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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Uncertainties in Density and Simulation Parameters for Radiographic Reconstructions Using Machine Learning

We will develop new and improved methods that will enable a fuller and more extensive use of experimental data, such as from radiographic imaging, towards better characterizing and reducing uncertainties in predictive modeling of weapons performance. We will achieve this by leveraging recent developments in the areas of computational imaging, statistical and machine learning, and reduced order modeling. Key new aspects of our approach include (a) a coupling of deep learning based density reconstruction with fast hydrodynamics simulators that will permit the development of certain guarantees on extrapolatability and bounds on certain other hydrodynamics-related para- metric uncertainties and (b) a dual approach towards better characterizing uncertainties in density reconstruction using deep learning based surrogates to accelerate Bayesian reconstructions on the one hand and using variational inference and Bayesian machine learning on the other hand.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Challenges and approaches to interpretive modeling of boundary plasma and neutral transport in a closed, pumped divertor

An experimental discharge from the DIII-D tokamak is modeled using the SOLPS-ITER code suite and compared against measurements in the pumped and relatively closed upper divertor. Uncertainties of boundary plasma simulations are identified by attempting to match code inputs to experimental conditions, including iteratively solving transport coefficients to match upstream experimental profiles using varying quantities of core particle flux, different pumping models, and various assumptions of ion thermal transport. Simulated boundary conditions for particle injection at the core interface are shown to be relevant to the plasma solution at the divertor targets, even if upstream transport is modified so that plasma profiles are comparatively similar, although seperatrix density is not held constant. When upstream plasma profiles are matched to experimental measurements by varying diffusive transport coefficients, using either poloidally symmetric or ballooning structure, the model finds a majority of injected energy being transported radially off the computational domain, in conflict with experimental radiated power measurements and heat flux measurements at the divertor target. Imposing a maximum thermal diffusivity or radially shifting the experimental separatrix location of the fitted profiles to increase power conducted to the targets by increasing the upstream electron temperature does not significantly modify this result. Including a thermalizing plenum volume in the simulation domain is shown to maintain the experimental volumetric pumping rate without knowing the neutral energy distribution incident on the pump duct a priori. By modifying transport parameters to match different assumptions for ion temperature, downstream neutral pressure changes by more than a factor of two, suggesting that attention to ion thermal transport may be a critical parameter for simulations to accurately resolve recycling and neutral transport, particularly in a closed divertor geometry. In addition to quantifying various modeling uncertainties, this work motivates both further experimental study and modeling improvements to improve predictive capabilities.

divertor↗

Data-driven surrogate modeling of hPIC ion energy-angle distributions for high-dimensional sensitivity analysis of plasma parameters' uncertainty

In this work, we present a data-driven strategy for effective construction of a surrogate model in high-dimensional parameter space for the ion energy-angle distribution (IEAD) output of hPIC simulations of plasma-surface interactions. The methodology is based on a bin-by-bin least-squares fitting of the IEAD in the parameter space. The fitting is performed in a transformed coordinate system to normalize the IEAD, and it employs sparse grids for sampling the parameter space to overcome sampling challenges in high dimensions. The surrogate model is significantly cheaper computationally than direct hPIC simulations yet maintains high fidelity to them, providing a fast emulator for hPIC simulations. Sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model is utilized to characterize the dependence of the ion impact angle and energy moments on the physical parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Verification and Validation of High Explosive Reactive Burn Models Implemented in LANL's EAP and LAP Code Base

Reactive burn models represent a significant leap in high explosive (HE) modeling capability. The first generation of engineering models of HE detonation are called programmed burn models and they are largely based on the distance between a prescribed detonation point and each zone in a simulation. There have been many advancements to programmed burn models over the years and when the assumptions upon which they are based are met, a properly tuned programmed burn model can be highly accurate but if any of their assumptions is not met, as is the case for corner turning or weakly initiated HE burn, they will give the wrong answer. Reactive burn models represent an entirely new way of modeling HE burn. They use the local conditions of a zone – e.g. temperature, pressure or density – as calculated by a hydrocode to determine if and when the zone is going to detonate and if so, how rapidly. This difference opens up an entirely new set of capabilities for HE modeling. It makes it possible to accurately and predictively model phenomena like the effect of confinement and the formation of dead zones. Reactive burn models have seen sustained development effort at LANL for at least the last decade but several recent developments make it timely to transition reactive burn models from a research topic to a production tool. The main goal of this milestone is to facilitate and accelerate the adoption of reactive burn as a commonly available modeling option, with recommendations on the resolution that will be required and uncertainties associated with their modeling choices. To achieve this, we have performed verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (UQ) assessments of AWSD and SURF/SURFplus in xRage and FLAG on a variety of different problems.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)

This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗