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NASA NTRS2021

Drivers of Air-Sea CO2 Flux Seasonality and its Long-Term Changes in the NASA-GISS Model CMIP6 Submission.

Climate change will affect both the mean state and seasonality of marine physical and biogeochemical properties, with important implications for the oceanic sink of atmospheric CO2. Here, we investigate the seasonal cycle of the air-sea exchange of CO2 and pCO2,sw (surface seawater pCO2) and their long term changes using the CMIP6 submission of the NASA-GISS modelE (GISS-E2.1-G). In comparison to the CMIP5 submission (GISS-E2-R), we find that on the global scale, the seasonal cycles of the CO2 flux and NPP have improved, while the seasonal cycles of DIC, alkalinity, and macronutrients have deteriorated. Moreover, for all ocean biogeochemietry fields, changes in skill between E2.1-G and E2-R display large regional variability. For E2.1-G, we find similar modeled and observed CO2 flux seasonal cycles in the subtropical gyres, where seasonal anomalies of pCO2,sw and the flux are temperature-driven, and the Southern Ocean, where anomalies are DIC-driven. Biases in these seasonal cycles are largest in the subpolar and equatorial regions, driven by a combination of biases in temperature, DIC, alkalinity, and wind speed. When comparing the historical simulation to a simulation with an idealized increase in atmospheric pCO2, we find that the seasonal amplitudes of the CO2 flux and pCO2,sw generally increase. These changes are produced by increases in the sensitivity of pCO2,sw to its respective drivers. These findings are consistent with the notion that the sensitivity of pCO2,sw is expected to increase due to the increase of atmospheric pCO2, with changes in the seasonality of temperature, DIC, and alkalinity having secondary influences.

Air-Sea CO2↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Unusual Transmission Spectrum for the Sub-Saturn KELT-11b Suggestive of a Subsolar Water Abundance

We present an optical-to-infrared transmission spectrum of the inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11b measured with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectroscopic grism, and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) at 3.6 μm, in addition to a Spitzer 4.5 μm secondary eclipse. The precise HST transmission spectrum notably reveals a low-amplitude water feature with an unusual shape. Based on free-retrieval analyses with varying molecular abundances, we find strong evidence for water absorption. Depending on model assumptions, we also find tentative evidence for other absorbers (HCN, TiO, and AlO). The retrieved water abundance is generally ≲ 0.1× solar (0.001–0.7× solar over a range of model assumptions), several orders of magnitude lower than expected from planet formation models based on the solar system metallicity trend. We also consider chemical-equilibrium and self-consistent 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model fits and find that they, too, prefer low metallicities ([M/H] ≲ −2, consistent with the free-retrieval results). However, all of the retrievals should be interpreted with some caution because they either require additional absorbers that are far out of chemical equilibrium to explain the shape of the spectrum or are simply poor fits to the data. Finally, we find that the Spitzer secondary eclipse is indicative of full heat redistribution from KELT-11b's dayside to nightside, assuming a clear dayside. These potentially unusual results for KELT-11b's composition are suggestive of new challenges on the horizon for atmosphere and formation models in the face of increasingly precise measurements of exoplanet spectra.

Knicole D. Colón↗

NASA NTRS2018

A search for variability in exoplanet analogues and low-gravity brown dwarfs

We report the results of a J-band survey for photometric variability in a sample of young, low-gravity objects using the New Technology Telescope (NTT) and the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT). Surface gravity is a key parameter in the atmospheric properties of brown dwarfs and this is the first large survey that aims to test the gravity dependence of variability properties. We do a full analysis of the spectral signatures of youth and assess the group membership probability of each target using membership tools from the literature. This results in a 30 object sample of young low-gravity brown dwarfs. Since we are lacking in objects with spectral types later than L9, we focus our statistical analysis on the L0–L8.5 objects. We find that the variability occurrence rate of L0–L8.5 low-gravity brown dwarfs in this survey is 30(+16,−8) per cent⁠. We reanalyse the results of Radigan (2014) and find that the field dwarfs with spectral types L0–L8.5 have a variability occurrence rate of 11(+13,−4) per cent⁠. We determine a probability of 98 per cent that the samples are drawn from different distributions. This is the first quantitative indication that the low-gravity objects are more likely to be variable than the field dwarf population. Furthermore, we present follow-up J(S) and K(S) observations of the young, planetary-mass variable object PSO 318.5–22 over three consecutive nights. We find no evidence of phase shifts between the J(S) and K(S) bands and find higher J(S) amplitudes. We use the J(S) light curves to measure a rotational period of 8.45 ± 0.05 h for PSO 318.5–22.

Johanna M. Vos↗

NASA NTRS2021

Long-term Pulse Period Evolution of the Ultra-luminous X-ray Pulsar NGC 7793 P13

Ultra-luminous X-ray pulsars (ULXPs) provide a unique opportunity to study persistent super-Eddington accretion. Here we present the results of a long-term monitoring campaign of ULXP NGC 7793 P13, focusing on the pulse period evolution and the determination of the orbital ephemeris. Over our four year monitoring campaign with Swift, XMM-Newton, and NuSTAR, we measure a continuous spin-up with an average value of ̇P≈−3.8×10−11s s−1. We find that the strength of the spin-up is independent of the observed X-ray flux, indicating that despite a drop in observed flux in 2019, accretion onto the source has continued at largely similar rates. The source entered an apparent off-state in early 2020, which might have resulted in a change of the accretion geometry as no pulsations were found in observations in July/August 2020.We use the long-term monitoring to update the orbital ephemeris, as well as the periodicities seen in both the observed optical/UV and X-ray fluxes. We find that the optical/UV period is very stable over the years, with PUV=63.75+0.17−0.12d. The best-fit orbital period determined from our X-ray timing results is 64.86±0.19 d, almost a day longer than previously implied, and the X-ray flux period is65.21±0.15 d, slightly shorter than measured previously. The physical origin of these different flux periods is currently unknown. We study the hardness ratio of the XMM-Newton and NuSTAR data between 2013–2020 to search for indications of spectral changes. We find that the hardness ratios at high energies are very stable and not directly correlated with the observed flux. At lower energies we observe a small hardening with increased flux, which might indicate increased obscuration through outflows at higher luminosities. Comparing the changes in flux with the observed pulsed fraction, we find that the pulsed fraction is significantly higher at low fluxes. This seems to imply that the accretion geometry already changed before the source entered the deep off-state. We discuss possible scenarios to explain this behavior, which is likely driven by a precessing accretion disk.

Neutron stars↗

NASA NTRS2021

A variable magnetic disc wind in the black hole X-ray binary GRS 1915+105?

Context. GRS 1915+105 being one of the brightest transient black hole binaries (BHBs) in the X-rays offers a unique testbed for the study of the connection between accretion and ejection mechanisms in BHBs. In particular, this source can be used to study the accretion disc wind and its dependence on the state changes in BHBs. Aims. Our aim is to investigate the origin and geometry of the accretion disc wind in GRS 1915+105. This study will provide a basis for planning future observations with the X-ray Imaging Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM), and may also provide important parameters for estimating the polarimetric signal with the upcoming Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). Methods. We analysed the spectra of GRS 1915+105 in the soft ϕ and hard χ classes using the high-resolution spectroscopy offered by Chandra HETGS. In the soft state, we find a series of wind absorption lines that follow a non-linear dependence of velocity width, velocity shift, and equivalent width with respect to ionisation, indicating a multiple component or stratified outflow. In the hard state we find only a faint Fe XXVI absorption line. We model the absorption lines in both the states using a dedicated magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) wind model to investigate a magnetic origin of the wind and to probe the cause of variability in the observed line flux between the two states. Conclusions. The MHD disc wind model provides a good fit for both states, indicating the possibility of a magnetic origin of the wind. The multiple ionisation components of the wind are well characterised as a stratification of the same magnetic outflow. We find that the observed variability in the line flux between soft and hard states cannot be explained by photo-ionisation alone but is most likely due to a large (three orders of magnitude) increase in the wind density. We find the mass outflow rate of the wind to be comparable to the accretion rate, suggesting an intimate link between accretion and ejection processes that lead to state changes in BHBs.

A. Ratheesh↗

NASA NTRS2022

Mini-disk accretion onto spinning black hole binaries: quasi-periodicities and outflows

We perform a full 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical (GRMHD) simulation of an equal-mass, spinning, binary black hole approaching merger, surrounded by a circumbinary disk and with mini-disks around each black hole. For this purpose, we evolve the ideal GRMHD equations on top of an approximated spacetime for the binary that is valid in every position of space, including the black hole horizons, during the inspiral regime. We use relaxed initial data for the circumbinary disk from a previous long-term simulation, where the accretion is dominated by an m = 1 overdensity called the lump. We compare our new spinning simulation with a previous non-spinning run, studying how spin influences the mini-disk properties. We analyze the accretion from the inner edge of the lump to the black hole, focusing on the angular momentum budget of the fluid around the mini-disks. We find that mini-disks in the spinning case have more mass over a cycle than the non-spinning case. However, in both cases we find most of the mass received by the black holes is delivered by direct plunging of material from the lump. We also analyze the morphology and variability of the electromagnetic fluxes and we find they share the same periodicities of the accretion rate. In the spinning case, we find that the outflows are stronger than the non-spinning case. Our results will be useful to understand and produce realistic synthetic light curves and spectra, which can be used in future observations.

Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2021

Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of <1yr^(−1) in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at 39.7^(+20.3)(-9.1)M or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at 33.1^(+4.0)(-5.6)M (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to ~65M or beyond, only 2.9^(+3.5)(-1.7)M% of systems have primary masses greater than 45M. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, χeff. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing |χeff| > 0.01 are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding RBBH = 23.9^(+14.3)(-8.6) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for BBHs and RBNS = 320^(+490)(-240) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift (85% credibility) but not faster than the star formation rate (86% credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.

R Abbott↗

NASA NTRS2021

Probing Galaxy Evolution in Massive Clusters Using ACT and DES: Splashback as a Cosmic Clock

We measure the projected number density profiles of galaxies and the splashback feature in clusters selected by the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect from the Advanced Atacama Cosmology Telescope (AdvACT) survey using galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The splashback radius is consistent with CDM-only simulations and is located at-+-h2.4 Mpc0.40.31. We split the galaxies on color and find significant differences in their profile shapes. Red and green-valley galaxies show a splashback-like minimum in their slope profile consistent with theory, while the bluest galaxies show a weak feature at a smaller radius. We develop a mapping of galaxies to subhalos in simulations and assign colors based on infall time onto their hosts. We find that the shift in location of the steepest slope and different profile shapes can be mapped to the average time of infall of galaxies of different colors. The steepest slope traces a discontinuity in the phase space of dark matter halos. By relating spatial profiles to infall time, we can use splashback as a clock to understand galaxy quenching. We find that red galaxies have on average been in clusters over 3.2 Gyr, green galaxies about 2.2 Gyr, while blue galaxies have been accreted most recently and have not reached apocenter. Using the full radial profiles, we fit a simple quenching model and find that the onset of galaxy quenching occurs after a delay of about a gigayear and that galaxies quench rapidly thereafter with an exponential timescale of 0.6 Gyr.

Galaxy clusters↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Combined Al-Mg/Pb-Pb Age of the Solar System

Astrophysical models of planet formation and protoplanetary disk evolution demand precise and accurate timing of the sequence of events in the solar nebula, relative to a time t=0, usually taken to be during the short epoch of CAI (Ca-rich, Al-rich inclusion) formation. Most CAIs formed withlive26Al (mean-life τ26= 1.034 Myr [1]), with an abundance 26Al/27Al ≈ (26Al/27Al)SS= 5.23 × 10-5[2]. We adopt this as the widespread level of 26Al in the solar nebula at t=0. Assuming spatial homogeneity of 26Al, an inclusion that had less 26Al, (26Al/27Al)0, formed a time Δt26= τ26ln[(26Al/27Al)SS/ (26Al/27Al)0] after t=0.These ages are typical precise to within ±0.1 Myr. Igneous bulk meteorites and inclusions can be relatively dated by the Al-Mg chronometer, but only ifΔt26<6 Myr. The Pb-Pb system is useful as a longer relative chronometer. It yields absolute ages tPb using 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/204Pb, and 238U/235U ratios measured indifferent portions of a sample, assuming certain half-lives [4]. These absolute ages are uncertain to within ±9 Myr due to uncertainties in the 235U half-life[3], but times of formation ΔtPb= tCAI–tPb relative to t=0, are more precise(±0.5Myr),iftCAI can be found. Here, tCAI means the Pb-Pb age that would be measured in CAIs using the half-lives the community typically uses, if they achieved isotopic closure at t=0. Unfortunately, direct Pb-Pb dating of CAIs has not definitively determined tCAI. Based on four CAIs with canonical (26Al/27Al)0,[5,6] found tPb= 4567.30 ± 0.16 Myr. No other CAI ages with measured 238U/235U have been reported in the refereed literature, but there are hints of other CAIs with ages tPb= 4568.0 ± 0.2 Myr [7] and tPb= 4568.3 ± 0.2 Myr [8].It is unclear whether anyof these igneous type B CAIs isotopically closed at t=0 or represents tCAI. Instead of measurements, we advocate finding tCAI by minimizing the discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers. Assuming Δt26=ΔtPb, we find the implied t’CAI= tPb+Δt26, then define t*CAIas the weighted mean of the t’CAI. t*CAIis the best guess for the Pb-Pb age of t=0; the assumption of homogeneity is justified if the t’CAI cluster within errors around t*CAI. This statistical approach is similar to, but improves on, that of[9]. We find t*CAI= 4568.73 ± 0.16 Myr. Below we discuss our methodology and the implications of this age for CAIs, 1.4 Myr older than the reported and typically used age 4567.30±0.16 Myr. Methods: We base our estimate of t*CAIon five achondrites for which published (26Al/27Al)0and Pb-Pb ages exist: the quenched angrites D’Orbigny, Sahara 99555 (SAH 99555), and Northwest Africa (NWA) 1670; the pseudo-eucrite Asuka 881394; and the inner disk achondrite. All are “NC” (non-carbonaceous) achondrites that likely cooled quickly enough that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems achieved isotopic closure simultaneously. We also considered the “CC” (carbonaceous chondrite-like) achondrites NWA 2796 and NWA 6704, butdo not include them in our fit. Al-Mg and Pb-Pb seem not to have closed simultaneously, possibly because formation in the outer disk from volatile-rich composition led to slower cooling. Of the 8 chondrules from NWA 5697 measured by [20,21], we also consider the 4 for which 238U/235U was measured: 2-C1, 5-C2, 3-C5, 11-C1.Depending on their post-formation thermal histories, the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in chondrules may or may not have closed simultaneously. Table 1: (26Al/27Al)0, Pb-Pb ages of selected samplesSample(26Al/27Al)0/ 10-6RefPb-PbRefD’Orbigny3.98±0.15104563.43±0.19♮10-12SAH 995553.64±0.18104563.88±0.2712NWA16705.92±0.59104564.39±0.24*10Asuka 88139413.1±0.5613-154564.98±0.1715NWA 73253.03±0.14164563.4±2.616NWA 27963.94±0.16174562.89±0.5917NWA 67043.03±0.14184562.76±0.26192-C17.56±1.53204567.57±0.56*215-C27.04±1.51204567.54±0.52*213-C58.85±1.83204566.20±0.63*2111-C15.55±1.84204565.84±0.72*21*regression based on one subset of data points ♮weighted mean of two datasets Pb-Pb ages are proportional to the intercept of the line formed by linear regression of 207Pb/206Pb vs. 206Pb/204Pb data from various washes, leachates and residues of acid dissolution of a sample. Because contamination by terrestrial or primordial Pb is pervasive, some fractions must be excluded from regressions to ensure a fit with acceptable mean squares weighted deviation (MSWD). Usually points are excluded based on low [Pb], or low 206Pb/204Pb ratio(low radiogenic component), with single outliers identified [11,12,15,16,17]. In the starred examples (Table 1)and the case of 3 CAI Pb-Pb ages [5], up to half the points were excluded solely because did not fit a pre-determined line. This approach is vulnerable to confirmation bias and produces fits with low MSWD and too-low Pb-Pb age uncertainty. Regressing the same data points as [10], were produce the Pb-Pb age of NWA 1670 of 4564.39±0.24 Myr. But selecting other combinations of data points, other, equally valid, isochrons yield ages from 4563.77±0.21 Myr to 4564.64±0.23 Myr. Similar arguments apply to the Pb-Pb isochrons built by [21] for chondrules 2-C1 (we find 4567.33±0.44 to 4567.85±0.46 Myr), 5-C2 (4566.84±0.53 to 4567.70±0.44 Myr), 3-C5 (4565.84±0.54to 4567.04±0.54)and 11-C1 (4565.36±0.51 to 4565.74±0.45 Myr). Our adopted ages for these and NWA 1670 are listed in Table 2.Table 2. tCAI estimated from various components, using our regressions for the chondrules & NWA 1670.SampleΔt26(Myr)tPb(Myr)t’CAI(Myr)D’Orbigny5.05±0.044563.43±0.194568.48±0.19SAH 995555.14±0.054563.88±0.274569.02±0.27NWA16704.64±0.104564.21±0.634568.85±0.67Asuka 8813943.81±0.044564.98±0.174568.79±0.17NWA 73255.33±0.054563.4±2.64568.7±2.6NWA 27965.06±0.044562.89±0.594567.95±0.59NWA 67045.29±0.134562.76±0.264568.05±0.292-C12.00±0.214567.59±0.704569.59±0.725-C22.07±0.224567.23±0.914569.30±0.933-C51.84±0.214566.44±1.124568.28±1.1411-C12.32±0.344565.52±0.664567.84±0.73achondrite4568.72±0.16chondrules4568.76±0.58combined4568.73±0.16A weighted average of the five NC achondrites(or just D’Orbigny, SAH 99555 and Asuka 881394)yields t*CAI= 4568.72 ± 0.16Myr. All are consistent with this value to within 1.8σ, and MSWD=1.5. Including the 4 U-corrected chondrules, t*CAI= 4568.73± 0.16Myrwith MSWD=1.66, which is statistically significant. All chondrules and NC achondrites are consistent with this to within 1.8σ, (Figure 1).Figure 1. Al-Mg formation times after t=0 vs. Pb-Pb ages. The five NC achondrites and four chondrules are consistent with a Pb-Pb age of t=0 of 4568.7 Myr. Discussion: The data from achondrites and chondrules are consistent with a single Pb-Pb age at t=0, justifying the assumption of 26Al homogeneity. The age, 4568.7 Myr, is ≈1.4 Myr older than the commonly accepted Pb-Pb age of CAIs that formed with canonical 26Al/27Al at t=0 [3]. Others have interpreted the discrepancy to signify 26Al heterogeneity in the CAI-forming region[5,21]. We suggest instead that CAIs were exposed to transient heating events that reset the Pb-Pb system without disturbing the Al-Mg system. Notably, chondrules typically experienced transient heating at these times in the nebula [22]. If so, direct measurements of CAIs will not yield as reliable a Pb-Pb age of t=0 as statistical approaches like this and that of [9].References:[1] Auer et al. 2009. [2] Jacobsen, B et al. 2008, EPSL 272, 353-364. [3] Tissot, Fet al. 2017, GCA 213, 593-617.[4] Villa, I et al. 2016, GCA 172, 387-392.[5] Amelin, Y et al. 2010, EPSL 300, 343-350.[6] Connelly, Jet al. 2012, Science 338, 651.[7] Bouvier, Aet al. 2011, LPICo 1639, 9054. [8] Bouvier, Aand Wadhwa, M2010, Nat Geosci 3, 637-641.[9] Nyquist, Let al. 2009, GCA 73, 5115-5136.[10] Schiller et al. 2015. [11] Wadhwa & Brennecka 2012. [12] Tissot et al. 2017. [13] Nyquist et al. 2003. [14] Wadhwa et al. 2009. [15] Wimpenny et al. 2019, GCA 244, 478-501.[16] Koefoed et al. 2016, GCA 183, 31-45. [17] Bouvier, A et al. 2011, GCA 75, 5310-5323. [18] Sanborn, Met al. 2019, GCA 245, 577-596. [19] Amelin, Yet al. 2019, GCA 245, 628-642.[20] Bollard, Jet al. 2017, Sci Adv 3 ,e1700407. [21] Bollard, Jet al. 2019, GCA 260, 62-83.[22] Villeneuve, J et al. 2009, Science 325, 985

S. J. Desch↗

NASA NTRS2021

Triply eclipsing triple stars in the northern TESS fields: TICs 193993801, 388459317, and 52041148

In this work we report the discovery and analysis of three new triply eclipsing triple star systems found with the TESS mission during its observations of the northern skies: TICs 193993801, 388459317, and 52041148. We utilized the TESS precision photometry of the binary eclipses and third-body eclipsing events, ground-based archival and follow-up photometric data, eclipse timing variations, archival spectral energy distributions, as well as theoretical evolution tracks in a joint photodynamical analysis to deduce the system masses and orbital parameters of both the inner and outer orbits. In one case (TIC 193993801) we also obtained radial velocity measurements of all three stars. This enabled us to `calibrate' our analysis approach with and without `truth' (i.e., RV) data. We find that the masses are good to 1-3% accuracy with RV data and 3-10% without the use of RV data. In all three systems we were able to find the outer orbital period before doing any detailed analysis by searching for a longer-term periodicity in the ASAS-SN archival photometry data -- just a few thousand ASAS-SN points enabled us to find the outer periods of 49.28 d, 89.86 d, and 177.0 d, respectively. From our full photodynamical analysis we find that all three systems are coplanar to within 1 ∘ −3 ∘ . The outer eccentricities of the three systems are 0.003, 0.10, and 0.62, respectively (i.e., spanning a factor of 200). The masses of the three stars {Aa, Ab, and B} in the three systems are: {1.31, 1.19, 1.34}, {1.82, 1.73, 2.19}, and {1.62, 1.48, 2.74} M ⊙ , respectively.

Tamás Borkovits↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Closer Look at Non-Random Patterns Within Chemistry Space for a Smaller, Earlier Amino Acid Alphabet

Recent findings, in vitro and in silico, are strengthening the idea of a simpler, earlier stage of genetically encoded proteins which used amino acids produced by prebiotic chemistry. These findings motivate a re-examination of prior work which has identified unusual properties of the set of twenty amino acids found within the full genetic code, while leaving it unclear whether similar patterns also characterize the subset of prebiotically plausible amino acids. We have suggested previously that this ambiguity may result from the low number of amino acids recognized by the definition of prebiotic plausibility used for the analysis. Here, we test this hypothesis using significantly updated data for organic material detected within meteorites, which contain several coded and non-coded amino acids absent from prior studies. In addition to confirming the well-established idea that “late” arriving amino acids expanded the chemistry space encoded by genetic material, we find that a prebiotically plausible subset of coded amino acids generally emulates the patterns found in the full set of 20, namely an exceptionally broad and even distribution of volumes and an exceptionally even distribution of hydrophobicities (quantified as logP) over a narrow range. However, the strength of this pattern varies depending on both the size and composition the library used to create a background (null model) for a random alphabet, and the precise definition of exactly which amino acids were present in a simpler, earlier code. Findings support the idea that a small sample size of amino acids caused previous ambiguous results, and further improvements in meteorite analysis, and/or prebiotic simulations will further clarify the nature and extent of unusual properties. We discuss the case of sulfur-containing amino acids as a specific and clear example and conclude by reviewing the potential impact of better understanding the chemical “logic” of a smaller forerunner to the standard amino acid alphabet.

Amino acids↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of SO2, SO4(2−) and an Updated SO2 Dry Deposition Parameterization in the United Kingdom Earth System Model

In this study we evaluate simulated surface SO2 and sulphate (SO4(2-)) concentrations from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) against observations from ground based measurement networks in the USA and Europe for the period 1987 to 2014. We find that UKESM1 captures the historical trend for decreasing concentrations of atmospheric SO2 and SO4(2-) in both Europe and the USA over the period 1987 to 2014. However, in the polluted regions of the eastern USA and Europe, UKESM1 over-predicts surface SO2 concentrations by a factor of 3, while under-predicting surface SO4(2-) concentrations by 25-35%. In the cleaner western USA, the model over-predicts both surface SO2 and SO4(2-) concentrations by a factor of 12 and 1.5 respectively. We find that UKESM1’s bias in surface SO2 and SO4(2-) concentrations is variable according to region and season. We also evaluate UKESM1 against total column SO2 from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using an updated data product. This comparison provides information about the model’s global performance, finding that UKESM1 over predicts total column SO2 over much of the globe, including the large source regions of India, China, the USA and Europe as well as over outflow regions. Finally, we assess the impact of a more realistic treatment of the model’s SO2 dry deposition parameterization. This change increases SO2 dry deposition to the land and ocean surfaces, thus reducing the atmospheric loading of SO2 and SO(sup 2-)(sub 4). In comparison with the ground-based and satellite observations, we find that the modified parameterization reduces the models over prediction of surface SO2 concentrations and total column SO2. Relative to the ground-based observations the simulated surface SO4(2-) concentrations are also reduced, while the simulated SO2 dry deposition fluxes increase.

SO2↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Emissions of Methane Consistent with Atmospheric Measurements of Methane and δC-13 of Methane

We have constructed an atmospheric inversion framework based on TM5-4DVAR to jointly assimilate measurements of methane and δC-13 of methane in order to estimate source-specific methane emissions. Here we present global emission estimates from this framework for the period 1999–2016. We assimilate a newly constructed, multi-agency database of CH4 and δC-13 measurements. We find that traditional CH4-only atmospheric inversions are unlikely to estimate emissions consistent with atmospheric δC-13 data and assimilating δC-13 data is necessary to derive emissions consistent with both measurements. Our framework attributes ca. 85% of the post-2007 growth in atmospheric methane to microbial sources, with about half of that coming from the tropics between 23.5° N and 23.5° S. This contradicts the attribution of the recent growth in the methane budget of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). We find that the GCP attribution is only consistent with our top-down estimate in the absence of δC-13 data. We find that at global and continental scales, δC-13 data can separate microbial from fossil methane emissions much better than CH4 data alone, and at smaller scales this ability is limited by the current δC-13 measurement coverage. Finally, we find that the largest uncertainty in using δC-13 data to separate different methane source types comes from our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry, specifically the distribution of tropospheric chlorine and the isotopic discrimination of the methane sink.

Methane↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Near-Earth Object Observations Program: Abbreviated History and Update

In the wake of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9’s (D/1993 F2) collision with Jupiter, NASA’s Near-Earth Object (NEO) Observations Program was established more than two decades ago. The NEO Observations Program is responsible for finding, tracking, and characterizing NEOs. Since the Program’s inception in 1998, NASA-funded efforts have discovered more than 98% of the more than 30,000 NEOs currently known. This unique NASA Program supports several NEO surveys that contribute to a sustained and productive campaign to find and track NEOs; collecting data of sufficient precision to allow accurate predictions of the future trajectories of discovered objects. It is a key element of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The Program also sponsors applied planetary science research conducted at NASA field centers, astronomical observatories, and other locations around the United States. The PDCO relies on data from projects supported by the NEO Observations Program which, in turn, also coordinates NEO observation efforts conducted at ground-based observatories sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the space domain awareness facilities of the United States Space Force (USSF). PDCO’s current priority is the NEO Surveyor Mission (NEOSM) , launched away from the vicinity of Earth to SEL1 and working in coordination with large ground-based surveys could complete the NEO survey within a decade following launch. NEOSM’s has three primary mission objectives: - assess the current risk to the Earth of asteroid impact(s); - examine the origin and ultimate fate of the asteroid population (within our solar system); - to find suitable, low-Δv targets for future robotic and piloted missions of exploration Operating at SEL1, NEOSM will also find NEOs with long synodic periods (i.e., several decades or longer) and unfavorable orbital viewing geometries. NEOSM will obviate the inherent Earth-based geometric observing handicap.

NEO↗

NASA NTRS2023

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2022

Is [Y/Mg] a Reliable Age Diagnostic for FGK Stars?

Current spectroscopic surveys are producing large catalogs of chemical abundances for stars of all types. The yttrium-to-magnesium ratio, [Y/Mg], has emerged as a candidate age indicator for solar twins in the local stellar neighborhood. However, it is unclear whether it is a viable age diagnostic for more diverse stellar types, so we investigate [Y/Mg] as an age indicator for the FGK-type planet host stars observed by Kepler. We find that the [Y/Mg] "Clock" is most precise for solar twins, with a [Y/Mg]/age slope of m = −0.0370 ±0.0071 dex Gyr −1 and σ Age = 2.6 Gyr. We attribute the lower precision compared to literature results to nonsolar twins contaminating our solar twin sample and recommend a 1.5 Gyr systematic uncertainty for stellar ages derived with any [Y/Mg]–Age relation. We also analyzed the [Y/Mg] Clock as a function of T eff , log⁡ g, and metallicity individually and find no strong trends, but we compute statistically significant [Y/Mg]–Age relations for subsamples defined by ranges in T eff , log g, and metallicity. Finally, we compare [Y/Mg] and rotation ages and find statistically similar trends as for isochrone ages, although we find that rotation ages perform better for GK dwarfs while isochrones perform better for FG subgiants. We conclude that the [Y/Mg] Clock is most precise for solar twins and analogs but is also a useful age diagnostic for FGK stars.

Travis A. Berger↗

NASA NTRS2023

Mercuryʼs Circumsolar Dust Ring as an Imprint of a Recent Impact

A circumsolar dust ring has been recently discovered close to the orbit of Mercury. There are currently no hypotheses for the origin of this ring in the literature, so we explore four different origin scenarios here: the dust originated from (1) the sporadic meteoroid complex that comprises the major portion of the Zodiacal Cloud, (2) recent asteroidal/cometary activity, (3) hypothetical dust-generating bodies locked in mean-motion resonances beyond Mercury, and (4) bodies co-orbiting with Mercury. We find that only scenario (4) reproduces the observed structure and location of Mercury's dust ring. However, the lifetimes of Mercury's co-orbitals (<20 Ma) preclude a primordial origin of the co-orbiting source population due to dynamical instabilities and meteoroid bombardment, demanding a recent event feeding the observed dust ring. We find that an impact on Mercury can eject debris into the co-orbital resonance. We estimate the ages of six candidate impacts that formed craters larger than 40 km in diameter using high-resolution spacecraft data from MESSENGER and find two craters with estimated surface ages younger than 50 Ma. We find that the amount of mass transported from Mercury's surface into the co-orbital resonance from these two impacts is several orders of magnitude smaller than what is needed to explain the magnitude of Mercury's ring inferred from remote sensing. Therefore we suggest that numerous younger, smaller impacts collectively contributed to the origin of the ring. We conclude that the recent impact hypothesis for the origin of Mercury's dust ring is a viable scenario, whose validity can be constrained by future inner solar system missions.

Petr Pokorny↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Sensitive Search for Supernova Emission Associated with the Extremely Energetic and Nearby GRB 221009A

We report observations of the optical counterpart of the long gamma-ray burst GRB 221009A. Due to the extreme rarity of being both nearby (z = 0.151) and highly energetic (E ϒ,iso ≥ 10 54 erg), GRB 221009A offers a unique opportunity to probe the connection between massive star core collapse and relativistic jet formation across a very broad range of γ-ray properties. Adopting a phenomenological power-law model for the afterglow and host galaxy estimates from high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging, we use Bayesian model comparison techniques to determine the likelihood of an associated supernova (SN) contributing excess flux to the optical light curve. Though not conclusive, we find moderate evidence (K Bayes =10 1.2 for the presence of an additional component arising from an associated SN, SN 2022xiw, and find that it must be substantially fainter (<67% as bright at the 99% confidence interval) than SN 1998bw. Given the large and uncertain line-of-sight extinction, we attempt to constrain the SN parameters (M Ni , M ej and E KE ) under several different assumptions with respect to the host galaxy's extinction. We find properties that are broadly consistent with previous GRB-associated SNe: M Ni = 0.05–0.25 M ⊙ , M ej = 3.5–11.1 M ⊙ , and E KE = (1.6–5.2) × 10 52 erg. We note that these properties are weakly constrained due to the faintness of the SN with respect to the afterglow and host emission, but we do find a robust upper limit on M Ni of M Ni < 0.36 M ⊙ . Given the tremendous range in isotropic gamma-ray energy release exhibited by GRBs (seven orders of magnitude), the SN emission appears to be decoupled from the central engine in these systems.

Core-collapse supernovae↗