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At least 1,117 records · Page 62
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Black Carbon Deposited in Hariqin Glacier of the Central Tibetan Plateau Record Changes in the Emission from Eurasia

Black carbon (BC), by the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, has profound effects on climate change and glacier retreat in industrial eras. In the present study, we report refractory BC (rBC) in an ice core spanning 1850–2014, retrieved from the Hariqin Glacier of the Tanggula Mountains in the central Tibetan Plateau, measured using a single particle soot photometer (SP2). The rBC concentration shows a three-fold increase since the 1950s. The mean rBC concentration was 0.71±0.52 ng mL-1 during 1850s–1940s and 2.11±1.60 ng mL-1 during 1950s–2010s. The substantial increase in rBC since the 1950s is consistent with rBC ice core records from the Tibetan Plateau and Eastern Europe. According to the predominant atmospheric circulation patterns over the glacier and timing of changes in regional emissions, the post-1950 amplification of rBC concentration in the central Tibetan Plateau most likely reflects increases in emissions in Eastern Europe, former USSR, the Middle East, and South Asia. Despite the low-level background rBC concentrations in the ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau, the present study highlights a remarkable increase in anthropogenic BC emissions in recent decades and the consequent influence on glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau.

Black carbon, Ice core, Tibetan Plateau, Industria↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution of rare earth elements in fly ash derived from the combustion of Illinois Basin coals

This study examined rare earth element (REE) trends for Illinois Basin coal-sourced fly ashes, with the goal of understanding the elemental composition and resource potential for various fly ash fractions. Illinois Basin coals have a high volatile C through A bituminous rank with a moderate ash content (slightly>12% ash (dry basis)), about 3% sulfur, and, in general, lower concentrations of hazardous and other trace elements than many Central Appalachian coals. Fly ash from the combustion of Illinois Basin coals tends to have a high Fe 2 O 3 content owing to the amount of pyrite in the feed coals. The rare earth element (REE) concentrations in Illinois Basin coal-sourced fly ashes are less than that for fly ashes from the combustion of Central Appalachian coals. The Upper continental crust-corrected fly ashes show an H-type enrichment, a positive Eu N /Eu N * , and, in some cases, a sharp Gd peak. For comparison, a suite of fly ashes from the combustion of a blend of eastern Kentucky coals had an H-type enrichment, a positive Eu N /Eu N * , but only a minimal Gd peak. In contrast, fly ash from the combustion of the Fire Clay coal, a REE-rich coal, had a negative Eu N /Eu N * and a sharp Gd peak. Finally, these results highlight the importance of feed coal composition on trace element contents of respective combustion fly ash fractions and also the unique REE enrichment patterns of the Illinois Basin fly ashes relative to the better studied fly ashes of eastern Kentucky and Central Appalachia.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2014

Definitive Reirradiation for Locoregionally Recurrent Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Proton Beam Therapy or Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy: Predictors of High-Grade Toxicity and Survival Outcomes

Purpose: Intrathoracic recurrence of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after initial treatment remains a dominant cause of death. We report our experience using proton beam therapy and intensity modulated radiation therapy for reirradiation in such cases, focusing on patterns of failure, criteria for patient selection, and predictors of toxicity. Methods and Materials: A total of 102 patients underwent reirradiation for intrathoracic recurrent NSCLC at a single institution. All doses were recalculated to an equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions (EQD2). All patients had received radiation therapy for NSCLC (median initial dose of 70 EQD2 Gy), with median interval to reirradiation of 17 months and median reirradiation dose of 60.48 EQD2 Gy. Median follow-up time was 6.5 months (range, 0-72 months). Results: Ninety-nine patients (97%) completed reirradiation. Median local failure-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and overall survival times were 11.43 months (range, 8.6-22.66 months), 11.43 months (range, 6.83-23.84 months), and 14.71 (range, 10.34-20.56 months), respectively. Toxicity was acceptable, with rates of grade ≥3 esophageal toxicity of 7% and grade ≥3 pulmonary toxicity of 10%. Of the patients who developed local failure after reirradiation, 88% had failure in either the original or the reirradiation field. Poor local control was associated with T4 disease, squamous histology, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score >1. Concurrent chemotherapy improved DMFS, but T4 disease was associated with poor DMFS. Higher T status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥1, squamous histology, and larger reirradiation target volumes led to worse overall survival; receipt of concurrent chemotherapy and higher EQD2 were associated with improved OS. Conclusions: Intensity modulated radiation therapy and proton beam therapy are options for treating recurrent non-small cell lung cancer. However, rates of locoregional recurrence and distant metastasis are high, and patients should be selected carefully to maximize the benefit of additional aggressive local therapy while minimizing the risk of adverse side effects.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metabolic responses to increased temperatures in three semi-aquatic turtle species from the southeastern United States

Physiological maintenance of ectotherms is largely dependent on temperature. Abrupt changes in environmental conditions can cause shifts in energy budgets, with higher temperatures requiring more energy be devoted to maintenance functions, making less energy available for other activities. As a group, freshwater turtles are of conservation concern; thus, it is important to understand their physiological responses to temperature shifts, particularly given current climate change predictions. Here, we quantified metabolic rates (MR) for three species of semi-aquatic turtles that vary in their degree of terrestriality and propensity to aestivate: chicken turtles (Deirochelys reticularia), eastern mud turtles (Kinosternon subrubrum), and eastern musk turtles (Sternotherus odoratus). Metabolic trials were performed using a flow-through respirometer at three environmentally-relevant temperatures: 25°C, 30°C, and 35°C. As expected, MRs of turtles were significantly and positively associated with increases in mass and temperature. Pairwise comparisons revealed that D. reticularia exhibited significantly higher oxygen consumption rates (VO 2 ) relative to K. subrubrum, which had significantly higher VO 2 than S. odoratus. The combination of higher metabolic rates, the tendency to terrestrially aestivate, and declining quantity of high quality thermal habitats may place some semi-aquatic turtles at a disadvantage when considering future climate scenarios. Our findings, when combined with knowledge of other ecological traits, may be a useful tool for predicting relative sensitivities of turtle species to predicted climate change, particularly those species inhabiting seasonal wetlands.

Sternotherus odoratus↗
DOE OSTI2019

Visualizing feedstock siting in biomass production: Tradeoffs between economic and water quality objectives

New domestic, renewable energy resources must be considered to increase energy security in the U.S. Ethanol production through second-generation (cellulosic) feedstocks will help the U.S. meet the legislative Renewable Fuel Standard, which mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022. Yet, conversion of cropland to meet the cellulosic feedstock production goals may have unforeseen environmental consequences. Here, using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) outputs and National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) economic data, we conducted a spatial optimization of bioenergy feedstock introduction into the Arkansas White-Red River Basin based on water quality and economic objectives, subject to constraints on total land conversion. Results displayed tradeoffs between bioenergy yield for three crops (switchgrass, sorghum and poplar) and land rent objectives. Optimal solutions tended to prioritize conversion of land in eastern AWR subbasins where yield and water quality objective improvements were greatest. A small number of subbasins contributed to basin-wide water quality improvements, whereas subbasins contributing to economic benefits were more spatially dispersed, indicating that water quality responses are more likely to constrain feedstock placement. Biomass production targets can be met vianumerous spatial arrangements, whereas marginal improvement in water quality objectives can best be achieved by selectively siting perennial feedstocks in the eastern half of the region.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic ice-ocean interactions in an 8-to-2 kilometer resolution global model

In the last decades, the Arctic climate has changed dramatically, with the loss of multiyear sea ice one of the clearest consequences. These changes have occurred on relatively rapid timescales, and both accurate short-term Arctic prediction (e.g., 10 days to three months) and climate projection of future Arctic scenarios present ongoing challenges. Here we describe a representation of the Arctic ocean and sea ice in a ultrahigh resolution simulation in which the horizontal grid mesh reduces from 8 km at the equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) for the years 2017-2020. We find the simulation reproduces observed distributions of seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration realistically, although concentration is biased low in the spring and summer and low biases in thickness are found in the central and eastern basins in the fall. Volume, fresh water, and heat transports through key passages are realistic, lying within observationally determined ranges. Climatological comparisons reveal that the UH8to2 Atlantic Water is shallower, warmer, and saltier than the World Ocean Atlas 2018 climatology for 2005-2017 in the eastern basin. Our analysis suggests that these biases, combined with a lack of stratification in the upper 100 m of the simulated ocean, contribute to the winter biases in modeled sea ice thickness. This relationship between biases in the sea ice and ocean points to a potential positive feedback within the model, illuminating challenges for long term model predictive power in a changing Arctic climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spatiotemporal dynamics of nitrogen dioxide pollution and urban development: Satellite observations over China, 2005–2016

China experienced rapid urbanization and industrialization in recent years, which resulted in large increases of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particularly in urban areas. We analyze the spatiotemporal variations of the vertical column densities (VCDs) of tropospheric NO2 with the level of urban development across China during the period 2005-2016. Nighttime light (NTL) data are applied as a proxy for urban development to investigate the relationship between NO, pollution and urban development. Both NO2 column data and NTL data are observed by satellite measurements. The annual mean of NO2 VCDs is presented on a grid basis. The average annual variations of NO2 VCDs and NTL value are detected for all 341 prefectural cities. Two-thirds of the cities reached their peak NO2 pollution level around 2010-2012, and decreased afterward. About 10% of the western cities kept on increasing their NO2 levels until 2016. All cities are classified into four categories with respect to the average annual variations of NO2/NTL in 2005-2010, and 2011-2016. Approximately 62% of the cities turned the average annual variations of NO2/NTL from positive to negative. 19% of the cities are in the positive-positive category and 11% of the cities are in the negative-negative category. The remaining 8% of the cities changed their ratios from negative to positive. We summarize the national air pollution regulations, and our results show the effectiveness of the regulations for most eastern China cities. This work can help to design more efficient regional emission reduction policies with sustainable development.

nighttime light data↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constructing a spatiotemporally coherent long-term PM2.5 concentration dataset over China during 1980–2019 using a machine learning approach

The lack of long-term observations and satellite retrievals of health-damaging fine particulate matter in China has demanded the estimates of historical PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations. This study constructs a gridded near-surface PM 2.5 concentration dataset across China covering 1980–2019 using the space-time random forest model with atmospheric visibility observations and other auxiliary data. The modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations are in excellent agreement with ground measurements during 2015–2019, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and mean relative error of 12%. Besides the atmospheric visibility which explains 30% of total importance of variables in the model, both emissions and meteorological conditions are also essential factors affecting PM2.5 predictions. From 1980 to 2014, the model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations increased constantly with the maximum growth rate of 5–10 µg/m3/decade over eastern China. Due to the clean air actions, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased effectively at a rate over 50 µg/m 3 /decade in the North China Plain and 20–50 µg/m 3 /decade over eastern China during 2014–2019. The newly generated dataset of 1-degree gridded PM 2.5 concentrations for the past 40 years across China provides a useful means for investigating interannual and decadal environmental and climate impacts related to aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗
DOE OSTI2018

Structural Control on Downdip Locking Extent of the Himalayan Megathrust

Here, geologic reconstructions of the Main Himalayan Thrust in Nepal show a laterally extensive midcrustal ramp, hypothesized to form the downdip boundary of interseismic locking. Using a recent compilation of interseismic GPS velocities and a simplified model of fault coupling, we estimate the width of coupling across Nepal using a series of two-dimensional transects. We find that the downdip width of fault coupling increases smoothly from 70 to 90 km in eastern Nepal to 100–110 km in central Nepal, then narrows again in western Nepal. The inferred coupling transition is closely aligned with geologic reconstructions of the base of the midcrustal ramp in central and eastern Nepal, but in western Nepal, the data suggest that the location is intermediate between two proposed ramp locations. The result for western Nepal implies either an anomalous coupling transition that occurs along a shallowly dipping portion of the fault or that both ramps may be partially coupled and that a proposed crustal-scale duplexing process may be active during the interseismic period. We also find that the models require a convergence rate of 15.5 ± 2 mm/year throughout Nepal, reducing the geodetic moment accumulation rate by up to 30% compared with earlier models, partially resolving an inferred discrepancy between geodetic and paleoseismic estimates of moment release across the Himalaya.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Drizzle and Turbulence below closed cellular marine stratocumulus clouds

Drizzle is ubiquitous in marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds with much of it evaporating before reaching the surface. Ten days of observations made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site during closed cellular stratocumulus cloud conditions are used to characterize drizzle below the cloud base and its impact on the boundary layer turbulence. Cloud and drizzle micro- and macro-physical properties were retrieved by combining the data from vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer. On average the drizzle shafts were 28.14 km wide, with cloud base rain rate and modal diameter of 1.26 mm day-1 and 145.26 µm respectively. The rain rate at the surface was negligible yielding an average diabatic cooling of -30.60 Wm-2 in the sub-cloud layer. The LWP and turbulence within the boundary layer increased with an increase in the cloud top radiative cooling, however none of these variables exhibited any relationship with cloud base rain rate. For a similar amount of radiative cooling at the cloud top, the average variance of vertical velocity in the sub-cloud layer was about 10% lower during strongly precipitating conditions as compared to lightly precipitating conditions. The reduction in the variance of vertical velocity due to drizzle evaporation was primarily confined to the upper half of the sub-cloud layer and was due reduction in the strengths of the downdrafts. Collectively our results show substantial impact of drizzle evaporation on boundary layer turbulence, necessitating its accurate representation in the Earth System Models.

drizzle↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding the Role of Tropical Moisture in Atmospheric Rivers

There has been a long-standing debate about whether tropical moisture export (TME) or local moisture convergence play the dominant role in the development and strength of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). In this work, we quantify the contribution of TME to 29 simulated extreme ARs that affected the U.S. Northwest Coast by “tagging” tropical moisture using water vapor tracers in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. From a case study with strong TME, we find three mechanisms by which TME can contribute to AR strength: direct contribution of moisture, indirect contributions via thermodynamic feedbacks and indirect contributions via synoptic-scale dynamic feedbacks. Focusing on these processes, we divide the 29 simulated ARs into two groups (>25% of TME contribution to inland precipitation as TME-ARs and <25% as NTME-ARs) and find that TME-ARs are characterized by stronger pre-cold-frontal low-level jets and stronger warm air advection. Notably, the ARs with the greatest 2-day precipitation are found to be TME-ARs but with <50% TME contributions, indicating a more dominant role of indirect enhancement of local moisture convergence due to TME than the direct moisture contribution supplying precipitation.

Hu, Huancui↗
DOE OSTI2019

Soil Respiration Variability and Correlation Across a Wide Range of Temporal Scales

Abstract The high temporal variability of the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO 2 flux (soil respiration, R S ) has been studied at hourly to multiannual time scales but remains less well understood than R S spatial variability. How R S fluxes vary and are autocorrelated at various time lags has practical implications for sampling and more fundamentally for our understanding of its abiotic and biotic underlying mechanisms. We examined the variability, correlation, and sampling requirements of R S over a wide range of temporal scales in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Maryland, USA, using both automated (temporally continuous, N = 30,036 over 10 months) and survey (spatially diverse, temporally sparse, N = 1,912 over 17 months) data. Data from a global R S database were also used to examine interannual variability in comparable forests. The coefficient of variability of successive measurements generally varied from the minute (median coefficient of variation 16%) to hourly and daily (11–12%) time scales. Successive R S values measured at a given collar exhibited a strong hour‐to‐hour correlation ( r = 0.931) and a moderate correlation at a 2‐hr lag (0.289); day‐to‐day (i.e., 24 hr lag) hourly observations were uncorrelated. Daily R S means were well correlated at a 1‐day lag ( r = 0.856) but not at any further time lag. In a linear mixed‐effects model predicting R S , soil temperature and moisture exerted consistently strong effects regardless of time scale, and model coefficient of variability was generally high (>80%). These results provide new opportunities to explore the drivers and variability of R S fluxes, quantify sampling requirements, and improve error propagation.

Bond‐Lamberty, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year -1 (1Tg = 10 12 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH 4 year -1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of -34 to -46 Tg CH 4 year -1 , we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH 4 year -1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric River Lifecycle Responses to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract We investigate how the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical subseasonal variability, modulates the lifecycle of cool‐season North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs). When the enhanced (suppressed) convection center is located over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific), more AR events originate over eastern Asia and with fewer over the subtropical northern Pacific. When the enhanced (suppressed) convection is over the western Pacific (Indian Ocean), the opposite changes occur, with more AR events originate over the subtropical northern Pacific and fewer over eastern Asia. Dynamical processes involving anomalous MJO wind and seasonal mean moisture are found to be the dominant factors impacting these variations in AR origins. The MJO‐related anomalous geopotential height patterns are also shown to modulate the propagation of the AR events. These MJO–AR lifecycle relationships are further supported by model simulations.

Zhou, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Leading Modes of Asian Summer Monsoon Variability as Pulses of Atmospheric Energy Flow

Monsoon rainfall anomalies are often organized into dynamical modes that are more predictable than rainfall at specific locations. Here a linear response function (LRF) is constructed to extract the neutral modes (NM) of the dynamical atmospheric system and their optimal forcing that govern precipitation variability, providing a dynamical underpinning for the empirically derived, recurrent rainfall patterns. The leading mode (NM1) features a shift in the Atlantic ITCZ, a drying over the Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent, and a “South-Flood-North Drought (SFND)” pattern over eastern China, a pattern inferable from changes in the atmospheric energy flow forced by the corresponding optimal forcing and further enhanced by the water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Moreover, the slow evolving component of the NM1 in response to CO2 forcing can be skillfully predicted by running the ocean heat uptake through the LRF, implicating a deterministic ocean dynamic source for the NM1-like trend under climate warming.

monsoon mode of variability, EBM, climate change, ↗