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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Dynamic infrared gas analysis from longleaf pine fuel beds burned in a wind tunnel: observation of phenol in pyrolysis and combustion phases

Pyrolysis is the first step in a series of chemical and physical processes that produce flammable organic gases from wildland fuels that can result in a wildland fire. We report results using a new time-resolved Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) method that correlates the measured FTIR spectrum with an infrared thermal image sequence, enabling the identification and quantification of gases within different phases of the fire process. The flame from burning fuel beds composed of pine needles (Pinus palustris) and mixtures of sparkleberry, fetterbush, and inkberry plants was the natural heat source for pyrolysis. Extractive gas samples were analyzed and identified in both static and dynamic modes synchronized to thermal infrared imaging: a total of 29 gases were identified including small alkanes, alkenes, aldehydes, nitrogen compounds, and aromatics, most previously measured by FTIR in wildland fires. This study presents one of the first identifications of phenol associated with both pre-combustion and combustion phases using ca. 1 Hz temporal resolution. Preliminary results indicate ~2.5× greater phenol emissions from sparkleberry and inkberry compared to fetterbush, with differing temporal profiles.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Energy exchange dynamics across L–H transitions in NSTX

Here, we studied the energy exchange dynamics across the low-to-high-confinement (L–H) transition in NSTX discharges using the gas-puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic. The investigation focused on the energy exchange between flows and turbulence to help clarify the mechanism of the L–H transition. We applied this study to three types of heating schemes, including a total of 17 shots from the NSTX 2010 campaign run. Results show that the edge fluctuation characteristics (fluctuation levels, radial and poloidal correlation lengths) measured using GPI do not vary just prior to the H-mode transition, but change after the transition. Using a velocimetry approach (orthogonal-dynamics programming), velocity fields of a $24\times 30$ cm GPI view during the L–H transition were obtained with good spatial (~1 cm) and temporal (~2.5 μs) resolutions. Analysis using these velocity fields shows that the production term is systematically negative just prior to the L–H transition, indicating a transfer from mean flows to turbulence, which is inconsistent with the predator–prey paradigm. Moreover, the inferred absolute value of the production term is two orders of magnitude too small to explain the observed rapid L–H transition. These discrepancies are further reinforced by consideration of the ratio between the kinetic energy in the mean flow to the thermal free energy, which is estimated to be much less than 1, suggesting again that the turbulence depletion mechanism may not play an important role in the transition to the H-mode. Although the Reynolds work therefore appears to be too small to directly deplete the turbulent free energy reservoir, order-of-magnitude analysis shows that the Reynolds stress may still make a non-negligible contribution to the observed poloidal flows.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Morphology and Dynamics of Bottlebrush Polymers

This thesis makes significant advances to the understanding of bottlebrush polymers. While bottlebrushes have received much attention due to the recent discovery of their unprecedented properties, including supersoftness, ultra-low viscosity, and hyperelasticity, this thesis is the first fundamental investigation at the molecular level that comprises structure and dynamics. Neutron scattering experiments, detailed within, reveal spherical or cylindrical shapes, instead of a random coil conformation. Another highlight is the analysis of the fast dynamics at the sub nm-length scale. The combination of three neutron spectrometers and the development of a new analysis technique enabled the calculation of the mean-square displacement over seven orders of magnitude in time scale. This unprecedented result can be applied to a broad class of samples, including polymers and other materials. The thesis is accessible to scientists from other fields, provides the reader with easily understandable guidelines for applying this analysis to other materials, and has the potential to make a significant impact on the analysis of neutron scattering data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Singular perturbation techniques for on-line optimal flight path control

This paper presents a partial evaluation on the use of singular perturbation methods for developing computer algorithms for on-line optimal control of aircraft. The evaluation is based on a study of the minimum time intercept problem using F-4 aerodynamic and propulsion data as a base line. The extensions over previous work on this subject are that aircraft turning dynamics (in addition to position and energy dynamics) are included in the analysis, the algorithm is developed for a moving end point and is adaptive to unpredictable target maneuvers, and short range maneuvers that do not have a cruise leg are included. Particular attention is given to identifying those quantities that can be precomputed and stored (as a function of aircraft total energy), thus greatly reducing the onboard computational load. Numerical results are given that illustrate the nature of the optimal intercept flight paths, and an estimate is given for the execution time and storage requirements of the control algorithm.

Calise, A. J.↗

Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media

This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like-illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data [1, 2] and the state-of-the-art machine learning models [3, 4], we build and evaluate the predictive power of Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) architectures capable of nowcasting (predicting in \real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 { 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, stylistic and syntactic patterns, emotions and opinions, and communication behavior. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build joint neural network models for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance [1], specifically for military rather than general populations [3] in 26 U.S. and six international locations. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network models learned from social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than syntactic and stylistic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from social media can be potentially used to accurately forecast ILI dynamics for the regions where ILI historical data is not available. (d) Neural network models learned from combined ILI and social media signals significantly outperform models that rely solely on ILI historical data, which adds to a great potential of alternative public sources for ILI dynamics prediction. (e) Location-specific models outperform previously used location-independent models e.g., U.S. only. (f) Prediction results significantly vary across geolocations depending on the amount of social media data available and ILI activity patterns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Cost Benefit Analysis to Guide Deployment of POC Diagnostics for Non-typhoidal Salmonella Infections with Antimicrobial Resistance

Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) is among the leading causes of blood stream infections in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions, especially among pediatric populations. Invasive NTS can be difficult to treat and have high case-fatality rates, in part due to emergence of strains resistant to broad-spectrum antibiotics. Furthermore, improper treatment contributes to increased antibiotic resistance and death. Point of care (POC) diagnostic tests that rapidly identify invasive NTS infection, and differentiate between resistant and non-resistant strains, may greatly improve patient outcomes and decrease resistance at the community level. Here we present for the first time a model for NTS dynamics in high risk populations that can analyze the potential advantages and disadvantages of four strategies involving POC diagnostic deployment, and the resulting impact on antimicrobial treatment for patients. Our analysis strongly supports the use of POC diagnostics coupled with targeted antibiotic use for patients upon arrival in the clinic for optimal patient and public health outcomes. We show that even the use of imperfect POC diagnostics can significantly reduce total costs and number of deaths, provided that the diagnostic gives results quickly enough that patients are likely to return or stay to receive targeted treatment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Detectability Analysis for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

To guide the measurement placement and selection for dynamic state estimation in power systems, it is important to determine the existence of an observer that can estimate the dynamic states. Past studies have been focused on observability analysis, which determines whether the initial states can be uniquely determined. In this paper, detectability analysis is proposed to determine whether the current states can be estimated as time involving. Through the proposed detectability analysis, the states of an unobservable system can be categorized into the detectable states and undetectable states. It is shown that if the eigenvalues corresponding to the unobservable states are stable, the states are detectable and their estimates will converge to the true ones asymptotically. The study can be used to guide measurement placement and selection.

Detectability, dynamic state estimation↗

Design and architecture of the Mars relay network planning and analysis framework

In this paper we describe the design and architecture of the Mars Network planning and analysis framework that supports generation and validation of efficient planning and scheduling strategy. The goals are to minimize the transmitting time, minimize the delaying time, and/or maximize the network throughputs. The proposed framework would require (1) a client-server architecture to support interactive, batch, WEB, and distributed analysis and planning applications for the relay network analysis scheme, (2) a high-fidelity modeling and simulation environment that expresses link capabilities between spacecraft to spacecraft and spacecraft to Earth stations as time-varying resources, and spacecraft activities, link priority, Solar System dynamic events, the laws of orbital mechanics, and other limiting factors as spacecraft power and thermal constraints, (3) an optimization methodology that casts the resource and constraint models into a standard linear and nonlinear constrained optimization problem that lends itself to commercial off-the-shelf (COTS)planning and scheduling algorithms.

Mars relay network planning analysis↗

Using Digital Trace Data to Identify Regions and Cities

A greater understanding of human dynamics as they play out in both physical space and through inter-personal communication is vital for the design and development of intelligent and resilient cities. Physical context provides insight in to the space-time distribution of population and their activity patterns, while inter-personal communication can, for the first time, be measured at scale through virtual interactions. The confluence of these two enables spatial social network analysis in the built environment for edge computing, knowledge discovery, and artificial intelligence activities. In this work, we propose a novel method to discover such dynamics. We use a dataset of 72 million tweets to develop a spatially embedded network of communication, and then use community detection algorithms to explore regional and urban delineation in the United States. We find that the broad spatial delineation of communities and community sub-structure is consistent with major United States socio-cultural regions, states, and major metropolitan areas. We describe how these methods could be extended to generate a measure of socially cohesive regions that can be consistently applied anywhere there is a sufficiently rich data source. We hope the proposed methods will generate new perspectives on smart and resilient cities.

Brelsford, Christa↗

Bidentate Lewis bases are preferred for passivation of MAPbI 3 surfaces: A time-domain ab initio analysis

We report chemical passivation is a predominant approach to inhibit intrinsic defects responsible for electron–hole recombination in perovskite solar cells. Using time-domain density functional theory combined with nonadiabatic molecular dynamics, we demonstrate defect passivation by separation of electrons and holes in metal halide perovskites (MHPs), and show that bidentate ligands exhibit the best performance. Defects in traditional semiconductors create deep midgap states, and passivation eliminates these states. In contrast, common defects produce no deep midgap states in MHPs. Instead, defects localize electrons and holes around defect sites, enhancing electron–hole interaction. Defect passivation in MHPs acts to separate charges, decreasing electron–hole and charge–phonon interactions, and increasing charge lifetimes. Bidentate ligands work best, because they can passivate both unsaturated chemical bonds created due to vacancy defects. Bidentate ligands with spatially separated binding sites are preferred, since they provide better match to the sparse inorganic lattice of MHPs. Similar to the Lewis base ligands, water also acts as a ligand and extends charge lifetimes, with the oxygen atom donating its lone electron pair to the defect site. However, water accelerates chemical degradation of MHPs. The binding energy of most ligands is larger than that of water, and therefore, the ligands displace water, increase MHP stability and prolong carrier lifetimes. The established physical mechanism of defect passivation, and the specific principles guiding the choice of passivating molecules advance our understanding of the exceptional properties of MHPs and suggest routes for further improvement of MHP performance in solar energy and optoelectronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fluid dynamics analysis of a gas attenuator for X-ray FELs under high-repetition-rate operation

Newtonian fluid dynamics simulations were performed using the Navier–Stokes–Fourier formulations to elucidate the short time-scale (µs and longer) evolution of the density and temperature distributions in an argon-gas-filled attenuator for an X-ray free-electron laser under high-repetition-rate operation. Both hydrodynamic motions of the gas molecules and thermal conductions were included in a finite-volume calculation. It was found that the hydrodynamic wave motions play the primary role in creating a density depression (also known as a filament) by advectively transporting gas particles away from the X-ray laser–gas interaction region, where large pressure and temperature gradients have been built upon the initial energy deposition via X-ray photoelectric absorption and subsequent thermalization. Concurrent outward heat conduction tends to reduce the pressure in the filament core region, generating a counter gas flow to backfill the filament, but on an initially slower time scale. If the inter-pulse separation is sufficiently short so the filament cannot recover, the depth of the filament progressively increases as the trailing pulses remove additional gas particles. Since the rate of hydrodynamic removal decreases while the rate of heat conduction back flow increases as time elapses, the two competing mechanisms ultimately reach a dynamic balance, establishing a repeating pattern for each pulse cycle. Finally, by performing simulations at higher repetition rates but lower per pulse energies while maintaining a constant time-averaged power, the amplitude of the hydrodynamic motion per pulse becomes smaller, and the evolution of the temperature and density distributions approach asymptotically towards, as expected, those calculated for a continuous-wave input of the equivalent power.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamic analysis of straight and involute tooth forms

The effect of load speed on straight and involute tooth forms is studied using several finite-element models. It is found that for rapidly rotating gears and sprockets, the load speed along the tooth surface can significantly affect the tooth vibration. Indeed, it is found that for sufficiently high load speeds and for sufficiently slender tooth forms, the tooth deflection can, at times, be directed opposite to the load direction. Comparisons are made of various dynamic models of gear and sprocket teeth. It is shown that for stubby tooth forms there is considerable difference between results obtained with finite element models and results obtained with Timoshenko beam models. Finally, it is shown that gear or sprocket vibrations can be induced by the shape of the tooth form itself. This effect becomes increasingly significant at higher speeds.

Lin, H. H.↗

Nonlinear dynamics and quantum chaos of a family of kicked p -spin models

Herein we introduce kicked p-spin models describing a family of transverse Ising-like models for an ensemble of spin-1/2 particles with all-to-all p-body interaction terms occurring periodically in time as delta-kicks. This is the natural generalization of the well-studied quantum kicked top (p = 2) [Haake, Kus', and Scharf, Z. Phys. B 65, 381 (1987)]. We fully characterize the classical nonlinear dynamics of these models, including the transition to global Hamiltonian chaos. The classical analysis allows us to build a classification for this family of models, distinguishing between p = 2 and p > 2, and between models with odd and even p's. Quantum chaos in these models is characterized in both kinematic and dynamic signatures. For the latter, we show numerically that the growth rate of the out-of-time-order correlator is dictated by the classical Lyapunov exponent. Finally, we argue that the classification of these models constructed in the classical system applies to the quantum system as well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DYNAMIC PRA OF A MULTI-UNIT PLANT

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methods couple stochastic methods (e.g., RAVEN, ADAPT, ADS, MCDET) with safety analysis codes (RELAP5-3D, MELCOR, MAAP) to determine risk associated to complex systems such as nuclear plants. Compared to classical PRA methods, which are based on static logic structures (e.g., Event-Trees, Fault-Trees), they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the accident progression. Recently, special attention has been given to nuclear plants which consist of multiple units and, in particular, on the safety impact of system dependencies, shared systems and common resources on core damage frequencies. In the literature, while classical PRA methods have been employed to model multi-unit plants, Dynamic PRA methods have never been applied to analyze a full multi-unit model. This paper presents a PRA analysis of a multi-unit plant using Dynamic PRA methods. We employ RAVEN as stochastic method coupled with RELAP5-3D. The plant under consideration consists of the three units and their associated spent fuel pools (SFPs). The studied initiating event is a seismic induced station blackout event. We will describe in detail how the multi-unit plant has been constructed and, in particular, how unit dependencies and shared resources are modeled.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Validation of a Computational Model for the SLS Core Stage Oxygen Tank Diffuser Concept and the Low Profile Diffuser - An Advanced Development Design for the SLS

The Low Profile Diffuser (LPD) project originated as an award from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Development (ADO) office to the Main Propulsion Systems Branch (ER22). The task was created to develop and test an LPD concept that could produce comparable performance to a larger, traditionally designed, ullage gas diffuser while occupying a smaller volume envelope. Historically, ullage gas diffusers have been large, bulky devices that occupy a significant portion of the propellant tank, decreasing the tank volume available for propellant. Ullage pressurization of spacecraft propellant tanks is required to prevent boil-off of cryogenic propellants and to provide a positive pressure for propellant extraction. To achieve this, ullage gas diffusers must slow hot, high-pressure gas entering a propellant tank from supersonic speeds to only a few meters per second. Decreasing the incoming gas velocity is typically accomplished through expansion to larger areas within the diffuser which has traditionally led to large diffuser lengths. The Fluid Dynamics Branch (ER42) developed and applied advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis methods in order to mature the LPD design from and initial concept to an optimized test prototype and to provide extremely accurate pre-test predictions of diffuser performance. Additionally, the diffuser concept for the Core Stage of the Space Launch System (SLS) was analyzed in a short amount of time to guide test data collection efforts of the qualification of the device. CFD analysis of the SLS diffuser design provided new insights into the functioning of the device and was qualitatively validated against hot wire anemometry of the exterior flow field. Rigorous data analysis of the measurements was performed on static and dynamic pressure data, data from two microphones, accelerometers and hot wire anemometry with automated traverse. Feasibility of the LPD concept and validation of the computational model were demonstrated by the test data.

Brodnick, Jacob↗

Moving With Parasites: Relationships Between Animal Movement and Infectious Disease Across Systems and Scales

Animal movement patterns are important for ecological processes such as population dynamics and infectious disease transmission. Because animals move in response to environmental cues like temperature and precipitation, changes to the environment – whether they are seasonal, interannual, or long-term – can change these processes, leading to changes in population sizes or infectious disease prevalence across space and time. My work uses a combination of simulation modeling and data analysis at multiple spatial and temporal scales to understand the environment-movement-disease connection in diverse animal taxa and environments. In this seminar, I will highlight the diverse ways that the environment can influence infectious disease dynamics via changes to animal movement patterns, including through a global study of migration in ungulate populations, a study of American White Ibis adapting to urban environments in South Florida, and examples of avian influenza prevalence in wild waterfowl. Together, these examples highlight that understanding environment-movement interactions can help predict how infectious disease dynamics might change in the future, as changes to climate, land use, and habitats alter animal movement patterns.

Animal movement↗

Methodological approach to the sensitivity analysis of failure effects in modern digital I and C systems - 136

Modern I and C systems of nuclear power plants increasingly use digital equipment, software-based applications for I and C functions and different types and topologies of communication networks as well. The structure, operation and communication of digital safety-related I and C systems are strongly influenced by the implemented automatic fault detection and fault treatment procedures as barriers against failure propagation. Thus, these I and C systems can change their operating states automatically during the operation time, e.g. due to the detection and correction of certain failure types. Reasonably because of these dynamic properties of digital I and C systems the use of classical fault tree and event tree methods solely for the reliability analysis of modern I and C systems is less suitable. These methods basically apply static models and do not consider the temporal changes of the operating state of the I and C system or equipment appropriately. In this paper, a recently developed approach for the sensitivity analysis of digital I and C systems will be introduced that allows to investigate the dynamic behavior of such systems in cases of internal faults and to quantify the effects on the system reliability. The development and testing of the analysis methodology is carried out using models of generic I and C systems with different typical architectures of stepwise increased complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗