Model forecasts and world observations of the ozone layer, 1960 - 1980
Theoretical and actual measurements of the decrease in global ozone are presented.
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Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core
The discovery of simple, theoretically sound upper limits for geomagnetic moments (dipole, quadrupole, etc.) provides a significant use of MAGSAT data, establishes useful constraints for future magnetic models, and bears strongly on the probable time required before the next polarity reversal can occur. The field models of MAGSAT data are of prime use and are highly suitable as supplied to date.
Benton, E. R.↗
Some experiments on the effect of remote sounding temperatures upon weather forecasting
A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.
Halem, M.↗
Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core
An additional approach is being taken to address the problem of how to decide where to truncate spherical harmonic representations of geomagnetic data. The idea is to simply evaluate some aspect of interest at successively higher levels of truncation and then to chose that value of truncation level (N) which gives the most reasonable appearance of convergence. The preliminary determination of the onset of relative numerical stability at a truncation level of N=7 in two independent studies is thought to be a potentially significant result of practical value for field modeling. It requires further substantiation and explanation before dissemination.
Benton, E. R.↗
A study of the extended-range forecasting problem blocking
Wavenumber frequency spectral analysis of a 90 day winter (Jan. 15 - April 14) wind field simulated by a climate experiment of the GLAS atmospheric circulation model is made using the space time Fourier analysis which is modified with Tukey's numerical spectral analysis. Computations are also made to examine how the model wave disturbances in the wavenumber frequency domain are maintained by nonlinear interactions. Results are compared with observation. It is found that equatorial easterlies do not show up in this climate experiment at 200 mb. The zonal kinetic energy and momentum transport of stationary waves are too small in the model's Northern Hemisphere. The wavenumber and frequency spectra of the model are generally in good agreement with observation. However, some distinct features of the model's spectra are revealed. The wavenumber spectra of kinetic energy show that the eastward moving waves of low wavenumbers have stronger zonal motion while the eastward moving waves of intermediate wavenumbers have larger meridional motion compared with observation. Furthermore, the eastward moving waves show a band of large spectral value in the medium frequency regime.
Chen, T. C.↗
Forecasting of Clear Air Turbulence using a Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency formulation
The results of several case studies of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) using the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) formulation are highlighted. The performance of this technique in resolving regions of documented CAT encounters is encouraging. Its operational adaptability seems particularly attractive in that the input data can be supplied by the currently operational Rawinsonde system. A CAT index is calculated deterministically, sensing synoptic-scale changes in static stability and vertical wind shear conducive for supporting meso-scale CAT layers. This index reveals volumes of the troposphere which act as 'source regions' of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. The results suggest that these regions are particularly efficient with respect to the synoptic/meso-scale energetical coupling necessary for supporting significantly turbulent layers. The output highlights specific regions of the atmosphere which can be interpreted operationally in terms of CAT-encounter probabilities.
Keller, J. L.↗
Mesoscale aspects of jet streak coupling and implications for the short term forecasting of severe convective storms
An analysis of a tornado outbreak in Wichita Falls, Texas was analyzed. The coupling of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks, leading to severe storm outbreaks is illustrated. The high resolution SESAME data sets indicate that mass and momentum adjustments which couple upper and lower tropospheric jets occur within a 3 to 6 hr time frame over a 100 to 500 km domain, and establish the role of isallobaric forcing in the storm development. It is suggested that the output rate of data from the existing 12 hr network be increased to provide better temporal resolution of wind, mass and moisture data.
Uccellini, L. W.↗
AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Corn/soybean decision logic development and testing
The development and testing of an analysis procedure which was developed to improve the consistency and objectively of crop identification using Landsat data is described. The procedure was developed to identify corn and soybean crops in the U.S. corn belt region. The procedure consists of a series of decision points arranged in a tree-like structure, the branches of which lead an analyst to crop labels. The specific decision logic is designed to maximize the objectively of the identification process and to promote the possibility of future automation. Significant results are summarized.
Dailey, C. L.↗
Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core
The magnetic determination of the depth of the core-mantle boundary using MAGSAT data is discussed. Refinements to the approach of using the pole-strength of Earth to evaluate the radius of the Earth's core-mantle boundary are reported. The downward extrapolation through the electrically conducting mantle was reviewed. Estimates of an upper bound for the time required for Earth's liquid core to overturn completely are presented. High order analytic approximations to the unsigned magnetic flux crossing the Earth's surface are also presented.
Benton, E. R.↗
AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Country summary report, Australia
Australia is one of the world's major growers and exporters of wheat and as such is one of the countries of interest in the AgRISTARS program which endeavors to develop technology to estimate crop production using aerospace remote sensing. A compilation of geographic, political, and agricultural information on Australia is presented. Also included is a summary of the aerospace remote sensing, meteorological, and ground-observed data which were collected with respect to Australia, as well as a summary of contacts between AgRISTARS and Australia personnel.
Henninger, D. L.↗
AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment
The crop identification procedures used performed were for spring small grains and are conducive to automation. The performance of the machine processing techniques shows a significant improvement over previously evaluated technology; however, the crop calendars require additional development and refinements prior to integration into automated area estimation technology. The integrated technology is capable of producing accurate and consistent spring small grains proportion estimates. Barley proportion estimation technology was not satisfactorily evaluated because LANDSAT sample segment data was not available for high density barley of primary importance in foreign regions and the low density segments examined were not judged to give indicative or unequvocal results. Generally, the spring small grains technology is ready for evaluation in a pilot experiment focusing on sensitivity analysis to a variety of agricultural and meteorological conditions representative of the global environment.
Payne, R. W.↗
Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core
Progress in the use of MAGSAT data to confirm that the radius of the Earth's core-mantle boundary can be accurately determined magnetically is reported. The MAGSAT data was used in conjunction with a high quality manfield model for epoch 1965. The unsigned flux linking the core and mantle of the Earth is considered to be a legitimate invariant for a span of time. The value from MAGSAT of this constant is 16.056 GWb (gigawebers).
Benton, E. R.↗
Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core
It was established that the total absolute magnetic flux crossing the core- mantle boundary has been a constant of the core motion for the last 50 years. This provides a scalar constraint that could be added to the geometric modelling procedure. The GSFC 8 8/80 model is being evaluated. The absolute magnetic flux linking the CMB to that model was plotted as a function of time during the span covered by the data, and increasing truncation level. The inclusion of the standard error of each Gauss coefficient derived from the statistics of fit in the GSFC 9/80 model is useful. The magnitude and sense (upwelling or downe welling) of vertical fluid motion adjacent to the core-mantle boundary was calculated using the model. Standard errors were found to be sufficiently small at all but one or two of the 40 or more critical points of B sub r. They do not nearly overlap the value gamma u/gamma r = 0. It is concluded that the core is upwelling and downwelling at an observationally detectable level.
Benton, E. R.↗
Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core
Accomplishments to date were summarized in three parts submitted for publication. Goddard models and MAGSAT data were used heavily in the investigation which address: (1) the sensitivity of selected geomagnetic properties to truncation level of spherical harmonic expansions; (2) the pole strength of the Earth from MAGSAT, and magnetic determination of the core radius; and (3) frozen flux upper limits to the MAGSAT geomagnetic coefficients and relative multipole indices for Earth.
Benton, E. R.↗
Communications to 2000 - A forecast of the demand and capacity of U.S. domestic communications satellites
The market demand for the U.S. domestic communications satellites accelerated in the late 70's, exceeding the capacity of the satellites currently in orbit. Satellite carriers have been authorized to build an additional 24 domsats. This paper examines the anticipated market demands, and the capability of the domsats to fulfill these demands. With various practical technical innovations, the domsats appear able to meet the expected market demands until the end of this century.
Fordyce, S. W.↗
Determining economic benefits of satellite data in short-range forecasting
The chances of enhanced short term weather predictions and economic benefits from the use of GOES satellite data were examined. Results for a meteorological consulting firm before and after the introduction of GOES data were chosen as the method, and monetary benefits were selected as the measure. Services were provided for use by road and street departments, commodities dealers, and marine clients of the consulting firm. The Man-computer Interactive Data Access Program (McIDAS) was employed to furnish 1/2 hour visual or IR imagery for remote access. The commodities clients reconnected the GOES real-time imagery once the study was completed, while the consulting firm, which was personnel and not equipment intensive, did not. Further development of the flexibility of access to the GOES data and improvements in the projected grids are indicated.
Suchman, D.↗
Eruption forecast for Krafla caldera
Based on measurements and timings of 19 previous activity cycles of the Krafla caldera in Iceland that were previously reported, patterns are noted that have apparently not been described before and that appear to offer additional predictive possibilities for the time, place, and extent of near-future events at Krafla. A plot of elapsed time for each deflation event in the current Krafla rifting episode taken from Bjornsson et al. (1977, 1979) suggests that the next event should occur before the end of May, 1982. Comparison of the sites of main fissuring suggests that the next event will be close to or within the caldera, and that an eruption is to be anticipated. The trend for erupted lava area indicates that the next eruption will be larger than its predecessors.
Wood, C. A.↗
Non-urban mobile radio market demand forecast
A national nonmetropolitan land mobile traffic model for 1990-2000 addresses user classes, density classes, traffic mix statistics, distance distribution, geographic distribution, price elasticity, and service quality elasticity. Traffic demands for business, special industrial, and police were determined on the basis of surveys in 73 randomly selected nonurban counties. The selected services represent 69% of total demand. The results were extrapolated to all services in the non-SMSA areas of the contiguous United States. Radiotelephone services were considered separately. Total non-SMSA mobile radio demand (one way) estimates are given. General functional requirements include: hand portability, privacy, reduction of blind spots, two way data transmission, position location, slow scan imagery.
Castruccio, P. A.↗