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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmology from Galaxy Clusters Detected Via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect

We present constraints on cosmological parameters based on a sample of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich-selected galaxy clusters detected in a millimeter-wave survey by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope. The cluster sample used in this analysis consists of 9 optically-confirmed high-mass clusters comprising the high-significance end of the total cluster sample identified in 455 square degrees of sky surveyed during 2008 at 148 GHz. We focus on the most massive systems to reduce the degeneracy between unknown cluster astrophysics and cosmology derived from SZ surveys. We describe the scaling relation between cluster mass and SZ signal with a 4-parameter fit. Marginalizing over the values of the parameters in this fit with conservative priors gives (sigma)8 = 0.851 +/- 0.115 and w = -1.14 +/- 0.35 for a spatially-flat wCDM cosmological model with WMAP 7-year priors on cosmological parameters. This gives a modest improvement in statistical uncertainty over WMAP 7-year constraints alone. Fixing the scaling relation between cluster mass and SZ signal to a fiducial relation obtained from numerical simulations and calibrated by X-ray observations, we find (sigma)8 + 0.821 +/- 0.044 and w = -1.05 +/- 0.20. These results are consistent with constraints from WMAP 7 plus baryon acoustic oscillations plus type Ia supernova which give (sigma)8 = 0.802 +/- 0.038 and w = -0.98 +/- 0.053. A stacking analysis of the clusters in this sample compared to clusters simulated assuming the fiducial model also shows good agreement. These results suggest that, given the sample of clusters used here, both the astrophysics of massive clusters and the cosmological parameters derived from them are broadly consistent with current models.

Sehgal, Neelima↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Analytic Function of Lunar Surface Temperature for Exospheric Modeling

We present an analytic expression to represent the lunar surface temperature as a function of Sun-state latitude and local time. The approximation represents neither topographical features nor compositional effects and therefore does not change as a function of selenographic latitude and longitude. The function reproduces the surface temperature measured by Diviner to within +/-10 K at 72% of grid points for dayside solar zenith angles of less than 80, and at 98% of grid points for nightside solar zenith angles greater than 100. The analytic function is least accurate at the terminator, where there is a strong gradient in the temperature, and the polar regions. Topographic features have a larger effect on the actual temperature near the terminator than at other solar zenith angles. For exospheric modeling the effects of topography on the thermal model can be approximated by using an effective longitude for determining the temperature. This effective longitude is randomly redistributed with 1 sigma of 4.5deg. The resulting ''roughened'' analytical model well represents the statistical dispersion in the Diviner data and is expected to be generally useful for future models of lunar surface temperature, especially those implemented within exospheric simulations that address questions of volatile transport.

moon↗
NASA NTRS2019

Cellular Statistical Models of Broken Cloud Fields. Part IV: Effects of Pixel Size on Idealized Satellite Observations

In the fourth part of our “Cellular Statistical Models of Broken Cloud Fields” series we use the binary Markov processes framework for quantitative investigation of the effects of low resolution of idealized satellite observations on the statistics of the retrieved cloud masks. We assume that the cloud fields are Markovian and are characterized by the “actual” cloud fraction (CF) and scale length. We use two different models of observations: a simple discrete-point sampling and a more realistic “pixel” protocol. The latter is characterized by a state attribution function (SAF) which has the meaning of the probability that the pixel with a certain CF is declared cloudy in the observed cloud mask. The stochasticity of the SAF means that the cloud/clear attribution is not ideal and can be affected by external or unknown factors. We show that the observed cloud masks can be accurately described as Markov chains of pixels and use the master-matrix formalism (introduced in Part III of the series) for analytical computation of their parameters: the “observed” CF and scale length. This procedure allows us to establish a quantitative relationship (which is pixel-size dependent) between the actual and the observed cloud-field statistics. The feasibility of restoring the former from the latter is considered. The adequacy of our analytical approach to idealized observations is evaluated using numerical simulations. Comparison of the observed parameters of the simulated datasets with their theoretical expectations showed an agreement within 0.005 for the CF, while for the scale length it is within 1% in the sampling case and within 4% in the pixel case.

Mikhail D. Alexandrov↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Linear Analysis for the Flight Path Control of the Cassini Grand Finale Orbits

Cassini’s Grand Finale Mission begins after the last targeted Titan flyby on April 22, 2017 and ends with a series of 22 ballistic orbits each passing within a few thousand kilometers of the cloud tops of Saturn, ultimately impacting the planet on September 15, 2017. Despite the ballistic nature of the trajectory, the absence of targeted maneuvers throughout the final orbits causes position uncertainties to grow exponentially with time, posing a significant difficulty for the science sequence planning team. Thus, a strategy that incorporates trajectory correction maneuvers was developed to significantly reduce dispersions from the reference path and maintain dispersions below 250 km (1- ). In this paper, the linear method used to determine the optimal number and location of the maneuvers to control the trajectory, along with the corresponding targets, is detailed. A nonlinear Monte Carlo trajectory dispersion tool served as a testbed to validate the linear analysis results. Based on orbit determination covariance sampling with Monte Carlo simulations, the linear approach allowed the Cassini maneuver analysts to run thousands of maneuver combinations in little time, eventually finding an optimal strategy with three statistical maneuvers ( V99 < 1.5 m/s) to adequately control most of the trajectory.

Vaquero, Mar↗
NASA NTRS2010

Low and High Frequency Models of Response Statistics of a Cylindrical Orthogrid Vehicle Panel to Acoustic Excitation

This presentation further develops the orthogrid vehicle panel work. Employed Hybrid Module capabilities to assess both low/mid frequency and high frequency models in the VA One simulation environment. The response estimates from three modeling approaches are compared to ground test measurements. Detailed Finite Element Model of the Test Article -Expect to capture both the global panel modes and the local pocket mode response, but at a considerable analysis expense (time & resources). A Composite Layered Construction equivalent global stiffness approximation using SEA -Expect to capture response of the global panel modes only. An SEA approximation using the Periodic Subsystem Formulation. A finite element model of a single periodic cell is used to derive the vibroacoustic properties of the entire periodic structure (modal density, radiation efficiency, etc. Expect to capture response at various locations on the panel (on the skin and on the ribs) with less analysis expense

Smith, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2018

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique pattern of interaction with the visual environment. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as a piloting an aircraft, where activities with distinct visual signatures might be things like communicating, navigating, and monitoring. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these hypothetical activities. The method is in some respects similar to recurrence analysis, but here we compare not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval. The duration of this interval is a parameter that we will refer to as delta. We assume that the environment has been divided into a set of N different areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given interval of time of duration delta, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector. These proportions can be converted to integer counts by multiplying by delta divided by the average fixation duration (another parameter that we fix at 280 milliseconds). We compare different intervals by computing the chi-square statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. The method has been applied to approximately 100 hours of eye movement data collected from pilots in a high-fidelity B747 flight simulator, and the results have been compared to synthetic data in which the each activity is represented as first-order Markov process with random probabilities assigned to the AOIs. Randomly-generated synthetic activities can require thousands of fixations to be discriminated with statistical significance, while the human data can be clustered using averaging windows of some 10's of seconds, suggesting that the actual activities are much more narrowly focused than random Markov models.

activity analysis↗
NASA NTRS2005

Characterization of the Space Shuttle Ascent Debris using CFD Methods

After video analysis of space shuttle flight STS-107's ascent showed that an object shed from the bipod-ramp region impacted the left wing, a transport analysis was initiated to determine a credible flight path and impact velocity for the piece of debris. This debris transport analysis was performed both during orbit, and after the subsequent re-entry accident. The analysis provided an accurate prediction of the velocity a large piece of foam bipod ramp would have as it impacted the wing leading edge. This prediction was corroborated by video analysis and fully-coupled CFD/six degree of freedom (DOF) simulations. While the prediction of impact velocity was accurate enough to predict critical damage in this case, one of the recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) for return-to-flight (RTF) was to analyze the complete debris environment experienced by the shuttle stack on ascent. This includes categorizing all possible debris sources, their probable geometric and aerodynamic characteristics, and their potential for damage. This paper is chiefly concerned with predicting the aerodynamic characteristics of a variety of potential debris sources (insulating foam and cork, nose-cone ablator, ice, ...) for the shuttle ascent configuration using CFD methods. These aerodynamic characteristics are used in the debris transport analysis to predict flight path, impact velocity and angle, and provide statistical variation to perform risk analyses where appropriate. The debris aerodynamic characteristics are difficult to determine using traditional methods, such as static or dynamic test data, due to the scaling requirements of simulating a typical debris event. The use of CFD methods has been a critical element for building confidence in the accuracy of the debris transport code by bridging the gap between existing aerodynamic data and the dynamics of full-scale, in-flight events.

Murman, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Simulation of Long Lived Tracers Using an Improved Empirically Based Two-Dimensional Model Transport Algorithm

We have developed a new empirically-based transport algorithm for use in our GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry model. The new algorithm contains planetary wave statistics, and parameterizations to account for the effects due to gravity waves and equatorial Kelvin waves. As such, this scheme utilizes significantly more information compared to our previous algorithm which was based only on zonal mean temperatures and heating rates. The new model transport captures much of the qualitative structure and seasonal variability observed in long lived tracers, such as: isolation of the tropics and the southern hemisphere winter polar vortex; the well mixed surf-zone region of the winter sub-tropics and mid-latitudes; the latitudinal and seasonal variations of total ozone; and the seasonal variations of mesospheric H2O. The model also indicates a double peaked structure in methane associated with the semiannual oscillation in the tropical upper stratosphere. This feature is similar in phase but is significantly weaker in amplitude compared to the observations. The model simulations of carbon-14 and strontium-90 are in good agreement with observations, both in simulating the peak in mixing ratio at 20-25 km, and the decrease with altitude in mixing ratio above 25 km. We also find mostly good agreement between modeled and observed age of air determined from SF6 outside of the northern hemisphere polar vortex. However, observations inside the vortex reveal significantly older air compared to the model. This is consistent with the model deficiencies in simulating CH4 in the northern hemisphere winter high latitudes and illustrates the limitations of the current climatological zonal mean model formulation. The propagation of seasonal signals in water vapor and CO2 in the lower stratosphere showed general agreement in phase, and the model qualitatively captured the observed amplitude decrease in CO2 from the tropics to midlatitudes. However, the simulated seasonal amplitudes were attenuated too rapidly with altitude in the tropics. Overall, the simulations with the new transport formulation are in substantially better agreement with observations compared with our previous model transport.

Fleming, E. L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Simulation of Long Lived Tracers Using an Improved Empirically-Based Two-Dimensional Model Transport Algorithm

We have developed a new empirically-based transport algorithm for use in our GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry assessment model. The new algorithm contains planetary wave statistics, and parameterizations to account for the effects due to gravity waves and equatorial Kelvin waves. We will present an overview of the new algorithm, and show various model-data comparisons of long-lived tracers as part of the model validation. We will also show how the new algorithm gives substantially better agreement with observations compared to our previous model transport. The new model captures much of the qualitative structure and seasonal variability observed methane, water vapor, and total ozone. These include: isolation of the tropics and winter polar vortex, the well mixed surf-zone region of the winter sub-tropics and mid-latitudes, and the propagation of seasonal signals in the tropical lower stratosphere. Model simulations of carbon-14 and strontium-90 compare fairly well with observations in reproducing the peak in mixing ratio at 20-25 km, and the decrease with altitude in mixing ratio above 25 km. We also ran time dependent simulations of SF6 from which the model mean age of air values were derived. The oldest air (5.5 to 6 years) occurred in the high latitude upper stratosphere during fall and early winter of both hemispheres, and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere during late winter and early spring. The latitudinal gradient of the mean ages also compare well with ER-2 aircraft observations in the lower stratosphere.

Fleming, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Aircraft Separation Algorithm with Feedback and Perturbation

A separation algorithm is a set of rules that tell aircraft how to maneuver in order to maintain a minimum distance between them. This paper investigates demonstrating that separation algorithms satisfy the FAA requirement for the occurrence of incidents by means of simulation. Any demonstration that a separation algorithm, or any other aspect of flight, satisfies the FAA requirement is a challenge because of the stringent nature of the requirement and the complexity of airspace operations. The paper begins with a probability and statistical analysis of both the FAA requirement and demonstrating meeting it by a Monte Carlo approach. It considers the geometry of maintaining separation when one plane must change its flight path. It then develops a simple feedback control law that guides the planes on their paths. The presence of feedback control permits the introduction of perturbations, and the stochastic nature of the chosen perturbation is examined. The simulation program is described. This paper is an early effort in the realistic demonstration of a stringent requirement. Much remains to be done.

White, Allan L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Molecular dynamics simulation of a piston driven shock wave in a hard sphere gas

Molecular dynamics simulation is used to study the piston driven shock wave at Mach 1.5, 3, and 10. A shock tube, whose shape is a circular cylinder, is filled with hard sphere molecules having a Maxwellian thermal velocity distribution and zero mean velocity. The piston moves and a shock wave is generated. All collisions are specular, including those between the molecules and the computational boundaries, so that the shock development is entirely causal, with no imposed statistics. The structure of the generated shock is examined in detail, and the wave speed; profiles of density, velocity, and temperature; and shock thickness are determined. The results are compared with published results of other methods, especially the direct simulation Monte-Carlo method. Property profiles are similar to those generated by direct simulation Monte-Carlo method. The shock wave thicknesses are smaller than the direct simulation Monte-Carlo results, but larger than those of the other methods. Simulation of a shock wave, which is one-dimensional, is a severe test of the molecular dynamics method, which is always three-dimensional. A major challenge of the thesis is to examine the capability of the molecular dynamics methods by choosing a difficult task.

Woo, Myeung-Jouh↗
NASA NTRS2004

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1986

Modeling, estimation and identification methods for static shape determination of flexible structures

This paper outlines methods for modeling, identification and estimation for static determination of flexible structures. The shape estimation schemes are based on structural models specified by (possibly interconnected) elliptic partial differential equations. The identification techniques provide approximate knowledge of parameters in elliptic systems. The techniques are based on the method of maximum-likelihood that finds parameter values such that the likelihood functional associated with the system model is maximized. The estimation methods are obtained by means of a function-space approach that seeks to obtain the conditional mean of the state given the data and a white noise characterization of model errors. The solutions are obtained in a batch-processing mode in which all the data is processed simultaneously. After methods for computing the optimal estimates are developed, an analysis of the second-order statistics of the estimates and of the related estimation error is conducted. In addition to outlining the above theoretical results, the paper presents typical flexible structure simulations illustrating performance of the shape determination methods.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Signal detection amid noise with known statistics

Conventional methods of signal detection are based on the comparison of a local signal-to-noise ratio S/N to some threshold value. We present a new method that compares instead the histogram of the data with the one expected for background noise alone. Signals are detected from discrepancies between the two. We expect it to be applicable in the detection of signals from any data whose background statistics is known. To illustrate the method, we apply it to the case of photon-limited imaging data where the underlying background is Poissonian. Numerical simulations are used to check the efficiency of our method, finding that for signals with low S/N (less than 5), it detects signals with a higher degree of reliability than the conventional method.

Zepka, A. F.↗