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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data (Final Report)

This project addresses a fundamental flaw in solar PV research and solar project financing; the assumed rate of degradation for solar plants. The solar industry currently relies on an out-dated report that observed a 0.5% degradation rate based on a small sample size of systems (~100). While the research conducted at the time was new and innovative, the solar community has not updated this research and universally applies this 0.5% degradation assumption in financial models. Our project updates this assumption by analyzing observed degradation from the industry’s largest dataset of operating solar assets (>10,000 systems) and creating the first machine-learning model based on these observed results to quantify and identify features that drive degradation. There are two strategic goals for this award: reduce the cost of capital (enable solar to attract more capital) and improve the reliability of solar itself. These dual goals are achieved by leveraging an industry dataset to observe system degradation on a large scale, deploying advanced data analysis and machine learning methods to quantify and predict system reliability, and engaging with industry stakeholders to help them accurately price degradation in financial models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Advanced Extreme Environment Wireless Telemetry System for Turbine Blade Instrumentation

As advanced natural gas power generation systems evolve, the thrust for increased efficiencies and reduced emissions results in increasingly harsh conditions inside the turbine environment. These high temperatures, pressures, and corrosive atmospheres result in accelerated rates of degradation, leading to failure of turbine materials and components. The University of Arkansas (UA) and Siemens, in collaboration with the DoE's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), are developing a reliable and long-term monitoring capability in the turbine hot gas path in the form of novel ceramic-based thermocouples and integrated wide band gap instrumentation electronics that will contribute to the overall reliability of gas turbines. When equipped with better monitoring and controls, power plants can operate with increased fuel-burning efficiency, improved process dynamics and gas concentrations, and increased overall longevity of the power plant components. This will result in increased turbine availability and a reduction in outages and maintenance costs. One of the key aspects to driving forward turbine monitoring capability is the development of high temperature capable integrated circuit (IC) electronics. Previous papers have described 500 °C + electronics that were developed primarily from a combination of discrete single transistors combined with supporting high temperature passive components. While these circuits have been tested successfully in high temperature spin test environments, the move to an IC approach will greatly increase the performance and reliability of turbine monitoring systems. This program is developing such capability through the implementation of silicon carbide (SiC) based ICs, and this paper details the initial approach and early testing of the developed devices. This research represents an important step towards the realization of a field deployable high reliability turbine condition monitoring system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

A practical approach to reconciling availability, performance, and capacity in provisioning extreme-scale storage systems

The increasing data demands from high-performance computing applications significantly accelerate the capacity, capability and reliability requirements of storage systems. As systems scale, component failures and repair times increase, significantly impacting data availability. A wide array of decision points must be balanced in designing such systems. We propose a systematic approach that balances and optimizes both initial and continuous spare provisioning based on a detailed investigation of the anatomy and field failure data analysis of extreme-scale storage systems. We consider the component failure characteristics and its cost and impact at the system level simultaneously. We build a tool to evaluate different provisioning schemes, and the results demonstrate that our optimized provisioning can reduce the duration of data unavailability by as much as 52% under a fixed budget. We also observe that non-disk components have much higher failure rates than disks, and warrant careful considerations in the overall provisioning process.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time control of connected vehicles in signalized corridors using pseudospectral convex optimization

Recent advances in Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) technologies have opened up new opportunities to enable safe, efficient, and sustainable transportation systems. However, developing reliable and rapid speed control algorithms in highly dynamic environments with complex inter-vehicle interactions and nonlinear vehicle dynamics is still a daunting task. In this paper, we develop a novel speed control method for CAVs to produce optimal speed profiles that minimize the fuel consumption and avoid idling at signalized intersections. To this end, an optimal control problem is formulated using the information of the upcoming traffic signal to adapt vehicles' speeds to avoid frequent stop-and-go driving patterns. Here, by applying the pseudospectral discretization method and the sequential convex programming method, the computational efficiency is greatly improved, enabling potential real-time on-vehicle applications. In addition, the algorithm is implemented under a model predictive control framework to ensure online control with instant response for collision avoidance and robust vehicle coordination. The proposed algorithm is verified through numerical simulations of three different traffic scenarios. The convergence and accuracy of the proposed approach are demonstrated by comparing with a popular nonlinear solver. Furthermore, the benefit of the proposed method in both traffic mobility and fuel efficiency is validated using the speed profile determined from a traffic following model in a simulation software as the baseline.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Out-of-distribution detection with non-parametric density estimation for models predicting processing history of uranium ore concentrates

The rapid advancement in machine learning (ML) and computer vision (CV) coincides with the growth of interest in deploying these ML/CV models in numerous fields from medicine to social science. Similar to those areas, we have witnessed a great number of works in materials science employing ML/CV models – neural networks in particular – in their studies in recent years. These models have proven to obtain accurate performance in various tasks. However, these models struggle to attain a similar performance when encountering test samples coming from a distribution that is different from the training set. More importantly, they fail without providing any warning to the users. Therefore, we propose a framework for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples to alert users when a human intervention might be necessary in this work. Specifically, we explore the use of a non-parametric density estimation method to detect OOD samples. Here, we assess OOD detection capability of the proposed framework on ML models developed for categorizing precipitation routes of U 3 O 8 when encountering OOD datasets that contain samples (1) undergone different imaging acquisition process, (2) undergone different material synthesis process, and (3) different materials than ID set. Through those experiments, we achieve an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of at least 91% on average in detecting OOD samples. With minimal overhead cost and superior performance, the proposed framework enables a reliable and safe system when deploying in real-world scenarios.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanism of $\mathrm{E}$-bridge formation by various $\mathrm{PAH}$ molecules: A theoretical study

Potential energy surfaces (PES) for dimerization of acepyrene-pyrene, aceanthracene-anthracene, and acenaphthalene-naphthalene were computed by the G3(MP2,CC) and ONIOM2(G3(MP2,CC):B3LYP/6-31G(d)) methods. Close agreement of relative energies of corresponding species along reaction paths for different reactions was found suggesting that the PES for E-bridge formation depends weakly on the number of rings in the interacting monomers. Our results indicate that the reaction rate is controlled by the dynamics of the initial collision, which may depend on the monomer size. The ONIOM approach is proposed as an accurate tool for calculations of PES in large PAH systems being more reliable than various DFT methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Wigner Monte Carlo approach to density functional theory

In order to simulate quantum N-body systems, stationary and time-dependent density functional theories rely on the capacity of calculating the single-electron wave-functions of a system from which one obtains the total electron density (Kohn–Sham systems). In this paper, we introduce the use of the Wigner Monte Carlo method in ab-initio calculations. This approach allows time-dependent simulations of chemical systems in the presence of reflective and absorbing boundary conditions. It also enables an intuitive comprehension of chemical systems in terms of the Wigner formalism based on the concept of phase-space. Finally, being based on a Monte Carlo method, it scales very well on parallel machines paving the way towards the time-dependent simulation of very complex molecules. A validation is performed by studying the electron distribution of three different systems, a Lithium atom, a Boron atom and a hydrogenic molecule. For the sake of simplicity, we start from initial conditions not too far from equilibrium and show that the systems reach a stationary regime, as expected (despite no restriction is imposed in the choice of the initial conditions). We also show a good agreement with the standard density functional theory for the hydrogenic molecule. These results demonstrate that the combination of the Wigner Monte Carlo method and Kohn–Sham systems provides a reliable computational tool which could, eventually, be applied to more sophisticated problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved guided-wave acoustic defect detection and localization in pipes under varying temperature conditions using deep learning

Early defect detection in pipelines is critical across industries, particularly in the oil and gas sector, where failures result in significant maintenance costs and operational disruptions. Acoustic guided-wave techniques are widely used for nondestructive evaluation of pipeline defects due to their long-distance propagation capability. However, environmental variations, sensitivity limitations, and complex signal interpretation challenges limit the effectiveness of traditional signal processing approaches with guided-wave signals. Recent advances in deep learning methods have demonstrated remarkable success in solving complex real-world problems in many fields. In particular, deep-learning-based signal processing holds substantial promise to overcome limitations and challenges of conventional signal processing. This study presents a deep learning framework for pipeline inspection using acoustic guided-wave signals under temperature varying environments. The proposed framework employs a dual-path one-dimensional convolutional autoencoder that combines defect detection, localization, and temperature prediction functions. The proposed system utilizes multi-mode and broadband acoustic waves with an optimized number of sensors that provide high accuracy while retaining practical simplicity. Experimental validation is performed on a carbon steel pipe. The results indicate exceptional defect detection accuracy and precise defect localization with a mean absolute error of 66 mm. The proposed technique also predicts the effective average temperature of the pipe with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C. Comparative analysis shows superior performance of the proposed method over a traditional method previously developed by the authors' team. These results highlight the potential of integrating deep learning methods into guided-wave pipeline inspection systems to improve reliability under varying environmental conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improving the humidity sensing below 30% RH of TiO2 with GO modification

Highlights: • Rutile phase TiO{sub 2} aggregates were prepared via thermal oxidation of pure Ti-discs, which is simple and inexpensive method. • TiO{sub 2} aggregates with submicron particles based sensor exhibited ultra-high response (R{sub A}/R{sub H{sub 2O}} > 10{sup 6}) to 90% RH. • Sensors based on TiO{sub 2} modified with GO exhibited improved sensitivity, stability and reproducibility. - Abstract: The development of cost-effective, robust, and reliable humidity monitoring system is nowadays in high demand. To this context, humidity sensors based on rutile TiO{sub 2} aggregates were prepared via thermal oxidation of pure Ti-discs at 1000 °C. The sensors based on only TiO{sub 2} aggregates exhibited the ultra-high response of about six orders of magnitude (R{sub A}/R{sub %RH} ∼ 10{sup 6}) to 90% RH with a response time of 28 s and excellent stability. However, these sensors showed no response to RH below 30%, which limits their use in practical applications for such RH level monitoring. Although with a reduced response in high RH, the TiO{sub 2} modified with GO showed potential to overcome this drawback. To understand their functionality, the TiO{sub 2} aggregates and TiO{sub 2}/GO were further characterized by XRD, SEM, TEM, Raman and FT-IR spectroscopy. The presented results are of high interest in terms of wide range humidity monitoring, low-cost and simple synthesis route, and high stability.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Integral nuclear data validation using experimental spent nuclear fuel compositions

Measurements of the isotopic contents of spent nuclear fuel provide experimental data that are a prerequisite for validating computer codes and nuclear data for many spent fuel applications. Under the auspices of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and guidance of the Expert Group on Assay Data of Spent Nuclear Fuel of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety, a new database of expanded spent fuel isotopic compositions has been compiled. The database, Spent Fuel Compositions (SFCOMPO) 2.0, includes measured data for more than 750 fuel samples acquired from 44 different reactors and representing eight different reactor technologies. Measurements for more than 90 isotopes are included. This new database provides data essential for establishing the reliability of code systems for inventory predictions, but it also has broader potential application to nuclear data evaluation. Furthermore, the database, together with adjoint based sensitivity and uncertainty tools for transmutation systems developed to quantify the importance of nuclear data on nuclide concentrations, are described.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Timing and synchronization of the DUNE neutrino detector

The DUNE neutrino experiment far detector has a fiducial mass of 40 kt. The O(1 M) readout channels are distributed over the 4 x 10kt modules and need to be synchronized to O(10 ns) with a reliable, simple, affordable system. For the majority of channels a simple DC-balanced protocol is used, with clock and synchronization information encoded on the same fibre. The remaining channels use “White Rabbit” (IEEE-1588). Small scale tests show a timing jitter of <100 ps. The DUNE timing system has been successfully prototyped at the ProtoDUNE-SP detector at CERN.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Testing Pollen Sorted by Flow Cytometry as the Basis for High-Resolution Lacustrine Chronologies

Documenting leads and lags in terrestrial records of past climate change is critical to understanding the behavior of Earth’s natural climate system and making reliable predictions of future climate conditions. However, uncertainties of several hundred years in age models make it difficult to distinguish synchronicity and feedbacks in paleo archives. In lakes this is often due to the lack of terrestrial macrofossils in climate-sensitive locations, such as high alpine or dryland settings. The potential of radiocarbon (14C) dating of pollen has long been recognized, but the difficulty of cleanly separating pollen from other kinds of organic carbon has limited its usefulness. Here we report 14C ages on pollen separated by flow cytometry, from a set of closely spaced samples from Mono Lake, California. The accuracy of the pollen ages is tested using well-dated bracketing tephras, the South Mono and North Mono-Inyo tephras. In spite of the purity of the sorted samples, the pollen dates are older than the bounding tephras by ~400 yr, similar to some other pollen-dating studies. While improvements in sample preparation protocols are planned, understanding the geological processes involved in the production, preservation, and deposition of pollen at each site will be critical to developing robust high-resolution age models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land Use Change Alters Soil Organic Carbon: Constrained Global Patterns and Predictors

Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha −1 ) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha −1 ), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha −1 ) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha −1 ), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic cycling enhances battery lifetime

Laboratory aging campaigns benchmark and elucidate the complex degradation behavior of lithium-ion batteries, and are critical not only for developing new battery chemistries and cell designs but also for engineering reliable battery management systems. Critically, these laboratory experiments aim to quantify and capture realistic aging mechanisms. In this study, we systematically compare dynamic discharge profiles representative of electric vehicle driving to the well-accepted constant-current profiles. Surprisingly, we discovered that dynamic discharge enhances lifetime substantially compared to constant current discharge. Specifically, for the same average current and voltage window, varying the dynamic discharge profile leads to an increase of up to 38 % in equivalent full cycles at end-of-life. Explainable machine learning reveals the importance of low-frequency current pulses as well as time-induced aging under these realistic discharge conditions. Our work quantifies the importance of evaluating new battery chemistries and designs with realistic load profiles, and highlights the opportunities to revisit our understanding of aging mechanisms at the chemistry, materials, and cell levels.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning for incipient anomaly detection in compact molten salt heat exchanger with overlapping feature distributions

High-temperature molten salt-cooled reactors (MSCRs) are a promising next-generation nuclear technology option, offering efficient power conversion and inherent safety features. However, the reliability of these systems depends on the robust operation of heat exchangers (HXs), which are susceptible to failure due to temperature gradients and channel plugging caused by fluid freezing. Conventional monitoring methods, relying on inlet and outlet measurements, lack the spatial resolution needed to detect early-stage faults. We propose a novel design of a compact salt-to-salt matrix-type HX design consisting of interleaved arrays of parallel tubes, with integrated synthetic fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) to enable localized detection of incipient faults. To evaluate performance of this design, we generate high-fidelity synthetic data using heat transfer computational modeling to simulate channel plugging, and introduce sensor noise for realistic modeling of measurements. The dataset comprises of 97% normal operation and 3% anomaly cases, with each anomaly class representing 1% of the data. These early anomalies result in overlapping temperature profiles between normal and faulty channels, producing a non-separable dataset that challenges traditional classification techniques. We benchmark eight supervised machine learning (ML) models and demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance. To improve transparency, we develop an explainability framework combining Shapley values and partially ordered sets (POSETs) to quantify and structurally analyze feature importance. This approach identifies both dominant predictors and ambiguous feature relationships, enhancing trust and interpretability. Our results highlight the potential of combining DTS and explainable ML with intelligent feature selection to improve predictive maintenance and ensure operational resilience in advanced nuclear systems.

Prantikos, Konstantinos [Argonne National Laborato↗