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DOE OSTI2023

University Coalition for Fossil Fuel Energy Research

Following a nationwide open competition, the University Coalition for Fossil Energy Research (UCFER) was established in October 2015 through a cooperative agreement between Penn State and the Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Penn State lead UCFER with the objective of advancing basic and applied research for clean and low-carbon energy based on fossil fuels in support of the DOE’s mission. UCFER focused on research that improves the efficiency of production and use of fossil energy resources, while minimizing the environmental impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Penn State lead a team of nine universities (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Pennsylvania State University, Princeton University, Texas A&M University, University of Kentucky, University of Southern California, The University of Tulsa, University of Wyoming, and Virginia Polytechnic and State University) during the competition stage, adding seven more universities in 2017 (Carnegie Mellon University, Louisiana State University, The Ohio State University, University of North Dakota, University of Pittsburgh, University of Utah, and West Virginia University). This Coalition exhibited a wide geographical distribution across the U.S. bringing a wide variety of fossil energy expertise. This national university alliance was a major collaborative effort with NETL to address specific topics of R&D in NETL’s mission area, which involved one or more of NETL’s five core competencies (Geologic and Environmental Systems, Materials Engineering and Manufacturing, Energy Conversion Engineering, Systems Engineering and Analysis, and Computational Science and Engineering). The first five to six months of the project was the definitization stage. During this period, Penn State worked closely with NETL to finalize the Coalition organizational structure and By- Laws, prepare a statement of substantial involvement and a statement of project objectives, and develop operations and membership plans. A major component of this stage included preparing an execution plan to solicit research, evaluate proposals, recommend selected projects to NETL, and award projects. In addition, a plan was prepared to monitor projects, review projects, disseminate knowledge from research projects and develop an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. This included developing a website and several databases. The first of six rounds of solicitations started in mid-2016. Projects from the sixth solicitation started February 1, 2021, and ended January 31, 2023. Projects that were selected represented twelve technology lines. Approximately $16.6 million in funding was available for the six solicitations. Most of the funding was provided by DOE, Office of Fossil Energy (DOEFE) with the DOE Fuel Cells Technologies Office (DOE-FCTO) providing funding for a few projects. Coalition universities submitted 259 proposals in response to the solicitations, requesting approximately $67.0 million in funding, and forty-three projects were selected. However, one project withdrew after the principal investigator left the university. The management of the Coalition projects was a major activity by Penn State. Managing the Coalition projects consisted of monitoring the projects, reviewing the projects through annual technical review meetings, disseminating knowledge from the research projects, and developing an online system for Coalition research portfolio management. Penn State’s OMT monitored projects to ensure that all milestones (technical, schedule, budget) were met, expenditures were allowable, cost share (when applicable) were reported, and all technical reports were submitted. The OMT also posted the technical reports electronically on a secure members-only website for access and review by the Coalition members. Disseminating knowledge from the research projects was done through a website, newsletters, various meetings, conferences, journal articles, publicity/press releases, and project summaries that were prepared after each project was completed. Penn State kept NETL apprised of UCFER progress through quarterly reports (thirtyone were submitted by Penn State), verbal and written communications, yearly updates at the annual technical review meetings, and cost accrual reports. The UCFER project had a significant impacty. The UCFER program established the first national university alliance in fossil energy research with a major collaboration effort with DOE NETL that addressed specific topics in NETL’s research and development mission areas. It generated inter-university collaborations, which was another program interest. Twenty-two out of 259 proposals contained collaborations (≈8.5%) and three of forty-two funded projects involved inter-university collaborations (≈7.0%). The forty-two funded projects provided support at fourteen universities involving 269 personnel. Research was conducted by 106 faculty, 115 graduate and undergraduate students, forty-six research staff and post-doctoral scholars, and two visiting scholars. Students and post-doctoral scholars were also on-site at NETL through CRADAs. In addition, non-Coalition participants included six universities and sixteen companies and national laboratories. The non-Coalition participants were involved as subcontractors, providers of cost share, performed unpaid consultation and sample analysis, served as advisory board members, or were providers of samples and materials for testing. UCFER also produced visibility in that fifty-six refereed journal articles were published, fifty-seven conference papers and twenty-three posters were prepared, 190 presentations were given, eight patent applications were filed, two books/book chapters were written, and ten software codes were developed. Collaboration between NETL and the individual projects was a major requirement for all funded projects. This included NETL staff time to support collaboration, consultation, technical guidance, sample preparation and analysis, internships at NETL, on-site testing and equipment usage by Coalition participants at NETL, co-mentoring students, and coauthoring journal articles and conference papers. Collaboration was impacted by COVID-19 in that not all on-site activities could be performed. NETL personnel were coauthors on eight of the conference papers (fourteen percent of the conference papers that were prepared) and seventeen of the journal articles (thirty percent of the journal articles that were prepared). A website was developed for an online proposal solicitation and review process and to provide exposure to UCFER. A website analysis highlighted the large amount of member and general public interest in UCFER by interpreting access statistics from March 2016 through June 2023. Visitors to the site originated from many different organizations, businesses, and countries. The website provided a means to disseminate information to both the general public and the UCFER members and was successfully used for outreach activities. In addition, NETL required that RFP release, proposal submission, and proposal reviews all be performed online. Penn State successfully developed these capabilities in a secure section of the website, which were used throughout the UCFER project. It is recognized that each project had its technical successes. In addition, highlighted successes were compiled and summarized from the research projects. Information was requested from the PIs of completed projects. In addition, Penn State’s Operations Management Team reviewed subcontract reports to identify project successes. Examples of information requested from PIs included (not all-inclusive): new projects that have been funded as a result of UCFER funding; new commercial products; establishment of a new center; new patent; new software; best paper awards; highly-cited work; and graduate student successes. A total of forty-eight highlighted successes were reported.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2015

Attitude Design for the LADEE Mission

The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) satellite successfully completed its 148-day science investigation in a low-altitude, near-equatorial lunar orbit on April 18, 2014. The LADEE spacecraft was built, managed and operated by NASA's Ames Research Center (ARC). The Mission Operations Center (MOC) was located at Ames and was responsible for activity planning, command sequencing, trajectory and attitude design, orbit determination, and spacecraft operations. The Science Operations Center (SOC) was located at Goddard Space Flight Center and was responsible for science planning, data archiving and distribution. This paper details attitude design and operations support for the LADEE mission. LADEE's attitude design was shaped by a wide range of instrument pointing requirements that necessitated regular excursions from the baseline one revolution per orbit "Ram" attitude. Such attitude excursions were constrained by a number of flight rules levied to protect instruments from the Sun, avoid geometries that would result in simultaneous occlusion of LADEE's two star tracker heads, and maintain the spacecraft within its thermal and power operating limits. To satisfy LADEE's many attitude requirements and constraints, a set of rules and conventions was adopted to manage the complexity of this design challenge and facilitate the automation of ground software that generated pointing commands spanning multiple days of operations at a time. The resulting LADEE Flight Dynamics System (FDS) that was developed used Visual Basic scripts that generated instructions to AGI's Satellite Tool Kit (STK) in order to derive quaternion commands at regular intervals that satisfied LADEE's pointing requirements. These scripts relied heavily on the powerful "align and constrain" capability of STK's attitude module to construct LADEE's attitude profiles and the slews to get there. A description of the scripts and the attitude modeling they embodied is provided. One particular challenge analysts faced was in the design of LADEE maneuver attitudes. A flight rule requiring pre-maneuver verification of in-flight maneuver conditions by ground operators prior to burn execution resulted in the need to accommodate long periods in the maneuver attitude. This in turn complicated efforts to satisfy star tracker interference and communication constraints in lunar orbit. In response to this challenge, a graphical method was developed and used to survey candidate rotation angles about the thrust vector. This survey method is described and an example of its use on a particular LADEE maneuver is discussed. Finally, the software and methodology used to satisfy LADEE's attitude requirements are also discussed in the context of LADEE's overall activity planning effort. In particular, the way in which strategic schedules of instrument and engineering activities were translated into actual attitude profiles at the tactical level, then converted into precise quaternion commands to achieve those pointing goals is explained. In order to reduce the risk of time-consuming re-planning efforts, this process included the generation of long-term projections of constraint violation predictions for individual attitude profiles that could be used to establish keep-out time-frames for particular attitude profiles. The challenges experienced and overall efficacy of both the overall LADEE ground system and the attitude components of the Flight Dynamics System in meeting LADEE's varied pointing requirements are discussed.

LADEE↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Manufacturing Process for the NASA Composite Crew Module Demonstration Structure

This paper will describe the approaches and methods selected in fabrication of a carbon composite demonstration structure for the Composite Crew Module (CCM) Program. The program is managed by the NASA Safety and Engineering Center with participants from ten NASA Centers and AFRL. Multiple aerospace contractors are participating in the design development, tooling and fabrication effort as well. The goal of the program is to develop an agency wide design team for composite habitable spacecraft. The specific goals for this development project are: a).To gain hands on experience in design, building and testing a composite crew module. b) To validate key assumptions by resolving composite spacecraft design details through fabrication and testing of hardware. This abstract is based on Preliminary Design data..The final design will continue to evolve through the fall of 2007 with fabrication mostly completed by conference date. From a structures perspective, the.CCM can be viewed as a pressure module with variable pressure time histories and a series of both impact and quasi-static, high intensity point, line, and area distributed loads. The portion of the overall space vehicle being designed and. fabricated by the CCM team is just the pressure module and primary loading points. The heaviest point loads are applied and distributed to the pressure module at.an aluminum Service Module/Alternate Launch Abort System (SM/ALAS) fittings and at Main and Drogue Chute fittings. Significant line loads with metal to metal impact is applied at.the Lids ring. These major external point and line loads as well as pressure impact loads (blast and water landing) are applied to the lobed floor though the reentry shield and crushable materials. The pressure module is divided into upper and lower. shells that mate together with a bonded belly band splice joint to create the completed structural assembly. The benefits of a split CCM far outweigh the risks of a joint. These benefits include lower tooling cost and less manufacturing risk. Assembly of the top and bottom halves of the pressure shell will allow access to the interior of the shell throughout remaining fabrication sequence and can also potentially permit extensive installation of equipment and .crew facilities prior to final assembly of the two shell halves. A Pi pre-form is a woven carbon composite material which is provided in pre-impregnated form and frozen for long term storage. The cross-section shape allows the top of the pi to be bonded to a flat or curved surface with a second flat plate composite section bonded between two upstanding legs of the Pi. One of the regions relying on the merits of the Pi pre-form is the backbone. All connections among plates of the backbone structure, including the upper flanges, and to the lobe base of the pressure shell are currently joined by Pi pre-forms. The intersection of backbone composite plates is formed by application of two Pi pre-forms, top flanges and lobed surfaces are bonded with one Pi pre-form. The process of applying the pre-impregnated pi-preform will be demonstrated to include important steps like surface preparation, forming, application of pressure dams, vacuum bagging for consolidation, and curing techniques. Chopped carbon fiber tooling was selected over other traditional metallic and carbon fiber tooling. The requirement of schedule and cost economy for a moderate reuse cure tool warranted composite tooling options. Composite tooling schedule duration of 18 weeks compared favorably against other metallic tooling including invar tooling. Composite tooling also shows significant cost savings over low CTE metallic options. The composite tooling options were divided into two groups and the final decision was based on the cost, schedule, tolerance, temperature, and reuse requirements.

Pelham, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gasification Combined Heat and Power from Coal Fines

The goal of this final project report is to comprehensively summarize the work for public domain conducted on project DE-FE 0031520. In accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research (UKy-CAER) (Recipient) has completed a Front End Engineering Design (FEED) study 5 MWe polygeneration unit using the Coal Fields Regional Industrial Park in Hazard, Kentucky (KY) as a model location and using coal recovered from the adjacent Pads Branch Impoundment as feed. The scope of work is a thorough study that can be used as a template for the application of the proposed technology throughout Eastern KY and other coal communities nationwide. The Technology Design Basis was developed based on three elements: basic site characteristics; fuel feedstock; and environmental health and safety requirements. The Basic Engineering Design Elements include the preliminary process design (the process area descriptions; the Block Flow Diagram (BFD), Process Flow Diagrams (PFDs) and Piping and Instrumentation Diagrams (P&IDs), process simulation outputs and Heat and Mass Balance (H&MB) stream tables, the major process equipment and instrumentation lists which includes specifications and materials of construction); the cost estimate (capital cost estimate, operational cost estimate, and comparison with state-of-the-art commercial scale similar technologies, options to lower cost, construction cost and schedule estimate); and other supporting elements (guidelines for execution and management of the project), logistical summary, and balance of plant summary, the Environmental Health and Safety (EH&S) assessment; and a Social and Economic Impact (S&EI) assessment. All project milestones, deliverables and success criteria were met. The proposed 5 MWe polygeneration facility being fed from impoundment recovered coal has been shown to be technically feasible. Annual revenues are estimated at $\$ $2.4M from electricity, steam and hydrocarbon production; annual operating expenses are $\$ $5.2M ($\$ $2.9 M in operating expenses, and $\$ $2.4M in indirect expenses). The gasifier facility, as configured during the FEED, will lose money when operating under commercial operating conditions and terms. However, eight options improving the economics can be considered during the detailed design phase to make the facility profitable by taking advantage of the positive differential of revenue to variable operating costs, and reducing the influence of fixed operating costs. Coupled with the findings from the S&EI assessment estimating a total economic impact of $\$ $374M for the proposed polygeneration facility at >$\$ $1.5B, if three additional such projects are implemented, clearly positive economics are demonstrated. No EH&S issues are identified that would prohibit proceeding with the project, although permitting efforts are estimated to take 3-5 years.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2019

FTLADS: Object-Logging Based Fault-Tolerant Big Data Transfer System Using Layout Aware Data Scheduling

The layout-aware data scheduling (LADS) data movement framework optimizes congestion for end-to-end data transfers. During data transfer, LADS can avoid congested storage elements by exploiting the underlying storage layout at each endpoint. This improves the I/O bandwidth and hence the data transfer rate across high-speed networks. However, the absence of fault tolerance (FT) in LADS results in data retransmission overhead and may lead to possible data integrity issues upon faults. In this paper, we propose object-logging FT mechanisms to avoid transmitting the objects that are successfully written into the parallel file system (PFS) at the sink end. Depending on the number of log files created for the whole dataset, we have classified our FT mechanisms into three different categories: file logger, transaction logger, and universal logger. Also, to address the space overhead, we have proposed different methods of populating the log files with the information of the successfully transferred objects. We have evaluated the data transfer performance and recovery time overhead of the proposed object-logging-based FT mechanisms on the LADS data transfer framework. Our experimental results reflect that FT mechanisms exhibit negligible overhead (<; 1%) with respect to the data transfer time. Yet, the fault recovery time is 10% higher than the total data transfer time at any fault point.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of Utility Managed Smart Charging for Multiple Benefit Streams (Final Report)

In the summer of 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) awarded funding to Exelon’s Maryland utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Delmarva Power & Light (DPL), and Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco)—to implement the Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot. This initiative aimed to design and implement managed electric vehicle (EV) charging strategies, evaluate the grid impacts of EV charging, and assess the utilities' ability to control EV load based on real-time grid conditions. The SCM pilot explored four aspects for continued improvement: (1) cybersecurity and managed charging functionality testing of two vendor platforms—WeaveGrid (telematics-based) and Shell Recharge Solutions (network-based)—which pursued charge scheduling and optimization through distinct approaches; (2) an analysis by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) modeling team of three potential SCM enrollment scenarios within BGE and Pepco service territories over the next decade to assess future scalability; (3) employing customer engagement strategies, including surveys and a responsive pricing approach; and (4) the launch and implementation of pilots in Exelon’s Maryland territories in collaboration with WeaveGrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evidence of Completion of Milestone 3: Experimental Testbed

Construction and deployment of the experimental testbed encountered scheduling delays, and completion was subsequently further delayed by curtailment of LANL operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March and October, LANL was in a state of “Limited Operations” such that only certain “mission-critical” work was performed with approximately 25% on-site staffing. In spite of this, much of the lab space preparation was executed and the five initial model house” units were constructed and installed during this period. Still, the pace of construction was impacted by difficulty in coordinating personnel and minimizing contact between workers. Currently, LANL is in the mode of “Normal Operations with Maximum Telework,” which continues to limit the availability of on-site personnel. Nevertheless, Milestone 3 is now complete. This document describes the experiment as it is deployed and provides status for each task for this milestone.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation and Operation of Power Flow Control Solutions for Transmission Systems

Power-flow controls (PFCs) technologies provide a suite of alternatives to more-efficiently direct the flow of power on the grid, improving flexibility and enabling the grid to be more responsive and resilient. PFCs can be used in many cases to mitigate overloads and consequently defer the installation of grid-expansion projects. They can also be suitable options in situations where new transmission lines cannot be built because of environmental constraints, land use, or other types of restrictions. Other uses include mitigation of loop or unintended flows, forcing of contractual or scheduled flows, reduction of congestion, and mitigation solutions during large maintenance or construction projects. While many studies have demonstrated the potential economic benefits of PFC for different types of applications, the implementation implications of using multiple PFCs for system operation and reliability have not been analyzed in detail. The lack of information and practical experience on these aspects hinders adoption of this technology. One use case would be that multiple PFCs are required to coordinate congestion management. In such cases, multiple PFCs are deployed in a meshed power system to control power flows across a wide area. The challenges are associated with PFC interaction—namely, the self and mutual power-flow sensitivity of each PFC, which must be accounted for in the calculation of the respective operating setpoints. This report analyzes implementation and operation that must be considered in evaluating transmission solutions using PFCs. The report first analyzes attributes with which PFC-based solutions should comply, based on the objective and characteristics of each particular use case. It then describes different approaches for coordinated control of multiple PFC devices for different applications, including options to avoid adverse interactions and reduce risks due to inappropriate coordination. Control and operation are illustrated through case studies performed on both generic and actual power system models. This report provides insights for transmission planners and operation engineers about the implementation of PFC-based transmission solutions; consequently, it will help them make informed decisions about the adoption of the technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2012

Fast Paced, Low Cost Projects at MSFC

What does an orbiting microsatellite, a robotic lander and a ruggedized camera and telescope have in common? They are all fast paced, low cost projects managed by Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) teamed with successful industry partners. MSFC has long been synonymous with human space flight large propulsion programs, engineering acumen and risk intolerance. However, there is a growing portfolio/product line within MSFC that focuses on these smaller, fast paced projects. While launching anything into space is expensive, using a managed risk posture, holding to schedule and keeping costs low by stopping at egood enough f were key elements to their success. Risk is defined as the possibility of loss or failure per Merriam Webster. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk using procedural requirement 8705.4 and establishes eclasses f to discern the acceptable risk per a project. It states a Class D risk has a medium to significant risk of not achieving mission success. MSFC, along with industry partners, has created a niche in Class D efforts. How did the big, cautious MSFC succeed on these projects that embodied the antithesis of its heritage in human space flight? A key factor toward these successful projects was innovative industry partners such as Dynetics Corporation, University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville), Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU APL), Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE), Von Braun Center for Science and Innovation (VCSI), SAIC, and Jacobs. Fast Affordable Satellite Technology (FastSat HSV01) is a low earth orbit microsatellite that houses six instruments with the primary scientific objective of earth observation and technology demonstration. The team was comprised of Dynetics, UAHuntsvile, SAIC, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and VCSI with the United States Air Force Space Test Program as the customer. The team completed design, development, manufacturing, environmental test and integration in one year. FastSat HSV01 also deployed a Poly Picosatellite Orbital Deployer (PPOD) for a separate nano ]satellite class spacecraft (Cubesat: Nano Sail Demonstration) in partnership with Ames Research Center. The Robotic lunar lander is a MSFC JHU APL partnership that led to the development of a flexible architecture for landers to support robotic missions to a wide range of lunar and asteroid destinations. The team started with the goal of meeting NASA agency directives that led to the creation of a test bed focusing on GN&C and software to demonstrate the descent and landing on any airless body for the final 30 to 60 meters. The team created a complex technology demonstration as well as Guidance Control and Navigation (GN&C) algorithms providing autonomous control of the lander. The team uses a green propellant of 90% hydrogen peroxide and has completed 18 successful test flights. The International Space Station (ISS) SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System (ISERV) is a technology demonstration payload to assist the SERVIR project with environmental monitoring for disaster relief and humanitarian efforts. The ISERV project was a partnership with TBE. The ISERV payload consists of a commercial off the shelf camera, telescope, and MSFC developed power distribution box and interfaces on ISS with the Window Observational Research Facility in the US Lab. MSFC has identified three key areas that enabled the low cost mission success to include culture, partnering, and cost/schedule control. This paper will briefly discuss these three Class D efforts, FastSat HSV-01, the Robotic Lunar Lander and the ISERV camera system, the lessons learned, their successes and challenges.

Watson-Morgan, Lisa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Solar System (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

GTI Energy (GTI) teamed with the University of California at Merced (UCM) to scaleup the hybrid solar system (HSS) technology for demonstrating its performance at the US Gypsum (USG) plant in Plaster City, California. The technology integrates two-stage concentrating solar collector with matching particle thermal transport and storage (TSS) system to deliver cost-effective, and on-demand distributed high temperature industrial process heat up to 600°C with solar thermal, in this case to a gypsum kettle, to reduce its fuel use and carbon footprint. Current solar technologies, which reach these temperatures, are not distributable (towers) or cost-effective (dish). The research team developed a conceptual system design for host site retrofit, including preliminary heat balance, process flow diagram, particle to process heat exchanger and equipment placements at the site. Subsequently, parallel efforts were carried out at UCM to design, build and test a 12 m long commercial scale prototype concentrating thermal-only collector system and at GTI to design, build and test a matching 650°C capable particle TTS system. The nominal 50 kWth collector consists of a parabolic trough and three 4 m long two-stage receivers in series. Prior to on-sun testing, a 4 m long receiver was fabricated and successfully tested at 650 °C in a laboratory setting for 100 hrs of continuous operation showing less than 15% radiation loss. A 7 m wide x 17 m long parabolic trough was then installed at UCM for on-sun testing of the 12 m long receiver, and concurrently several 4 m long receivers were built. The optics of the parabolic trough were calibrated, and on-sun test were carried out on 12 m long receivers. During tests, the intense solar radiation (53x) caused the absorber tubes in the receivers to bend, reducing the overall optical efficiency. To address the bending issue, a self-consistent algorithm that includes ray tracing, thermal and deformation models was developed to perform thermal stress analysis on absorbers for parabolic solar collectors. Results obtained with this algorithm showed a dramatic rise in deformation as absorber tube length increases. A combined efficiency parameter that includes the occluded area for the mounts was developed to obtain an optimized tube length obtained. Based on the results, a length of 2.7 m for the absorber + 0.2 m for the coupler was chosen to minimize any bending and optimize optical efficiency while maintaining ease of mounting. The associated particle TTS system was designed, built and successfully tested at GTI. It includes storage, receiving and lock hoppers and piping that simulates the transfer of captured solar energy to an actual industrial furnace. Tests over 77 charge-discharge cycles demonstrated <2% particle degradation, with no problematic particle accumulations and no flow interruptions. The piping pressure drop was about 5 psi. The team also worked with Stanley Consultants (Stanley) to prepare conceptual and preliminary engineering packages to facilitate follow-on development and commercialization efforts. These include process and instrumentation diagram’s (P&ID’s), general arrangements, electrical one-line, project definitions document, equipment data sheets, schedule, and construction cost estimate for 2 MWth system. Updated HSS technology commercialization and customer engagement plans and detailed costs and evaluated market trade-offs and manufacturing.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Work on Planetary Atmospheres and Planetary Atmosphere Probes

A major objective of the grant was to complete the fabrication, test, and evaluation of the atmosphere structure experiment on the Galileo Probe, and to receive, analyze, and interpret data received from the spacecraft. The grantee was competitively selected to be Principal Investigator of Jupiter's atmosphere structure on the Galileo Probe. His primary motivation was to learn as much as possible about Jupiter's atmosphere by means of a successful atmosphere structure experiment, and to support the needs and schedule of the Galileo Project. After a number of launch delays, the Flight instrument was shipped to Kennedy Space Center 2 years after the start of this collaboration, on April 14, 1989, at which time it was determined from System level tests of the ASI on the Probe that the instrument was in good working order and ready for flight. The spacecraft was launched on October 18, 1989. Data analysis of test and calibration data taken over a period of years of instrument testing was continued in preparation for the encounter. The initial instrument checkout in space was performed on October 26, 1989. The data set received by telemetry was thoroughly analyzed, and a report of the findings was transmitted to the Probe Operations Office on Feb. 28, 1990. Key findings reported were that the accelerometer biases had shifted by less than 1 mg through launch and since calibration at Bell Aerospace in 1983; accelerometer scale factors, evaluated by means of calibration currents, fell on lines of variation with temperature established in laboratory calibrations; pressure sensor offsets, correlated as a function of temperature, fell generally within the limits of several years of ground test data; atmospheric and engineering temperature sensor data were internally consistent within a few tenths of a degree; and the instrument electronics performed all expected functions without any observable fault. Altogether, this checkout was highly encouraging of the prospects of instrument performance, although performed greater than 5 years prior to Jupiter encounter. Capability of decoding the science data from the Experiment Data Record to be provided at encounter was developed and exercised using the tape recording of the first Cruise Checkout data. A team effort was organized to program the selection and combination of data words defining pressure, temperature, acceleration, turbulence, and engineering quantities; to apply decalibration algorithms to convert readings from digital numbers to physical quantities; and to organize the data into a suitable printout. A paper on the Galileo Atmosphere Structure Instrument was written and submitted for publication in a special issue of Space Science Reviews. At the Journal editor's request, the grantee reviewed other Probe instrument papers submitted for this special issue. Calibration data were carefully taken for all experiment sensors and accumulated over a period of 10 years. The data were analyzed, fitted with algorithms, and summarized in a calibration report for use in analyzing and interpreting data returned from Jupiter's atmosphere. The sensors included were the primary science pressure, temperature, and acceleration sensors, and the supporting engineering temperature sensors. This report was distributed to experiment coinvestigators and the Probe Project Office.

Seiff, Alvin↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fluid Shifts: Otoacoustical Emission Changes in Response to Posture and Lower Body Negative Pressure

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of the NASA Fluid Shifts Study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to correlate these findings with vision changes and other elements of the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. VIIP signs and symptoms, as well as postflight lumbar puncture data, suggest that elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) may be associated with spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. Due to the invasive nature of direct measures of ICP, a noninvasive technique of monitoring ICP is desired for use during spaceflight. The phase angle and amplitude of otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) have been shown to be sensitive to posture change and ICP (1, 2), therefore use of OAEs is an attractive option. OAEs are low-level sounds produced by the sensory cells of the cochlea in response to auditory stimulation. These sounds travel peripherally from the cochlea, through the oval window, to the ear canal where they can be recorded. OAE transmission is sensitive to changes in the stiffness of the oval window, occurring as a result of changes in cochlear pressure. Increased stiffness of the oval window largely affects the transmission of sound from the cochlea at frequencies between 800 Hz and 1600 Hz. OAEs can be self-recorded in the laboratory or on the ISS using a handheld device. Our primary objectives regarding OAE measures in this experiment were to 1) validate this method during preflight testing of each crewmember (while sitting, supine and in head-down tilt position), and 2) determine if OAE measures (and presumably ICP) are responsive to lower body negative pressure and to spaceflight. METHODS: Distortion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) and transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) were recorded preflight using the Otoport Advance OAE system (Otodynamics Ltd., Hatfield, UK). Data were collected in four conditions (seated, supine, 15 degrees head down tilt (HDT), and 15 degrees HDT with lower body negative pressure (LBNP)) to produce a range of ICP in each subject and test the susceptibility of OAEs to LBNP. LBNP was induced using the Russian Chibis suit to produce the same fit and pressures that would be experienced inflight during Chibis LBNP trials. Similar trials have occurred inflight on the ISS. A comparative analysis of preflight and inflight phase measurements and magnitudes was completed in both broad and narrow band frequency ranges. RESULTS: TEOAE data demonstrated notable phase shifts from 859-1640 Hz when the seated baseline condition is compared to supine, HDT, and HDT plus Chibis conditions. Changes were particularly pronounced at low frequencies and were consistent with the expected ICP changes. Preflight DPOAE magnitude data revealed changes consistent with increased ICP in two conditions at 1414 Hz, where a magnitude change (relative to the seated condition) was seen in the HDT position and in HDT plus Chibis. DISCUSSION: OAEs revealed systematic changes in phase and magnitude throughout all test conditions (including use of Chibis LBNP) that were consistent with ICP changes. Results indicate that OAEs may provide a rapid noninvasive means of monitoring ICP changes. The first two subjects are projected to complete inflight testing on the ISS in early 2016, with the full complement of 10 subjects scheduled to be complete in 2018.

Melgoza, R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

ISS And Space Environment Interactions Without Operating Plasma Contactor

The International Space Station (ISS) will be the largest, highest power spacecraft placed in orbit. Because of this the design of the electrical power system diverged markedly from previous systems. The solar arrays will operate at 160 V and the power distribution voltage will be 120 V. The structure is grounded to the negative side of the solar arrays so under the right circumstances it is possible to drive the ISS potential very negative. A plasma contactor has been added to the ISS to provide control of the ISS structure potential relative to the ambient plasma. The ISS requirement is that the ISS structure not be greater than 40 V positive or negative of local plasma. What are the ramifications of operating large structures with such high voltage power systems? The application of a plasma contactor on ISS controls the potential between the structure and the local plasma, preventing degrading effects. It is conceivable that there can be situations where the plasma contactor might be non-functional. This might be due to lack of power, the need to turn it off during some of the build-up sequences, the loss of functionality for both plasma contactors before a replacement can be installed, similar circumstances. A study was undertaken to understand how important it is to have the contactor functioning and how long it might be off before unacceptable degradation to ISS could occur. The details of interaction effects on spacecraft have not been addressed until driven by design. This was true for ISS. If the structure is allowed to float highly negative impinging ions can sputter exposed conductors which can degrade the primary surface and also generate contamination due to the sputtered material. Arcing has been known to occur on solar arrays that float negative of the ambient plasma. This can also generate electromagnetic interference and voltage transients. Much of the ISS structure and pressure module surfaces exposed to space is anodized aluminum. The anodization thickness is very thin to provide the required solar absorptance and emittance. For conditions where ISS structure can charge negative a large percentage of the array voltage, the dielectric strength of this layer is low, and dielectric breakdown (arcing) can occur. The energy stored capacitively in the structure can be delivered to the arc. The mechanisms by which this energy is delivered and how much of the energy is available hasn't been fully quantified. Questions have been raised regarding the possibility of whether a sustained arc might result due to current collected by the solar arrays from local plasma. It was postulated that even if dielectric breakdown didn't occur, impacts due to micrometeoroids and space debris could penetrate thin layers of dielectric on ISS and initiate an arc due to the coupling provided by the dense local plasma produced by the impact. This was proven in experiments conducted jointly by MSFC and Auburn University. A target chamber with a simulated ionospheric plasma and a biased, anodized aluminum plate and a 1-microfarad capacitor was used. The plate was then impacted by 75-micron particles accelerated to orbital velocity. Arc discharges were sustained for higher voltages but a threshold appears below which no discharge was initiated. Most items without an exposed power system will float electrically near the local plasma potential. This is true of the Space Shuttle, an Astronaut on EVA, and similar items. The structure of ISS might be at a large negative voltage. Therefore, capacitively stored energy can be transferred during docking, installing external boxes and equipment and Astronaut contact with ISS structure. The circumstances of when this can happen and the resulting effects are evaluated in this study. Also, a crewmember on EVA might be in the vicinity of an arc. All safety aspects of such an encounter including charging, molten particles from the arc site and EMI have been evaluated. This paper will report on the total results of this study focussed on the 4A configuration, scheduled to be complete in November, 2000. Interactions such as arcing, debris induced arcs, sustained arcs, sputtering, contamination from sputtering and arcing, docking interactions and Astronaut safety issues will all be addressed.

Carruth, M. R., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Digital Twin Model for Advanced Manufacture of a Rotating Detonation Engine Injector

A digital twin material model (DTMM) of an additive manufacturing (AM) process was created to advance the state of the art in rotating detonation engine (RDE) injector design. Current RDE injectors are designed with large pressure drops, enabling a stable and repeatable combustion process. However, this comes at the cost of system efficiency. For the technology to transition to commercial fossil-based power generation, it is important to develop injectors with reduced flow losses. Low-loss injectors are difficult to design and manufacture with conventional manufacturing techniques. AM enables new design options, but the AM manufacturing process must be thoroughly understood to result in a robust design. A DTMM provides the necessary insight by defining the cause-effect relationships between process parameters, microstructure features, and properties. Therefore, a DTMM to support the design and manufacturing process was developed and applied to the design of a new additively manufactured low-loss injector. The injector combustion behavior was characterized through hot-fire tests, and mechanical performance was compared to the DTMM predictions. The two project goals were the successful development of the DTMM and the demonstration of an improved RDE injector design. The RDE injector design and DTMM developments occurred on parallel but dependent paths. The injector was designed to reduce pressure drop by increasing the cross-sectional flow area ratio between the injector air passages and the combustor annulus. This resulted in less structural material, raising the concern that thin members would be susceptible to high-cycle fatigue (HCF) under the periodic loading inherent to an RDE. It was most important for the DTMM to predict behavior in these features; therefore, the injector design concept guided the material thicknesses used in fatigue tests. The DTMM development started by manufacturing a series of coupons over the range of possible AM process variations. A design-of-experiment approach was used to select which process variable combinations gave the most efficient coverage relevant to the injector design space. The microstructure in each of these coupons was characterized, and then computational methods were used to create a numerical model of the correlation between process variables and microstructure. Next, a set of HCF samples were tested to calibrate existing models that map microstructure to HCF performance. Together, these two links formed the DTMM that calculates HCF behavior from AM process variables. Two injector prototypes were additively manufactured. The first injector design strategy aggressively pursued low-loss performance by substantially increasing the oxidizer flow area. The combination of manufacturing lead times and the fatigue testing schedule meant that the DTMM was not available when building this first prototype. Therefore, its process parameters were chosen based on a manual review of the available coupon data. This prototype was built successfully and evaluated in 58 combustion tests. Sustained detonation was achieved with remarkably reduced pressure loss, and some tests even displayed pressure loss characteristics similar to conventional gas turbine combustors. This achieved the project goal of improving RDE injector design. The second injector was manufactured according to the optimized parameters predicted by the DTMM. The flow area modifications of this injector were less aggressive than the first injector since demonstrating low pressure loss was not an objective of the second hot-fire test series. Rather, the test objective was to cause high cycle fatigue failure in the part due to periodic loading from the rotating detonation wave. The observed number of cycles to failure was to be compared to the number predicted by the DTMM and thereby assess the utility of the DTMM in component design. However, the required level of vibration was not obtained during combustion. Therefore, high cycle fatigue was not experienced in the hot-fire tests of the second injector. Fatigue data was obtained by further testing the second injector in a conventional HCF test apparatus. The injector demonstrated HCF strength above the DTMM prediction. In fact, it did not fail and testing was only discontinued due to reaching the end of the period of performance. This points to some success in the project’s primary goal of successfully developing and applying the DTMM to a component design. Implementing the DTMM recommendations for optimal processing parameters led to a part with acceptable properties. The DTMM was also shown to be an efficient correlator of data and to provide insight into the relationship between process settings, microstructure, and property performance. However, the failure of the DTMM prediction to match the experimental result of the injector fatigue test also points to the need to include significantly more data in the model development. In this project, coupons made with identical processing parameters exhibited drastically different properties from each other and from the injector part, which clearly influences the accuracy of a model that predicts performance based on parameters. Uncertainties in the build process must be quantified to develop more robust models. A denser and broader matrix of coupon process and geometry variations, several repeated builds of every point, more in-situ build process measurements, and direct observation of tensile and HCF sample microstructure (as opposed to separate microstructure specimens) are recommendations to improve future AM modeling efforts.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗