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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of Vertical Ground Motions and Their Effect on the Seismic Response of Bridges in the Near-Field: A State-of-the-Art Review

Despite the evidence from past earthquakes and several numerical investigations demonstrating the detrimental impact of vertical ground motions (VGMs) on the integrity of bridge structures, incorporating their effects into seismic assessment and design procedures has traditionally been given limited consideration. Current codes utilize rather simplistic approaches to account for the concurrent effects of vertical and horizontal motions in structural performance evaluations, potentially leading to unconservative estimates of structural demands. This paper reviews the main features of VGMs and their effect on the seismic response of bridges. The methods and empirical models available to estimate vertical motions for design purposes are discussed, and research gaps and related research needs are identified. Finally, the emerging role of physics-based ground-motion simulations, as well as their limitations, in supporting future research and informing the development of simplified design procedures is examined. The main areas of interest for future research are identified in the need to carry out systematic sensitivity studies to gain insight into the main earthquake parameters that influence key VGMs features, understand the influence of soil nonlinearities on VGMs amplitude and frequency content, inform the development of empirical models that cover a range of site conditions and source-to-site distances where current models are poorly constrained, generate arrays of motions to update coherency models to properly inform the analysis of distributed infrastructure, investigate the impulsive character of VGMs, and assess the approximations made in estimating VGMs with 1D site response analyses. Furthermore, specific focus is laid on large-magnitude earthquakes in the near-field.

Asynchronous ground motion↗
NASA NTRS1995

A similarity hypothesis for the two-point correlation tensor in a temporally evolving plane wake

The analysis demonstrated that the governing equations for the two-point velocity correlation tensor in the temporally evolving wake admit similarity solutions, which include the similarity solutions for the single-point moment as a special case. The resulting equations for the similarity solutions include two constants, beta and Re(sub sigma), that are ratios of three characteristic time scales of processes in the flow: a viscous time scale, a time scale characteristic of the spread rate of the flow, and a characteristic time scale of the mean strain rate. The values of these ratios depend on the initial conditions of the flow and are most likely measures of the coherent structures in the initial conditions. The occurrences of these constants in the governing equations for the similarity solutions indicates that these solutions, in general, will only be the same for two flows if these two constants are equal (and hence the coherent structures in the flows are related). The comparisons between the predictions of the similarity hypothesis and the data presented here and elsewhere indicate that the similarity solutions for the two-point correlation tensors provide a good approximation of the measures of those motions that are not significantly affected by the boundary conditions caused by the finite extent of real flows. Thus, the two-point similarity hypothesis provides a useful tool for both numerical and physical experimentalist that can be used to examine how the finite extent of real flows affect the evolution of the different scales of motion in the flow.

Ewing, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A viscoelastic higher-order beam finite element

A viscoelastic internal variable constitutive theory is applied to a higher-order elastic beam theory and finite element formulation. The behavior of the viscous material in the beam is approximately modeled as a Maxwell solid. The finite element formulation requires additional sets of nodal variables for each relaxation time constant needed by the Maxwell solid. Recent developments in modeling viscoelastic material behavior with strain variables that are conjugate to the elastic strain measures are combined with advances in modeling through-the-thickness stresses and strains in thick beams. The result is a viscous thick-beam finite element that possesses superior characteristics for transient analysis since its nodal viscous forces are not linearly dependent an the nodal velocities, which is the case when damping matrices are used. Instead, the nodal viscous forces are directly dependent on the material's relaxation spectrum and the history of the nodal variables through a differential form of the constitutive law for a Maxwell solid. The thick beam quasistatic analysis is explored herein as a first step towards developing more complex viscoelastic models for thick plates and shells, and for dynamic analyses. The internal variable constitutive theory is derived directly from the Boltzmann superposition theorem. The mechanical strains and the conjugate internal strains are shown to be related through a system of first-order, ordinary differential equations. The total time-dependent stress is the superposition of its elastic and viscous components. Equations of motion for the solid are derived from the virtual work principle using the total time-dependent stress. Numerical examples for the problems of relaxation, creep, and cyclic creep are carried out for a beam made from an orthotropic Maxwell solid.

Johnson, Arthur R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Toward Coupled Data Assimilation in NASA’s GEOS: Developments in the Ocean Context

The Global Modeling & Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA GSFC produces analyses and predictions of the Earth system using various configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and assimilation system. The current sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction system (GEOS-S2S) is based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice configuration of GEOS which includes the Modular Ocean Model version 5 (MOM5) run at approximately 50-km resolution and a de-coupled OI-based ocean analysis that uses an initialization of MOM5 forced by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. GMAO will soon implement an updated GEOS-S2S system that will run at 25-km resolution and adopt aspects of the hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational (H4DEnVar) system already running in the production-version atmospheric analysis system, including a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to provide initial conditions for the oceanic state. This presentation will focus on developments to sustain the GMAO's systems on longer time horizons, where more radical transformations will be required to adapt to advanced computing environments, higher resolution and more diverse model components, and new observations for the Earth system. Results will describe progress toward a version of the GEOS coupled system that will be based around the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework being developed within Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and include an updated ocean model, MOM6. Discussion will focus specifically on the use of a Unified Forward Operator (UFO) for simulating observations and the Object Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) for providing the state estimate. These features are being developed as a multi-agency effort under the auspices of the JCSDA and are being adopted in the GMAO for all its applications of coupled data assimilation including S2S, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis.

Mahajan, Rahul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient graph representation framework for chemical molecule similarity tasks

Graph data has emerged in numerous scientific domains and machine learning techniques have been widely used for analysis and learning of diverse data for prediction and decision. Machine learning techniques can readily address complex problems by leveraging their structural information. But graphs cannot be directly used for existing machine learning algorithms unless encoded as vectors. The problem of efficient representation of graphs is a substantial challenge in graph machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage framework for the representation of chemical molecule graphs based on the strengths of Graph Isomorphism Networks (GINs) and Siamese autoencoders. In the first stage, the GIN model is constructed and trained using the structural information of chemical molecule graphs. Node attributes, edge attributes, and edge indices are used as input data, while graph attributes are used as labels. The GIN model effectively captures the structural characteristics of graphs and can accurately predict graph attributes, i.e., molecular properties. It also generates Graph Embeddings, represented as vectors that encode the structural information of graphs. In the second stage, Graph Embedding vectors are further optimized for downstream similarity tasks while preserving the graph structural information. The Siamese autoencoder is constructed and trained, which reduces the dimensionality of the Graph Embedding vectors, while maximizing the preservation of structural information in the original high-dimensional vectors. The resulting low-dimensional Graph Embeddings can be effectively utilized for tasks such as approximate nearest neighbor search. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework in accurately predicting graph similarity.

Ma, Jiaji↗
NASA NTRS2003

Patterns of global gene expression in rat skeletal muscle during unloading and low-intensity ambulatory activity

Physical inactivity and unloading lead to diverse skeletal muscle alterations. Our goal was to identify the genes in skeletal muscle whose expression is most sensitive to periods of unloading/reduced physical activity and that may be involved in triggering initial responses before phenotypic changes are evident. The ability of short periods of physical activity/loading as an effective countermeasure against changes in gene expression mediated by inactivity was also tested. Affymetrix microarrays were used to compare mRNA levels in the soleus muscle under three experimental treatments (n = 20-29 rats each): 12-h hindlimb unloading (HU), 12-h HU followed by 4 h of intermittent low-intensity ambulatory and postural activity (4-h reloading), and control (with ambulatory and postural activity). Using a combination of criteria, we identified a small set of genes (approximately 1% of 8,738 genes on the array or 4% of significant expressed genes) with the most reproducible and largest responses to altered activity. Analysis revealed a coordinated regulation of transcription for a large number of key signaling proteins and transcription factors involved in protein synthesis/degradation and energy metabolism. Most (21 of 25) of the gene expression changes that were downregulated during HU returned at least to control levels during the reloading. In surprising contrast, 27 of 38 of the genes upregulated during HU remained significantly above control, but most showed trends toward reversal. This introduces a new concept that, in general, genes that are upregulated during unloading/inactivity will be more resistant to periodic reloading than those genes that are downregulated. This study reveals genes that are the most sensitive to loading/activity in rat skeletal muscle and indicates new targets that may initiate muscle alterations during inactivity.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chromosome aberrations among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero: updated analysis accounting for revised radiation doses and smoking

A previous study of peripheral blood lymphocyte translocations around age 40 among atomic-bomb survivors exposed in utero revealed no overall association with radiation dose—despite a clear association between translocations and dose among their mothers—but the data suggested an increase at doses below 100 mGy with a definite peak. That analysis of the in utero-exposed survivors did not adjust for their subsequent smoking behavior, an established cause of chromosomal aberrations, or their subsequent exposures to medical irradiation, a potential mediator. In addition, atomic-bomb survivor radiation dose estimates have subsequently been updated and refined. We therefore re-estimated the dose response using the latest DS02R1 dose estimates and adjusting for smoking as well as for city and proximal–distal location at the time of exposure to the atomic bomb. Sex of the survivor, mother’s age around the time of conception, and approximate trimester of gestation at the time of exposure were also considered as explanatory variables and modifiers. Precision of the estimated dose response was slightly lower due to greater variability near zero in the updated dose estimates, but there was little change in evidence of a low-dose increase and still no suggestion of an overall increase across the entire dose range. Adjustment for smoking behavior led to a decline in background number of translocations (the dose–response intercept), but smoking did not interact with dose overall (across the entire dose range). Adjustment for medical irradiation did not alter the association between dose and translocation frequency. Sex, mother’s age, and trimester were not associated with number of translocations, nor did they interact with dose overall. Interactions with dose in the low-dose range could not be evaluated because of numerical instability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Psilocybin: crystal structure solutions enable phase analysis of prior art and recently patented examples

Psilocybin {systematic name: 3-[2-(dimethylamino)ethyl]-1 H -indol-4-yl dihydrogen phosphate} is a zwitterionic tryptamine natural product found in numerous species of fungi known for their psychoactive properties. Following its structural elucidation and chemical synthesis in 1959, purified synthetic psilocybin has been evaluated in clinical trials and has shown promise in the treatment of various mental health disorders. In a recent process-scale crystallization investigation, three crystalline forms of psilocybin were repeatedly observed: Hydrate A, Polymorph A, and Polymorph B. The crystal structure for Hydrate A was solved previously by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. This article presents new crystal structure solutions for the two anhydrates, Polymorphs A and B, based on Rietveld refinement using laboratory and synchrotron X-ray diffraction data, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Utilizing the three solved structures, an investigation was conducted via Rietveld method (RM) based quantitative phase analysis (QPA) to estimate the contribution of the three different forms in powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) patterns provided by different sources of bulk psilocybin produced between 1963 and 2021. Over the last 57 years, each of these samples quantitatively reflect one or more of the hydrate and anhydrate polymorphs. In addition to quantitatively evaluating the composition of each sample, this article evaluates correlations between the crystal forms present, corresponding process methods, sample age, and storage conditions. Furthermore, revision is recommended on characterizations in recently granted patents that include descriptions of crystalline psilocybin inappropriately reported as a single-phase `isostructural variant.' Rietveld refinement demonstrated that the claimed material was composed of approximately 81% Polymorph A and 19% Polymorph B, both of which have been identified in historical samples. In this article, we show conclusively that all published data can be explained in terms of three well-defined forms of psilocybin and that no additional forms are needed to explain the diffraction patterns.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis and modeling of tungsten emission and net erosion in the DIII-D divertor using updated atomic data

Tungsten (W) is one of the leading candidate materials for plasma-facing components. However, its main drawback is its high radiative efficiency; if W penetrates the plasma, it can lead to core degradation or even collapse. Since eroded tungsten tends to ionize in the sheath and redeposit promptly, the net erosion flux that escapes prompt redeposition can differ significantly from the gross erosion. This work presents a modeling framework to estimate net erosion and photon emission from W coatings exposed to the lower divertor of DIII-D using the DiMES material exposure probe. The approach couples RustBCA for sputtering yields with a Monte Carlo transport code (LPTMC) that models redeposition and W emission. Computation is carried out with new atomic data, based on R-matrix and Mons calculations, leading to lower ionization probabilities and a twofold increase in net erosion estimates compared to calculations done with OPEN-ADAS atomic data. The model results are benchmarked against experimental measurements, showing quantitative agreement for erosion, although the trends in W emission are reproduced only qualitatively. The model is also used to assess whether W II emission can serve as a direct measurement of the net erosion of W in the lower divertor of DIII-D. Simulations show that this is not valid if the electron pressure is above ~120 Pa or if the toroidal length of the eroded material is smaller than the parallel-to-B distance traveled by impurity ions before steady-state conditions are reached. Finally, simulations suggest that when W is sputtered by carbon ions with high impact energies (≳300 eV) in DIII-D, W net erosion scales with W gross erosion and can be numerically approximated using W I flux alone as input.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage

The project Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The South Carolina Research Foundation and partners evaluated the feasibility of CCS in the Jurassic/ Triassic (J / TR) saline formations of the buried Mesozoic South Georgia Rift (SGR) Basin that extends from South Carolina into Georgia. The J / TR sequence, based on preliminary assessment of limited geologic and geophysical data, appears to have both the appropriate areal extent and multiple horizons to permanently and safely store CO2 The presence of several igneous rock layers within the sequence may potentially provide adequate seals to prevent upward CO2 migration into the Coastal Plain aquifer systems. Approximately 81 kilometers of 2-D seismic reflection data were collected by Bay Geophysical, Inc. to explore a portion of the SGR located in southern Georgia. The 81 kilometers were divided into two lines approximately 40.5 kilometers each, with Line 1 intersecting Georgia well GGS 3457. Line 2 intersects Line 1 at the southern portion of Line 1 to maximize the extent of coverage away from GGS-3457 (a deep well drilled in the 1980s for oil and gas exploration). This well had a set of usable logs, including gamma and neutron logs that provided promising results related to CO2 storage. Results showed sandstone with porosity values greater than 10 percent and a thickness of 120 meters. The design of the seismic shot was to extrapolate information away from the well and to better define the extent of the SGR and the necessary reservoir and caprock for a successful CO2 injection. A numerical simulation model of CO2 Injection and migration was developed based on the geology log for the GGS-3457 well. The simulation model was used to investigate the feasibility of injecting 30 million metric tons of CO2 into SGR J / TA sediments and integrity of the diabase layers as seals to prevent CO2 migration.

2-D seismic↗
NASA NTRS1993

Flow visualization study in high aspect ratio cooling channels for rocket engines

The structural integrity of high pressure liquid propellant rocket engine thrust chambers is typically maintained through regenerative cooling. The coolant flows through passages formed either by constructing the chamber liner from tubes or by milling channels in a solid liner. Recently, Carlile and Quentmeyer showed life extending advantages (by lowering hot gas wall temperatures) of milling channels with larger height to width aspect ratios (AR is greater than 4) than the traditional, approximately square cross section, passages. Further, the total coolant pressure drop in the thrust chamber could also be reduced, resulting in lower turbomachinery power requirements. High aspect ratio cooling channels could offer many benefits to designers developing new high performance engines, such as the European Vulcain engine (which uses an aspect ratio up to 9). With platelet manufacturing technology, channel aspect ratios up to 15 could be formed offering potentially greater benefits. Some issues still exist with the high aspect ratio coolant channels. In a coolant passage of circular or square cross section, strong secondary vortices develop as the fluid passes through the curved throat region. These vortices mix the fluid and bring lower temperature coolant to the hot wall. Typically, the circulation enhances the heat transfer at the hot gas wall by about 40 percent over a straight channel. The effect that increasing channel aspect ratio has on the curvature heat transfer enhancement has not been sufficiently studied. If the increase in aspect ratio degrades the secondary flow, the fluid mixing will be reduced. Analysis has shown that reduced coolant mixing will result in significantly higher wall temperatures, due to thermal stratification in the coolant, thus decreasing the benefits of the high aspect ratio geometry. A better understanding of the fundamental flow phenomena in high aspect ratio channels with curvature is needed to fully evaluate the benefits of this geometry. The fluid dynamic and conjugate heat transfer problem of high aspect ratio rocket engine coolant channels are being investigated numerically, but these efforts have been hampered by a lack of validating data. Wall temperature data is available for the conjugate problem for channels without curvature and aspect ratio = 5.0, and unheated fluid dynamic data are available for square and circular cross section channels with curvature at Reynold's numbers up to 40,000. But the effects of aspect ratio on secondary flow development have not been experimentally studied. To provide some insight into the effects of channel aspect ratio on secondary flow and to qualitatively provide anchoring for the numerical codes, a flow visualization experiment was initiated at the NASA Lewis Research Center.

Meyer, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Mantle Water Contents Beneath the Rio Grande Rift (NM, USA): FTIR Analysis of Rio Puerco and Kilbourne Hole Peridotite Xenoliths

Peridotite xenoliths from the Rio Grande Rift (RGR) are being analyzed for H (sub 2) O contents by FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) as well as for major and trace element compositions. Nine samples are from the Rio Puerco Volcanic Field (RP) which overlaps the central RGR and southeastern Colorado Plateau; seventeen samples are from Kilbourne Hole (KH) in the southern RGR. Spinel Cr# (Cr/(Cr+Al)) (0.08-0.46) and olivine Mg# (Mg/(Mg plus Fe)) (0.883-0.911) of all RGR samples fall within the olivine-spinel mantle array from [1], an indicator that peridotites are residues of partial melting. Pyroxene H (sub 2) O in KH correlate with bulk rock and pyroxene Al (sub 2) O (sub 3).The KH clinopyroxene rare earth element (REE) variations fit models of 0-13 percent fractional melting of a primitive upper mantle. Most KH peridotites have bulk-rock light REE depleted patterns, but five are enriched in light REEs consistent with metasomatism. Variation in H (sub 2) O content is unrelated to REE enrichment. Metasomatism is seen in RP pyroxenite xenoliths [2] and will be examined in the peridotites studied here. Olivine H (sub 2) O contents are low (less than or equal to 15 parts per million), and decrease from core to rim within grains. This is likely due to H loss during xenolith transport by the host magma [3]. Diffusion models of H suggest that mantle H (sub 2) O contents are still preserved in cores of KH olivine, but not RP olivine. The average H (sub 2) O content of Colorado Plateau clinopyroxene (670 parts per million) [4] is approximately 300 parts per million higher than RGR clinopyroxene (350 parts per million). This upholds the hypothesis that hydration-induced lithospheric melting occurred during flat-slab subduction of the Farallon plate [5]. Numerical models indicate hydration via slab fluids is possible beneath the plateau, approximately 600 kilometers from the paleo-trench, but less likely approximately 850 kilometers away beneath the rift [6].

Schaffer, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The early ultraviolet, optical, and radio evolution of the soft X-ray transient GRO J0422+32

We have monitored the evolution of the transient X-ray source GRO J0422+32 from approximately 2 weeks postdiscovery into its early decline phase at ultraviolet, optical, and radio wavelengths. Optical and ultraviolet spectra exhibit numerous, but relatively weak, high-excitation emission lines such as those arising from He II, N III, N V, and C IV superposed on an intrinsically blue continuum. High-resolution optical spectroscopy reveals line profiles which are double peaked, and in the case of the higher order Balmer lines, superposed on a broad absorption profile. The early outburst optical-ultraviolet continuum energy distribution is well represented by a two power-law fit with a break at approximately equal 4000 A. Radio observations with the Very Large Array (VLA) reveal a flat-spectrum source, slowly increasing in intensity at the earliest epochs observed, followed by an approximate power-law decay light curve with an index of -1. Light curves for each wavelength domain are presented and discussed. Notable are the multiple secondary outbursts seen in the optical more than 1 year postdiscovery, and spectral changes associated with secondary rises seen in the radio and UV. We find that the ultraviolet and optical characteristics of GRO J0422+32 as well as its radio evolution, are similar to other recent well-observed soft X-ray transients (also called X-ray novae) such as Cen X-4, A0620-00 (V616 Mon), and Nova Muscae 1991 (GS 1124-683), suggesting that GRO J0422+32 is also a member of that subclass of low-mass X-ray binaries. We present definitive astrometric determination of the source position, and place an upper limit of R approximately equals 20 from our analysis of the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS). Additionally, we derive distinct values for color excess from analysis of the optical (E(B-V) = 0.23) and ultraviolet (E(B-V) = 0.4) data, suggesting an intrinsic magnitude of 19-19.5 for the progenitor if it is mid-K dwarf. This leads to a likely range of 2.4-3.0 kpc for the source distance, which is consistent with our separate estimate of 2.4 +/- 0.4 kpc based on measurement of the NaD interstellar line profile. Adopting 2.4 kpc and E(B-V) = 0.23, the outburst absolute magnitude was M approximately equals 0.0, which is a typical value for this class of objects.

Shrader, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Application of New Software Technology to the Architecture of the National Cycle Program

As part of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) effort of NASA Lewis in conjunction with the United States aeropropulsion industry, a new system simulation framework, the National Cycle Program (NCP), capable of combining existing empirical engine models with new detailed component-based computational models is being developed. The software architecture of the NCP program involves a generalized object- oriented framework and a base-set of engine component models along with supporting tool kits which will support engine simulation in a distributed environment. As the models are extended to contain two and three dimensions the computing load increases rapidly and it is intended that this load be distributed across multiple work stations executing concurrently in order to get acceptably fast results. The research carried out was directed toward performance analysis of the distributed object system. More specifically, the performance of the actor-based distributed object design I created earlier was desired. To this end, the research was directed toward the design and implementation of suitable performance-analysis techniques and software to demonstrate those techniques. There were three specific results which are reported in two separate reports submitted separately as NASA Technical Memoranda. The results are: (1) Design, implementation, and testing of a performance analysis program for a set of active objects (actor based objects) which allowed the individual actors to be assigned to arbitrary processes on an arbitrary set of machines. (2) The global-balance-equation approach has the fundamental limitation that the number of equations increases exponentially with the number of actors. Hence, unlike many approximate approaches to this problem, the nearest-neighbor approach allows checking of the solution and an estimate of the error. The technique was demonstrated in a prototype analysis program as part of this research. The results of the program were checked against the global-balance solution discussed above. Late during the grant, a much better approximation was developed and this is discussed in result below. As a consequence, a proposal was submitted to continue the research by developing the new approximation including development of a complete program from the prototype. (3) The source of approximation in the nearest-neighbor algorithm is the requirement for estimating some joint probabilities from some marginal distributions. A completely ad hoc estimate was used in the prototype.

Schoeffler, James D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration Study of Converter-Interfaced Combined Heat and Power Plants

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems, as a proven technology, provide numerous benefits to the plant owner by saving electricity bill, reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and improving electricity service reliability. However, their integration into the distribution grid faces many barriers including the complexity of grid code requirements and the lack of technical expertise in commercial and small industrial plants to interface with the utility and accelerate the interconnection process. To solve these issues, this study proposes a converter-interfaced solution for CHP integration. Simulations including various fault scenarios and load flow under different grid conditions are carried out to compare technical performances of the proposed solution with directly-coupled CHP. Results show that the generator size of converter-interfaced CHP can be reduced by approximately 25% and it also provides advantageous features such as reduced stress level under fault conditions and a better dynamic stability margin. In addition, a power factor controller is designed and reactive power from CHP is dispatched in such a way that the CHP plant is compliant with power factor requirements from utilities under all operating conditions.

Converter, Combined heat and power, Distributed en↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Two-sided-Loop X-Ray Solar Coronal Jet and a Sudden Photospheric Magnetic-field Change, Both Driven by a Minifilament Eruption

Most of the commonly discussed solar coronal jets are of the type consisting of a single spire extending approximately vertically from near the solar surface into the corona. Recent research of a substantial number of events shows that eruption of a miniature filament (minifilament) drives at least many such single-spire jets, and concurrently generates a miniflare at the eruption site. A different type of coronal jet, identified in X-ray images during the Yohkoh era, are two-sided-loop jets, which extend from a central excitation location in opposite directions, along two opposite low-lying coronal loops that are more-or-less horizontal to the surface. We observe such a two-sided-loop jet from the edge of active region (AR) 12473, using data from Hinode XRT and EIS, and SDO AIA and HMI. Similar to single-spire jets, this two-sided-loop jet results from eruption of a minifilament, which accelerates to over 140 km/s before abruptly stopping upon striking overlying nearlyhorizontal magnetic field at ∼30,000 km altitude and producing the two-sided-loop jet via interchange reconnection. Analysis of EIS raster scans show that a hot brightening, consistent with a small flare, develops in the aftermath of the eruption, and that Doppler motions (∼40 km/s) occur near the jet-formation region. As with many single-spire jets, the trigger of the eruption here is apparently magnetic flux cancelation, which occurs at a rate of ∼4×10^18 Mx/hr, comparable to the rate observed in some single-spire AR jets. This example of a two-sided jet, along with numerous examples of single-spire jets, supports that essentially all coronal jets result from eruptions of minifiaments, and frequently the eruption of the minifilment is triggered by magnetic flux cancelation. (Details are in Sterling et al. 2019, ApJ, 871, 220.)

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗