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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Adaptive Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Distribution System Cyber Attack Defense With High Penetration of DERs

With grid modernization, smart inverters are increasingly used to execute advanced controls for distribution network reliability. However, this also increases the cyber-attack space. Here this paper focuses on the defense approaches to restore the system to normal operation circumstances in the presence of cyber-attacks. A unique deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method is developed to minimize voltage violations and reduce power losses for impacted feeders. The defense problem is reformulated as a Markov decision-making process to dynamically control DERs while minimizing load shedding. This is achieved via an improved soft actor-critic (SAC)-based DRL algorithm, which can govern DER set points and load-shedding scenarios in discrete and continuous modes via the auto-tune entropy and Gaussian policy features. Numerical comparison results on the modified IEEE 123-node system with other control approaches, such as Volt-VAR (VV), Volt-Watt (VW), and model predictive control (MPC) show that the proposed method can eliminate voltage violations and provide feasible control actions that perform complete mitigation of cyber-threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Identification of Safety Metrics for Airport Surface Operations

A large fraction of safety incidents occurs on the ground during airport surface operations. Although these incidents are mostly non-fatal with a few exceptions, they are high profile incidents that remain a source of concern for the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), major airlines, and other stakeholders of the National Airspace System (NAS). These incidents have historically been mitigated by implementing changes to regulations, policies, and procedures over time. This approach has minimized but not eliminated the risk of occurrences. It is thus important to develop integrated techniques to assess, model, and prevent these incidents by analyzing the risk and likelihood of occurrence and communicating results of the analysis to decision-making personnel who can mitigate and prevent incidents in real time. The research presented in this report builds on prior work of researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center who developed an automated framework, Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM), to enable monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. In the RTSM framework, hazards to flight are translated to safety metrics such as wake vortex encounters or loss of separation, that can be modeled and analyzed offline and also predicted and monitored in real time (online). The intent of this report is to integrate predictable incidents that occur during surface and ground operations into the safety portfolio of the RTSM project by (i) identifying suitable information sources from which ground incidents can be studied, (ii) developing safety metrics correlated with surface operations, and (iii) recommending suitable data sources that can be quantified and used for the computation of pertinent safety metrics.

ground operations↗

Energy Transition Initiative: Island Energy Snapshot - U.S. Virgin Islands (Fact Sheet)

This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) - St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. The Virgin Islands archipelago makes up the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles and the western island group of the Leeward Islands, forming the border between the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Make Energy at the Bay Area Maker Faire

Think. Make. Innovate. A festival of invention, creativity and resourcefulness that gathers makers of all kinds. Scientists are seeking to find innovative solutions to the energy challenges in the world.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Laying the groundwork for a large-scale spent nuclear fuel transportation system - 15408

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy established the Nuclear Fuels Storage and Transportation Planning Project to lay the groundwork for implementing an interim storage facility, including associated transportation activities. Efforts include the development of a system for the large-scale transport of spent nuclear fuel that will be necessary in an integrated waste management system. Progress is being made on long lead time, destination-independent aspects of the transportation infrastructure. The large-scale transportation system for spent nuclear fuel is divided into three elements: institutional, operational, and hardware. The institutional element refers to the various forms of stakeholder interaction that must occur for this type of transportation system to be successful. It includes activities like development of a national transportation plan, work on policy development for Section 180(c) of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, and identification of a preliminary suite of national transportation routes that reflect the interests of a broad cross section of stakeholders while meeting regulatory requirements. The operational element refers to the activities that must be undertaken to run a large-scale transportation system. This element is currently focused on development of a new SNF transportation routing analysis tool, study of the infrastructure near SNF storage sites that may be de-inventoried first, and development of tools for modeling transportation activities. The hardware element refers to the casks, railcars, and other items necessary to operate the system. This element currently focuses on development of railcars compliant with Association of American Railroads Standard S-2043, as well as studies related to the use of rail casks and their ancillary equipment. The Nuclear Fuels Storage and Transportation Planning Project is making significant progress in all three of these areas along the path forward to a fully operational transportation system. (authors)

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Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Kenney, Melissa A.↗

The United States after the great recession: the challenge of sustainable growth

The paper outlines the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. economic growth model, assesses its’ ability to respond to the key economic, environmental and social challenges currently facing the U.S. and proposes policies that if adopted would move the U.S. onto a more sustainable growth path. The paper provides scenarios of projected future growth trajectories, as well as recommendations for specific policies in key areas: employment, infrastructure, energy and fiscal rebalancing. To reach this goal this paper focuses on four areas for action: Increasing employment, which is the most urgent priority to accelerate recovery from the Great Recession, while addressing underlying structural issues that have led to a decade of poor economic outcomes for most citizens; Investing in the future, as the key marker of whether the United States is prepared to make farsighted decisions to improve education, build new infrastructure and increase innovation; Maximizing an increased energy endowment in a way that grows the economy, while reinforcing the trend towards reducing resource demand and reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and, Fiscal rebalancing, where the United States must insulate economic recovery from the process of fiscal reform while reducing and stabilizing debt over the long term. Finally, we argue that President Obama can re-energize America’s global leadership if he builds on a platform of domestic actions that enhance the sustainability of America’s society and economy.

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Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Understanding real uncertainties in projections is needed to support actions of decision and policy makers. In this study, two state-of-the-art regional climate models with ~ 25 km horizontal resolution forced with three different global climate models are employed to investigate the response of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system under the low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We make a step towards assessing the plausibility of rainfall change (ΔPr) patterns based on the models’ ability to realistically represent the WAM system under the historical period, and by analyzing changes in mechanisms associated with ΔPr patterns. Under global warming, experiments exhibit diverse ΔPr patterns underpinned by different combinations of mechanisms operating simultaneously. A dipole-like surface pressure change between the Sahara Desert and the Guinea Coast appears to be a differentiating factor between experiments featuring homogeneous or increased rainfall over all or a part of the Sahel from those simulating heterogeneous or reduced rainfall over the same domain. This dipole acts by modulating the amount and the extent of deepening of the monsoon flux inland, and hence the latitudinal positioning of the monsoon convective system. This process contributes to moistening the whole or central and eastern Sahel in some experiments while drying the Guinea Coast. The West African Westerly Jet (WAWJ) is responsible for strengthening and moistening the western Sahel under RCP2.6. However, the WAMJ becomes much stronger under RCP8.5 and may have contributed to the drying of the western Sahel by shifting moisture eastwards in addition to the mid-tropospheric moisture divergence through enhanced African Easterly Jet. Furthermore, for experiments expecting wetting (drying) of the Sahel, the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical easterly jet may have contributed to the projected intensification (reduction) of WAM rainfall by favoring uplift (downlift) above 600 hPa. It also emerges that the ΔPr patterns from REMO2015 experiments are likely more plausible than those from RegCM4-v7. The impacts of strong warming on the regional hydrological cycle are further investigated and we found that changes gradually intensify with the level of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of mitigating warming as recommended by the Paris agreement.

CORDEX-CORE↗

Facilitating Deployment of Community Solar PV systems on Rooftops and Vacant Land in Northeast IL - Final Report

The Cook County Community Solar project set out to unlock the potential of community solar in the Chicago region with lessons that could be applied nationally. One of the first steps was to prove out the potential market. This was done through an opportunity assessment which showed there is over 9,000 megawatts worth of site capacity available for community solar projects in Cook County – nearly enough to offset all of Cook County’s residential electricity use. The assessment also showed that almost 75% of Cook County households are not able to invest directly in solar photovoltaic systems due to a variety of issues from physical barriers such as shading, or condition of the roof, to financial barriers such as lack of roof ownership, or the up-front costs of installation. Because of these barriers, community solar is an essential part of making the benefits of renewable energy available to all of the residents of Cook County. In addition to the opportunity assessment the project team also worked with the over 200 individuals who participated in the stakeholder advisory group to develop a number of other products including: 1) an Economic & Policy Barriers Resolutions and Work Plan document which laid out best practices to address the policy barriers that existed at the time (May of 2016) 2) Value Proposition Report I and Report II which summarize the value of community solar to potential developers and subscribers, 3) The Community Solar Business Case Tool, which provides a flexible financial model that projects the costs and befits to the system developer and subscriber for a project, 4) Bill Crediting Analysis and the 5) Final Report. The Final Report contains 15 case studies which prove that community solar projects are economically feasible in Cook County with a variety of sites, solar designs, ownership and subscriber models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ML based control systems for nuclear physics experiments

The Experimental Physics Software and Computing Infrastructure (EPSCI) group at Jefferson Lab is leading the use of machine learning (ML) to enhance control systems in nuclear physics experiments. Collaborating closely with domain experts and data scientists, we have developed an ML-based control system that uses a Gaussian process to dynamically adjust the high voltage of the GlueX Central Drift Chamber. This results in stable detector performance by adapting to environmental changes, thereby reducing the offline calibration effort. Furthermore, we are developing ML-driven systems for optimizing the polarization of photon beams and polarized cryotargets. These systems will maintain the optimal microwave frequency in cryogenic targets and make real-time adjustments to diamond radiators for polarized photon sources, tasks traditionally handled by human operators. By automating these functions, we aim to optimize the polarization, reduce downtime, and minimize human error. This talk will highlight the development of reliable ML-based control systems and the policies to ensure they are both effective and trustworthy.

Jeske, Torri↗

The Importance of Inventory for Informing Waste Strategy - 20280

A waste inventory aims to present the best available information about the nature, quantity and location of radioactive wastes and materials at a facility, site or in a country. Quality inventory data is necessary for developing appropriate strategies and plans for managing radioactive wastes and materials, with high standards of protection for people and the environment. The inventory of wastes will change over time due to a wide range of technical, commercial or policy reasons, for example, if reactor lifetimes are extended, if decommissioning strategies change or if new technologies are introduced for managing waste. Inventory information can also improve as better waste characterisation data becomes available. At a facility or site level, good quality inventory data are needed to underpin decision making about the waste management options and to demonstrate compliance with the chosen treatment or disposal route. At a site and country level, knowledge of the inventory can drive the improvement to waste strategy; waste management asset and service planning; and implementation. (authors)

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The Challenges of Releasing Human Data for Analysis

The NASA Johnson Space Center s (NASA JSC) Committee for the Protection of Human Subjects (CPHS) recently approved the formation of two human data repositories: the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health Repository (LSAH-R) for clinical data and the Life Sciences Data Archive Repository (LSDA-R) for research data. The establishment of these repositories forms the foundation for the release of data and information beyond the scope for which the data was originally collected. The release of clinical and research data and information is primarily managed by two NASA groups: the Evidence Base Working Group (EBWG), consisting of members of both repositories, and the LSAH Policy Board. The goal of unifying these repositories and their processes is to provide a mutually supportive approach to handling medical and research data, to enhance the use of medical and research data to reduce risk, and to promote the understanding of space physiology, countermeasures and other mitigation strategies. Over the past year, both repositories have received over 100 data and information requests from a wide variety of requesters. The disposition of these requests has highlighted the challenges faced when attempting to make data collected on a unique set of subjects available beyond the original intent for which the data were collected. As the EBWG works through each request, many considerations must be factored into account when deciding what data can be shared and how - from the Privacy Act of 1974 and the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), to NASA s Health Information Management System (10HIMS) and Human Experimental and Research Data Records (10HERD) access requirements. Additional considerations include the presence of the data in the repositories and vetting requesters for legitimacy of their use of the data. Additionally, fair access must be ensured for intramural, as well as extramural investigators. All of this must be considered in the formulation of the charters, policies and workflows for the human data repositories at NASA.

Fitts, Mary↗

Single Stage to Orbit: Politics, Space Technology, and the Quest for Reusable Rocketry

While the glories and tragedies of the space shuttle make headlines and move the nation, the story of the shuttle forms an inseparable part of a lesser-known but no less important drama-the search for a re-useable single-stage-to-orbit rocket. Here an award-winning student of space science, Andrew J. Butrica, examines the long and tangled history of this ambitious concept, from it first glimmerings in the 1920s, when technicians dismissed it as unfeasible, to its highly expensive heyday in the midst of the Cold War, when conservative-backed government programs struggled to produce an operational flight vehicle. Butrica finds a blending of far-sighted engineering and heavy-handed politics. To the first and oldest idea-that of the reusable rocket-powered single-stage- to-orbit vehicle-planners who belonged to what President Eisenhower referred to as the military-industrial complex added experimental (" X "), "aircraft-like" capabilities and, eventually, a "faster, cheaper, smaller" managerial approach. Single Stage to Orbit traces the interplay of technology, corporate interest, and politics, a combination that well served the conservative space agenda and ultimately triumphed-not in the realization of inexpensive, reliable space transport-but in a vision of space militarization and commercialization that would appear settled United States policy in the early twenty-first century. "The 'holy grail' of the spaceship movement has been the development of a vehicle that could accomplish single stage to orbit (SSTO) flight. This study describes the evolution of this concept from the 192'0s to the present, revealing a conservative space agenda that has not yet been the subject of historical analysis. As such, it makes an important contribution to space history literature."-Roger D. Launius, The Smithsonian Institution.

Butrica, Andrew J.↗

Mean-Variance Problems for Finite Horizon Semi-Markov Decision Processes

This paper deals with a mean-variance problem for finite horizon semi-Markov decision processes. The state and action spaces are Borel spaces, while the reward function may be unbounded. The goal is to seek an optimal policy with minimal finite horizon reward variance over the set of policies with a given mean. Using the theory of N-step contraction, we give a characterization of policies with a given mean and convert the second order moment of the finite horizon reward to a mean of an infinite horizon reward/cost generated by a discrete-time Markov decision processes (MDP) with a two dimension state space and a new one-step reward/cost under suitable conditions. We then establish the optimality equation and the existence of mean-variance optimal policies by employing the existing results of discrete-time MDPs. We also provide a value iteration and a policy improvement algorithms for computing the value function and mean-variance optimal policies, respectively. In addition, a linear program and the dual program are developed for solving the mean-variance problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cognitive barriers during monitoring-based commissioning of buildings

Monitoring-based commissioning (MBCx) is a continuous building energy management process used to optimize energy performance in buildings. Although monitoring-based commissioning (MBCx) can reduce energy waste by up to 20%, many buildings still underperform due to issues such as unnoticed system faults and inefficient operational procedures. While there are technical barriers that impede the MBCx process, such as data quality, the focuses of this paper are the non-technical, behavioral and organizational, barriers that contribute to issues initiating and implementing MBCx. In particular, this paper discusses cognitive biases, which can lead to suboptimal outcomes in energy efficiency decisions, resulting in missed opportunities for energy savings. This paper provides evidence of cognitive biases in decisions during the MBCx process using qualitative data from over 40 public and private sector organizations. The results describe barriers resulting from cognitive biases, listed in descending order of occurrence, including: risk aversion, social norms, choice overload, status quo bias, information overload, professional bias, and temporal discounting. Building practitioners can use these results to better understand potential cognitive biases, in turn allowing them to establish best practices and make more informed decisions. Finally, researchers can use these results to empirically test specific decision interventions and facilitate more energy efficient decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Future Demand for EV Charging Infrastructure [Slides]

U.S. climate goals for economy-wide net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 require rapid decarbonization of the light-duty vehicle fleet and plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to become the preferred technology for achieving this end. Considerable investments in public and private EV charging infrastructure will be needed to support widespread adoption, however, guidance is lacking on when, where, and what types of chargers will be needed. In this PLMA Load Management Dialogue session, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) discuss findings from a recent quantitative assessment of the charging network requirements to support high penetrations of light-duty EVs by 2030. The study produced multiple detailed network growth trajectories at the national, state, and local levels that serve as a guidepost for future planning. In addition, an overview of NREL's publicly accessible EV infrastructure tools and data sets, designed to support planning and decision-making for EV infrastructure stakeholders, is provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Deep Learning Approach for TNC Trip Demand Prediction Considering Spatial-Temporal Features: Preprint

Ride-hailing or transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber, Lyft, DiDi Chuxing, or RideAustin, are emerging as a new and disruptive on-demand mobility service in recent years. However, the methods for developing predictive analytics to explore the nature and dynamics of TNCs across cities in the United States are still nascent due to the lack of publicly available data. Recently available public datasets on TNCs by RideAustin offer a unique opportunity to examine spatial, temporal, environmental, and special event factors associated with TNC trip demand. This study explores the use of a deep learning approach - Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) - to predict TNC trip demand at the ZIP Code level using data from Austin, Texas. The analysis includes key predictive factors such as time of day, day of week, precipitation, and temperature, indicating their corresponding associations with TNC trip demand. Results from initial analysis show that LSTM is able to predict the TNC trip demand for the upcoming hour accurately. LSTM, when compared to other prediction methods, such as historical average and instantaneous trip demand, reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) of the model predictions by 37% and 24%, respectively. This novel method offers significant potential for scaling up and/or replicability across cities where data are available for understanding TNC trip demand to inform emerging mobility system operators. Predicting trip demand can help TNC drivers make informed decisions on how to be more efficient by maximizing passenger pickups and minimizing wait times and deadheading.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: Bangladesh

Bangladesh has experienced significant economic growth and poverty reduction over the past several decades. Recognizing the central role electricity plays in economic development, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has established policies to accelerate the growth of the electric power sector. The Bangladesh power grid is transforming into one marked by declining reliance on domestic natural gas reserves and oil-based rental power plants, increasing renewable energy contribution, and shifting demand patterns. The GOB is now reconsidering its prior plans to increase the share of coal capacity in the generation mix to meet demand, shifting its focus instead to electricity imports from neighboring countries, nuclear generation, liquified natural gas imports, and domestic renewable resources such as wind and solar. However, investments in the transmission and distribution system, as well as ancillary services, have not kept pace with investments in generation resources over the past decade. Thus, Bangladesh electricity consumers still experience outages and poor power quality despite adequate installed capacity. On the demand side, population growth and industrialization have fueled steady growth in electricity consumption as efforts to expand access to electricity enabled near-universal electricity access by mid-2020. The combined changes in the mix of generation resources and patterns of electricity demand present new challenges and opportunities in operating and maintaining a reliable power system. Energy storage has the potential to help meet these challenges and accelerate Bangladesh’s energy transition. Declining costs for some energy storage technologies make them increasingly cost-effective solutions to provide a wide range of grid services. Previous analyses of energy storage in the region have identified several potential applications for storage at the bulk system level, including energy arbitrage, ancillary services, and transmission network support. The potential for storage to meet these needs depends on many factors, including physical characteristics of the power system and the policy and regulatory environments in which these energy storage assets would operate. This report applies an Energy Storage Readiness Assessment the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed for policy makers and regulators to identify priority areas of focus as they continue to develop the appropriate suite of policies, programs, and regulations to enable storage deployment. This assessment uses a simple evaluation scheme to identify the barriers and opportunities for utility-scale energy storage within Bangladesh’s policy and regulatory environment.

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