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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

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DOE OSTI2025

Federated Learning with Frequency Estimation for Smart Meter Systems

Federated learning (FL) is a powerful framework that enables multiple distributed clients to collaborate without the need to transfer their data to a central server. However, FL does not inherently guarantee the level of privacy that clients often require. In our review of recent studies on privacy-enhancing techniques in FL, we found that frequency estimation (FE) methods remain underexplored. To address this gap, we developed and integrated FE techniques on the client side, further examining the effects of incorporating an adaptive range and a shuffled model. We also analyzed the impact of varying hyper-parameters on privacy preservation. Our results provide clear guidance on the algorithms and configurations that are most effective for enhancing privacy in FL, particularly when using long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures.

Kotevska, Olivera [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000316772243)↗

DOE OSTI2022

New tool for kinematic regime estimation in semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering

We introduce a new phenomenological tool based on momentum region indicators to guide the analysis and interpretation of semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering measurements. The new tool, referred to as “affinity”, is devised to help visualize and quantify the proximity of any experimental kinematic bin to a particular hadron production region, such as that associated with transverse momentum dependent factorization. We apply the affinity estimator to existing HERMES and COMPASS data and expected data from Jefferson Lab and the future Electron-Ion Collider. We also provide an interactive notebook based on Machine Learning for fast evaluation of affinity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laser powder bed fusion parameter estimation with k-NN

Abstract Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) is a technique within additive manufacturing that uses a high power density laser to build parts from fused powdered metal alloy. This technology is well equipped to produce complex parts with otherwise impossible features, such as hidden voids or lattice structures. Alongside capability, reliability and quality are key characteristics considered when choosing a manufacturing method, and these are gaining attention as this method becomes more prevalent in industry. One main indicator of a stable L-PBF process is consistent melt pool geometry, and the properties of which are likely to determine the quality of the part produced. As computing power and sensing technologies become more advanced, this melt pool geometry could be studied in real time. This work addresses the challenge by leveraging a k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) model to identify key features within melt pool imagery and predict the energy density. The k-NN model was trained on data provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Data preprocessing was performed on the images to extract features that were used in the k-NN model. This approach was used to accurately infer the energy density of unseen layers within the same part. The algorithm was subsequently tested with unique scan strategies and found to reasonably estimate the energy density of different parts. A fivefold cross validation found the algorithm to be consistently predicting the class of 91.4% of the in situ melt pool images.

Jung, Patrick (ORCID:0000000267890859)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient estimation of the modified Gromov–Hausdorff distance between unweighted graphs

Abstract Gromov–Hausdorff distances measure shape difference between the objects representable as compact metric spaces, e.g. point clouds, manifolds, or graphs. Computing any Gromov–Hausdorff distance is equivalent to solving an NP-hard optimization problem, deeming the notion impractical for applications. In this paper we propose a polynomial algorithm for estimating the so-called modified Gromov–Hausdorff (mGH) distance, a relaxation of the standard Gromov–Hausdorff (GH) distance with similar topological properties. We implement the algorithm for the case of compact metric spaces induced by unweighted graphs as part of Python library , and demonstrate its performance on real-world and synthetic networks. The algorithm finds the mGH distances exactly on most graphs with the scale-free property. We use the computed mGH distances to successfully detect outliers in real-world social and computer networks.

Oles, Vladyslav (ORCID:0000000188727463)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Gaussian process metamodels and sequential designs for noisy level set estimation

Abstract We consider the problem of learning the level set for which a noisy black-box function exceeds a given threshold. To efficiently reconstruct the level set, we investigate Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. Our focus is on strongly stochastic simulators, in particular with heavy-tailed simulation noise and low signal-to-noise ratio. To guard against noise misspecification, we assess the performance of three variants: (i) GPs with Student- t observations; (ii) Student- t processes (TPs); and (iii) classification GPs modeling the sign of the response. In conjunction with these metamodels, we analyze several acquisition functions for guiding the sequential experimental designs, extending existing stepwise uncertainty reduction criteria to the stochastic contour-finding context. This also motivates our development of (approximate) updating formulas to efficiently compute such acquisition functions. Our schemes are benchmarked by using a variety of synthetic experiments in 1–6 dimensions. We also consider an application of level set estimation for determining the optimal exercise policy of Bermudan options in finance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The effective number of parameters in kernel density estimation

We devise a new formula for measuring the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) in kernel density estimation (KDE). Starting from the orthogonal polynomial sequence (OPS) expansion for the ratio of the empirical to the oracle density, we show how convolution with the kernel leads to a new OPS with respect to which one may express the resulting KDE. The expansion coefficients of the two OPS systems can then be related via a kernel sensitivity matrix, which leads to a natural oracle definition of EDoF through the trace operator. Asymptotic properties of the (empirical) plug-in EDoF are worked out through influence functions, and connections with other empirical EDoFs are established. Minimization of Kullback-Leibler divergence is investigated as an alternative to integrated squared error based bandwidth selection rules, yielding a new normal scale rule. The methodology, which arises from a proper oracle formulation and is not restricted to convolution kernels, suggests the possibility of a new bandwidth selection rule based on an information criterion such as AIC.

bandwidth selection↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microstructure-Based Estimation of Strength and Ductility Distributions for $\alpha +\beta $ Titanium Alloys

Titanium alloys are processed to develop a wide range of microstructure configurations and therefore material properties. While these properties are typically measured experimentally, a framework for property prediction could greatly enhance alloy design and manufacturing. In this work, a microstructure-sensitive framework is presented for the prediction of strength and ductility as well as estimates of the bounds in variability for these properties. The framework explicitly considers distributions of microstructure via new approaches for instantiation of structure in synthetic samples. The parametric evaluation strategy, including the finite element simulation package FEpX, is used to create and test virtual polycrystalline samples to evaluate the variability bounds of mechanical properties in Ti-6Al-4V. Critical parameters for the property evaluation framework are provided by measurements of single crystal properties and advanced characterization of microstructure and slip system strengths in 2D and 3D. Property distributions for yield strength and ductility are presented, along with the validation and verification steps undertaken. Comparisons between strain localization and slip activity in virtual samples and in experimental grain-scale strain measurements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coaxial color channel focus evaluation to estimate standoff height in directed energy deposition additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) is an additive manufacturing process that is being rapidly adopted by industry and is well suited for the fabrication of complex components in a variety of metal alloys. In laser cladding systems such as DED, powder is blown in a stream to a metal substrate coincident with a laser necessary to deposit molten metal with 3D spatial control. The focus of both the laser and the powder stream are crucial, and best deposition occurs at a predetermined standoff height between the build surface and the print head. Generally, no monitoring of this distance is implemented in commercial DED systems. Due to potential over or under building, the standoff height often changes over time but tends to self-correct. However, inexpensive and minimally intrusive methods to identify optimal standoff are required to provide real-time control to maintain the optimal distance. The present work explores the quantification of the focus of the three-color channels of a coaxial camera to determine the standoff height. An experiment was performed in which a 254 mm wall is built and the standoff height, initially 5.0 mm below the optimal position, was then intentionally increased every 25.4 mm of wall length by an amount of 1.0 mm to a final position 7.0 mm above optimal. Computer vision is demonstrated to monitor the amount of focus in each color band and estimate standoff distance. Finally, a response can be calculated in under 40 ms using simple hardware and can work in most laser-based DED systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A quality-agnostic combinatoric cost estimation model for large-format directed energy deposition metal additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) processes are amenable to synergistic combination into multi-process AM systems due to similar requirements for automation and energy sources. This work analyzes the economic performance of such DED AM systems from a quality-agnostic combinatoric standpoint with a model that calculates lowest-cost system combinations based on part geometry and process performance metrics. Common DED AM systems research focuses on a single process and does not consider the process, system, and application in the context of all possible system combinations (e.g., the combined set of process selection(s), motion system(s), and process hardware), leading to limited applicability of the resulting DED AM systems to cost-sensitive components such as those found in energy generation applications. The model developed herein incorporates the capital, material, and energy costs associated with DED AM system combinations into a predictive tool for estimating part and system cost, the output of which is intended to guide deployment of finite research and development resources towards DED AM system combinations with the lowest costs and greatest likelihood of economic impact. The DED AM systems identified by this framework may enable domestic production of the large conventionally cast and forged components necessary for energy generation.

Shanafield, Alexandra [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Deep Neural Network for Simultaneous Estimation of b Jet Energy and Resolution

We describe a method to obtain point and dispersion estimates for the energies of jets arising from b quarks produced in proton–proton collisions at an energy of $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV} $ at the CERN LHC. The algorithm is trained on a large sample of simulated b jets and validated on data recorded by the CMS detector in 2017 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41 $\,\text {fb}^{-1}$. A multivariate regression algorithm based on a deep feed-forward neural network employs jet composition and shape information, and the properties of reconstructed secondary vertices associated with the jet. The results of the algorithm are used to improve the sensitivity of analyses that make use of b jets in the final state, such as the observation of Higgs boson decay to $\hbox {b}\bar{\hbox {b}}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of micro-Hall-Petch coefficients for prismatic slip system in Mg-4Al as a function of grain boundary parameters

Grain size strengthening, referred to as the Hall-Petch effect, is a common strategy to improve the yield strength of magnesium (Mg) alloys. Several experimental studies have reported that the Hall-Petch slope strongly depends on the texture of the alloy. This effect arises from altering grain boundaries (GBs) resistance to different slip systems to transfer across adjacent grains. The grain boundary barrier strength of certain grain boundaries to basal slip, referred to as basal micro-Hall-Petch, was investigated in the previous work. Here in this study, the micro-Hall-Petch coefficient values for the prismatic slip $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ in Mg-4Al and their correlation with the grain boundary parameters were investigated. An experimental method was developed to initiate the prismatic slip band at low-stress levels. High-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) was used to measure the residual stress tensor, from which the resolved shear stress ahead of blocked prismatic slip bands was computed for seven different grain boundaries. $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values for each individual GB were calculated by coupling the stress profile information with a continuum dislocation pile-up model. The $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values vary from 0.138 MPa.m 1/2 to 0.685 MPa. m 1/2 which are almost three times larger than the calculated values for the basal micro-Hall-Petch. The $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values were correlated with the GB parameters, and a functional relationship depending on the two most effective angles, the angle between the traces of the slip planes on the GB plane ($\phi$) and the angle between incoming and outgoing slip directions (κ), was proposed to estimate the Hall-Petch barrier for prismatic slip system. The work provides coefficients that can be supplied as input to crystal plasticity models to couple the effect of texture and grain size effectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Introducing the SLICE Method for estimating pebble-bed reactor inventories at equilibrium operation with SCALE

This paper introduces the SCALE Leap-In method for Cores at Equilibrium (SLICE) for estimating pebble-bed reactor equilibrium core isotopic inventories using capabilities in the SCALE code system, requiring only a small computational cluster and a few days of computation. This method uses an iterative approach that relies on (1) a surrogate spectrum model that captures spatial and time-dependent spectral conditions, (2) a multi-pass model that captures the pebble’s evolving nuclide inventory as a function of location and time in the core, and (3) a full-core model that captures the core’s spatial neutron flux distribution. The SLICE approach is applied to a generic fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor, demonstrating fuel inventory convergence through nuclide concentration inspection across iterations and comparisons for core realizations with varying discretizations. Results agree within ~5% with another state-of-the-art code, with differences attributed to input parameter or modeling assumption variations in the equilibrium generation methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Market Feedback Framework for Improved Estimates of the Arbitrage Value of Energy Storage Using Price-Taker Models

Price-taker (PT) models are often used to assess the potential value or revenue of energy arbitrage opportunities for energy storage in wholesale markets. But as greater amounts of energy storage are deployed on the grid, current PT models fail to predict the effects that energy storage itself can have on market prices. This can lead to an overestimation of the economic value of storage and an inability to capture price suppression. In this paper, we propose the use of a modified PT model to simulate the impact of increased storage deployment on energy prices and the resulting impact on revenue. Our method uses a gradient-boosting regressor to estimate the impact on prices, and we apply our method on historical price data from the PJM and California Independent System Operator wholesale markets. We use this approach to explore possible causes of electricity price suppression that occur from storage capacity additions, which is generally not possible with PT models.

arbitrage↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Novel Heat Pump Model for Estimating Economic Viability and Barriers of Heat Pumps in Dairy Applications in the United States

Heat pumps represent an important opportunity for energy savings and decarbonization. This work investigates the techno-economic performance of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) for use in the U.S. dairy industry. The studied heat pump performs a 50 °C temperature lift on a waste heat stream of cleaning water and applies the upgraded heat stream to a fluid milk pasteurization process. This work involved the creation of a HTHP model that estimated the coefficient of performance (COP), internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PBP), and emissions saved for a heat pump replacing a natural gas boiler. Capital costs, operations, and maintenance (O&M) cost, heat pump lifetime, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and a cost of carbon were varied to perform a parametric study on the factors affecting the break-even price of HTHPs. The results show that HTHP economics are highly sensitive to COP and energy price environment, and less sensitive to capital and O&M cost variance, leading to a large scatter of positive and negative NPVs based on U.S. location. PBPs demonstrate a defined threshold, based on energy price environment, below which favorable two-to-three-year PBPs predominate. This work is focused on the U.S. dairy industry, but international application in relation to fossil vs. electricity price regimes. Heat pumps have seen wider adoption in regions with a high ratio of fossil energy to electricity prices ($/MMBTU vs. $/kWh). The U.S. has plentiful natural gas resulting in lower fossil energy prices which has reduced heat pump adoption. This paper identifies potential first mover industries for HTHP adoption and their associated price regimes even in regions with lower ratios of fossil energy to electricity prices that exist many places globally.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for estimating X-ray machine output through measurement and simulation

We report ball grid arrays are increasingly being applied in the electronics industry and may require X-ray inspection to ensure the integrity and correct placement of solder pins. However, as the architecture of integrated circuits continues to narrow while simultaneously growing more complex, the risk of electronic failure due to radiation damage increases. While medical X-ray devices have been held to high standards and are repeatedly shown to be well characterized, devices used for electronic inspection are often lacking detailed characterization. This study presents unique methods to solve for important properties in X-ray inspection devices such as source to object distance and energy spectrum. This information can then be applied to Monte Carlo models to achieve better overall dose estimates to electronics, which will lead to superior manufactured products. Since X-ray devices can vary greatly in source characteristics, this work investigates spectral measurement and Monte Carlo representation of three X-ray devices. For a Philips SRO 33 100 medical diagnostic device, the spectral output followed expected trends given by the prediction software SpekCalc and Spektr. For the Dage XD7500NT, direct measurement showed a spectral artifact that through the use of Gafchromic films, was shown to be a contributing effect in the dose output. For the Rad Source RS1800, a high powered irradiation device, direct spectral measurement was not achieved. However, a Monte Carlo model using an assumed spectra was found to match ion chamber measurements to a high degree.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale modeling of packed-bed microwave reactors and estimation of intrinsic materials' permittivity

Modeling of packed-bed microwave reactors relies on an accurate representation of particle size, shape, and distribution within the bed, as well as the particles' dielectric properties. The measured permittivity of microwave susceptors (powders or structured materials) depends on the geometric features of the particles and the porosity of the bed, as well as the specific form factor of a structured material. These are effective properties and cannot be used to analyze other reactor configurations unless the geometric effects are removed. Therefore, we introduce a methodology for extracting the intrinsic particle permittivity from experimentally measured effective permittivity by combining cavity-based measurements with multiscale simulations and machine learning. Further, we develop the first multiscale model of packed-bed microwave reactors that incorporate particle effects (geometric features, random packing, and particle contact). This approach bridges macroscopic observables with mesoscopic physics, enabling analysis of local hotspots, arcing, and contact effects that control reactor performance. Using polymer-based spherical activated carbon (PBSAC) and silicon carbide (SiC) as examples, we demonstrate that the inferred particle permittivity is consistent with independent experimental heating profiles we collect from microwave reactors without adjustable parameters. Finally, this methodology establishes a foundation for predictive, multiscale design of microwave packed-bed reactors that explicitly accounts for particle-scale effects, enabling the estimation of intrinsic permittivity for the first time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating viscoelastic compliance of desiccating cementitious materials using drying prism tests

Highlights: • Determining relative humidity and degree of reaction of desiccating cementitious materials via an integrated method • Extracting moisture diffusion coefficient of cement mortar using the mass loss data of the prism specimens • Estimating uniaxial viscoelastic compliance of cement mortar using the shrinkage strain data of the prism specimens An integrated modeling approach to determining internal relative humidity and degree of reaction of desiccating cementitious materials has been developed. By simultaneously accounting for both self-desiccation and external drying, the model is capable of predicting the evolution of material properties of desiccating cementitious materials. Using the mass loss data of the prism specimens, the moisture diffusion coefficient of a nonlinear model for cement mortar was determined. Additionally, a previous poroviscoelastic shrinkage model was modified and extended. Through comparison of predicted and measured axial strain of the prism specimens, the viscoelastic compliance of cement mortar was extracted. The present work revealed that it is possible to use a simple drying prism test to fit the moisture diffusion coefficient and creep compliance of cementitious materials, though the comparison of the extracted viscoelastic compliance with measured compliance was only reasonable if the outer layer of the drying mortar was presumed to have microcracking.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗