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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Recent advances in hydrotreating of pyrolysis bio-oil and its oxygen-containing model compounds

There is considerable world-wide interest in discovering renewable sources of energy that can substitute for fossil fuels. Lignocellulosic biomass, which is the most abundant and inexpensive renewable feedstock on the planet, has a great potential for sustainable production of fuels, chemicals, and carbon-based materials. Fast pyrolysis integrated with hydrotreating is one of the simplest, most cost-effective and most efficient processes to convert lignocellulosic biomass to liquid hydrocarbon fuels for transportation, which has attracted significant attention in recent decades. However, effective hydrotreating of pyrolysis bio-oil presents a daunting challenge to the commercialization of biomass conversion via pyrolysis-hydrotreating. Specifically, development of active, selective, and stable hydrotreating catalysts is the bottleneck due to the poor quality of pyrolysis bio-oil feedstock (high oxygen content, molecular complexity, coking propensity, and corrosiveness). Significant research has been conducted to address the practical issues and provide the fundamental understanding of the hydrotreating/hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of bio-oils and their oxygen-containing model compounds, including phenolics, furans, and carboxylic acids. A wide range of catalysts have been studied, including conventional Mo-based sulfide catalysts and noble metal catalysts, with the latter being the primary focus of the recent research because of their excellent catalytic performances and no requirement of environmentally unfriendly sulfur. The reaction mechanisms of HDO of model compounds on noble metal catalysts as well as their efficacy for hydrotreating or stabilization of bio-oil have been recently reported. This review provides a survey of the relevant literatures of recent 10 years about the advances in the understanding of the HDO chemistry of bio-oils and their model compounds mainly on noble metal catalysts.

biomass, lignocellulose, pyrolysis bio-oil, hydrod↗
DOE OSTI2013

Mechanism of Methane Chemical Looping Combustion with Hematite Promoted with CeO 2

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is a promising technology for fossil fuel combustion that produces sequestration-ready CO{sub 2} stream, reducing the energy penalty of CO{sub 2} separation from flue gases. An effective oxygen carrier for CLC will readily react with the fuel gas and will be reoxidized upon contact with oxygen. This study investigated the development of a CeO{sub 2}-promoted Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}-hematite oxygen carrier suitable for the methane CLC process. Composition of CeO{sub 2} is between 5 and 25 wt % and is lower than what is generally used for supports in Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} carrier preparations. The incorporation of CeO{sub 2} to the natural ore hematite strongly modifies the reduction behavior in comparison to that of CeO{sub 2} and hematite alone. Temperature-programmed reaction studies revealed that the addition of even 5 wt % CeO{sub 2} enhances the reaction capacity of the Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} oxygen carrier by promoting the decomposition and partial oxidation of methane. Fixed-bed reactor data showed that the 5 wt % cerium oxides with 95 wt % iron oxide produce 2 times as much carbon dioxide in comparison to the sum of carbon dioxide produced when the oxides were tested separately. This effect is likely due to the reaction of CeO{sub 2} with methane forming intermediates, which are reactive for extracting oxygen from Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} at a considerably faster rate than the rate of the direct reaction of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} with methane. These studies reveal that 5 wt % CeO{sub 2}/Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} gives stable conversions over 15 reduction/oxidation cycles. Lab-scale reactor studies (pulsed mode) suggest the methane reacts initially with CeO{sub 2} lattice oxygen to form partial oxidation products (CO + H{sub 2}), which continue to react with oxygen from neighboring Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}, leading to its complete oxidation to form CO{sub 2}. The reduced cerium oxide promotes the methane decomposition reaction to form C + H{sub 2}, which continue to react with Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}/Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} to form CO/CO{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O. This mechanism is supported by the characterization studies, which also suggest that the formation of carbonaceous intermediates may affect the reaction rate and selectivity of the oxygen carrier.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

Forsterite [Mg 2 SiO 4 )] Carbonation in Wet Supercritical CO 2 : An in Situ High-Pressure X-ray Diffraction Study

Technological advances have been significant in recent years for managing environmentally harmful emissions (mostly CO2) resulting from combustion of fossil fuels. Deep underground geologic formations are emerging as reasonable options for long term storage of CO2 but mechanisms controlling rock and mineral stability in contact with injected supercritical fluids containing water are relatively unknown. In this paper, we discuss mineral transformation reactions occurring with forsterite (Mg2SiO4) exposed to wet supercritical CO2. Forsterite was selected as it is an important olivine group mineral present in igneous and mafic rocks and has been the subject of a large number of aqueous dissolution studies that can be compared with non-aqueous fluid tests in this study. Transformation reactions were examined by in situ high pressure x-ray diffraction in the presence of supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) containing dissolved water at conditions relevant to carbon sequestration. Under modest pressures (90 bar) and temperatures (50°C), scCO2 saturated with water was found to convert >70 wt% forsterite to a hydrated magnesium carbonate, nesquehonite (MgCO3 •3H2O) and magnesite (MgCO3), after 72 hours of reaction. However, comparable tests with scCO2 at only partial water saturation (82%) showed a significantly slower carbonation rate with only ~30-39 wt% conversion to nesquehonite and no evidence of the anhydrous form (MgCO3). Further decreases in water content of the scCO2 continued to reduce the extent of carbonation, until a critical moisture threshold (~30%) was crossed where forsterite no longer reacted in the presence of the wet scCO2 to form crystalline carbonates. Increasing the temperature to 75°C produced anhydrous magnesium carbonate, magnesite (MgCO3), preceded by the intermediate phase, hydromagnesite [Mg(CO3)4(OH)2 •4H2O]. Measurements conducted during in situ IR experiments at 50°C and 30% saturation identified the presence of an amorphous carbonate phase as well as the formation of a thin liquid-like water layer on the forsterite surface. The presence of this water film appears to be critical for the mineral carbonation of forsterite exposed to water bearing scCO2. In contrast, our prior studies with the mineral brucite [Mg(OH)2] showed extensive carbonation in the absence of a condensed water layer on the mineral surface. The contrasts in reaction rate and products formed demonstrated by temperature and water-content dependence highlights the importance of these kinds of studies to help enable better predictions of the long term fate of geologically stored CO2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Emissions Implications of Future Natural Gas Production and Use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain Region

Enhanced prospects for natural gas production raise questions about the balance of impacts on air quality, as increased emissions from production activities are considered alongside the reductions expected when natural gas is burned in place of other fossil fuels. This study explores how trends in natural gas production over the coming decades might affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for the United States and its Rocky Mountain region. The MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy system optimization model is used with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's nine-region database to compare scenarios for natural gas supply and demand, constraints on the electricity generation mix, and GHG emissions fees. Through 2050, total energy system GHG emissions show little response to natural gas supply assumptions, due to offsetting changes across sectors. Policy-driven constraints or emissions fees are needed to achieve net reductions. In most scenarios, wind is a less expensive source of new electricity supplies in the Rocky Mountain region than natural gas. U.S. NOx emissions decline in all the scenarios considered. Increased VOC emissions from natural gas production offset part of the anticipated reductions from the transportation sector, especially in the Rocky Mountain region.

emissions↗
DOE OSTI2014

Global Chemical Composition of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter for Exposure Assessment

Epidemiologic and health impact studies are inhibited by the paucity of global, long-term measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter. We inferred PM 2.5 chemical composition at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 2004–2008 by combining aerosol optical depth retrieved from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments, with coincident profile and composition information from the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Evaluation of the satellite-model PM 2.5 composition data set with North American in situ measurements indicated significant spatial agreement for secondary inorganic aerosol, particulate organic mass, black carbon, mineral dust, and sea salt. We found that global population-weighted PM 2.5 concentrations were dominated by particulate organic mass (11.9 ± 7.3 μg/m 3 ), secondary inorganic aerosol (11.1 ± 5.0 μg/m 3 ), and mineral dust (11.1 ± 7.9 μg/m 3 ). Secondary inorganic PM 2.5 concentrations exceeded 30 μg/m 3 over East China. Sensitivity simulations suggested that population-weighted ambient PM 2.5 from biofuel burning (11 μg/m 3 ) could be almost as large as from fossil fuel combustion sources (17 μg/m 3 ). In conclusion, these estimates offer information about global population exposure to the chemical components and sources of PM 2.5 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Mechanisms Mapped in Aryl Alkyl Ether Cleavage via Aqueous Electrocatalytic Hydrogenation over Skeletal Nickel

We present here detailed mechanistic studies of electrocatalytic hydrogenation (ECH) in aqueous solution over skeletal nickel cathodes to probe the various paths of reductive catalytic C–O bond cleavage among functionalized aryl ethers relevant to energy science. Heterogeneous catalytic hydrogenolysis of aryl ethers is important both in hydrodeoxygenation of fossil fuels and in upgrading of lignin from biomass. The presence or absence of simple functionalities such as carbonyl, hydroxyl, methyl, or methoxyl groups is known to cause dramatic shifts in reactivity and cleavage selectivity between sp3 C–O and sp2 C–O bonds. Specifically, reported hydrogenolysis studies with Ni and other catalysts have hinted at different cleavage mechanisms for the C–O ether bonds in α-keto and α-hydroxy β-O-4 type aryl ether linkages of lignin. Our new rate, selectivity, and isotopic labeling results from ECH reactions confirm that these aryl ethers undergo C–O cleavage via distinct paths. For the simple 2-phenoxy-1-phenylethane or its alcohol congener, 2-phenoxy-1-phenylethanol, the benzylic site is activated via Ni C–H insertion, followed by beta elimination of the phenoxide leaving group. But in the case of the ketone, 2-phenoxyacetophenone, the polarized carbonyl π system apparently binds directly with the electron rich Ni cathode surface without breaking the aromaticity of the neighboring phenyl ring, leading to rapid cleavage. Substituent steric and electronic perturbations across a broad range of β-O-4 type ethers create a hierarchy of cleavage rates that supports these mechanistic ideas while offering guidance to allow rational design of the catalytic method. Furthermore, on the basis of the new insights, the usage of cosolvent acetone is shown to enable control of product selectivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accessing Organonitrogen Compounds via C–N Coupling in Electrocatalytic CO 2 Reduction

Given the limited product variety of electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction reactions solely from CO 2 and H 2 O as the reactants, it is desirable to expand the product scope by introducing additional reactants that provide elemental diversity. The integration of inorganic heteroatom-containing reactants into electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction could in principle enable the sustainable synthesis of valuable products, such as organonitrogen compounds, which have widespread applications but typically rely on NH 3 derived from the energy-intensive and fossil-fuel-dependent Haber-Bosch process for their industrial scale production. Here, in this Perspective, research progress towards building C-N bonds in N-integrated electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction is highlighted, and the electrosyntheses of urea, acetamides, and amines are examined from the standpoint of reactivity, catalyst structure, and most fundamentally, mechanism. Mechanistic discussions of C-N coupling in these advances are emphasized and critically evaluated, with the aim of directing future investigations on improving the product yield and broadening the product scope of N-integrated electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction.

electrochemical reduction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Activation and Conversion of Methane to Syngas over ZrO 2 /Cu(111) Catalysts near Room Temperature

Enzymatic systems achieve the catalytic conversion of methane at room temperature under mild conditions. Here, in this study, varying thermodynamic and kinetic parameters, we show that the reforming of methane by water (MWR, CH 4 + H 2 O → CO + 3H 2 ) and the water-gas shift reaction (WGS, CO + H 2 O → H 2 + CO 2 ), two essential processes to integrate fossil fuels toward a H2 energy loop, can be achieved on ZrO 2 /Cu(111) catalysts near room temperature. Measurements of ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and mass spectrometry, combined with density functional calculations and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, were used to study the behavior of the inverse oxide/metal catalysts. The superior performance is associated with a unique zirconia-copper interface, where multifunctional sites involving zirconium, oxygen, and copper work coordinatively to dissociate methane and water at 300 K and move forward the MWR and WGS processes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic Activity of an Ensemble of Sites for CO 2 Hydrogenation to Methanol on a ZrO 2 -on-Cu Inverse Catalyst

The significant increase in CO 2 emissions from heavy fossil fuel utilization has raised serious concerns, highlighting the need for effective methods to convert CO 2 into value-added chemicals. Here, in this work, we report a computational investigation on the catalytic activity of ZrO 2 -on-Cu inverse catalysts for CO 2 hydrogenation to methanol, considering highly dispersed ZrO 2 trimers on Cu (111). Such clusters present a large ensemble of formate-containing configurations, Zr 3 O n (OH) m (OCHO) l , making the evaluation of the catalytic activity very challenging. We found that the sites on the various catalyst configurations exhibit markedly different activities for formate hydrogenation, despite their similar free energy and composition. To understand these differences in reactivity, we examined the structural and electronic nature of the low free-energy catalyst configurations and identified that the energy of the lowest unoccupied orbital of the reacting formate, modified by its binding with the catalytic site, is a descriptor for the reaction energy of the formate hydrogenation step. From there, we screened an ensemble of catalyst structures using this descriptor to predict highly active metastable catalyst configurations and computed the reaction pathways and transition states for formate hydrogenation. From this investigation, we distinguished reactive from nonreactive sites and formate species on the ZrO 2 /Cu inverse catalyst based on structural and electronic features. We showed that rare metastable configurations control the activity. Additionally, an efficient method for examining the reactivity of a large number of coexisting catalyst structures was developed.

catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near Quantitative Removal of Selenate and Sulfate Anions from Wastewaters by Cocrystallization with Chelating Hydrogen-Bonding Guanidinium Ligands

Selenium (Se) has become an environmental contaminant of aquatic ecosystems as a result of human activities, particularly mining, fossil fuel combustion, and agricultural activities. By leveraging the high sulfate concentrations relative to Se oxyanions (i.e., SeO n 2– , n = 3, 4) present in some wastewaters, we have developed an efficient approach to Se-oxyanion removal by cocrystallization with bisiminoguanidinium (BIG) ligands that form crystalline sulfate/selenate solid solutions. The crystallization of the sulfate, selenate and selenite, oxyanions and of sulfate/selenate mixtures with five candidate BIG ligands are reported along with the thermodynamics of crystallization and aqueous solubilities. Oxyanion removal experiments with the top two performing candidate ligands show a near quantitative removal (>99%) of sulfate or selenate from solution. When both sulfate and selenate are present, there is near quantitative removal (>99%) of selenate, down to sub-ppb Se levels, with no discrimination between the two oxyanions during cocrystallization. Reducing the selenate concentrations by 3 orders of magnitude or more relative to sulfate, as found in many wastewaters, led to no measurable loss in Se removal efficiencies. This work offers a simple and effective alternative to selective separation of trace amounts of highly toxic selenate oxyanions from wastewaters, to meet stringent regulatory discharge limits.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enzymatic Routes to Designer Hemicelluloses for Use in Biobased Materials

Various enzymes can be used to modify the structure of hemicelluloses directly in vivo or following extraction from biomass sources, such as wood and agricultural residues. Generally, these enzymes can contribute to designer hemicelluloses through four main strategies: (1) enzymatic hydrolysis such as selective removal of side groups by glycoside hydrolases (GH) and carbohydrate esterases (CE), (2) enzymatic cross-linking, for instance, the selective addition of side groups by glycosyltransferases (GT) with activated sugars, (3) enzymatic polymerization by glycosynthases (GS) with activated glycosyl donors or transglycosylation, and (4) enzymatic functionalization, particularly via oxidation by carbohydrate oxidoreductases and via amination by amine transaminases. Thus, this Perspective will first highlight enzymes that play a role in regulating the degree of polymerization and side group composition of hemicelluloses, and subsequently, it will explore enzymes that enhance cross-linking capabilities and incorporate novel chemical functionalities into saccharide structures. These enzymatic routes offer a precise way to tailor the properties of hemicelluloses for specific applications in biobased materials, contributing to the development of renewable alternatives to conventional materials derived from fossil fuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

An Experimental and Theoretical Study on the Formation of 2-Methylnaphthalene (C 11 H 10 /C 11 H 3 D 7 ) in the Reactions of the Para-Tolyl (C 7 H 7 ) and Para-Tolyl-d7 (C 7 D 7 ) with Vinylacetylene (C 4 H 4 )

We introduce for the very first time single collision experimental evidence that a methyl-substituted polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) – 2-methylnaphthalene – can be formed without an entrance barrier via indirect scattering dynamics through a bimolecular collision of two non-PAH reactants: the para-tolyl radical and vinylacetylene. Theory reflects that this reaction is initiated by the addition of the para-tolyl radical to either the terminal acetylene carbon (C 4 ) or a vinyl carbon (C 1 ) leading eventually to two distinct radical intermediates. Importantly, addition at C 1 was found to be barrierless via a van-der-Waals complex implying this mechanism can play a key role in forming methyl substituted PAHs in low temperature extreme environments such as the interstellar medium and hydrocarbon-rich atmospheres of planets and their moons in the outer Solar System. Both reaction pathways involve a sequence of isomerizations via hydrogen transfer, ring closure, and ring opening and final hydrogen dissociation through tight exit transition states to form 2-methylnaphthalene in overall exoergic processes. Less favorable pathways leading to monocyclic products are also found. Our report predict that reactions of substituted aromatic radicals can mechanistically deliver odd-numbered PAHs that are formed in significant quantities in the combustion of fossil fuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Regional Similarities and NO x -Related Increases in Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol in Summertime Southeastern United States

During the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements of submicron mass were collected at Look Rock (LRK), Tennessee, and Centreville (CTR), Alabama. Carbon monoxide and submicron sulfate and organic mass concentrations were 15–60% higher at CTR than at LRK, but their time series had moderate correlations (r ~ 0.5). However, NO x had no correlation (r = 0.08) between the two sites with nighttime-to-early-morning peaks 3–10 times higher at CTR than at LRK. Organic mass (OM) sources identified by FTIR Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) had three very similar factors at both sites: fossil fuel combustion-related organic aerosols, mixed organic aerosols, and biogenic organic aerosols (BOA). The BOA spectrum from FTIR is similar (cosine similarity > 0.6) to that of lab-generated particle mass from the photochemical oxidation of both isoprene and monoterpenes under high NO x conditions from chamber experiments. The BOA mass fraction was highest during the night at CTR but in the afternoon at LRK.AMS PMF resulted in two similar pairs of factors at both sites and a third nighttime NO x -related factor (33% of OM) at CTR but a daytime nitrate-related factor (28% of OM) at LRK. NO x was correlated with BOA and LO-OOA for NO x concentrations higher than 1 ppb at both sites, producing 0.5 ± 0.1 μg/m 3 for CTR-LO-OOA and 1.0 ± 0.3 μg/m 3 for CTR-BOA additional biogenic OM for each 1 ppb increase of NO x .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. Furthermore, the changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present‐day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near‐surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m −2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2‐4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m −2 . There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m −2 decade −1 ) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Variability in Local Carbon Dioxide Biomass Burning Sources Over Central and Eastern US Using Airborne In Situ Enhancement Ratios

We present observations of local enhancements in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from local emissions sources over three eastern US regions during four deployments of the Atmospheric Carbon Transport-America (ACT-America) campaign between summer 2016 and spring 2018. Local CO 2 emissions were characterized by carbon monoxide (CO) to CO 2 enhancement ratios (i.e., ΔCO/ΔCO 2 ) in air mass mixing observed during aircraft transects within the planetary boundary layer. By analyzing regional-scale variability of CO 2 enhancements as a function of ΔCO/ΔCO 2 enhancement ratios, observed relative contributions to CO 2 emissions were separated into fossil fuel and biomass burning (BB) regimes across regions and seasons. CO 2 emission contributions attributed to biomass burning (ΔCO/ΔCO 2 > 4%) were negligible during summer and fall in all regions but climbed to ∼9%–11% of observed combustion contributions in the South during winter and spring. Relative CO 2 fire emission trends matched observed winter and spring BB contributions, but conflictingly predicted similar levels of BB during the fall. Satellite fire data from MODIS and VIIRS suggested the use of higher spatial resolution fire data that might improve modeled BB emissions but were not able to explain the bulk of the discrepancy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meteorological Influences on Anthropogenic PM 2.5 in Future Climates: Species Level Analysis in the Community Earth System Model v2

Abstract Biomass and fossil fuel burning impact air quality by injecting fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and its precursors into the atmosphere, which poses serious threats to human health. However, the surface concentration of PM 2.5 depends not only on the magnitude of emissions, but also secondary production, transport, and removal. For example, in response to greenhouse gas driven warming, meteorological conditions that govern aerosol removal, primarily through rainfall and wet deposition, could shift in pattern, frequency, and intensity. This climate change driven process can impact air quality even without changes in aerosol emissions. In this experiment, we conduct new simulations by fixing aerosol emissions at present‐day levels in the Community Earth System Model Version 2, but increasing greenhouse gases through the 21st century. In our results, the changes in patterns and intensity of PM 2.5 are found to be associated with precipitation (via aerosol removal), temperature (via secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation), and moisture and clouds (via sulfate production). A decrease in wet day frequency (∼1.2% global mean) contributes to increases in the surface concentrations of black carbon, primary organic matter, and sulfate in many regions. This is offset in some regions by an upward vertical shift in the level where SOA forms, which contributes to higher column burden but lower surface concentration. These results highlight a need, using a variety of modeling tools, to continually reassess aerosol emissions regulations in response to anticipated climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗