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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOLCE: A Model-Based Probabilistic Diffusion Framework for Limited-Angle CT Reconstruction

Limited-Angle Computed Tomography (LACT) is a non-destructive evaluation technique used in a variety of applications ranging from security to medicine. The limited angle coverage in LACT is often a dominant source of severe artifacts in the reconstructed images, making it a challenging inverse problem. We present DOLCE, a new deep model-based framework for LACT that uses a conditional diffusion model as an image prior. Diffusion models are a recent class of deep generative models that are relatively easy to train due to their implementation as image denoisers. DOLCE can form high-quality images from severely under-sampled data by integrating data-consistency updates with the sampling updates of a diffusion model, which is conditioned on the transformed limited-angle data. We show through extensive experimentation on several challenging real LACT datasets that, the same pre-trained DOLCE model achieves the SOTA performance on drastically different types of images. Additionally, we show that, unlike standard LACT reconstruction methods, DOLCE naturally enables the quantification of the reconstruction uncertainty by generating multiple samples consistent with the measured data.

Kim, Hyojin↗

Opacity on NIF: Anchor 2 Iron (Level 2 Milestone 7118 Report)

In FY2020 we fulfilled the exit criteria of milestone 7118. We fielded iron opacity experiments at higher densities and temperatures approaching anchor 2 conditions and made good progress on overcoming the problems that we found. This report describes in detail the progress that has been made. We presented the results in a LANL seminar on August 10 and we gave two talks on our results to the National Opacity Workshop Series, one on July 9 and the other on September 14. Before discussing the anchor 2 measurements, we present an update of the NIF anchor 1 data. We did a new analysis of the anchor 1 data and compared the results to a series of calculations using the LANL ATOMIC code. Figures 1 and 2 compare the data with the best-fit to calculations. This result is significantly improved over the result published in Atoms. The differences are small for the iron quasi-continuum between 8-9.5 Å and for the Mg Heα and Lyα lines. The opacities near the centers of the iron bound-bound features also match fairly well in the 9.5-12.5 Å range. However, the opacity windows between the large iron bound-bound features are deeper in the Atomic predictions than the measurement. Furthermore, large discrepancies exist for the Mg He β, γ, and δ lines and for the short-wavelength quasicontinuum. The experiment and analysis refinements described below have set the stage for unraveling these discrepancies. Specifically, we can repeat the Anchor 1 experiments using improved backlighter, hohlraum, and spectrometers to obtain reduced backgrounds and better spectral resolution. Exploiting the AlMg calibration experiments and repeating the Anchor 1 measurements multiple times will enable formal and rigorous uncertainty determination. This well-defined path gives us confidence that high quality opacity data can be obtained on NIF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis with the ORIGEN Module of PNAR Spent Fuel Measurements for Nuclear Safeguards Applications

This report documents the analysis of the Passive Neutron Albedo Reactivity (PNAR) measurements for 23 boiling water reactor spent fuel assemblies that were performed in Finland under Action Sheet 65, which is an international collaboration on spent fuel safeguards verification methods in the context of the Finnish spent fuel encapsulation/repository system. PNAR measures the passive neutron and gamma emission rates from each of the spent fuel assemblies like a Fork detector, and it also measures the PNAR ratio, which is expected to correlate with the net neutron multiplication of the measured fuel assembly. The analysis was performed with the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation and Depletion (ORIGEN) Data Analysis Module, which was originally developed for predicting Fork detector spent fuel measurement signals in real time and has been integrated into the Integrated Review and Analysis Package developed by Euratom and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The module includes the ORIGEN burnup analysis code and integrates detector response functions pregenerated using the MCNP Monte Carlo transport code to predict the detector signals in several seconds per assembly. In this study, new response functions specific to the analyzed PNAR measurements were generated for the ORIGEN Module. The study also analyzes the impact of using detailed fuel design and operation information vs. standard safeguards information on the results calculated with the ORIGEN Module. Using detailed information reduced the standard deviation of the relative differences between calculated and measured neutron count rates among the 23 assemblies from ~10% to ~4%. The results obtained using standard safeguards information for these PNAR measurements were similar to those obtained for the Fork detector. A clear trend was found between the calculated net neutron multiplications and the measured PNAR ratios of the 23 assemblies. An uncertainty assessment of the calculations was also performed to estimate the potential impact of the accuracy and the completeness of declaration information on the calculated results for the count rates and net neutron multiplications. The ORIGEN Module predictions for PNAR signals and net neutron multiplication are expected to directly support the safeguards inspectors’ efforts to verify operator declarations of a spent fuel assembly in real time in safeguards practices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Chimera Events for Performance Studies of the MicroBooNE Deep Learning-based Low Energy Excess Search

MicroBooNE is a short baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab that employs Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology. One of its target measurements is to investigate the nature of the excess of low energy electron-like events observed by MiniBooNE. This measurement will require an excellent understanding of systematic uncertainties, obtained through testing the performance of reconstruction algorithms on samples with known properties. However, using exclusively Monte Carlo events for this task is limited by how well the discrepancies between simulation and data are understood. An alternative is to test against samples of “chimera” events, which are made up of separate single-particle components from data that are combined to create neutrino-like events. These chimera events can be used to help quantify systematic uncertainties. This note covers the performance and status of creating and using chimera events that match a target neutrino topology in MicroBooNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Direct Radiative Effects of Aerosols at the ARM SGP and TWP Sites (DOE ASR Final Report)

This effort has examined and quantified aerosol direct radiative effects (DREs) and associated uncertainties at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites under both clear and all sky conditions by taking advantage of the advanced ARM long-term comprehensive measurements of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and atmospheric state. This effort has filled the knowledge gap in aerosol DREs at the SGP and TWP under all sky conditions based on the ARM observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NitroNet: Smart System to Quantify Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Agricultural croplands are the largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the third most important greenhouse gas. Emissions are characterized by “hot spots” and “hot moments”, meaning emissions are highly heterogeneous in space and time. Emissions are driven by nitrification and denitrification processes which depend upon complex factors such as soil characteristics (type, compaction, pH, moisture, topography), management practices (fertilizer type and application, tillage, crop type, field history, irrigation), biogeochemistry (organic carbon, microbial composition), and meteorology (precipitation, temperature, and wind). For these reasons, quantifying cropland emissions by either measurements or modeling is extremely challenging with large uncertainties.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The SPT-3G+ Experiment on the South Pole Telescope

Observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) offer an unparalleled opportunity to advance our understanding of fundamental physics. SPT-3G+ is an upgraded receiver for the arcminute-resolution South Pole Telescope (SPT) that plans to deploy in late 2028. SPT-3G+ will increase the CMB mapping speed of SPT by nearly an order of magnitude over the currently installed SPT-3G receiver. SPT-3G+ will have ~24,000 transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers in two frequency bands with center frequencies at 95 GHz and 150 GHz that will be read out with microwave multiplexing. SPT-3G+ will measure the CMB lensing spectrum and galaxy clusters to constrain the growth of structure, dark matter, and dark energy. SPT-3G+ will also reach critical thresholds on inflationary constraints by combining data with BICEP/Keck, forming the South Pole Observatory (SPO). BICEP/Keck has deep degree-angular scale measurements but is currently delensing-limited, while SPT-3G+ will provide deep lensing measurements. Forecasts show that SPO will reach an uncertainty on the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ of $\sigma(r) \sim 1.2\times 10^{-3}$ by 2034. A detection at these levels would provide evidence of inflation and probe new physics at grand unified theory energy scales, while no detection would exclude large classes of models and shift the scientific paradigm describing the early universe. I will give an overview of SPT-3G+ including its design and current status.

Simon, Sara M. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000006683584)↗

Predicting peak day and peak hour of electricity demand with ensemble machine learning

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and reducing uncertainties associated with the forecast in probabilistic risk measures for dispatch decision-making. In this study, we develop a supervised machine learning approach to generate 1) the probability of the next operation day containing the peak hour of the month and 2) the probability of an hour to be the peak hour of the day. Guidance is provided on preparation and augmentation of data as well as selection of machine learning models and decision-making thresholds. The proposed approach is applied to the Duke Energy Progress system and successfully captures 69 peak days out of 72 testing months with a 3% exceedance probability threshold. On 90% of the peak days, the actual peak hour is among the 2 h with the highest probabilities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Validation of the SCALE/Polaris-PARCS Code Procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-Group Library: Pressurized Water Reactor

This study was conducted to validate the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library for pressurized water reactor (PWR) analysis, by comparing simulated results with measured data for critical experiments and operating PWRs. Uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure for PWR analysis were evaluated in the validation for the PWR key nuclear parameters such as critical boron concentrations, reactivity, control bank work, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Accuracy, Bias, and Improvements in Mapping Crops and Cropland across the United States Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) is a 30 m resolution crop-specific land cover map produced annually to assess crops and cropland area across the conterminous United States. Despite its prominent use and value for monitoring agricultural land use/land cover (LULC), there remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the CDLs’ performance, particularly in applications measuring LULC at national scales, within aggregated classes, or changes across years. To fill this gap, we used state- and land cover class-specific accuracy statistics from the USDA from 2008 to 2016 to comprehensively characterize the performance of the CDL across space and time. We estimated nationwide area-weighted accuracies for the CDL for specific crops as well as for the aggregated classes of cropland and non-cropland. We also derived and reported new metrics of superclass accuracy and within-domain error rates, which help to quantify and differentiate the efficacy of mapping aggregated land use classes (e.g., cropland) among constituent subclasses (i.e., specific crops). We show that aggregate classes embody drastically higher accuracies, such that the CDL correctly identifies cropland from the user’s perspective 97% of the time or greater for all years since nationwide coverage began in 2008. We also quantified the mapping biases of specific crops throughout time and used these data to generate independent bias-adjusted crop area estimates, which may complement other USDA survey- and census-based crop statistics. Our overall findings demonstrate that the CDLs provide highly accurate annual measures of crops and cropland areas, and when used appropriately, are an indispensable tool for monitoring changes to agricultural landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Accuracy of the ALMA Flux Calibration in the Time Domain and across Spectral Windows

A diverse array of science goals requires accurate flux calibration of observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter array (ALMA); however, this goal remains challenging due to the stochastic time-variability of the “grid” quasars ALMA uses for calibration. In this work, we use 343.5 GHz (Band 7) ALMA Atacama Compact Array observations of four bright and stable young stellar objects over seven epochs to independently assess the accuracy of the ALMA flux calibration and to refine the relative calibration across epochs. The use of these four extra calibrators allows us to achieve an unprecedented relative ALMA calibration accuracy of ~3%. On the other hand, when the observatory calibrator catalog is not up to date, the Band 7 data calibrated by the ALMA pipeline may have a flux calibration poorer than the nominal 10%, which can be exacerbated by weather-related phase decorrelation when self-calibration of the science target is either not possible or not attempted. We also uncover a relative flux calibration uncertainty between spectral windows of 0.8%, implying that measuring spectral indices within a single ALMA band is likely highly uncertain. We thus recommend various methods for science goals requiring high flux accuracy and robust calibration, in particular, the observation of additional calibrators combined with a relative calibration strategy, and observation of solar system objects for high absolute accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Progress in the validation of rotor aerodynamic codes using field data

Within the framework of the fourth phase of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 29, a large comparison exercise between measurements and aeroelastic simulations has been carried out featuring three simulation cases in axial, sheared and yawed inflow conditions. Results were obtained from more than 19 simulation tools originating from 12 institutes, ranging in fidelity from blade element momentum (BEM) to computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and compared to state-of-the-art field measurements from the 2 MW DanAero turbine. More than 15 different variable types ranging from lifting-line variables to blade surface pressures, loads and velocities have been compared for the different conditions, resulting in over 250 comparison plots. The result is a unique insight into the current status and accuracy of rotor aerodynamic modeling. For axial flow conditions, a good agreement was found between the various code types, where a dedicated grid sensitivity study was necessary for the CFD simulations. However, compared to wind tunnel experiments on rotors featuring controlled conditions, it remains a challenge to achieve good agreement of absolute levels between simulations and measurements in the field. For sheared inflow conditions, uncertainties due to rotational and unsteady effects on airfoil data result in the CFD predictions standing out above the codes that need input of sectional airfoil data. However, it was demonstrated that using CFD-synthesized airfoil data is an effective means to bypass this shortcoming. For yawed flow conditions, it was observed that modeling of the skewed wake effect is still problematic for BEM codes where CFD and free vortex wake codes inherently model the underlying physics correctly. The next step is a comparison in turbulent inflow conditions, which is featured in IEA Wind Task 47. Doing this analysis in cooperation under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Program (TCP) has led to many mutual benefits for the participants. The large size of the consortium brought ample manpower for the analysis where the learning process by combining several complementary experiences and modeling techniques gave valuable insights that could not be found when the analysis is carried out individually.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bubble Chamber Detectors with Light Nuclear Targets: A Snowmass 2021 White Paper

Neutrino cross sections are a critical ingredient in experiments that depend on neutrino scattering to reconstruct event kinematics and infer neutrino characteristics, like NOvA and T2K. An opportunity exists to reduce the 5-10% broad uncertainty on neutrino cross sections by producing more measurements of neutrino scattering from light nuclear targets at the relevant energies. Bubble chambers with light nuclear targets would be ideal for these measurements but the most recent device designed for use with an accelerator neutrino source is at least fifty years old. A new bubble chamber with light nuclear targets could be designed by observing how the technology has progressed for use in dark matter experiments and producing smaller modular devices that use more efficient cooling systems. A smaller modular device could also be designed for deployment to all functioning neutrino beams, but an investigation of the proper operating characteristics is necessary to adapt newer detectors to the structure of contemporary neutrino beams.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evaluation of Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor Operation Data for Critical Benchmark Creation [Abstract]

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) was a research reactor designed and built at ORNL in 1961. The critical assembly was using a highly enriched uranium and molybdenum alloy as the fuel, and it could be operated in steady-state or burst modes. The reactor was used for about 25 years to produce a lot of publications related to dosimetry, radiobiology and radiation detectors testing before its decommissioning in 1987. In recent years, the idea of using legacy operation data from the to create a valuable critical accident alarm system shielding benchmark arose. Such a benchmark has been submitted to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP) Technical Review Group for a potential inclusion in the 2022 version of the handbook. Another way to use the valuable data from the operation of the HPRR is to evaluate the feasibility of the creation of a subcritical or prompt supercritical benchmark for inclusion in the ICSBEP or the International Reactor Physics Experiments Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) handbooks. To initiate a burst, the HPRR had to be operated in a slightly subcritical state for a few minutes. Then, the insertion of the burst control rod would greatly increase the reactivity of the system and start the burst. No critical configuration of the HPRR critical assembly could be located. The only information available concerns stable subcritical and prompt supercritical states, found in a burst experiments’ logbook. In the recovered logbook pages, information about 8 different bursts is available. The information includes the rods positions before and during a burst, the recorded subcritical reactor period and reactivity, and the burst fission yield derived from the temperature elevation sulfur pellet irradiation analysis. By using the HPRR logbook information and the as-built drawings of the critical assembly, a highly detailed model of the HPRR was created with SCALE 6.2.4/KENO-VI. Eight KENO-VI models were created to replicate the sub-critical assembly configurations described in the eight bursts from the recovered logbook pages. KENO-VI calculates k eff and it can be linked to a reactivity value in cents by using the delayed neutron fraction B eff , also calculated by KENO-VI. KENO-VI can also be used to model the prompt super-critical configurations of the HPRR and to assess the similarity with the burst measurements by comparing the calculated k eff and the measured fission yields between each burst. Unfortunately, high uncertainty exist and the obtained discrepancies between experiments and calculation results are high, compromising the creation of a valuable critical benchmark from HPRR operation data. The reasons of the discrepancies and potential ways to solve them are explored.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Measurement of the Eta Meson Radiative Decay Width via the Primakoff Effect

The ? meson is an interesting tool to study fundamental symmetries in Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). In particular, its radiative decay width, ? p? Ñ ??q, is an important quantity that can be predicted in the framework of Chiral Perturbation Theory. A precision measurement of this quantity would provide critical inputs to understanding the mixing of the ? and ?1 mesons and extracting constants with wide-ranging applications in low-energy QCD. This decay width has been measured in the past using two different experimental techniques. The more popular technique utilized e`e´ collisions to produce ? mesons through electromagnetic interactions. Today, the Particle Data Group (PDG) averages the results of five such experiments to obtain their currently-accepted value of the decay width as: 0.515?0.018 keV. However the first measurement of this quantity was obtained from a fixed-target experiment that measured the cross section for photoproduction of ? mesons on a nuclear target via the Primakoff effect. Their result of 0.324?0.046 keV shows strong tension with the average of the collider measurements, motivating a new, high precision measurement using the Primakoff method. For this purpose, the PrimEx-eta experiment was conducted in Hall D of the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab or JLab). The data is currently being analyzed to measure the differential cross section for the photoproduction of ? mesons on a liquid, 4He target. Preliminary results obtained from the analysis of the first phase of the PrimEx-eta experiment show reasonable agreement with the currently-accepted PDG value of the radiative decay width. However, as will be discussed, there are many challenges to this precision measurement which must be studied before any results can be finalized and compared with previous measurements. In parallel to the ? decay width measurement, the PrimEx-eta experiment measured the total cross section for the fundamental, Quantum Electrodynamics (QED) process of Compton scattering from the atomic electrons inside the target. The results obtained from this measurement are in strong agreement with the next-to-leading order QED calculations, and the total combined uncertainties are below 3% for incident photon energies between 7-10 GeV. In addition to providing the first precision measurement of the total Compton scattering cross section within this beam energy range, this measurement verifies the capability of the PrimEx-eta experimental setup to perform absolute cross section measurements at forward angles, and serves as a reference process for the calibration of systematic uncertainties.

Smith, Andrew↗