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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Evaluating State Space Discovery by Persistent Cohomology in the Spatial Representation System

Persistent cohomology is a powerful technique for discovering topological structure in data. Strategies for its use in neuroscience are still undergoing development. We comprehensively and rigorously assess its performance in simulated neural recordings of the brain's spatial representation system. Grid, head direction, and conjunctive cell populations each span low-dimensional topological structures embedded in high-dimensional neural activity space. We evaluate the ability for persistent cohomology to discover these structures for different dataset dimensions, variations in spatial tuning, and forms of noise. We quantify its ability to decode simulated animal trajectories contained within these topological structures. We also identify regimes under which mixtures of populations form product topologies that can be detected. Our results reveal how dataset parameters affect the success of topological discovery and suggest principles for applying persistent cohomology, as well as persistent homology, to experimental neural recordings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using Eye Tracking to Elucidate the Mechanisms Underlying Stimulation-Enhanced Visual Target Detection

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a noninvasive form of brain stimulation that involves passing a weak electrical current between electrodes on the scalp to modulate underlying neural tissue. TDCS has been shown to modulate cognition in a variety of domains, including memory, attention, and visual processing. Prior work from our laboratory has shown positive effects of tDCS on learning to detect target objects hidden in complex naturalistic visual scenes and learn rules for categorizing images, though the mechanism for these benefits remains unknown. One possibility is that tDCS optimizes visual search by modulating visual attention or via the reduction in search errors. One method of quantifying visual attention is to use eye tracking to record search patterns to determine if and how visual search is adjusted under verum stimulation conditions. Eye tracking data allows classification of errors into error types, including sampling errors (failing to look in the relevant region), recognition errors (looking at the critical portion of a scene, but failing to recognize it as such as evidenced by visual fixation), and decision-making errors (fixating on the relevant portion of a scene, but making the wrong determination). Our results indicate that the benefit tDCS confers on visual search for targets stems from the reduction in decision-making errors when targets are present (Cohen’s d = 0.86). Also reported is a replication of previous findings showing a tDCS-dependent improvement in learning this task, learning score (Cohen’s d = 0.88); d’ (Cohen’s d = 1.00). This provides support for moving tDCS into the application space by pairing it with analysts who are concerned with the type of search error that is corrected via stimulation.

attention↗

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine learning for nonintrusive model order reduction of the parametric inviscid transonic flow past an airfoil

Fluid flow in the transonic regime finds relevance in aerospace engineering, particularly in the design of commercial air transportation vehicles. Computational fluid dynamics models of transonic flow for aerospace applications are computationally expensive to solve because of the high degrees of freedom as well as the coupled nature of the conservation laws. While these issues pose a bottleneck for the use of such models in aerospace design, computational costs can be significantly minimized by constructing special, structure-preserving surrogate models called reduced-order models. In this work, we propose a machine learning method to construct reduced-order models via deep neural networks and we demonstrate its ability to preserve accuracy with a significantly lower computational cost. In addition, our machine learning methodology is physics-informed and constrained through the utilization of an interpretable encoding by way of proper orthogonal decomposition. Application to the inviscid transonic flow past the RAE2822 airfoil under varying freestream Mach numbers and angles of attack, as well as airfoil shape parameters with a deforming mesh, shows that the proposed approach adapts to high-dimensional parameter variation well. Notably, the proposed framework precludes the knowledge of numerical operators utilized in the data generation phase, thereby demonstrating its potential utility in the fast exploration of design space for diverse engineering applications. Comparison against a projection-based nonintrusive model order reduction method demonstrates that the proposed approach produces comparable accuracy and yet is orders of magnitude computationally cheap to evaluate, despite being agnostic to the physics of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Computational Procedure for Assessing I$_{c}(\varepsilon$) in Nb$_{3}$Sn/Bi-2212 Hybrid Magnets

The critical current of superconductors is commonly measured by testing unloaded wires under an external magnetic field. While stressed by intense Lorentz forces, the existing HTS/LTS superconductors are prone to a reduction in critical current before reaching their structural mechanical limit. Here, in this work, the magnetic and mechanical analysis of the FNAL 4-layer Bi-2212/Nb$_{3}$Sn hybrid dipole magnet is reported, aimed at predicting the critical current degradation for both the superconductors during powering at 16T. All the Rutherford cables in the coils of the hybrid magnet were modeled at the strand level in Ansys APDL with the heterogeneous cable model. Utilizing this detailed geometry, it was possible to evaluate the effects of strain on the critical current degradation for both the Nb$_{3}$Sn and Bi-2212 superconductors under the intense Lorentz forces. The analysis presented in this paper integrates strain-dependent critical current laws, with parameters derived from experimental data, to simulate the hybrid magnet's performance for all possible current-powering configurations. The proposed methodology enables a detailed assessment of conductor integrity and I$_{C}(\varepsilon$) reduction in existing hybrid magnet designs, providing a versatile and rigorous framework for optimizing future high-field hybrid magnets.

D'Agliano, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Enhanced detection of paramagnetic fluorine-19 magnetic resonance imaging agents using zero echo time sequence and compressed sensing

Fluorine-19 ( 19 F) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an emerging technique offering specific detection of labeled cells in vivo. Lengthy acquisition times and modest signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) makes three-dimensional spin-density–weighted 19 F imaging challenging. Recent advances in tracer paramagnetic metallo-perfluorocarbon (MPFC) nanoemulsion probes have shown multifold SNR improvements due to an accelerated 19 F T 1 relaxation rate and a commensurate gain in imaging speed and averages. However, 19 F T 2 -reduction and increased linewidth limit the amount of metal additive in MPFC probes, thus constraining the ultimate SNR. To overcome these barriers, we describe a compressed sampling (CS) scheme, implemented using a “zero” echo time (ZTE) sequence, with data reconstructed via a sparsity-promoting algorithm. Our CS-ZTE scheme acquires k-space data using an undersampled spherical radial pattern and signal averaging. Image reconstruction employs off-the-shelf sparse solvers to solve a joint total variation and -norm regularized least square problem. To evaluate CS-ZTE, we performed simulations and acquired 19 F MRI data at 11.7 T in phantoms and mice receiving MPFC-labeled dendritic cells. For MPFC-labeled cells in vivo, we show SNR gains of ~6.3 × with 8-fold undersampling. We show that this enhancement is due to three mechanisms including undersampling and commensurate increase in signal averaging in a fixed scan time, denoising attributes from the CS algorithm, and paramagnetic reduction of T 1 . Importantly, 19 F image intensity analyses yield accurate estimates of absolute quantification of 19 F spins. Overall, the CS-ZTE method using MPFC probes achieves ultrafast imaging, a substantial boost in detection sensitivity, accurate 19 F spin quantification, and minimal image artifacts.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Challenges in Tracking Waste Reduction Performance Improvement in Manufacturing Plants

The recently released Circularity Gap Report 2023 by Circle Economy Foundation found that the circularity score for the global economy is declining. This indicates that material extraction from virgin sources is climbing over earlier years. As per data released by US Geological Survey, material use in the US economy has increased exponentially with the expanding US economy over last century. EPA tracked municipal solid waste from 1960 to 2018 and found that 50% of the waste is destined for landfills. EPA estimates that US industry is responsible for 2.7 billion ton of solid non-hazardous waste annually in our mostly linear economy model. The circular economy framework aims at decoupling economic value generation from virgin materials extraction from nature. The linear model of material extraction and disposal at end of life is highly unsustainable. Manufacturing companies have realized this and in their commitments to sustainability are adopting ambitious waste reduction targets. Through Better Plants program US Department of Energy has established Waste Reduction Network where it is offering technical assistance to partners to achieve these ambitious waste reduction goals. Basic requirements of establishing a target include identifying a baseline, quantifying waste performance, and measuring progress over time. One problem faced by industry is the unstandardized metrics to quantify waste performance that may not be well suited to demonstrate progress. In this paper, we research methods traditionally used to measure waste performance and highlight advantages, gaps and limitations of each method. Suitability of the methods applicable to different manufacturing circumstances are also examined. Finally, we present a case study of a large manufacturer that faced inconsistencies in their tracked measurement metric. A solution was proposed to alter the methodology to enable more accurate waste performance tracking against a baseline.

Chaudhari, Subodh↗

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen activation by rhodium under the cover of a copper oxide thin film

Here, the activation of reactants by catalytically active metal sites at metal-oxide interfaces is important for understanding the effect of metal-support interactions on nanoparticle catalysts and for tuning activity and selectivity. Using a combined experimental and theoretical approach, we studied the activation of H 2 and the effect of CO poisoning on isolated Rh atoms completely or partially covered by a copper oxide (Cu 2 O) thin film. Temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) experiments conducted in ultra-high vacuum (UHV) show that neither a partially nor a fully oxidized Cu 2 O layer grown on a Rh/Cu(111) single-atom alloy can activate hydrogen in UHV. However, in situ ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (AP-XPS) experiments performed at elevated H 2 pressures reveal that Rh significantly accelerates the reduction of these Cu 2 O thin films by hydrogen. Remarkably, the fastest reduction rate is observed for the fully oxidized sample with all Rh sites covered by Cu 2 O. Both TPD and AP-XPS data demonstrate that these covered Rh sites are inaccessible to CO, indicating that Rh under Cu 2 O is active for H 2 dissociation but cannot be poisoned by CO. In contrast, an incomplete oxide film leaves some of the Rh sites exposed and accessible to CO, and hence prone to CO poisoning. Density functional theory calculations demonstrate that unlike many reactions in which hydrogen activation is rate limiting, the rate-determining step in the dissociation of H 2 on thin-film Cu 2 O with Rh underneath is the adsorption of H 2 on the buried Rh site, and once adsorbed, the dissociation of H 2 is barrierless. These calculations also explain why H 2 can only be activated at higher pressures. Together, these results highlight how different the reactivity of atomically dispersed Rh in Cu can be depending on its accessibility through the oxide layer, providing a way to engineer Rh sites that are active for hydrogen activation but resilient to CO poisoning.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics-guided logistic classification for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining

This paper describes a physics-guided logistic classification method for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining. Tool life is modeled using a classification method since the exact tool life cannot be measured in a typical production environment where tool wear can only be directly measured when the tool is replaced. Here, in this study, laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate tool wear data normally collected during part production. Two states are defined: tool not worn (class 0) and tool worn (class 1). The non-linear reduction in tool life with cutting speed is modeled by applying a logarithmic transformation to the inputs for the logistic classification model. A method for interpretability of the logistic model coefficients is provided by comparison with the empirical Taylor tool life model. The method is validated using tool wear experiments for milling. Results show that the physics-guided logistic classification method can predict tool life using limited datasets. A method for pre-process optimization of machining parameters using a probabilistic machining cost model is presented. The proposed method offers a robust and practical approach to tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in a production environment.

Machine learning↗

23.4% monolithic epitaxial GaAsP/Si tandem solar cells and quantification of losses from threading dislocations

A 2-terminal, dual-junction, epitaxially integrated, GaAsP/Si tandem solar cell with an 3rd party certified efficiency of 23.4 % was fabricated via MOCVD growth on an ex-situ produced Si sub cell. The drastic efficiency improvement over the authors previous peer-reviewed demonstration of such a device architecture is examined. Critical advancements in top cell design to maximize short wavelength response were critical in enabling improved top cell response. An in-depth analysis of this champion tandem cell has identified key loss mechanisms which elucidate the pathway for further efficiency gains. First, voltage dependent collection efficiency in the GaAsP top cell is the primary cause of fill factor losses currently limiting efficiency. Analysis of spectrally resolved I–V measurements and analytical device modeling and indicate poor diffusion length due to elevated dislocation densities as the likely cause for the voltage dependent collection efficiency. Second, modeling for the GaAs 0.75 P 0.25 top cell, using experimental data at multiple dislocation densities, provides quantitative understanding of the current and voltage losses associated with threading dislocations providing a clear efficiency pathway with reduction in dislocation density. Finally, Si subcell modeling identifies the pathway for further Si subcell advances over the present, simplistic design, which has yet to employ the known benefits of rear surface texture or dielectric passivation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High temperature gamma radiation-induced chromium redox chemistry via in situ spectroscopic measurements

Chromium ions can make their way into the primary coolant of nuclear power reactors from the corrosion of stainless-steel reactor components, decreasing the material's corrosion resistance and resulting in increased transport of further corrosion products. Despite these potential effects, the radiation-induced redox speciation of chromium ions in aqueous solution is not well understood, especially at the elevated temperatures experienced by reactor coolants. Here, in the present work, we report new experimental results demonstrating that in aerated aqueous solution, the radiolytic oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI) occurs at pH 4, while the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) occurs at pH 2. The oxidation of Cr(III) is primarily attributed to the reaction of the hydroxyl radical (˙OH) with the Cr(OH) 2+ species, while the reduction of Cr(VI) is attributed to reactions involving the hydrated electron (e aq - ) and hydrogen atom (H˙). Additionally, the steady-state equilibrium yield of Cr(VI) from the gamma irradiation of pH 4 Cr(III) solutions decreased with increasing temperature (over a range of 37–195 °C). This observation indicates that the activation energy of the Cr(VI) reduction reactions is higher than that for the Cr(III) oxidation reactions, such that it becomes relatively more favorable at higher temperatures. Overall, these data are important for the development of complementary multiscale models for the prediction of metal ion speciation in high temperature radiation environments.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Accelerating particle-in-cell kinetic plasma simulations via reduced-order modeling of space-charge dynamics using dynamic mode decomposition

We present a data-driven reduced-order modeling of the space-charge dynamics for electromagnetic particle-in-cell (EMPIC) plasma simulations based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). The dynamics of the charged particles in kinetic plasma simulations such as EMPIC is manifested through the plasma current density defined along the edges of the spatial mesh. We showcase the efficacy of DMD in modeling the time evolution of current density through a low-dimensional feature space. Not only do such DMD based predictive reduced-order models help accelerate EMPIC simulations, they also have the potential to facilitate investigative analysis and control applications. Here, we demonstrate the proposed DMD-EMPIC scheme for reduced-order modeling of current density and speedup in EMPIC simulations involving electron beam under the influence of magnetic field, virtual cathode oscillations, and backward wave oscillator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time-series dissolved oxygen, other bigeochemically-relevant analytes, and pressure gradients associated with the manuscript “Dissolved oxygen sensor in an automated hyporheic sampling system reveals biogeochemical dynamics”

This dataset contains time-series data from a vertical profile within the bed and banks of the Columbia river near Richland, WA. Water was sampled through 3 small tubes embedded in the sediment at 50,100, and 200 cm below the sediment-water interface. The goal of this study was to observe the correlations between hydraulic drivers and biogeochemical responses. The results of this study are published in the manuscript “Dissolved oxygen sensor in an automated hyporheic sampling system reveals biogeochemical dynamics”. The file types included in the data package are all time-series spreadsheet data, including hydraulic head gradients, physical parameters (temperature, pressure, SpC (specific conductivity)), and biogeochemical parameters (dissolved oxygen, pH, NO3 (nitrate) and ORP (oxidation-reduction potential)).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Powertrain Performance and Total Cost of Ownership Analysis for Class 8 Yard Tractors and Refuse Trucks

Advanced powertrain technologies, specifically fuel cell electric powertrains, have gained attention as viable alternatives for medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles. However, it is unclear how these alternative powertrain vehicles stack up against their diesel counterparts in terms of performance and total cost of ownership (TCO). Furthermore, there are vehicle segments within the M/HD sector that have remained unstudied for fuel cell electric applications. This analysis aims to provide a comparative scoping-level TCO and performance analysis for two heavy-duty vocation vehicles (Class 8 U.S. port-side yard tractor and Class 8 U.S.-based refuse truck) for both conventional diesel and heavy-duty fuel cell electric (HDFC) powertrains. The refuse truck analysis also considered compressed natural gas powertrains (CNG) for comparison. The analysis includes seven timeframes (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050) for comparison. This simplified TCO analysis includes only direct costs (fuel price, glider purchase price, and operating & maintenance costs) and excludes any associated indirect cost (e.g., dwell time costs and other opportunity based costs). Representative drive cycles for each vehicle were based on on-board GPS logged data and chosen by the analysis team to represent average, non-extreme driving conditions. At the time the analysis was performed, the Inflation Reduction Act was not in effect and therefore any potential subsidies and future cost reductions enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act were not included. Based on the operational setpoints used in this analysis, HDFC powertrains for both yard tractors and refuse trucks have the potential to achieve TCO advantages over conventional diesel powertrains (and CNG for refuse truck applications) in the near- to mid-term future while meeting the necessary duty cycle performance requirements. Yard tractors and refuse trucks spend a significant amount of time operating at low speeds, with long durations of idling, and experience numerous start/stop occurrences. These operational characteristics favor fuel cell performance as fuel cells operate with higher efficiencies at lower percentages of total power output. Conversely, conventional diesel and CNG engines are most efficient at higher percentages of total power output. This helps HDFC powered yard tractors and refuse trucks realize improved fuel economy when compared to their diesel counterparts, which helps reduce total fuel costs and therefore, total TCO. The analysis demonstrates that fuel prices play a significant role in determining TCO for each vehicle and should remain an R&D focus area. Overall, under the analysis' specified conditions, HDFC yard tractors have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel yard tractors as early as 2025. For refuse trucks, HDFC refuse trucks have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel and CNG refuse trucks in 2030 and 2040, respectively.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗