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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Prediction of hydration energies of adsorbates at Pt(111) and liquid water interfaces using machine learning

Aqueous phase heterogeneous catalysis is important to various industrial processes, including biomass conversion, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and electrocatalysis. Accurate calculation of solvation thermodynamic properties is essential for modeling the performance of catalysts for these processes. Explicit solvation methods employing multiscale modeling, e.g., involving density functional theory and molecular dynamics have emerged for this purpose. Although accurate, these methods are computationally intensive. This study introduces machine learning (ML) models to predict solvation thermodynamics for adsorbates on a Pt(111) surface, aiming to enhance computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. In particular, ML models are developed using a combination of molecular descriptors and fingerprints and trained on previously published water–adsorbate interaction energies, energies of solvation, and free energies of solvation of adsorbates bound to Pt(111). These models achieve root mean square error values of 0.09 eV for interaction energies, 0.04 eV for energies of solvation, and 0.06 eV for free energies of solvation, demonstrating accuracy within the standard error of multiscale modeling. Feature importance analysis reveals that hydrogen bonding, van der Waals interactions, and solvent density, together with the properties of the adsorbate, are critical factors influencing solvation thermodynamics. Furthermore, these findings suggest that ML models can provide rapid and reliable predictions of solvation properties. This approach not only reduces computational costs but also offers insights into the solvation characteristics of adsorbates at Pt(111)–water interfaces.

Adsorption↗

Bayesian model averaging for analysis of lattice field theory results

Statistical modeling is a key component in the extraction of physical results from lattice field theory calculations. Although the general models used are often strongly motivated by physics, many model variations can frequently be considered for the same lattice data. Model averaging, which amounts to a probability-weighted average over all model variations, can incorporate systematic errors associated with model choice without being overly conservative. We discuss the framework of model averaging from the perspective of Bayesian statistics, and give useful formulae and approximations for the particular case of least-squares fitting, commonly used in modeling lattice results. In addition, we frame the common problem of data subset selection (e.g. choice of minimum and maximum time separation for fitting a two-point correlation function) as a model selection problem and study model averaging as a straightforward alternative to manual selection of fit ranges. Numerical examples involving both mock and real lattice data are given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Computer Aided Modeling and Post Processing with NASTRAN Analysis

Computer aided engineering systems are invaluable tools in performing NASTRAN finite element analysis. These techniques are implemented in both the pre-processing and post-processing phases of the NASTRAN analysis. The finite element model development, or pre-processing phase, was automated with a computer aided modeling program called Supertabl, and the review and interpretation of the results of the NASTRAN analysis, or post-processing phase, was automated with a computer aided plotting program called Output Display. An intermediate program, Nasplot, which was developed in-house, has also helped to cut down on the model checkout time and reduce errors in the model. An interface has been established between the finite element computer aided engineering system and the Learjet computer aided design system whereby data can be transferred back and forth between the two. These systems have significantly improved productivity and the ability to perform NASTRAN analysis in response to product development requests.

Boroughs, R. R.↗

Error Generation in CATS-Based Agents

This research presents a methodology for generating errors from a model of nominally preferred correct operator activities, given a particular operational context, and maintaining an explicit link to the erroneous contextual information to support analyses. It uses the Crew Activity Tracking System (CATS) model as the basis for error generation. This report describes how the process works, and how it may be useful for supporting agent-based system safety analyses. The report presents results obtained by applying the error-generation process and discusses implementation issues. The research is supported by the System-Wide Accident Prevention Element of the NASA Aviation Safety Program.

Callantine, Todd↗

Simulations of tokamak edge plasma turbulent fluctuations based on a minimal 3D model

In this study, a new simulation model for tokamak boundary plasma, SOLT3D, is implemented in the BOUT++ framework. The simulation model includes a set of dynamic equations describing collisional boundary plasma and neutral gas in the tokamak scrape-off layer and divertor region. The model is verified against standard linear plasma instabilities and available nonlinear results. For L-mode like conditions, SOLT3D reproduces characteristics of boundary plasma turbulent fluctuations that are similar to published experimental data, in terms of the amplitude and spatial dependence of the fluctuations. It also reproduces realistic plasma fluxes on material surfaces and expected Bohm-like effective radial transport. Plasma fluctuations inferred from the simulations imply inevitably a significant level of intrinsic 'noise' for axisymmetric tokamak plasma transport modeling, introducing errors on the order of unity. In particular, the toroidally averaged atomic rates below 5–10 eV are strongly modified by turbulent plasma fluctuations, which should significantly affect the standard axisymmetric modeling of the tokamak edge plasma and divertor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Man-Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) v5: Augmentations, Motivations, and Directions for Aeronautics Applications

As automation and advanced technologies are introduced into transport systems ranging from the Next Generation Air Transportation System termed NextGen, to the advanced surface transportation systems as exemplified by the Intelligent Transportations Systems, to future systems designed for space exploration, there is an increased need to validly predict how the future systems will be vulnerable to error given the demands imposed by the assistive technologies. One formalized approach to study the impact of assistive technologies on the human operator in a safe and non-obtrusive manner is through the use of human performance models (HPMs). HPMs play an integral role when complex human-system designs are proposed, developed, and tested. One HPM tool termed the Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is a NASA Ames Research Center HPM software tool that has been applied to predict human-system performance in various domains since 1986. MIDAS is a dynamic, integrated HPM and simulation environment that facilitates the design, visualization, and computational evaluation of complex man-machine system concepts in simulated operational environments. The paper will discuss a range of aviation specific applications including an approach used to model human error for NASA s Aviation Safety Program, and what-if analyses to evaluate flight deck technologies for NextGen operations. This chapter will culminate by raising two challenges for the field of predictive HPMs for complex human-system designs that evaluate assistive technologies: that of (1) model transparency and (2) model validation.

Gore, Brian F.↗

Error rate information in attention allocation pilot models

The Northrop urgency decision pilot model was used in a command tracking task to compare the optimized performance of multiaxis attention allocation pilot models whose urgency functions were (1) based on tracking error alone, and (2) based on both tracking error and error rate. A matrix of system dynamics and command inputs was employed, to create both symmetric and asymmetric two axis compensatory tracking tasks. All tasks were single loop on each axis. Analysis showed that a model that allocates control attention through nonlinear urgency functions using only error information could not achieve performance of the full model whose attention shifting algorithm included both error and error rate terms. Subsequent to this analysis, tracking performance predictions for the full model were verified by piloted flight simulation. Complete model and simulation data are presented.

Faulkner, W. H.↗

Quantum simulation of second-quantized Hamiltonians in compact encoding

We describe methods for simulating general second-quantized Hamiltonians using the compact encoding, in which qubit states encode only the occupied modes in physical occupation number basis states. These methods apply to second-quantized Hamiltonians composed of a constant number of interactions, i.e., linear combinations of ladder operator monomials of fixed form. Compact encoding leads to qubit requirements that are optimal up to logarithmic factors. Here, we show how to use sparse Hamiltonian simulation methods for second-quantized Hamiltonians in compact encoding, give explicit implementations for the required oracles, and analyze the methods. We also describe several example applications including the free boson and fermion theories, the φ 4 -theory, and the massive Yukawa model, all in both equal-time and light-front quantization. Our methods provide a general-purpose tool for simulating second-quantized Hamiltonians, with optimal or near-optimal scaling with error and model parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accuracy of relative oceanic geoid computations

An error analysis based on a model which requires potential coefficients and gravity anomaly information for the computation of oceanic geoidal undulations is developed. The rigorous models are presented and abandoned owing to the numerical difficulties associated with them. An approximate error model is developed in the frequency domain through which an idea is obtained as to the size and behavior of the errors involved. The use of the method is demonstrated by obtaining data requirements for the realization of a 10-cm relative oceanic geoid. Various data sets could result in the desired accuracy. One such set, indicative of the strictness of the requirements, involves gravity profile spacings of approximately 3 km with observational noise not exceeding 0.5 mGal inside detailed data caps of 30 deg and potential coefficients of prescribed accuracy available to degree and order 70.

Christodoulidis, D. C.↗

Static shape control for flexible structures

An integrated methodology is described for defining static shape control laws for large flexible structures. The techniques include modeling, identifying and estimating the control laws of distributed systems characterized in terms of infinite dimensional state and parameter spaces. The models are expressed as interconnected elliptic partial differential equations governing a range of static loads, with the capability of analyzing electromagnetic fields around antenna systems. A second-order analysis is carried out for statistical errors, and model parameters are determined by maximizing an appropriate defined likelihood functional which adjusts the model to observational data. The parameter estimates are derived from the conditional mean of the observational data, resulting in a least squares superposition of shape functions obtained from the structural model.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗

Integrated analysis of error detection and recovery

An integrated modeling and analysis of error detection and recovery is presented. When fault latency and/or error latency exist, the system may suffer from multiple faults or error propagations which seriously deteriorate the fault-tolerant capability. Several detection models that enable analysis of the effect of detection mechanisms on the subsequent error handling operations and the overall system reliability were developed. Following detection of the faulty unit and reconfiguration of the system, the contaminated processes or tasks have to be recovered. The strategies of error recovery employed depend on the detection mechanisms and the available redundancy. Several recovery methods including the rollback recovery are considered. The recovery overhead is evaluated as an index of the capabilities of the detection and reconfiguration mechanisms.

Shin, K. G.↗

Viking satellite orbit determination

During the summer of 1976, the two Viking spacecraft, each consisting of an orbiter-lander combination, were inserted into orbit about Mars. The paper describes the experiences of the Viking Satellite Orbit Determination Team in determining Mars centered ephemerides of the orbiters and positions of the landers from the two-way Doppler and range data, and synthesizes the different phases of the navigation plan which involves pre-flight modeling and error analysis for all Viking navigation functions from launch through landing. The problem of initial orbit convergence is solved by using DPODP's (Double Precision Orbit Determination Program) square-root batch data filter, and gravity models for both Viking I and Viking II were produced from the combination of short arc estimates. The importance of synchronous Viking orbits (with the rotational period of Mars) is stressed and future extended missions of the spacecraft are outlined.

Hildebrand, C. E.↗

Markov chains for testing redundant software

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

White, Allan L.↗

Polarization Decomposition and Temperature Bias Resolution for SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Retrieval Using Time Series Brightness Temperature Observations

In passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, the tau-omega (τ-ω) model has often been used to provide soil moisture estimates at a spatial scale representative of the satellite footprint dimensions. For modeling simplicity, model parameters such as the single scattering albedo (ω) and vegetation opacity (τ) that go into the geophysical inversion process are often assumed to be independent of polarizations. Although this absence of polarization dependence can often be justified in special cases as in low-frequency remote sensing or under dense vegetation conditions, it is not a robust assumption in general. Additional model parameterization errors arising from this assumption are possible, leading to degradation in soil moisture estimation accuracy. In this paper, we propose a time series approach to try to resolve the polarization dependence of several τ-ω model parameters as well as the temperature bias arising from the ancillary temperature data. The Version 4 of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 1B brightness temperature time series observations were used to illustrate the mechanics of this approach, with an emphasis on a comparison between resulting satellite soil moisture retrievals and in situ data collected at several core validation sites. It was found that this time series approach resulted in significant reduction of the dry bias exhibited in the current SMAP passive soil moisture data products, while retaining the same performance in other metrics of the current baseline passive soil moisture retrieval algorithm.

time series↗

Evaluating Cloud Feedback Components in Observations and Their Representation in Climate Models

This study quantifies the contribution of individual cloud feedbacks to the total short-term cloud feedback in satellite observations over the period 2002–2014 and evaluates how they are represented in climate models. The observed positive total cloud feedback is primarily due to positive high-cloud altitude, extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth, and land cloud amount feedbacks partially offset by negative tropical marine low-cloud feedback. Seventeen models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are analyzed. The models generally reproduce the observed moderate positive short-term cloud feedback. However, compared to satellite estimates, the models are systematically high-biased in tropical marine low-cloud and land cloud amount feedbacks and systematically low-biased in high-cloud altitude and extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth feedbacks. Errors in modeled short-term cloud feedback components identified in this analysis highlight the need for improvements in model simulations of the response of high clouds and tropical marine low clouds. Our results suggest that skill in simulating interannual cloud feedback components may not indicate skill in simulating long-term cloud feedback components.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗