of simulations that fully take into account the non-linearity of the beam–beam force, as well as the resulting non-Gaussian distortions of the transverse beam distributions. Two independent multiparticle simulations, one limited to the weak-strong approximation and one that models strong-strong effects in a self-consistent manner, are found in excellent agreement; both predict a percent-level shift of the absolute pp-luminosity values with respect to those assumed until recently in the physics publications of the LHC experiments. These results also provide guidance regarding further studies aimed at reducing the beam–beam-related systematic uncertainty on beam–beam corrections to absolute luminosity calibrations by the van der Meer method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Precise test of lepton flavour universality in W -boson decays into muons and electrons in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The ratio of branching ratios of the $W$ boson to muons and electrons, $R^{μ/e}_{W}$ = $\mathcal{B}$($W$ → $μν$)/$\mathcal{B}$($W$ → $eν$), has been measured using 140 fb -1 of pp collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, probing the universality of lepton couplings. The ratio is obtained from measurements of the $t\overline{t}$ production cross section in the $ee$, $eμ$ and $μμ$ dilepton final states. To reduce systematic uncertainties, it is normalised by the square root of the corresponding ratio $R^{μμ/ee}_{Z}$ for the Z boson measured in inclusive $Z$ → $ee$ and $Z$ → $μμ$ events. By using the precise value of $R^{μμ/ee}_{Z}$ determined from $e^+$ $e^-$ colliders, the ratio $R^{μ/e}_{W}$ is determined to be $R^{μ/e}_{W}$ = 0.9995 ± 0.0022 (stat) ± 0.0036 (syst) ± 0.0014 (ext). The three uncertainties correspond to data statistics, experimental systematics and the external measurement of $R^{μμ/ee}_{Z}$, giving a total uncertainty of 0.0045, and confirming the Standard Model assumption of lepton flavour universality in $W$ boson decays at the 0.5% level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A new benchmark of soft X-ray transition energies of $$\mathrm {Ne}$$, $$\mathrm {CO}_2$$, and $$\mathrm {SF}_6$$: paving a pathway towards ppm accuracy

Abstract A key requirement for the correct interpretation of high-resolution X-ray spectra is that transition energies are known with high accuracy and precision. We investigate the K-shell features of $$\mathrm {Ne}$$ Ne , $$\mathrm {CO}_2$$ CO 2 , and $$\mathrm {SF}_6$$ SF 6 gases, by measuring their photo ion-yield spectra at the BESSY II synchrotron facility simultaneously with the 1s– n p fluorescence emission of He-like ions produced in the Polar-X EBIT. Accurate ab initio calculations of transitions in these ions provide the basis of the calibration. While the $$\mathrm {CO}_2$$ CO 2 result agrees well with previous measurements, the $$\mathrm {SF}_6$$ SF 6 spectrum appears shifted by $$\sim $$ ∼ 0.5 eV, about twice the uncertainty of the earlier results. Our result for $$\mathrm {Ne}$$ Ne shows a large departure from earlier results, but may suffer from larger systematic effects than our other measurements. The molecular spectra agree well with our results of time-dependent density functional theory. We find that the statistical uncertainty allows calibrations in the desired range of 1–10 meV, however, systematic contributions still limit the uncertainty to $${\sim }$$ ∼ 40–100 meV, mainly due to the temporal stability of the monochromator energy scale. Combining our absolute calibration technique with a relative energy calibration technique such as photoelectron energy spectroscopy will be necessary to realize its full potential of achieving uncertainties as low as 1–10 meV. Graphical abstract

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Layered Double Perovskites

Successful strategies for the design of crystalline materials with useful function are frequently based on the systematic tuning of chemical composition within a given structural family. Perovskites with the formula ABX 3 , perhaps the best-known example of such a family, have a vast range of elements on A, B, and X sites, which are associated with a similarly vast range of functionality. Layered double perovskites (LDPs), a subset of this family, are obtained by suitable slicing and restacking of the perovskite structure, with the additional design feature of ordered cations and/or anions. In addition to inorganic LDPs, we also discuss hybrid (organic-inorganic) LDPs here, where the A-site cation is a protonated organic amine. Several examples of inorganic LDPs are presented with a discussion of their ferroic, magnetic, and optical properties. The emerging area of hybrid LDPs is particularly rich and is leading to exciting discoveries of new compounds with unique structures and fascinating optoelectronic properties. We provide context for what is important to consider when designing new materials and conclude with a discussion of future opportunities in the broad LDP area.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Considerations in Long-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Measurements

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments, which are among the largest neutrino experiments in the world, have extensive physics programs to make precision measurements of three-flavor oscillation parameters, search for physics beyond the Standard Model, and study neutrinos from astrophysical sources. In this article, experimental considerations, including oscillation phenomenology, detector and experiment design, and analysis strategies, are described, with a focus on the three-flavor oscillation measurements. Current and future experiments are discussed, and significant sources of systematic uncertainty, along with mitigation strategies, are emphasized as control of systematic uncertainty is critical for success in precise measurement of long-baseline oscillation parameters. This article is structured as a primer for those new to this area of experimental work.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tuning Fluorination of Linear Carbonate for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Liquid electrolyte engineering plays a critical role in modern lithium-ion batteries. However, the existing electrolytes fall short when used with some trending battery chemistries such as high-voltage and high-energy-density electrodes. Fluorination of electrolyte solvents has been identified as an effective approach for improved cyclability, but few works systematically studied the effects of fluorination extent of carbonate solvents on battery performance. Here we design and synthesize a family of fluorinated ethyl methyl carbonates. Different numbers of F atoms are finely tuned to yield monofluoroethyl methyl carbonate (F1EMC), difluoroethyl methyl carbonate (F2EMC) and trifluoroethyl methyl carbonate (F3EMC). The cycling behavior of several types of lithium-ion pouch cells, including graphite (Gr)/single-crystalline LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (SC-NMC811), Gr-SiO x /LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622), high-voltage Gr/LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO), Gr/layered Li-rich Mn-based oxide (LLMO) and fast-charging Gr/NMC622, were systematically investigated to understand the impact of fluorination degree. Compared to the commercially available F3EMC, we found that the partially-fluorinated F1EMC and F2EMC in some cases showed improved cycling stability, which we attribute to their locally-polar –CH 2 F and –CHF 2 groups and thus fast ion conduction than –CF 3 . This work suggests that highly or fully fluorinated solvents are not necessarily desirable; instead, fluorination degree needs to be rationally and finely tuned for optimized lithium-ion cell performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Code for Calculating Regional Seismic Travel Time

The RSTT software computes predictions of the travel time of seismic energy traveling from a source to a receiver through 2.5D models of the seismic velocity distribution within the Earth. The two primary applications for the RSTT library are tomographic inversion studies and seismic event location calculations. In tomographic inversions studies, a seismologist begins with number of source-receiver travel time observations and an initial starting model of the velocity distribution within the Earth. A forward travel time calculator, such as the RSTT library, is used to compute predictions of each observed travel time and all of the residuals (observed minus predicted travel time) are calculated. The Earth model is then modified in some systematic way with the goal of minimizing the residuals. The Earth model obtained in this way is assumed to be a better model than the starting model if it has lower residuals. The other major application for the RSTT library is seismic event location. Given an Earth model, an initial estimate of the location of a seismic event, and some number of observations of seismic travel time thought to have originated from that event, location codes systematically modify the estimate of the location of the event with the goal of minimizing the difference between the observed and predicted travel times. The second application, seismic event location, is routinely implemented by the military as part of its effort to monitor the Earth for nuclear tests conducted by foreign countries.

BALLARD, SANFORD↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Seismic Travel Time v.3.2.0

BALLARD, SANFORD↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis Background & Noise in Stretched Wire Alignment Technique Measurements

The Stretched-Wire Alignment Technique (SWAT) is one method of magnet alignment for linear induction accelerators. The applications of SWAT have been implemented for aligning solenoid magnets on the Scorpius linear induction accelerator which will be sited at the Nevada National Security Site and the Flash X-Ray (FXR) linear induction accelerator at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Contained Firing Facility. This article describes both systematic (repeatable) and random sources of background and noise as well as practical ways to eliminate or reduce them to acceptable levels. Systematic sources include reflections from wire ends, rapid sag due to ohmic heating of the wire, magnetic materials, and shot rate. Random sources include air currents, vibration of nearby equipment, mechanical stability of test equipment, and the instruments used to measure the wire motion. Mitigations include curve fitting and adaptive noise signal cancellation, and mechanical damping. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was used to identify and resolve a repeatable wire vibration frequency interfering with the signal resolution. Two stretched wire alignment technique set ups from Sandia National Labs and Lawrence Livermore National Lab have shown background noise sources and ways of mitigating them by either analysis methods or change of mechanical configuration. Conclusions that were drawn included the severe sensitivity of the deflection to even small external interferences of the SWAT wire such that it requires attention to detail in mechanical set up and analysis.

Linear Inductive Accelerator↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scale-Dependent Value of QPF for Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

Incorporating rainfall forecasts into a real-time streamflow forecasting system extends the forecast lead time. Since quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are subject to substantial uncertainties, questions arise on the trade-off between the time horizon of the QPF and the accuracy of the streamflow forecasts. This study explores the problem systematically, exploring the uncertainties associated with QPFs and their hydrologic predictability. The focus is on scale dependence of the trade-off between the QPF time horizon, basin-scale, space-time scale of the QPF, and streamflow forecasting accuracy. To address this question, the study first performs a comprehensive independent evaluation of the QPFs at 140 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitored basins with a wide range of spatial scales (~10 – 40,000 km 2 ) over the state of Iowa in the Midwestern United States. The study uses High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecasting System (GFS) QPFs for short and medium-range forecasts, respectively. Using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) as a reference, the results show that the rainfall-to-rainfall QPF errors are scale-dependent. The results from the hydrologic forecasting experiment show that both QPFs illustrate clear value for real-time streamflow forecasting at longer lead times in the short- to medium-range relative to the no-rain streamflow forecast. The value of QPFs for streamflow forecasting is particularly apparent for basin sizes below 1,000 km 2 . The space-time scale, or reference time t r ) (ratio of forecast lead time to basin travel time) ~ 1 depicts the largest streamflow forecasting skill with a systematic decrease in forecasting accuracy for t r > 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗