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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗

Adams-Based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Simulator - ARTEMIS

The Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs), Spirit and Opportunity, far exceeded their original drive distance expectations and have traveled, at the time of this reporting, a combined 29 kilometers across the surface of Mars. The Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP), the current program used to plan drives for MERs, is only a kinematic simulator of rover movement. Therefore, rover response to various terrains and soil types cannot be modeled. Although sandbox experiments attempt to model rover-terrain interaction, these experiments are time-intensive and costly, and they cannot be used within the tactical timeline of rover driving. Imaging techniques and hazard avoidance features on MER help to prevent the rover from traveling over dangerous terrains, but mobility issues have shown that these methods are not always sufficient. ARTEMIS, a dynamic modeling tool for MER, allows planned drives to be simulated before commands are sent to the rover. The deformable soils component of this model allows rover-terrain interactions to be simulated to determine if a particular drive path would take the rover over terrain that would induce hazardous levels of slip or sink. When used in the rover drive planning process, dynamic modeling reduces the likelihood of future mobility issues because high-risk areas could be identified before drive commands are sent to the rover, and drives planned over these areas could be rerouted. The ARTEMIS software consists of several components. These include a preprocessor, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Adams rover model, wheel and soil parameter files, MSC Adams GUI (commercial), MSC Adams dynamics solver (commercial), terramechanics subroutines (FORTRAN), a contact detection engine, a soil modification engine, and output DEMs of deformed soil. The preprocessor is used to define the terrain (from a DEM) and define the soil parameters for the terrain file. The Adams rover model is placed in this terrain. Wheel and soil parameter files can be altered in the respective text files. The rover model and terrain are viewed in Adams View, the GUI for ARTEMIS. The Adams dynamics solver calls terramechanics subroutines in FORTRAN containing the Bekker-Wong equations.

Trease, Brian P.↗

Evolution of dislocation loops in irradiated α-Uranium: An atomistically-informed cluster dynamics investigation

An atomistically-informed mean field cluster dynamics model has been developed to investigate the nucleation and growth of prismatic loops in irradiated a-Uranium. TEM analysis of neutron irradiated a-Uranium shows the evolution of self-interstitial atom and vacancy loops on (010) and (100) crystallographic planes, respectively, resulting in an anisotropic lattice swelling of its face-centered orthorhombic crystal. To provide model parameters, the crystallography of loops and the binding energy of point defects to these loops were studied using an angular dependent EAM potential and classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Furthermore, using the bond-boost hyperdynamics method, the anisotropic diffusion of interstitials and vacancies in a-Uranium was investigated. Here, the mechanisms of point defect diffusion and the associated migration energies were reported and compared with previous DFT studies. The energetics and kinetic quantities mentioned above were used in the cluster dynamics model to predict the cluster density as a function of dose rate, dose and temperature and the results were compared to the reported neutron irradiation experiments. The model predictions reveal an accumulation of small sized vacancy loops along with a population of large and growing self-interstitial loops, which closely corresponds to the TEM observations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The influence of unsteady aerodynamics on hingeless rotor ground resonance

Calculations of the model frequency and damping for a hingeless rotor on a gimballed support in hover are compared with measured results for two configurations (differing in blade flap stiffness). Good correlation is obtaned when an inflow dynamics model is used to account for the influence of the unsteady aerodynamics. The effect of the unsteady aerodynamics is significant for this rotor system. The inflow dynamics model introduces additional states corresponding to perturbations of the wake-induced velocity at the rotor disk. The calculations confirm the experimental observation that the inflow mode introduced by these additional states is measurable for one configuration but not for the other.

Johnson, W.↗

Extended dynamic mode decomposition for model reduction in fluid dynamics simulations

High computational cost and storage/memory requirements of fluid dynamics simulations constrain their usefulness as a predictive tool. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide a viable solution to this challenge by extracting the key underlying dynamics of a complex system directly from data. We investigate the efficacy and robustness of an extended dynamic mode decomposition (xDMD) algorithm in constructing ROMs of three-dimensional cardiovascular computations. Focusing on the ROMs' accuracy in representation and interpolation, we relate these metrics to the truncation rank of singular value decomposition, which underpins xDMD and other approaches to ROM construction. Our key innovation is to relate the truncation rank to the singular values of the original flow problem. This result establishes a priori guidelines for the xDMD deployment and its likely success as a means of data compression and reconstruction of the system's dynamics from dominant spatiotemporal structures present in the data.

Mechanics↗

Quasi‐dynamic breathing model of the lung incorporating viscoelasticity of the lung tissue

Abstract We advanced a novel model to calculate viscoelastic lung compliance and airflow resistance in presence of mucus, accounting for the quasi‐linear viscoelastic stress–strain response of the parenchyma (alveoli) tissue. We adapted a continuum‐based numerical modeling approach for the lung, integrating the fluid mechanics of the airflow within individual generations of the bronchi and alveoli. The model accounts for elasticity of the deformable bronchioles, resistance to airflow due to the presence of mucus within the bronchioles, and subsequent mucus flow. Simulated quasi‐dynamic inhalation and expiration cycles were used to characterize the net compliance and resistance of the lung, considering the rheology of the mucus and viscoelastic properties of the parenchyma tissue. The structure and material properties of the lung were identified to have an important contribution to the lung compliance and airflow resistance. The secondary objective of this work was to assess whether a higher frequency and smaller volume of harmonic air flow rate compared to a normal ventilator breathing cycle enhanced mucus outflow. Results predict, lower mucus viscosity and higher excitation frequency of breathing are favorable for the flow of mucus up the bronchi tree, towards the trachea.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Pseudo-viscous modeling of transport in dense granular flows for thermal energy storage applications

Dense, granular flows were examined to effectively capture and model bulk viscous properties in thin packed beds. A modified Couette cell with particle image velocimetry was used to experimentally determine pseudo-viscosity properties of four particulate media with varying morphologies: (1) iron oxide-coated SiO 2 particles, (2) CARBOBEAD CP30-60 particles, (3) CARBOBEAD CP40-100 particles, and (4) Al 2 O 3 beads. The pseudo-viscosity functions were fitted using a power law to correlate the measured shear stress as a function of measured shear rate. The pseudo-viscous functions were used as inputs to computation fluid dynamics models for a single-phase viscous fluid to predict granular flow profiles. Steady-state free surface velocity profiles at angular velocities <7 rad/s predicted by the model were in good agreement with the experimental particle image velocimetry measurements, resulting in Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.97 for iron-oxide coated SiO 2 particles and 0.95 for CP30-60 particles. As a result, this alternative approach to measuring pseudo-viscous properties under shearing and modeling bulk transport behavior of granular flow using computation fluid dynamics model offered significant reduction in computational load compared to discrete element methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SPAR analysis of LDEF vibration characteristics

This paper presents a structural dynamic modeling of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which is a Space Shuttle payload of passive scientific experiments contained in trays mounted on a large cylindrically shaped structure. Special detailed finite element modeling, using the SPAR system of computer programs was required to obtain good agreement between analytical and test vibrations modes. Experimental trays contributed significantly to overall LDEF stiffnesses, and these contributions were realistically represented for each tray by the stiffness matrix of an equivalent orthotropic panel in the overall LDEF SPAR model. Orthotropic stiffnesses for this panel were obtained from finely detailed statically loaded tray SPAR models in which stiffness coupling was accounted for along with partial relative sliding allowed by the tray clamping attachments. Joint boundary conditions were also significant in the structural dynamic modeling of LDEF, and static data proved valuable in assessing modeling of local end fittings.

Edighoffer, H. H.↗

Carbon cycle instability as a cause of the late Pleistocene ice age oscillations - Modeling the asymmetric response

A dynamical model of the Pleistocene ice ages is presented, which incorporates many of the qualitative ideas advanced recently regarding the possible role of ocean circulation, chemistry, temperature, and productivity in regulating long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide variations. This model involves one additional term (and free parameter) beyond that included in a previous model (Saltzman and Sutera, 1987), providing the capacity for an asymmetric response. It is shown that many of the main features exhibited by the delta(O-18)-derived ice record and the Vostok core/delta(C-13)-derived carbon dioxide record in the late Pleistocene can be deduced as a free oscillatory solution of the model.

Saltzman, Barry↗

LDEF environment modeling updates

An updated gas dynamics model for gas interactions around the LDEF is presented that includes improved scattering algorithms. The primary improvement is more accurate predictions of surface fluxes in the wake region. The code used is the Integrated Spacecraft Environments Model (ISEM). Additionally, initial results of a detailed ISEM prediction model of the Solar Array Passive LDEF Experiment (SAMPLE), A0171, is presented. This model includes details of the A0171 geometry and outgassing characteristics of the many surfaces on the experiment. The detailed model includes the multiple scattering that exists between the ambient atmosphere, LDEF outgassing, and atomic oxygen erosion products. Predictions are made for gas densities, surface fluxes and deposition at three different time periods of the LDEF mission.

Gordon, Tim↗

Kalman Orbit Optimized Loop Tracking

Under certain conditions of low signal power and/or high noise, there is insufficient signal to noise ratio (SNR) to close tracking loops with individual signals on orbiting Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. In addition, the processing power available from flight computers is not great enough to implement a conventional ultra-tight coupling tracking loop. This work provides a method to track GNSS signals at very low SNR without the penalty of requiring very high processor throughput to calculate the loop parameters. The Kalman Orbit-Optimized Loop (KOOL) tracking approach constitutes a filter with a dynamic model and using the aggregate of information from all tracked GNSS signals to close the tracking loop for each signal. For applications where there is not a good dynamic model, such as very low orbits where atmospheric drag models may not be adequate to achieve the required accuracy, aiding from an IMU (inertial measurement unit) or other sensor will be added. The KOOL approach is based on research JPL has done to allow signal recovery from weak and scintillating signals observed during the use of GPS signals for limb sounding of the Earth s atmosphere. That approach uses the onboard PVT (position, velocity, time) solution to generate predictions for the range, range rate, and acceleration of the low-SNR signal. The low- SNR signal data are captured by a directed open loop. KOOL builds on the previous open loop tracking by including feedback and observable generation from the weak-signal channels so that the MSR receiver will continue to track and provide PVT, range, and Doppler data, even when all channels have low SNR.

Young, Lawrence E.↗

Multiscale Cloud System Modeling

The central theme of this paper is to describe how cloud system resolving models (CRMs) of grid spacing approximately 1 km have been applied to various important problems in atmospheric science across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and how these applications relate to other modeling approaches. A long-standing problem concerns the representation of organized precipitating convective cloud systems in weather and climate models. Since CRMs resolve the mesoscale to large scales of motion (i.e., 10 km to global) they explicitly address the cloud system problem. By explicitly representing organized convection, CRMs bypass restrictive assumptions associated with convective parameterization such as the scale gap between cumulus and large-scale motion. Dynamical models provide insight into the physical mechanisms involved with scale interaction and convective organization. Multiscale CRMs simulate convective cloud systems in computational domains up to global and have been applied in place of contemporary convective parameterizations in global models. Multiscale CRMs pose a new challenge for model validation, which is met in an integrated approach involving CRMs, operational prediction systems, observational measurements, and dynamical models in a new international project: the Year of Tropical Convection, which has an emphasis on organized tropical convection and its global effects.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Dynamics of the abrupt change in Pacific Plate motion around 50 million years ago

Changes in Pacific Plate motion combined near equally with hotspot drift to generate the prominent bend in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain some 50 million years ago, according to kinematic plate reconstruction and global dynamic models. A drastic change in plate tectonics and mantle convection occurred around 50 Ma as exemplified by the prominent Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Both an abrupt Pacific Plate motion change and a change in mantle plume dynamics have been proposed to account for the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend, but debates surround the relative contribution of the two mechanisms. Here we build kinematic plate reconstructions and high-resolution global dynamic models to quantify the amount of Pacific Plate motion change. We find Izanagi Plate subduction, followed by demise of the Izanagi-Pacific Ridge and Izu-Bonin-Mariana subduction initiation alone, is incapable of causing a sudden change in plate motion, challenging the conventional hypothesis on the mechanisms of Pacific Plate motion change. Instead, Palaeocene slab pull from Kronotsky intraoceanic subduction in the northern Pacific exerts a northward pull on the Pacific Plate, while its Eocene demise leads to a sudden 30-35 degrees change in plate motion, accounting for about half of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. We suggest the Pacific Plate motion change and hotspot drift due to plume dynamics could have contributed nearly equally to the formation of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Such a scenario is consistent with available constraints from global plate circuits, palaeomagnetic data and geodynamic models.

Hu, Jiashun↗

Developing Soil Models for Dynamic Impact Simulations

This paper describes fundamental soils characterization work performed at NASA Langley Research Center in support of the Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) Aeronautics Program and the Orion Landing System (LS) Advanced Development Program (ADP). LS-DYNA(Registered TradeMark)1 soil impact model development and test-analysis correlation results are presented for: (1) a 38-ft/s vertical drop test of a composite fuselage section, outfitted with four blocks of deployable energy absorbers (DEA), onto sand, and (2) a series of impact tests of a 1/2-scale geometric boilerplate Orion capsule onto soil. In addition, the paper will discuss LS-DYNA contact analysis at the soil/structure interface, methods used to estimate frictional forces, and the sensitivity of the model to density, moisture, and compaction.

Fasanella, Edwin L.↗

Modelica-based system modeling for studying control-related faults in chiller plants and boiler plants serving large office buildings

System modeling is critical when studying operation faults in chiller plants and boiler plants. However, current fault models have difficulties faithfully representing the operation of chiller plants and boiler plants under the effects of those faults, especially the control-related ones. In this study, we present a systematic method to develop high-fidelity models for approximating the behaviors of chiller plants and boiler plants under faulty conditions. Compared to existing ones, the resulting fault models have two advantages: first, they better characterize the dynamic patterns in the system operation. In those models, control architecture and control logic are faithfully implemented. Thus, they can be used to study control-related faults, such as incorrect staging control due to sensor bias and mistuned feedback control. Second, they are readily extensible and can support large-scale investigations to explore different faulty conditions/scenarios. Those models are established in a hierarchical structure while modules in each layer can be redeclared and parameterized at upper layers. In such a case, modifications to the models can be realized through model modifiers and the process can be easily streamlined with scripts. We applied the proposed models in a comprehensive fault impact evaluation of the 13 control-related faults of chiller and boiler plants. In this evaluation, the proposed plant model is coupled with the EnergyPlus thermal load model to study the impact of various faulty scenarios. Based on the evaluation results, we identified the faults that have the most significant impacts on the operation of the chiller and boiler plants, respectively. We also found that the relationship between the impacts of the studied faults and the severity level of the faults are highly non-linear

Huang, Sen↗