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DOE OSTI2013

Benchmarking Non-Hardware Balance-of-System (Soft) Costs for U.S. Photovoltaic Systems, Using a Bottom-Up Approach and Installer Survey – Second Edition

This report presents results from the second U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored, bottom-up data-collection and analysis of non-hardware balance-of-system costs -- often referred to as 'business process' or 'soft' costs -- for U.S. residential and commercial photovoltaic (PV) systems. In service to DOE's SunShot Initiative, annual expenditure and labor-hour-productivity data are analyzed to benchmark 2012 soft costs related to (1) customer acquisition and system design (2) permitting, inspection, and interconnection (PII). We also include an in-depth analysis of costs related to financing, overhead, and profit. Soft costs are both a major challenge and a major opportunity for reducing PV system prices and stimulating SunShot-level PV deployment in the United States. The data and analysis in this series of benchmarking reports are a step toward the more detailed understanding of PV soft costs required to track and accelerate these price reductions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Operational Benefits of Meeting California's Energy Storage Targets

In October 2013, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) finalized procurement targets and other requirements to its jurisdictional utilities for a minimum of 1,325 MW of 'viable and cost-effective' energy storage systems by 2020. The goal of this study is to explore several aspects of grid operations in California and the Western Interconnection resulting from meeting the CPUC storage targets. We perform this analysis using a set of databases and grid simulation tools developed and implemented by the CPUC, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the California Energy Commission (CEC) for the CPUC's Long-term Procurement Plan (LTPP). The 2014 version of this database contains information about generators, storage, transmission, and electrical demand, for California in the year 2024 for both 33% and 40% renewable energy portfolios. We examine the value of various services provided by energy storage in these scenarios. Sensitivities were performed relating to the services energy storage can provide, the capacity and duration of storage devices, export limitations, and negative price floor variations. Results show that a storage portfolio, as outlined by the CPUC, can reduce curtailment and system-wide production costs for 33% and 40% renewable scenarios. A storage device that can participate in energy and ancillary service markets provides the grid with the greatest benefit; the mandated storage requirement of 1,325 MW was estimated to reduce the total cost of production by about 78 million per year in the 33% scenario and 144 million per year in the 40% scenario. Much of this value is derived from the avoided start and stop costs of thermal generators and provision of ancillary services. A device on the 2024 California grid and participating in only ancillary service markets can provide the system with over 90% of the value as the energy and ancillary service device. The analysis points to the challenge of new storage providing regulation reserve, as the added storage could provide about 75% of the regulation up requirement for all of California, which would likely greatly reduce regulation prices and potential revenue. The addition of storage in California decreases renewable curtailment, particularly in the 40% RPS case. Following previous analysis, storage has a mixed impact on emissions, generally reducing emissions, but also creating additional incentives for increased emissions from out-of-state coal generations. Overall, storage shows significant system cost savings, but analysis also points to additional challenges associated with full valuation of energy storage, including capturing the operational benefits calculated here, but also recovering additional benefits associated avoided generation, transmission, and distribution capacity, and avoided losses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular, the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Economic Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies Participating in California Electricity Markets

As the electric sector evolves and increasing amounts of variable renewable generation are installed on the system, there are greater needs for system flexibility and sufficient capacity, and greater concern for overgeneration from renewable sources not well matched in time with electric loads. Hydrogen systems have the potential to support the grid in each of these areas. However, limited information is available about the economic competitiveness of hydrogen system configurations. This paper quantifies the value for hydrogen energy storage and demand response systems to participate in select California wholesale electricity markets using 2012 data. For hydrogen systems and conventional storage systems (e.g., pumped hydro, batteries), the yearly revenues from energy, ancillary service, and capacity markets are compared to the yearly cost to establish economic competitiveness. Hydrogen systems can present a positive value proposition for current markets. Three main findings include: (1) For hydrogen systems participating in California electricity markets, producing and selling hydrogen was found to be much more valuable than producing and storing hydrogen to later produce electricity; therefore systems should focus on producing and selling hydrogen and opportunistically providing ancillary services and arbitrage. (2) Tighter integration with electricity markets generates greater revenues (i.e., systems that participate in multiple markets receive the highest revenue). (3) More storage capacity, in excess of what is required to provide diurnal shifting, does not increase competitiveness in current California wholesale energy markets. As more variable renewable generation is installed, the importance of long duration storage may become apparent in the energy price or through additional markets, but currently, there is not a sufficiently large price differential between days to generate enough revenue to offset the cost of additional storage. Future work will involve expanding to consider later year data and multiple regions to establish more generalized results.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive photovoltaic (PV) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Solar-energy cost reductions can be realized through lower PV module and balance-of-system (BOS) costs as well as improved system efficiency and reliability. Numerous combinations of PV improvements could help achieve the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) goals because of the tradeoffs among key metrics like module price, efficiency, and degradation rate as well as system price and lifetime. Using LCOE modeling based on bottom-up cost analysis, two specific pathways are mapped to exemplify the many possible approaches to module cost reductions of 29%-38% between 2015 and 2020. BOS hardware and soft cost reductions, ranging from 54%-77% of total cost reductions, are also modeled. The residential sector's high supply-chain costs, labor requirements, and customer-acquisition costs give it the greatest BOS cost-reduction opportunities, followed by the commercial sector, although opportunities are available to the utility-scale sector as well. Finally, a future scenario is considered in which very high PV penetration requires additional costs to facilitate grid integration and increased power-system flexibility--which might necessitate even lower solar LCOEs. The analysis of a pathway to 3-5 cents/kWh PV systems underscores the importance of combining robust improvements in PV module and BOS costs as well as PV system efficiency and reliability if such aggressive long-term targets are to be achieved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive concentrating solar power (CSP) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Although CSP costs continue to decline toward SunShot targets, CSP acceptance and deployment have been hindered by inexpensive photovoltaics (PV). However, a recent analysis found that thermal energy storage (TES) could increase CSP's value--based on combined operational and capacity benefits--by up to 6 cents/kWh compared to variable-generation PV, under a 40% renewable portfolio standard in California. Thus, the high grid value of CSP-TES must be considered when evaluating renewable energy options. An assessment of net system cost accounts for the difference between the costs of adding new generation and the avoided cost from displacing other resources providing the same level of energy and reliability. The net system costs of several CSP configurations are compared with the net system costs of conventional natural-gas-fired combustion-turbine (CT) and combined-cycle plants. At today's low natural gas prices and carbon emission costs, the economics suggest a peaking configuration for CSP. However, with high natural gas prices and emission costs, each of the CSP configurations compares favorably against the conventional alternatives, and systems with intermediate to high capacity factors become the preferred alternatives. Another analysis compares net system costs for three configurations of CSP versus PV with batteries and PV with CTs. Under current technology costs, the least-expensive option is a combination of PV and CTs. However, under future cost assumptions, the optimal configuration of CSP becomes the most cost-effective option.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-TIme (DROMS-RT)

To design and demonstrate DROMS-RT, a highly distributed Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-Time (DROMS-RT) power flow control to support large scale integration of distributed renewable generation into the grid. AutoGrid developed a novel control and communications platform to allow highly dispatchable demand response (DR) services in time frames suitable for providing ancillary services to the transmission grid. These services will be substantially less expensive and more efficient than other forms of ancillary services options currently available to manage the intermittency associated with large-scale renewable integration. DROMSRT successfully leveraged Automated Demand Response (ADR) by fundamentally re-thinking the architecture of the DR platform from the ground up and by developing innovative new technologies in a number of areas related to DR. DROMS-RT leveraged the low-cost, open, interoperable DR signaling technology, OpenADR, and low-cost, internet-protocol based telemetry solutions to reduce the cost of hardware. This allowed DROMS-RT to provide dynamic price signals to millions of OpenADR clients. Statistically rigorous signal processing techniques were developed to reliably detect even small load reductions in the presence of noisy baseline profiles. Novel forecasting engines based on modern online machine learning algorithms enabled accurate individualized forecasts for customer loads in the presence of dynamic pricing signals, and a real-time decision engines enabled continuous optimization and optimal dispatch of DR resources across a large portfolio of heterogeneous loads that respond at varying time-scales. Moreover, the real-time optimization conducted by the decision engine can utilize grid physics to maximize load reduction at the transmission system in addition to the distribution sites, for more efficient grid operation. Finally, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) availability of the DROMS-RT platform has reduced the cost of deployment and enable participation of small commercial and residential customers in DR who otherwise would not be able to do so.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Repository-Scale Performance Assessment Incorporating Postclosure Criticality

A key objective of the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign is to better understand the technical basis, risks, and uncertainty associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Commercial nuclear power generation in the United States has resulted in thousands of metric tons of SNF, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the DOE (Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended). Any repository licensed to dispose of SNF must meet requirements regarding the long-term performance of that repository. For an evaluation of the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration during the postclosure period. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently licensed and being used to store and transport SNF but were not designed for permanent geologic disposal. A study has been initiated to examine the potential consequences, with respect to long-term repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. The first phase (a scoping phase) consisted of developing an approach to creating the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be needed to either include or exclude criticality from a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate; this scoping phase is documented in Price et al. (2019a). In the second phase, that modeling approach was implemented and future work was identified, as documented in Price et al. (2019b). This report gives the results of a repository-scale PA examining the potential consequences of postclosure criticality, as well as the information, modeling tools, and techniques needed to incorporate the effects of postclosure criticality in the PA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Water-Related Building Moratoria on California’s Housing Crisis

California is facing a housing affordability crisis, which has been partially blamed on building moratoria enacted to address the state’s severe water shortages. This study uses data on the enactment of moratoria in California from 2010 to 2018 to examine their impact on new housing supply and prices. We find that the short-term impact of the moratoria on housing supply is small, but the effect grows over time and becomes more significant in later years, especially for locally mandated moratoria. We do not, however, find that these supply shocks have had an impact on housing prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Recycling of Dilute Deacetylation Black Liquor to Enable Efficient Recovery and Reuse of Spent Chemicals and Biomass Pretreatment Waste

Previous publications showed deacetylation/dilute alkaline pretreatment followed by mechanical refining (DMR) is an effective process for overcoming biomass recalcitrance. To successfully commercialize alkaline-based pretreatments, we pioneered a new process modification and strategy to recycle and reuse the weak black liquor (WBL) to reduce water, chemical, and energy usage while increasing the solids, sodium, acetate, sugars, and lignin contents in the weak black liquor. Our results suggest that the accumulation of both chemicals and organic matter did not reduce acetyl and lignin removal in alkaline pretreatment, resulting in comparable sugar yields in enzymatic hydrolysis. Sodium and potassium were found to be the two most important inorganic substances in the recycled weak black liquor. Moreover, the accumulated sodium and phenolic compounds did not inhibit the downstream fermentation and ethanol fermentation processes. Finally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) showed the recycling of weak black liquor could decrease the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) by approximately 5 to 15 cents per gallon of ethanol when compared to a conventional non-recycling process. solids, sodium, acetate, sugars, and lignin contents in the weak black liquor. Our results suggest that the accumulation of both chemicals and organic matter did not reduce acetyl and lignin removal in alkaline pretreatment, resulting in comparable sugar yields in enzymatic hydrolysis. Sodium and potassium were found to be the two most important inorganic substances in the recycled weak black liquor. Moreover, the accumulated sodium and phenolic compounds did not inhibit the downstream fermentation and ethanol fermentation processes. Finally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) showed the recycling of weak black liquor could decrease the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) by approximately 5 to 15 cents per gallon of ethanol when compared to a conventional non-recycling process.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid renewable energy systems: the value of storage as a function of PV-wind variability

As shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) on the electric grid increase, sources of grid flexibility will become increasingly important for maintaining the reliability and affordability of electricity supply. Lithium-ion battery energy storage has been identified as an important and cost-effective source of flexibility, both by itself and when coupled with VRE technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind. In this study, we explored the current and future value of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Using a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices, we simulated the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. Holding PV capacity and point-of-interconnection capacity constant, we modeled configurations with varying wind-to-PV capacity ratios and battery-to-PV capacity ratios. We found that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60%–80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying the Opportunity Limits of Automatic Residential Electric Load Shaping

Electric utility residential demand response programs typically reduce load a few times a year during periods of peak energy use. In the future, utilities and consumers may monetarily and environmentally benefit from continuously shaping load by alternatively encouraging or discouraging the use of electricity. One way to shape load and introduce elasticity is to broadcast forecasts of dynamic electricity prices that orchestrate electricity supply and demand in order to maximize the efficiency of conventional generation and the use of renewable resources including wind and solar energy. A binary control algorithm that influences the on and off states of end uses was developed and applied to empirical time series data to estimate price-based instantaneous opportunities for shedding and adding electric load. To overcome the limitations of traditional stochastic methods in quantifying diverse, non-Gaussian, non-stationary distributions of observed appliance behaviour, recent developments in wavelet-based analysis were applied to capture and simulate time-frequency domain behaviour. The performance of autoregressive and spectral reconstruction methods was compared, with phase reconstruction providing the best simulation ensembles. Results show spatiotemporal differences in the amount of load that can be shed and added, which suggest further investigation is warranted in estimating the benefits anticipated from the wide-scale deployment of continuous automatic residential load shaping. Empirical data and documented software code are included to assist in reproducing and extending this work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Economic Analysis of Cellulosic Ethanol Production from Sugarcane Bagasse Using a Sequential Deacetylation, Hot Water and Disk-Refining Pretreatment

A new process for conversion of sugarcane bagasse to ethanol was analyzed for production costs and energy consumption using experimental results. The process includes a sequential three-stage deacetylation, hot water, and disk-refining pretreatment and a commercial glucose-xylose fermenting S. cerevisiae strain. The simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation (SScF) step used was investigated at two solids loadings: 10% and 16% w/w. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the major operating parameters. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) varied between $4.91and $4.52/gal ethanol. The higher SScF solids loading (16%) reduced the total operating, utilities, and production costs by 9.5%, 15.6%, and 5.6%, respectively. Other important factors in determining selling price were costs for fermentation medium and enzymes (e.g., cellulases). Hence, these findings support operating at high solids and producing enzymes onsite as strategies to minimize MESP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1980

Advanced Cogeneration Technology Economic Optimization Study (ACTEOS)

The advanced cogeneration technology economic optimization study (ACTEOS) was undertaken to extend the results of the cogeneration technology alternatives study (CTAS). Cost comparisons were made between designs involving advanced cogeneration technologies and designs involving either conventional cogeneration technologies or not involving cogeneration. For the specific equipment cost and fuel price assumptions made, it was found that: (1) coal based cogeneration systems offered appreciable cost savings over the no cogeneration case, while systems using coal derived liquids offered no costs savings; and (2) the advanced cogeneration systems provided somewhat larger cost savings than the conventional systems. Among the issues considered in the study included: (1) temporal variations in steam and electric demands; (2) requirements for reliability/standby capacity; (3) availability of discrete equipment sizes; (4) regional variations in fuel and electricity prices; (5) off design system performance; and (6) separate demand and energy charges for purchased electricity.

Nanda, P.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Lows of Wheat Production in Brazil

Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.

Brazil↗