Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “SURROGATE MODELS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Using Computer Simulations to Optimize Biofuel Production

The DOE strives to ensure America's security and prosperity by addressing energy challenges. NREL shares this goal and tries to achieve a clean energy world. Fossil fuels are problematic for both organizations. Using them endangers American security. Their supply is finite and burning them causes environmental damage. Biofuels are a good alternative to fossil fuels. They are renewably produced on American soil and can lower greenhouse gas emissions. Also, cars and planes need no costly mechanical adjustments to use biofuels. However, the fuels themselves are expensive. For my SULI project, I reduced the cost of biofuels by optimizing the production process through computer simulations. Existing simulations were accurate but slow. One simulation takes up to eight hours, and researchers must do hundreds. My solution reduces the computing time. I treated the biomass particles in the simulation as one-dimensional. That simplified the simulation equations, making them easier for the computer to solve. Still, biomass particles are three-dimensional. The 1D assumption was wrong and produced inaccurate results. To maintain accuracy while increasing speed, I developed a method to convert 1D simulation results into usable 3D data. I adjusted the 1D simulation until the output matched the 3D results for a specific environment. I found out how much the simulation changed when the environment changed. Machine learning algorithms defined a relationship between 1D and 3D data for all environments. This lets scientists convert fast 1D simulation results into valid 3D data.

1D↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-parallel Fourier neural operators as learned surrogates for large-scale parametric PDEs

Fourier neural operators (FNOs) are a recently introduced neural network architecture for learning solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs), which have been shown to perform significantly better than comparable deep learning approaches. Once trained, FNOs can achieve speed-ups of multiple orders of magnitude over conventional numerical PDE solvers. However, due to the high dimensionality of their input data and network weights, FNOs have so far only been applied to two-dimensional or small three-dimensional problems. To remove this limited problem-size barrier, we propose a model-parallel version of FNOs based on domain-decomposition of both the input data and network weights. Here, we demonstrate that our model-parallel FNO is able to predict time-varying PDE solutions of over 2.6 billion variables on Perlmutter using up to 512 A100 GPUs and show an example of training a distributed FNO on the Azure cloud for simulating multiphase CO 2 dynamics in the Earth’s subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SABATH: Surrogate AI Benchmarking Applications' Testing Harness

SABATH provides benchmarking infrastructure for evaluating scientific ML/AI models. It contains support for scientific machine learning surrogates from external repositories. The software dependences are explicitly exposed in the surrogate model definition, which allows the use of advanced optimization, communication, and hardware features.

Luszczek, Piotr [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of strength model parameters from Taylor impact data

Materials strength plays a key role in determining the mechanical response of engineered structures. As such, accurate strength models are crucial in simulations involving complex loading conditions, particularly when deformation in the plastic regime is deemed important. In this work, a Gaussian process based surrogate for a finite element simulation of a Taylor impact test is developed and used for Bayesian calibration of the Preston–Tonks–Wallace strength model. Here, the surrogate model is shown to closely approximate the salient features of the Taylor cylinder deformation and is validated against simulation output before being used in the strength model calibration routine. The results show that Taylor impact test data can be used in the calibration of constitutive equations through the use of a combination of data science techniques, namely Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat Sizing Methodology for Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for industrial process heat (IPH) applications at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550 degrees Celsius. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWhth. Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 8 - 12 m2; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats under deployment at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of alloying on intrinsic ductility in WTaCrV high entropy alloys

Tungsten (W) exhibits desirable properties for extreme applications, such as the divertor in magnetic fusion reactors, but its practicality remains limited due to poor formability and insufficient irradiation resistance. In this work, we study the intrinsic ductility of body-centered cubic WTaCrV based high entropy alloys (HEAs), which are known to exhibit excellent irradiation resistance. The ductility evaluations are carried out using a criterion based on the competition between the critical stress intensity factors for emission (K Ie ) and cleavage (K Ic ) in the {110} slip planes and {110} crack planes, which are evaluated within the linear elastic fracture mechanics framework and computed using density functional theory. The results suggest that increasing the alloying concentrations of V and reducing the concentrations of W can significantly improve the ductility in these HEAs. The elastic anisotropy for these HEAs is analyzed using the Zener anisotropy ratio and its correlation with the concentration of W in the alloys is studied. Results indicate that these alloys tend to be fairly isotropic independently from the concentration of W in them. The computed data for the elastic constants of these HEAs is also compared against available experimental data. The results are in good agreement, validating the robustness and accuracy of the computational methods. Multiple phenomenological ductility metrics were also computed and analyzed against the analytical model. Some metrics, mainly the surrogate D parameter, show a good correlation with the Rice model. The potential of these empirical metrics to serve as surrogate screening models for optimizing the compositional space is also discussed.

Anisotropy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling with uncertainty quantification reveals the essentials of a non-canonical algal carbon-concentrating mechanism

The thermoacidophilic red alga Cyanidioschyzon merolae survives its challenging environment likely in part by operating a carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM). Here, we demonstrated that C. merolae 's cellular affinity for CO 2 is stronger than the affinity of its rubisco for CO 2 . This finding provided additional evidence that C. merolae operates a CCM while lacking the structures and functions characteristic of CCMs in other organisms. To test how such a CCM could function, we created a mathematical compartmental model of a simple CCM, distinct from those we have seen previously described in detail. The results of our modeling supported the feasibility of this proposed minimal and non-canonical CCM in C. merolae . To facilitate the robust modeling of this process, we measured and incorporated physiological and enzymatic parameters into the model. Additionally, we trained a surrogate machine-learning model to emulate the mechanistic model and characterized the effects of model parameters on key outputs. This parameter exploration enabled us to identify model features that influenced whether the model met the experimentally derived criteria for functional carbon concentration and efficient energy usage. Such parameters included cytosolic pH, bicarbonate pumping cost and kinetics, cell radius, carboxylation velocity, number of thylakoid membranes, and CO 2 membrane permeability. Our exploration thus suggested that a non-canonical CCM could exist in C. merolae and illuminated the essential features generally necessary for CCMs to function.

Steensma, Anne K. [Michigan State Univ., East Lans↗
DOE OSTI2025

MMMnet: A Neural Network Surrogate for Real-Time Transport Prediction Based on the Updated Multi-Mode Model

The Multi-Mode Model (MMM) is a physics-based anomalous transport model integrated into TRANSP for predicting electron and ion thermal transport, electron and impurity particle transport, and toroidal and poloidal momentum transport. While MMM provides valuable predictive capabilities, its computational cost, although manageable for standard simulations, is too high for real-time control applications. MMMnet, a neural network-based surrogate model, is developed to address this challenge by significantly reducing computation time while maintaining high accuracy. Trained on TRANSP simulations of DIII-D discharges, MMMnet incorporates an updated version of MMM (9.0.10) with enhanced physics, including isotopic effects, plasma shaping via effective magnetic shear, unified correlation lengths for ion-scale modes, and a new physics-based model for the electromagnetic electron temperature gradient mode. A key advancement is MMMnet’s ability to predict all six transport coefficients, providing a comprehensive representation of plasma transport dynamics. MMMnet achieves a two-order-of-magnitude speed improvement while maintaining strong correlation with MMM diffusivities, making it well-suited for real-time tokamak control and scenario optimization.

DIII-D↗
NASA NTRS1990

Surrogate oracles, generalized dependency and simpler models

Software reliability models require the sequence of interfailure times from the debugging process as input. It was previously illustrated that using data from replicated debugging could greatly improve reliability predictions. However, inexpensive replication of the debugging process requires the existence of a cheap, fast error detector. Laboratory experiments can be designed around a gold version which is used as an oracle or around an n-version error detector. Unfortunately, software developers can not be expected to have an oracle or to bear the expense of n-versions. A generic technique is being investigated for approximating replicated data by using the partially debugged software as a difference detector. It is believed that the failure rate of each fault has significant dependence on the presence or absence of other faults. Thus, in order to discuss a failure rate for a known fault, the presence or absence of each of the other known faults needs to be specified. Also, in simpler models which use shorter input sequences without sacrificing accuracy are of interest. In fact, a possible gain in performance is conjectured. To investigate these propositions, NASA computers running LIC (RTI) versions are used to generate data. This data will be used to label the debugging graph associated with each version. These labeled graphs will be used to test the utility of a surrogate oracle, to analyze the dependent nature of fault failure rates and to explore the feasibility of reliability models which use the data of only the most recent failures.

Wilson, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Technologies for Advanced Reactors (Workshop Summary Report)

A workshop on artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) for advanced reactors (AR) was held October 5-6, 2021. The workshop was to be attended in-person at ANL but COVID restrictions forced the workshop to go virtual. The objectives of the workshop were to identify the most promising AI/ML opportunities for improving advanced reactor design, optimizing plant performance, and enhancing economic competitiveness and to develop an understanding of the scientific, engineering and licensing challenges facing their application. The workshop planning committee included GAIN, EPRI and NEI and members of three national laboratories (ANL, INL, and ORNL). The workshop was attended by more than 200 individuals representing academic and scientific institutions and the nuclear power industry. The definition put forth for an AI/ML system was one that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of achieving its goals. In this report AI/ML refers to next generation algorithms that include deep learning, statistical analysis and data analytics and associated scientific computing and their potential application to the design, licensing, operation and maintenance of ARs. These methods typically incorporate models built from process data and may also include data generated by simulations that represent the behavior of a system. The workshop was organized in response to the growing interest in application of AI/ML for improving the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy. Increasingly more resources are being allocated to investigating the benefits of AI/ML methods. The DOE created the Artificial Intelligence & Technology Office to promote their development. And within the Office of Nuclear Energy, resources have been allocated to explore and understand the potential benefits of AI/ML. Additionally, the national laboratories are strategically positioned with DOE computing facilities such as Summit, Perlmutter, Aurora and Frontier that support large-scale simulations, hybrid HPC models with AI surrogates, and the exploration of new types of generative models emerging from multi-model data streams and sources. The workshop was organized with members of the AR community to understand the effort and to identify the level of interest and progress in this emerging technology. The workshop discussions focused on identifying opportunities for AI/ML across diverse areas of the nuclear industry and identifying current scientific and engineering challenges for advanced reactors that might be addressed through transformational uses of AI/ML. Discussion panels focused on four high-interest technical domains for advanced reactors: design, maintenance and operations, energy storage, and materials. The results of those discussions are summarized in this report. This includes opportunities that were identified for exploiting AI techniques and methods to improve the efficacy and efficiency of reactor analysis and to improve the operation and optimization of advanced reactors. Advanced reactor developers expressed an interest in learning more about AI/ML methods and their application. This included understanding whether ML methods can provide an advantage over existing nonlinear data regression methods for collapsing high-fidelity simulation results into faster running models. A consensus emerged that AR advances planned for the next decade will benefit from the use of AI/ML tools. The need exists to understand and model complex systems across length scales and modalities. AI/ML is a tool for discovery that can yield a set of engineering principles for use by nuclear engineers, licensing bodies, and operators to solve problems in plant design, safety analyses, autonomous operation, and predictive maintenance. While AI/ML represents a new set of tools, an awareness by the nuclear community of the full potential is still in the early stages so there is a need to increase awareness. It appears that the wide-spread adoption of AI/ML tools for ARs would be facilitated by future educational workshops that describe foundational methods and capabilities and describe successful applications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-learning-enabled Bayesian inference of fuel magnetization in magnetized liner inertial fusion

Fuel magnetization in magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) experiments improves charged burn product confinement, reducing requirements on fuel areal density and pressure to achieve self-heating. By elongating the path length of 1.01 MeV tritons produced in a pure deuterium fusion plasma, magnetization enhances the probability for deuterium–tritium reactions producing 11.8-17.1 MeV neutrons. Nuclear diagnostics thus enable a sensitive probe of magnetization. Characterization of magnetization, including uncertainty quantification, is crucial for understanding the physics governing target performance in MIF platforms, such as magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at Sandia National Laboratories, Z-facility. We demonstrate a deep-learned surrogate of a physics-based model of nuclear measurements. A single model evaluation is reduced from O ( 10 – 100 ) (10–100) CPU hours on a high-performance computing cluster down to O ( 10 – 100 ) (10) ms on a laptop. This enables a Bayesian inference of magnetization, rigorously accounting for uncertainties from surrogate modeling and noisy nuclear measurements. The approach is validated by testing on synthetic data and comparing with a previous study. We analyze a series of MagLIF experiments systematically varying preheat, resulting in the first ever systematic experimental study of magnetic confinement properties of the fuel plasma as a function of fundamental inputs on any neutron-producing MIF platform. We demonstrate that magnetization decreases from B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.5 to B R ∼ 0.2 ~0.2 MG cm as laser preheat energy deposited increases from E preheat ∼ 460 ~460 J to E preheat ∼ 460 ~1.4 kJ. This trend is consistent with 2D LASNEX simulations showing Nernst advection of the magnetic field out of the hot fuel and diffusion into the target liner.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of Desalination Systems with Detailed Water Chemistry through Integration of Reaktoro in WaterTAP

Chemistry predictions are critical for an accurate estimation of performance and costs in desalination process models, which allows for the estimation of the value of new technologies and the viability of treating new water sources. Herein, we present how an implicit function formulation can be used to integrate the chemical modeling package, Reaktoro, into the techno-economic assessment and modeling platform, WaterTAP. This approach resolves the critical issues of integrating large-scale thermodynamic models and databases into equation-oriented process models while allowing more flexibility relative to previously presented surrogate-based methods. We describe how this integration into Pyomo and WaterTAP models is implemented and used through the open-source package Reaktoro-PSE . We first validate this integration approach by performing optimization on a previously presented desalination treatment train with softening and acid addition as the pretreatment steps. Then, to demonstrate the value of this approach, we extend the cost-optimization problem to include the simultaneous addition of lime and soda ash for softening, and HCl and H 2 SO 4 in the acidification steps. Finally, we were able to confirm the previously established results that were obtained by using surrogate models and demonstrate that the implicit function approach enables exploration of different feedwater compositions and a larger number of chemicals and their combinations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data driven learning of robust nonlocal models

Nonlocal models use integral operators that embed length-scales in their definition. However, the integrands in these operators are difficult to define from the data that are typically available for a given physical system, such as laboratory mechanical property tests. In contrast, molecular dynamics (MD) does not require these integrands, but it suffers from computational limitations in the length and time scales it can address. To combine the strengths of both methods and to obtain a coarse-grained, homogenized continuum model that efficiently and accurately captures materials' behavior, we propose a learning framework to extract, from MD data, an optimal nonlocal model as a surrogate for MD displacements. Our framework guarantees that the resulting model is mathematically well-posed, physically consistent, and that it generalizes well to settings that are different from the ones used during training. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated with several numerical tests for single layer graphene both in the case of perfect crystal and in the presence of thermal noise.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗