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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Estimates of the Economic Impacts of Long-Duration, Widespread Power Disruptions in Puerto Rico

A typical electricity customer in Puerto Rico experienced nearly 27 hours of power interruptions in 2023–with many customers experiencing extremely long duration outages during a single event (i.e., greater than one month). This project involved conducting state-of-the-art surveying to assess the direct costs of power outages occurring across Puerto Rico, developing customer-specific models to estimate future costs over varying outage durations, and comparing these estimates to FEMA’s Value of Unit Service for Electricity. We estimate that a territory-wide power outage may cost customers $\$1$, $\$5$ and $\$29$ billion during one-, 14-, and 30-day interruptions, respectively. However, these are lower-bound estimates because our study focused on direct economic costs and, by necessity, did not fully incorporate (1) indirect impacts to the economy; (2) costs to repair or replace damaged utility infrastructure; and (3) the broader societal consequences including increased morbidity- and mortality-related costs. The information contained in this study can be used to estimate the direct economic value of past or proposed investments in power system resilience. We conclude with a discussion of this study’s limitations and suggest additional research to improve stakeholder understanding of the impacts of power outages across Puerto Rico.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Conceptual Design of a Water Tank Critical Facility for SPARC

Critical experiments, sometimes referred to zero-power reactors, are crucial tools in developing and validating nuclear physics predictions and thus an indispensable capability to ensure criticality safety during all parts of the nuclear fuel cycle and in reducing uncertainties in reactor physics predictions toward optimizing nuclear energy production. The System Physics Advanced Reactor Facility (SPARC) project was recently initiated to enable large-scale criticality experiments using a horizontal split table machine well suited toward solid core materials systems (fuel, moderator, reflector). The facility selected for this mission was a former pool-type research reactor building and thus also well suited toward a second critical experiment capability able to house full-size light-water reactor (LWR) fuel bundles. A conceptual design study was undertaken to review past water tank critical experiments used for LWR physics experiments and to develop an early engineering design for a new critical assembly tank (CAT). The work described here shows that a relatively simple CAT concept can be constructed and deployed in the SPARC facility to meet the urgent demands for new critical experiments on advanced LWR fuel bundles designs. The SPARC facility layout is conducive to the receipt and upending of LWR fuel bundles using existing containers and equipment from the LWR industry. The facility’s overhead crane can then be used to handle fuel bundles and place them in a vertical storage rack or in the CAT for critical experiments, both of which fit within the building’s “open basement” alongside other equipment planned for SPARC and the horizontal split table. A slightly lower area in the basement can serve as a large drain tank so that fail-safe valves drain the CAT reactor tank for safe shutdown. Neutronic configurations were determined where a 3 × 3 array of fuel bundles can be surrounded by full-length “loose rods” to adjust reactivity so that critical is achieved when the bundles are fully submerged. Viable configurations were determined for both pressurized- and boiling-water-reactor-type fuel bundles. This design concept was used to develop an early planning basis for establishing the CAT capability alongside the otherwise planned SPARC project in order to help streamline the process. Recent presidential executive orders have highlighted the need to achieve power uprates in LWR plants and the CAT capability will be a crucial element of these initiatives. Based on the work described herein, it is recommended that an earnest and timely project begin in order to establish this urgently needed capability.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers Year 1 Continuation Report

This report describes the first year of work on a project to develop the methods, tools, and data required to analyze high temperature ceramic Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) components. This first year focused on developing the methods and data required for a time-independent assessment of potential components, focusing in particular on ceramic solar receivers. The report describes both model development and testing work focused on accomplishing this goal. Our overall conclusion is that high temperature ceramic CSP components are viable and could provide a means to overcome the expected low reliability and short service life for equivalent components constructed from Ni-based superalloys. Based on the results reported here, we recommend the project continue to Phase II which will develop more sophisticated, realistic models for time-dependent failure of ceramics operating in expected CSP component conditions and develop the time-dependent ceramic test data needed to parameterize these models, using commercial SiC as a reference material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Power Generation Enhancement through Latching Control for a Sliding Magnet-Based Wave Energy Converter

A Surface-Riding Wave Energy Converter (SR-WEC) featuring a sliding magnet inside a pitching cylindrical hull is investigated as an easily deployable small power device to support small-scale marine operations. This study extends the earlier development of the system by authors to enhance power performance through the application of end spring and latching control. The inclusion of springs at the tube’s end enhances the magnet release and travel speeds as well as the average power output compared to systems without them. Further improvement of power output can also be achieved by employing optimal latching control. We introduced constant-angle and variable-angle unlatching strategies to determine optimal parameters in combination with passive and reactive power take-off (PTO) controls to assess their effectiveness. The optimized latching control and end spring can increase 60–80% more power output compared with the case without them under certain PTO damping. Additionally, we discussed the effects of limiting peak powers and associated energy leaks with latching.

Lee, Yongseok↗

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗

Business Models for Coal Plant Decommissioning

Aging coal-fired power plants are retiring across the United States. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory studied coal-fired power plant decommissioning business models to support program development for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) to engage with communities affected by power plant retirement processes. Evaluating and reducing the impact on coal-dependent communities from phasing out coal production is a crucial piece of nationwide economic development and community-directed engagement in the clean energy future. This report describes the steps in the typical coal-fired power plant decommissioning process, including analysis of the following key factors: Drivers including policy and regulations, competition with other fuels, and corporate responsibility goals; Types of coal plant decommissioning including plant retirement without full decommissioning, repurposing with fuel switch, redeveloping to utilize existing transmission, and decommissioning and repurposing with other commercial activities; and, Costs of coal plant decommissioning, including variations across regulated and deregulated markets and the funding resources to support decommissioning activities. The details described in this report relied heavily on the availability of local news reports and communications regarding plant retirements, as the researchers identified a lack of formal literature surrounding business models for coal plant decommissioning and a need for a more robust source material collection. In addition, a lack of oversight entities responsible for decommissioning processes may have led to this shortfall of information. Future research regarding coal plant decommissioning can include quantitative studies on power plant retirement drivers, procedures, and costs, qualitative assessments on affects decommissioning has on surrounding communities, investors, and other stakeholders, and identifying best practices to engage community stakeholders in the decommissioning process.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

1.5 – 1.6 μm semiconductor lasers with an asymmetric periodic optically coupled waveguide

High-power 1.5 – 1.6-μm semiconductor lasers with an asymmetric periodic optically coupled waveguide are developed and their current – voltage, light – current, and spectral characteristics are experimentally studied. The characteristics of these lasers are compared with the characteristics of traditional lasers based on double separate-confinement heterostructures. It is shown that the developed lasers have lower divergence and almost the same threshold and power characteristics as conventional lasers with Fabry – Perot resonators. The developed lasers with a cavity length of 1.6 mm and a mesa-stripe contact width of 3 μm mounted in a housing 11 mm in diameter have a power no lower than 200 mW at a pump current not exceeding 700 mA with a divergence of 25 – 35° versus 45° typical for conventional lasers. (lasers)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Intel® DOE Grid Security Enhancement Security in Power System Edge. Final Technical Report

Intel® and its partners, Schneider Electric and LiveData Utilities, were tasked by Department of Energy to explore solutions in two areas of grid security. One, secure the existing communication network and the legacy devices with minimal disruption to the infrastructure, and second, to develop capabilities in semiconductor chips such that they come with built-in security to order to provide secure communication and protection from cyberattacks with minimal effort from operation technology (OT) application developers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-Temperature Active Magnetic Bearing Development for Supercritical CO 2 Machinery Applications

Hermetic machinery utilizing gas bearings for MW-scale supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) machinery applications can have significantly lower power loss and enable improved cycle efficiency compared to conventional machinery with oil-lubricated bearings. Active magnetic bearings (AMBs) are another option anticipated to have similar power loss and load capacity to gas bearings as well as offering larger mechanical tolerances, the ability to tune properties, and high reliability due to lack of mechanical wear. AMBs also have proven commercial experience at MW-scale, though environments for high-temperature sCO 2 power cycle machinery conditions are novel. Besides the potential impact of AMBs for sCO 2 turbomachinery, the technology also offers promising benefits for steam and gas turbines for power generation, compressors and expanders for industrial heat and power, and in other oil and gas and space applications. The goals of this project were to conceptual design an AMB and perform material testing. Conceptual designs for radial and thrust AMBs were produced based on a hermetically-sealed sCO 2 machinery waste-heat recovery (WHR) application for sizing and loads, and choosing a target design temperature of 540°C useful for high-temperature sCO 2 turbines for concentrating solar power (CSP) applications. Conceptual designs were initially developed for multiple radial and thrust AMBs with spreadsheet-based calculations before selecting one of each to develop further using higher-fidelity design methods for magnetic and structural performance. It was found that the radial AMB at 540°C was feasible, but the thrust AMB needed to be limited to 315°C for high-speed operation. The decision for a reduced-temperature thrust AMB was the result of several significant conclusions: 1) Hiperco 50A, originally chosen for good magnetic performance at high temperature, had insufficient strength for high-speed operation, so it was replaced with 17-4 PH. 2) The reduced magnetic performance from 17-4 PH yielded a larger bearing size, reducing the strength margin. 3) This ultimately led to a creative design implementing a more-compact E-core topology, compared to the original (conventional) C-core, and an integral shaft-disk with Hirth joint connection. These conceptual designs are unique for the size and temperature in CO 2 , relevant for MW-scale CSP applications. Long term, high temperature test data was generated for several materials, filling a void in the current body of literature. Corrosion and magnetic performance measurements were produced for PM materials (Alnico 5-7C, Alnico 9C, and SmCo) with and without nickel-coating for environments of high-temperature CO 2 up to 550°C at atmospheric pressure and 450°C at 103 bar for up to 6,000 hours. Corrosion measurements were also produced for Hiperco 50, a SM material relevant for AMB laminations, with and without C5 coating. Comparisons were also made for 450°C and 550°C, atmospheric pressure air exposures up to 5,000 hours. Results generally show that coatings can be effective at improving oxidation resistance of the bare materials, and Alnicos generally outperformed SmCo after high-temperature exposure. In addition to technical feasibility demonstrated by the design, economic feasibility was demonstrated by updating the TEA from the reference machine, re-evaluating it with CAPEX and OPEX to reflect estimated changes from process-lubricated bearings to AMBs. AMBs were shown to be comparable in performance to process-lubricated bearings, still showing a notable improvement over conventional machinery architecture with oil-lubricated bearings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Power Outage Data Informed Resilience Assessment Framework

Catastrophic impacts to power systems due to disruptive events have increased significantly during the last decade. These events highlight the need to develop approaches to assess the resilience of power systems against extreme events. However, the availability of data that capture power system performance during and after disruptive events is scarce. This paper proposes an assessment framework to evaluate the performance aspects of the grid system during extreme outage events using the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I) data. EAGLE-I includes information related to the number of impacted customers, duration, and location of power outages in the United States. Statistical analyses were conducted to extract resilient-based outage data and derive probability distribution functions of their impact and recovery characteristics. A list of extreme events is identified based on few predetermined threshold values. Metrics from other power outage assessments were used to measure the characteristics of each event, including impact rate and duration, recovery rate and duration, and impact level. A probability distribution function is obtained for each metric. The obtained results provide a representation of national grid performance during extreme events, which can be applied as a framework to evaluate various resilience enhancement techniques.

EAGLE-I↗

Techno-economic performances and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of various ammonia production pathways including conventional, carbon-capturing, nuclear-powered, and renewable production

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is conventionally produced using fossil natural gas (NG) for hydrogen production through steam reformation and synthesis in the Haber–Bosch (HB) process. The global conventional ammonia production contributes more than 420 million tons of CO 2 emissions annually. Here, in this work, we investigated the techno-economics and well-to-plant-gate (WTG) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of conventional NG-based, carbon-capturing, nuclear-powered, and renewable ammonia production by developing an engineering process model for each. Carbon-capturing ammonia production refers to the NG-based ammonia production while capturing CO 2 and transporting it via pipelines for storage or utilization. Nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia production represents an alternative ammonia production through water electrolysis, air separation, and the HB process using carbon-free energy sources. Nuclear and renewable energy sources are assumed to be used for nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia production, respectively. Sensitivity analyses are performed for CO 2 pipeline transport distances, potential carbon capture tax credits, and clean H 2 production cost. Carbon-capturing ammonia production reduces WTG GHG emissions by 55–70% compared to conventional NG-based ammonia production methods. Nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia production almost eliminate GHG emissions since energy supply is either zero carbon or near-zero carbon. However, when $4.16–4.83 per kg is the cost assumed for clean H 2 production using state-of-the-art electrolysis technologies, the levelized costs of nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia are calculated to be $0.92–1.06 per kg NH 3 , which are approximately four times higher than the conventional NG-based ammonia production cost. The cost of CO 2 emission avoidance is estimated in the range of $266–318 per metric ton of CO 2 for nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia production. The clean H 2 production cost is the major contributor to the levelized costs of nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia production. A lower production cost, near $1 per kg H 2 , for clean H 2 is required for nuclear-powered and renewable ammonia production to be cost-competitive with conventional NG-based ammonia production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine learning assisted modeling of mixing timescale for LES/PDF of high-Karlovitz turbulent premixed combustion

Accurate modeling of mixing in the transported probability density function (PDF) method remains a great challenge, especially for turbulent premixed combustion under extreme conditions such as high Karlovitz number Ka. Recently, a power-law based mixing timescale model was developed for the large-eddy simulations (LES)/PDF modeling of high-Ka number turbulent premixed flames. It is found in this work that the power-law mixing timescale model is highly sensitive to the model parameters. It is thus critically needed to develop accurate calibration of these model parameters. The empirical specification of the model parameters developed in Zhang et. al. is found to be inadequate for accurate modeling of the mixing timescale. Here, machine learning is introduced as an attractive alternative in this work for the specification of the model parameters. A high-Ka number DNS jet flame is used as the training and validation of the machine learning models. The choices of the input parameters are discussed and compared for the machine learning models. The effect of differential molecular diffusion on mixing is examined by including the effect of the Lewis number in the training of the machine learning models. The performance of different machine learning algorithms is compared for the specification of the mixing model parameters. Overall, excellent performance of the machine learning models is observed for assisting the mixing modeling. The feasibility, interpretability, applicability, generality, and portability of using machine learning are discussed in general to provide a perspective on applying data-driven machine learning for turbulent combustion modeling studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Aggregation of Inverter-Based Resources for Modeling and Simulation

In order to conduct system dynamic studies, it is necessary to have dynamic models of both inverter and plant levels. Detailed and aggregated modeling approaches are two essential options. The detailed modeling method involves capturing the dynamic characteristics of each individual device (e.g., wind turbine or PV array), as well as their interconnections. However, as the scale of the IBR plant increases, the complexity and computation time required for detailed modeling also increase. On the other hand, aggregated modeling offers a more efficient way of representing large-scale IBRs in power system dynamic studies. This approach involves aggregating a large number of wind turbines, PV arrays, inverters, and/or plant controllers into one or a smaller number of equivalent models. In order to analyze the impact of a high-level IBR penetration in power systems, it is important to develop accurate and computationally efficient models for both the detailed and aggregated methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging hot topic in recent years to study the increasing threats of extreme events such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although many research works have been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted resilience metrics and evaluation methods makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems like what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, we first review the definitions of resilience and summarized two core concepts shared by most literature. On top of that, we conduct a thorough review of resilience metrics and develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives, i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation, to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. Existing resilience metrics are summarized and categorized using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗

ENDFtk: A robust tool for reading and writing ENDF-formatted nuclear data

ENDFtk is a recently developed C++ and Python interface to interact with ENDF-6 formatted nuclear data files. It provides a robust and complete interface, allowing the reading and writing of all formats currently part of the ENDF-6 formats manual, as well as some non-ENDF formats used by the NJOY processing code. It provides an interface that mimics the names in the ENDF-6 formats manual as well as an equivalent interface using human-readable attribute names. It is robust and powerful enogh for nuclear data experts to develop complex applications, while also simple enough to be used non-experts to retrieve and manipulate evaluated nuclear data. ENDFtk offers the ability to easily interrogate and manipulate data either in large-scale code projects or in simple Python scripts. Here, in this paper, a brief overview of the interface is given, as well as more substantial examples demonstrating plotting simple data, interacting with more complex data, and writing new data to files. ENDFtk is open source and available for download via GitHub (https://github.com/njoy/ENDFtk).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Biological Consequences of Marine Energy Development on Marine Animals

Marine energy devices harness power from attributes of ocean water to form a sustainable energy source. Knowledge gaps remain about whether marine energy systems can affect the environment, adding another threat to animal populations and habitats already under pressure from climate change and anthropogenic activities. To date, potential environmental effects have been studied under the scope of stressor–receptor interactions, where moving parts of, or emissions from, a system could harm the animals, habitats, and natural processes. While crucial for understanding effects and identifying knowledge gaps, this approach misses a holistic view of what animals may experience in the presence of marine energy systems. We look at six biological consequences and forces that drive the health of an animal population and the effects expected from marine energy development: success of early life stages; changes in competitive capabilities; growth and survival based on food availability; susceptibility to predators; injury or death; and reproductive success. We use case studies to develop this approach, focusing on a variety of marine animals. An approximate level of risk is assigned for each interaction based on the biological consequences. This work highlights the need to examine the effects of marine energy development on animal populations within their natural habitats.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

High Performance Solution for Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow

Solving the Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem is key to economically efficient and reliable power networks with a good solution potentially saving utilities tens of billions of dollars annually (according to FERC). The Grid Optimization (GO) Competition set up by ARPA-E saw several promising solutions in Challenge 1. While team GOT-TJU-OPF placed top 10 in Division 3 and 4, this was not a satisfactory performance, and the team has identified specific areas to improve and will be adding more members to round out the necessary skills and expertise needed to be more competitive. The team set out for redemption during GO Challenge 2 with an improved High-Performance Solution for Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow. The (renamed) BSI-GOT-OPF Team ended up finishing top 2 overall in the competition. The algorithms developed have potential impacts for the electric power markets that are enormous. Optimal Power Flow technology can be an enabling technology to achieve energy-efficient power grids while enhancing renewable energy penetration, among others.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗