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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Absence of clinical disease and contact transmission of HPAI H5NX clade 2.3.4.4 from North America in experimentally infected pigs

Background In the fall of 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 was introduced into North America by migrating waterfowl from Asia where, through reassortment, novel HPAI H5N2 and H5N1 viruses emerged. Objectives Assess the susceptibility of pigs to HPAI H5N1, H5N2, and H5N8 clade 2.3.3.3 from North America. Methods Pigs and trachea explants were inoculated with a representative panel of H5NX clade 2.3.4.4 HPAI viruses from North America. Nasal swabs, BALF, and sera were collected to assess replication and transmission in challenged and direct contact pigs by RRT‐PCR, virus isolation, hemagglutination inhibition, and ELISA. Results Limited virus replication was restricted to the lower respiratory tract of challenged pigs, though absent in the nasal passages and trachea cultures, as determined by RRT‐PCR in all samples. Seroconversion of inoculated pigs was detected by NP ELISA but was not reliably detected by antigen‐specific hemagglutination inhibition. Boost with adjuvanted virus was required for the production of neutralizing antibodies to assess cross‐reactivity between wild‐type avian strains. All RRT‐PCR and serology tests were negative for contact animals indicating a failure of transmission from primary inoculated pigs. Conclusions H5NX clade 2.3.4.4 strains can replicate in the lower respiratory tract of swine upon high titer inoculation, though appear to be incapable of replication in swine nasal epithelium in vivo or ex vivo in trachea explants in culture. Infected pigs did not produce high levels of serum antibodies following infection. Collectively, our data show HPAI H5NX clade 2.3.4.4 viruses to be poorly adapted for replication and transmission in swine.

H5↗

Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities

Novel data streams (NDS), such as web search data or social media updates, hold promise for enhancing the capabilities of public health surveillance. In this paper, we outline a conceptual framework for integrating NDS into current public health surveillance. Our approach focuses on two key questions: What are the opportunities for using NDS and what are the minimal tests of validity and utility that must be applied when using NDS? Identifying these opportunities will necessitate the involvement of public health authorities and an appreciation of the diversity of objectives and scales across agencies at different levels (local, state, national, international). We present the case that clearly articulating surveillance objectives and systematically evaluating NDS and comparing the performance of NDS to existing surveillance data and alternative NDS data is critical and has not sufficiently been addressed in many applications of NDS currently in the literature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

ZIKV – CDB: A Collaborative Database to Guide Research Linking SncRNAs and ZIKA Virus Disease Symptoms

Background In early 2015, a ZIKA Virus (ZIKV) infection outbreak was recognized in northeast Brazil, where concerns over its possible links with infant microcephaly have been discussed. Providing a causal link between ZIKV infection and birth defects is still a challenge. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNAs (sncRNAs) that regulate post-transcriptional gene expression by translational repression, and play important roles in viral pathogenesis and brain development. The potential for flavivirus-mediated miRNA signalling dysfunction in brain-tissue development provides a compelling hypothesis to test the perceived link between ZIKV and microcephaly. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we applied in silico analyses to provide novel insights to understand how Congenital ZIKA Syndrome symptoms may be related to an imbalance in miRNAs function. Moreover, following World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations, we have assembled a database to help target investigations of the possible relationship between ZIKV symptoms and miRNA-mediated human gene expression. Conclusions/Significance We have computationally predicted both miRNAs encoded by ZIKV able to target genes in the human genome and cellular (human) miRNAs capable of interacting with ZIKV genomes. Our results represent a step forward in the ZIKV studies, providing new insights to support research in this field and identify potential targets for therapy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Contextualizing Data Streams for Infectious Disease Surveillance

To aid in developing a global biosurveillance program, it is critical to develop a framework to capture and understand the myriad of data streams and evaluate them in context of surveillance goals. Toward this goal, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a new method of evaluating the effectiveness of data stream types through the use of a novel concept called the surveillance window, a technique that integrates operational systems analysis, surveillance system analysis and epidemiological analysis. This study provides a simple, yet elegant methodology for which to ground truth known and emerging data streams for utility in integrated biosurveillance efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Self-reported coping behavior in health and disease: assessment with a card sort game

The authors tested the hypothesis that individuals with a variety of severe chronic illnesses and the healthy elderly exhibit a loss of flexibility in their response to a variety of stressors, compared with healthy adults. A card sort game designed to assess self-reported coping behavior under different stressful life situations was used to compare healthy adults with individuals with multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and the elderly. The healthy adults were found to exhibit more variability than any of the illness groups or the elderly. Healthy function is marked by a complex type of variability.

Non-NASA Center↗