SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2019

Surrogate Modeling for Capacity Planning of Charging Station Equipped with PV and Hydropneumatic Energy Storage

Due to the promising potential for environmental sustainability, there has been a significant increase of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in the market. To support this increasing demand for EVs and PHEVs, challenges related to capacity planning and investment costs of public charging infrastructure must be addressed. Hence, in this paper, a capacity planning problem for EV charging stations is developed and aims to balance current capital investment costs and future operational revenue. The charging station considered in this work is assumed to be equipped with solar photovoltaic panel (PV) and an energy storage system which could be electric battery or the recently invented hydro-pneumatic energy storage (GLIDES, Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage) system. A co-optimization model that minimizes investment and operation cost is established to determine the global optimal solution while combining the capacity and operational decision making. The operational decision making considers EV mobility which is modeled as an Erlang-loss system. Meanwhile, stochastic programming is adopted to capture uncertainties from solar radiation and charging demand of the EV fleet. To provide a more general and computationally efficient model, main configuration parameters are sampled in the design space and then fixed in solving the co-optimization model. The model can be used to provide insights for charging station placement in different practical situations. The sampled parameters include: the total number of EV charging slots, the PV area, the maximum capacity of the energy storage system, and daily mean EV arrival number in the Erlang-loss system. Based on the sampled parameter combinations and its responses, black-box mappings are then constructed using surrogate models (RBF, Kriging etc). The effectiveness of proposed surrogate modeling approach is demonstrated in the numerical experiments.

Chen, Yang↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1979

A multi-disciplinary approach to structural design for stochastic loads

The development of aircraft gust design techniques is reviewed with emphasis on those techniques applicable to large scale multidisciplinary closed-loop optimization methods. An overall view is presented of the optimization methodology utilized. An analysis is presented wherein the bivariate normal distribution function for a particular loading condition is considered. By use of maximization techniques, functions are derived for stress components along equal probability contours which allow for directionality and auto-correlation effects to be considered. These functions are then applied to the problem being considered and the effects on the structural sizing and weight penalties evaluated against more conventional methods.

Gross, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Stochastic Filtering of Rain Profiles Using Radar, Surface-Referenced Radar, or Combined Radar-Radiometer Measurements

This paper describes a computationally efficient nearly optimal Bayesian algorithm to estimate rain (and drop size distribution) profiles, given a radar reflectivity profile at a single attenuating wavelength. In addition to estimating the averages of all the mutually ambiguous combinations of rain parameters that can produce the data observed, the approach also calculates the n-ns uncertainty in its estimates (this uncertainty thus quantifies "the amount of ambiguity" in the "solution"). The paper also describes a more general approach that can make estimates based on a radar reflectivity profile together with an approximate measurement of the path-integrated attenuation, or a radar reflectivity profile and a set of passive microwave brightness temperatures. This more general "combined" algorithm is currently being adapted for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

Haddad, Ziad S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Globally Optimal Particle Tracking Technique for Stereo Imaging Velocimetry Experiments

An important phase of any Stereo Imaging Velocimetry experiment is particle tracking. Particle tracking seeks to identify and characterize the motion of individual particles entrained in a fluid or air experiment. We analyze a cylindrical chamber filled with water and seeded with density-matched particles. In every four-frame sequence, we identify a particle track by assigning a unique track label for each camera image. The conventional approach to particle tracking is to use an exhaustive tree-search method utilizing greedy algorithms to reduce search times. However, these types of algorithms are not optimal due to a cascade effect of incorrect decisions upon adjacent tracks. We examine the use of a guided evolutionary neural net with simulated annealing to arrive at a globally optimal assignment of tracks. The net is guided both by the minimization of the search space through the use of prior limiting assumptions about valid tracks and by a strategy which seeks to avoid high-energy intermediate states which can trap the net in a local minimum. A stochastic search algorithm is used in place of back-propagation of error to further reduce the chance of being trapped in an energy well. Global optimization is achieved by minimizing an objective function, which includes both track smoothness and particle-image utilization parameters. In this paper we describe our model and present our experimental results. We compare our results with a nonoptimizing, predictive tracker and obtain an average increase in valid track yield of 27 percent

McDowell, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2016

Enhancing capillary trapping effectiveness through proper time scheduling of injection of supercritical CO 2 in heterogeneous formations

The impact of geologic heterogeneity on capillary trapping of supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) has been recognized and appraised through laboratory experimentation and modeling. However, how different injection strategies can be optimized to improve capillary trapping has not received adequate attention. Here, we present a study based on stochastic analysis to show the impact of injection scheduling on capillary trapping of scCO 2 in heterogeneous geological formations. Improvement of trapping efficiency consists of maximizing the trapped volume within a predefined secure zone of the storage formation with the goal of avoiding plume intersection with potential leakage pathways. Using knowledge acquired from physical experiments in intermediate-scale tanks with controlled heterogeneity, we conduct numerical simulations following a stochastic approach to extend the observed outcomes to a series of equally probable permeability scenarios. Our simulations involve the same combination of surrogate fluids that are used in the experiments to mimic viscosity and density contrasts between scCO 2 and brine. To account for uncertainty of formation heterogeneity, several permeability fields with three different variances and two horizontal correlation lengths are generated. The same volume of scCO 2 is emplaced using four different modes of injection scheduling. Results suggest that injection strategies aimed at enhancing capillary trapping of scCO 2 and increasing the probability of constraining the plume within a secure zone are strictly related to the specific heterogeneity of the reservoir. Finally, this preliminary theoretical finding suggests the potential for maximizing secure capillary trapping through the proper selection of injection schedule to fit the formation heterogeneity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

The triple decomposition of a fluctuating velocity field in a multiscale flow

A new method for the triple decomposition of a multiscale flow, which is based on the novel optimal mode decomposition (OMD) technique, is presented. OMD provides low order linear dynamics, which fits a given data set in an optimal way and is used to distinguish between a coherent (periodic) part of a flow and a stochastic fluctuation. The method needs no external phase indication since this information, separate for coherent structures associated with each length scale introduced into the flow, appears as the output. The proposed technique is compared against two traditional methods of the triple decomposition, i.e., bin averaging and proper orthogonal decomposition. This is done with particle image velocimetry data documenting the near wake of a multiscale bar array. It is shown that both traditional methods are unable to provide a reliable estimation for the coherent fluctuation while the proposed technique performs very well. The crucial result is that the coherence peaks are not observed within the spectral properties of the stochastic fluctuation derived with the proposed method; however, these properties remain unaltered at the residual frequencies. This proves the method’s capability of making a distinction between both types of fluctuations. The sensitivity to some prescribed parameters is checked revealing the technique’s robustness. Additionally, an example of the method application for analysis of a multiscale flow is given, i.e., the phase conditioned transverse integral length is investigated in the near wake region of the multiscale object array.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

HackAttack: Game-Theoretic Analysis of Realistic Cyber Conflicts

Game theory is appropriate for studying cyber conflict because it allows for an intelligent and goal-driven adversary. Applications of game theory have led to a number of results regarding optimal attack and defense strategies. However, the overwhelming majority of applications explore overly simplistic games, often ones in which each participant s actions are visible to every other participant. These simplifications strip away the fundamental properties of real cyber conflicts: probabilistic alerting, hidden actions, unknown opponent capabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to analyze a more realistic game, one in which different resources have different weaknesses, players have different exploits, and moves occur in secrecy, but they can be detected. Certainly, more advanced and complex games are possible, but the game presented here is more realistic than any other game we know of in the scientific literature. While optimal strategies can be found for simpler games using calculus, case-by-case analysis, or, for stochastic games, Q-learning, our more complex game is more naturally analyzed using the same methods used to study other complex games, such as checkers and chess. We define a simple evaluation function and employ multi-step searches to create strategies. We show that such scenarios can be analyzed, and find that in cases of extreme uncertainty, it is often better to ignore one s opponent s possible moves. Furthermore, we show that a simple evaluation function in a complex game can lead to interesting and nuanced strategies.

botnets↗

DOE OSTI2021

Release a public version of HERON (HERON 2.0) with improved algorithms for the treatment of energy storage

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) is a generic software plugin for the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) to perform stochastic technoeconomic analysis of IES with economic drivers. This report summarizes the updates made to HERON 2.0. Particularly, we demonstrate one of the added features, Function-based Control Mechanics, by comparing a price-based dispatch strategy with the original perfect foresight baselines. Our case studies successfully demonstrate that the model is capable to incorporate artificial control algorithm into the dispatch of IES components. In addition, our results from the price-based strategy indicate that the control strategies of IES components are key to the economic and temporal performance of our model; therefore, more sophisticated dispatch strategies are required to improve the model performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1989

Flutter suppression control law synthesis for the Active Flexible Wing model

The Active Flexible Wing Project is a collaborative effort between the NASA Langley Research Center and Rockwell International. The objectives are the validation of methodologies associated with mathematical modeling, flutter suppression control law development and digital implementation of the control system for application to flexible aircraft. A flutter suppression control law synthesis for this project is described. The state-space mathematical model used for the synthesis included ten flexible modes, four control surface modes and rational function approximation of the doublet-lattice unsteady aerodynamics. The design steps involved developing the full-order optimal control laws, reducing the order of the control law, and optimizing the reduced-order control law in both the continuous and the discrete domains to minimize stochastic response. System robustness was improved using singular value constraints. An 8th order robust control law was designed to increase the symmetric flutter dynamic pressure by 100 percent. Preliminary results are provided and experiences gained are discussed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS1989

Flutter suppression control law synthesis for the active flexible wing model

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS1993

The isolation limits of stochastic vibration

The vibration isolation problem is formulated as a 1D kinematic problem. The geometry of the stochastic wall trajectories arising from the stroke constraint is defined in terms of their significant extrema. An optimal control solution for the minimum acceleration return path determines a lower bound on platform mean square acceleration. This bound is expressed in terms of the probability density function on the significant maxima and the conditional fourth moment of the first passage time inverse. The first of these is found analytically while the second is found using a Monte Carlo simulation. The rms acceleration lower bound as a function of available space is then determined through numerical quadrature.

Knopse, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Contextual Active Online Model Selection with Expert Advice

How can we collect the most useful labels to learn a model selection policy, when presented with arbitrary heterogeneous data streams? In this paper, we formulate this task as a contextual active model selection problem, where at each round the learner receives an unlabeled data point along with a context. The goal is to output the best model for any given context without obtaining an excessive amount of labels. In particular, we focus on the task of selecting pre-trained classifiers, and propose a contextual active model selection algorithm (CAMS), which relies on a novel uncertainty sampling query criterion defined on a given policy class for adaptive model selection. In comparison to prior art, our algorithm does not assume a globally optimal model. We provide rigorous theoretical analysis for the regret and query complexity under both adversarial and stochastic settings. Our experiments on several benchmark classification datasets demonstrate the algorithm’s effectiveness in terms of both regret and query complexity. Notably, to achieve the same accuracy, CAMS incurs less than 10% of the label cost when compared to the best online model selection baselines on CIFAR10.

Liu, Xuefeng↗

NASA NTRS2012

Improving Balance Function Using Low Levels of Electrical Stimulation of the Balance Organs

Crewmembers returning from long-duration space flight face significant challenges due to the microgravity-induced inappropriate adaptations in balance/sensorimotor function. The Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC is developing a method based on stochastic resonance to enhance the brain's ability to detect signals from the balance organs of the inner ear and use them for rapid improvement in balance skill, especially when combined with balance training exercises. This method involves a stimulus delivery system that is wearable/portable and provides imperceptible electrical stimulation to the balance organs of the human body. Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the response of a nonlinear system to a weak periodic input signal is optimized by the presence of a particular non-zero level of noise. This phenomenon of SR is based on the concept of maximizing the flow of information through a system by a non-zero level of noise. Application of imperceptible SR noise coupled with sensory input in humans has been shown to improve motor, cardiovascular, visual, hearing, and balance functions. SR increases contrast sensitivity and luminance detection; lowers the absolute threshold for tone detection in normal hearing individuals; improves homeostatic function in the human blood pressure regulatory system; improves noise-enhanced muscle spindle function; and improves detection of weak tactile stimuli using mechanical or electrical stimulation. SR noise has been shown to improve postural control when applied as mechanical noise to the soles of the feet, or when applied as electrical noise at the knee and to the back muscles. SR using imperceptible stochastic electrical stimulation of the vestibular system (stochastic vestibular stimulation, SVS) applied to normal subjects has shown to improve the degree of association between the weak input periodic signals introduced via venous blood pressure receptors and the heart-rate responses. Also, application of SVS over 24 hours improves the long-term heart-rate dynamics and motor responsiveness as indicated by daytime trunk activity measurements in patients with multi-system atrophy, Parkinson s disease, or both, including patients who were unresponsive to standard therapy for Parkinson s disease. Recent studies conducted at the NASA JSC Neurosciences Laboratories showed that imperceptible SVS, when applied to normal young healthy subjects, leads to significantly improved balance performance during postural disturbances on unstable compliant surfaces. These studies have shown the benefit of SR noise characteristic optimization with imperceptible SVS in the frequency range of 0-30 Hz, and amplitudes of stimulation have ranged from 100 to 400 microamperes.

Bloomberg, Jacob↗

NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating the Effects of Missing Values and Mixed Data Types on Social Sequence Clustering Using t-SNE Visualization

© 2019 Association for Computing Machinery. The goal of this work is to investigate the impact of missing values in clustering joint categorical social sequences. Identifying patterns in sociodemographic longitudinal data is important in a number of social science settings. However, performing analytical operations, such as clustering on life course trajectories, is challenging due to the categorical and multidimensional nature of the data, their mixed data types, and corruption by missing and inconsistent values. Data quality issues were investigated previously on single variable sequences. To understand their effects on multivariate sequence analysis, we employ a dataset of mixed data types and missing values, a dissimilarity measure designed for joint categorical sequence data, together with dimensionality reduction methodologies in a systematic design of sequence clustering experiments. Given the categorical nature of our data, we employ an “edit” distance using optimal matching. Because each data record has multiple variables of different types, we investigate the impact of mixing these variables in a single dissimilarity measure. Between variables with binary values and those with multiple nominal values, we find that the ability to overcome missing data problems is more difficult in the nominal domain than in the binary domain. Additionally, alignment of leading missing values can result in systematic biases in dissimilarity matrices and subsequently introduce both artificial clusters and unrealistic interpretations of associated data domains. We demonstrate the usage of t-distributed stochastic neighborhood embedding to visually guide mitigation of such biases by tuning the missing value substitution cost parameter or determining an optimal sequence span.

Lazar, Alina↗

DOE OSTI2021

Shape Stability of Truncated Octahedral fcc Metal Nanocrystals

Metallic nanocrystals (NCs) can be synthesized with tailored nonequilibrium shapes to enhance desired properties, e.g., octahedral fcc metal NCs optimize catalytic activity associated with {111} facets. However, maintenance of optimized properties requires stability against thermal reshaping. Thus, we analyze the reshaping of truncated fcc metal octahedra mediated by surface diffusion using a stochastic atomistic-level model with energetic input parameters for Pd. Furthermore, the model describes NC thermodynamics by an effective nearest-neighbor interaction and includes a realistic treatment of diffusive hopping for undercoordinated surface atoms. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the effective barrier, E eff , for the initial stage of reshaping is strongly tied to the degree of truncation of the vertices in the synthesized initial octahedral shapes. This feature is elucidated via exact analytic determination of the energy variation along the optimal reshaping pathway at low-temperature (T), which involves transfer of atoms from truncated {100} vertex facets to form new layers on {111} side facets. Deviations from predictions of the low-T analysis due to entropic effects are more prominent for higher T and larger NC sizes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗