Covert Cognizance: A Novel Predictive Modeling Paradigm for Securing Unattended High-Valued Systems
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The Defense Resilience Technical Assistance (TA) project, a collaboration between the DOE Grid Deployment Office and the DoD, aims to enhance energy infrastructure at military installations and utilities and the surrounding community. It focuses on improving energy system performance, addressing power infrastructure inadequacies, enhancing power quality, reducing cyber sabotage impacts, and strengthening digital supply chains. Defense Resilience Technical Assistance Options - Initial Overview. Intend to tailor to the pilot installation.
Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and development of large language models (LLMs) present the opportunity to develop a new generation of power systems applications. In contrast with early power system AI applications based on structured numerical data, LLMs offer unique capabilities to perform logical reasoning using text documents, unstructured data, and application programming interface (API) calls to computational software. This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap between power systems engineers and LLM developers through a crosscutting explanation of use cases, characteristics, requirements, practical considerations from the perspectives of both LLM capabilities and industry needs. Specific focus is given to applications that can be realistically deployed by electric utilities. After introducing the architecture of LLMs and unique challenges of the power systems domain, this paper proposes twenty representative LLM applications grouped into categories of 1) power system operations, 2) asset management, 3) system planning and analytics, and 4) energy management and protection systems. Five use cases are presented within each category with descriptions of the motivation, objectives, approaches, example inputs / outputs, and benefits of each use case.
The integration of power electronics-based interfaces presents challenges due to the absence of detailed models and the high computational complexity. Generic models used in system studies lack accuracy in capturing converter dynamics. This paper proposes a data-driven approach developed from experimental setup data. This approach enhances accuracy in photovoltaic inverter modeling. We used two types of PV inverters in the experiment. The recorded experimental data undergo processing through a machine learning model. Results from the model trained through machine learning is also presented.
A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.
Computational materials discovery has been successful in predicting novel, technologically relevant materials. However, it has remained focused almost exclusively on finding ground-state structures. Now that the lower-hanging fruit has been found in many fields of application, materials exploration is moving toward metastable materials: higher energy phases that are stable at practical time scales. Because of the challenges associated with predicting which phases are realistic, this class of materials has remained relatively unexplored, despite numerous examples of metastable structures with unmatched properties (e.g., diamond). This article highlights recent advances in developing computational and theoretical methods for predicting useful and realizable metastable materials. Topics discussed cover (1) the latest strategies for identifying potential metastable phases, (2) methodologies for assessing which phases can be realized experimentally, and (3) current approaches to estimate the lifetime of metastable materials.
We report high quality energy systems information is a crucial input to energy systems research, modeling, and decision-making. Unfortunately, actionable information about energy systems is often of limited availability, incomplete, or only accessible for a substantial fee or through a non-disclosure agreement. Recently, remotely sensed data (e.g., satellite imagery, aerial photography) have emerged as a potentially rich source of energy systems information. However, the use of these data is frequently challenged by its sheer volume and complexity, precluding manual analysis. Recent breakthroughs in machine learning have enabled automated and rapid extraction of useful information from remotely sensed data, facilitating large-scale acquisition of critical energy system variables. Here we present a systematic review of the literature on this emerging topic, providing an in-depth survey and review of papers published within the past two decades. We first taxonomize the existing literature into ten major areas, spanning the energy value chain. Within each research area, we distill and critically discuss major features that are relevant to energy researchers, including, for example, key challenges regarding the accessibility and reliability of the methods. We then synthesize our findings to identify limitations and trends in the literature as a whole, and discuss opportunities for innovation. These include the opportunity to extend the methods beyond electricity to broader energy systems and wider geographic areas; and the ability to expand the use of these methods in research and decision making as satellite data become cheaper and easier to access. We also find that there are persistent challenges: limited standardization and rigor of performance assessments; limited sharing of code, which would improve replicability; and a limited consideration of the ethics and privacy of data.
The study discusses a learning approach for analyzing cyber-events in reactor systems using integrated hardware and personal computer simulator models. Key points include the rise in cyber-attacks and their sophistication in industrial control systems (ICS), the necessity for awareness, understanding, resource allocation, and preparation to combat these threats, and the digital transformation of old and new nuclear plants, increasing their exposure to cyber threats. It highlights the cyber vulnerabilities of advanced reactor systems, which rely on digital instrumentation and control for operations and safety functions, making them susceptible to cyber-attacks. The approach involves demonstrating reactor system plant ICS cyber-attacks under various operational conditions utilizing tools like simulator models and hardware-based kits. A strategic solution approach tailored to critical infrastructure is emphasized, along with community engagement for public and government support, adopting effective learning approaches, and the preparation for anticipated future challenges. The presentation concludes with a call to action to address challenges, leverage opportunities, and advance through lesson learning in cybersecurity for nuclear energy systems.
In U.S. district heating (DH) systems, steam is the most common heat transport medium. Industry demand for new advanced modeling capabilities of complete steam DH systems is increasing; however, the existing models for water/steam thermodynamics are too slow for large system simulations because of computationally expensive algebraic loops that require the solution to nonlinear systems of equations. For practical applications, this work presents a novel split-medium approach that implements numerically efficient liquid water models alongside various water/steam models, breaking costly algebraic loops by decoupling mass and energy balance equations. New component models for steam DH systems are also presented. We implemented the models in the equation based Modelica language and evaluated accuracy and computing speed across multiple scales: from fundamental thermodynamic properties to complete districts featuring 10 to 200 buildings. Compared to district models with the IF97 water/steam model and equipment models from the Modelica Standard Library, the new implementation improves the scaling rate for large districts from cubic to quadratic with negligible compromise to accuracy. Additionally, for an annual simulation with 180 buildings, this translates to a computing time reduction from 33 to 1-1.5 h. These results are critically important for industry practitioners to simulate steam DH systems at large scales.
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The two paths for documenting compliance with ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 are the prescriptive path and the performance path. Beyond code programs and rating systems (for example, USGBC-LEED ) are primarily known to use a third path – the Appendix G Performance Rating Method. An update in the 2016 edition of Standard 90.1 approved the Appendix G Performance Rating System for code compliance, extending its application and allowing for greater consistency of modeling rules for code and beyond code building energy modeling. The Appendix G PRM provides rules for the development of whole building energy models of baseline and proposed models for calculating the “performance cost index target” value using the simulated energy results of the baseline and proposed models and the building performance factors published in Table 4.2.1.1 of the Standard. This report documents (1) the methodology used for development of the baseline and proposed energy models of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and U.S. Department of Energy commercial building prototypes using the Appendix G Performance Rating Method; and (2) the building performance factors that were calculated using those models.
Today’s power grid is becoming more diverse and integrated with high-level distributed energy resources and smart control technologies that is creating a new set of grid management challenges in terms of large-scale, nonlinear, and non-convex problem modeling, complex and time-consuming computation, as well as difficult uncertainty handling. This project focused on solving a challenging multi-period security-constrained generation scheduling problem, which is of great importance for maximizing the social welfare of real-time dispatch, day-ahead market, as well as weekly planning of power systems. Our developed software explored parallel optimization algorithms for complex and realistic power system models, and develop fast, efficient, and robust grid optimization solutions on the high-performance computing platform that will enable increased grid economics, flexibility, resilience, as well as energy security in the United States.
Abstract The work function is the key surface property that determines the energy required to extract an electron from the surface of a material. This property is crucial for thermionic energy conversion, band alignment in heterostructures, and electron emission devices. This work presents a high‐throughput workflow using density functional theory (DFT) to calculate the work function and cleavage energy of 33,631 slabs (58,332 work functions) that are created from 3,716 bulk materials. The number of calculated surface properties surpasses the previously largest database by a factor of ≈27. Several surfaces with an ultra‐low (<2 eV) and ultra‐high (>7 eV) work function are identified. Specifically, the (100)‐Ba‐O surface of BaMoO 3 and the (001)‐F surface of Ag 2 F have record‐low (1.25 eV) and record‐high (9.06 eV) steady‐state work functions. Based on this database a physics‐based approach to featurize surfaces is utilized to predict the work function. The random forest model achieves a test mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.09 eV, comparable to the accuracy of DFT. This surrogate model enables rapid predictions of the work function (≈ 10 5 faster than DFT) across a vast chemical space and facilitates the discovery of material surfaces with extreme work functions for energy conversion and electronic device applications.
The accumulation of municipal solid waste (MSW) continues to rise due to burgeoning population, rapid global urbanization and economic growth, intensifying ecological concerns associated with landfills and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over the past 2 decades, global waste generation has surged by 50%, with one-third remaining uncollected and about 70% sent to landfills. This review examines the critical role of integrating emerging technologies, such as advanced sensors and artificial intelligence (AI), into end-to-end MSW management to alleviate landfill burdens. The suitability of various AI tools for different stages of MSW management is assessed, alongside the deployment of advanced sensors including hyperspectral cameras, computer vision systems, and internet of things (IoT) devices for material identification. Applications of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning for optimizing collection routes, reducing costs, and lowering emissions are highlighted. Life cycle assessment (LCA) across all stages of MSW management is also reviewed, along with future trends in leveraging generative AI, natural language processing (NLP), and agent-based AI systems to analyze waste generation patterns and public sentiment. Efficient collection and handling can be enhanced through route optimization with geographic information systems and real-time bin-level monitoring. Furthermore, sensor-embedded, real-time object detection systems paired with robotics enable material characterization and automated sorting, thereby lowering costs and diverting waste from landfills into value-added products for diverse industrial sectors including packaging, chemicals, textiles, metals and glass, transportation, and electronics industries. Without intervention, global waste is projected to reach 4.54 billion tons by 2050, contributing direct economic costs of $\$$400 billion and roughly 2.38 billion tons of CO 2 -equivalent emissions annually. This review demonstrates how AI-driven, end-to-end solutions for MSW management can mitigate economic and environmental challenges, while directly supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development (UNDP) goals related to innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), sustainable cities (SDG 11), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), and climate action (SDG 13).
This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections covering the conterminous United States (CONUS), developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Multiple Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling methods, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), with total runoff routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model, producing an ensemble of streamflow projections across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Additionally, using only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections extend to the 2060-2099 far-future period and encompass three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is designed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Rastogi et al. (2022), and Ghimire et al. (2023).
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Power systems are evolving into cyber-physical energy systems (CPES) mainly due to the integration of modern communication and Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices. CPES security evaluation is challenging since the physical and cyber layers are often not considered holistically. Existing literature focuses on only optimizing the operation of either the physical or cyber layer while ignoring the interactions between them. This paper proposes a metric, the Cyber-Physical Energy System Quantitative Security Metric (CPES-QSM), that quantifies the interaction between the cyber and physical layers across three domains: electrical, cyber-risk, and network topology. A method for incorporating the proposed cyber-metric into operational decisions is also proposed by formulating a cyber-constrained AC optimal power flow (C-ACOPF) that considers the status of all the CPES layers. The C-ACOPF considers the vulnerabilities of physical and cyber networks by incorporating factors such as voltage stability, contingencies, graph-theory, and IoT cyber risks, while using a multi-criteria decision-making technique. We note that simulation studies are conducted using standard IEEE test systems to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed metric and the C-ACOPF formulation.
We report that the hybrid kinetic-ion fluid-electron plasma model is widely used to study challenging multi-scale problems in space and laboratory plasma physics. Here, a novel conservative scheme for this model employing implicit particle-in-cell techniques is extended to arbitrary coordinate systems via curvilinear maps from logical to physical space. The scheme features a fully non-linear electromagnetic formulation with a multi-rate time advance - including sub-cycling and orbit-averaging for the kinetic ions. By careful choice of compatible particle-based kinetic-ion and mesh-based fluid-electron discretizations in curvilinear coordinates, as well as particle-mesh interpolations and implicit midpoint time advance, the scheme is proven to conserve total energy for arbitrary curvilinear meshes. In the electrostatic limit, the method is also proven to conserve total momentum for arbitrary curvilinear meshes. Although momentum is not conserved for arbitrary curvilinear meshes in the electromagnetic case, it is for an important subset of Cartesian tensor-packed meshes. The scheme and its novel conservation properties are demonstrated for several challenging numerical problems using different curvilinear meshes, including a merging flux-rope simulation for a space weather application, and a helical m = 1 mode simulation for magnetic fusion energy application.