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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflecometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

Bell, R.↗

Aeronet-based Microphysical and Optical Properties of Smoke-dominated Aerosol near Source Regions and Transported over Oceans, and Implications for Satellite Retrievals of Aerosol Optical Depth

Smoke aerosols from biomass burning are an important component of the global aerosol cycle. Analysis of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) retrievals of size distribution and refractive index reveals variety between biomass burning aerosols in different global source regions, in terms of aerosol particle size and single scatter albedo (SSA). Case studies of smoke transported to coastal/island AERONET sites also mostly lie within the range of variability at near-source sites. Two broad families of aerosol properties are found, corresponding to sites dominated by boreal forest burning (larger, broader fine mode, with midvisible SSA 0.95), and those influenced by grass, shrub, or crop burning with additional forest contributions (smaller, narrower particles with SSA 0.88-0.9 in the midvisible). The strongest absorption is seen in southern African savanna at Mongu (Zambia), with average SSA 0.85 in the midvisible. These can serve as candidate sets of aerosol microphysicaloptical properties for use in satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithms. The models presently adopted by these algorithms over ocean are often insufficiently absorbing to represent these biomass burning aerosols. A corollary of this is an underestimate of AOD in smoke outflow regions, which has important consequences for applications of these satellite datasets.

AERONET↗

Ecovoltaic solar energy development can promote grassland bird communities

Ecologically informed photovoltaic (PV) developments that co-prioritize PV electricity generation with ecosystem function (‘ecovoltaics’) have emerged as a promising land sharing strategy to minimize ecological conflicts associated with PV solar energy development. While habitat-focused ecovoltaic designs can conceptually benefit biodiversity by offsetting or enhancing impacts of PV development, foundational field research is needed to examine how wildlife respond to these novel ecosystems. We conducted passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in 2023 and 2024 at 13 solar facilities and paired control sites to investigate avian community responses to ecovoltaic facilities in the Midwestern United States. Compared to control sites (row crop agricultural fields), we found that ecovoltaic sites supported more grassland bird species throughout a 17-week monitoring period between May and September. Grassland bird communities on ecovoltaic sites were also more stable than on agricultural controls, as measured by the Jaccard dissimilarity index. We also used PAM-based weekly species occurrences in an occupancy-modelling framework to investigate the influence of PV development and other landscape variables on grassland bird occupancy. 10 out of 13 modelled grassland bird species had greater predicted occupancy probabilities (ψ) on PV sites than control sites. Synthesis and applications. Our findings suggest that properly sited and developed ecovoltaic solar facilities in human altered landscapes can improve habitat for birds and other wildlife, but further research is needed to understand which species may benefit most from these novel ecosystems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advances in automatic extraction of earth resources information from multispectral scanner data

The basis of spectral discrimination was briefly examined indicating sources of variability which tend to obscure the spectral attributes of the classes of interest. Spatial and temporal discrimination bases are also discussed. Automatic processing functions, techniques and methods, and equipment are discussed with emphasis on techniques and equipment required for operational large area surveys with satellite data. Techniques for carrying out major functions of preprocessing for signature extension, feature extraction, discrimination, display, and applications modeling were examined. A multiplicative and additive signature correction technique and a proportion estimation technique are discussed. The development of the multivariate interactive digital analysis system multispectral processor system which represents a breakthrough in cost effective high throughput processing for large area surveys from satellites and aircraft is reviewed. Applications and results are discussed briefly for agricultural crop inventories, environmental monitoring, and resources surveys from ERIM LANDSAT and EREP investigations to indicate the substantial progress achieved to date.

Erickson, J. D.↗

Evaluation of Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142 as a candidate for inclusion in a CELSS

Controlled ecological life support systems (CELSS) have been proposed to make long-duration manned space flights more cost-effective. Higher plants will presumably provide food and a breathable atmosphere for the crew. It has been suggested that imbalances between the CO2/O2 gas exchange ratios of the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of the system will inevitably lead to an unstable system, and the loss of O2 from the atmosphere. Ratio imbalances may be corrected by including a second autotroph with an appropriate CO2/O2 gas exchange ratio. Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142 is a large unicellular N2-fixing cyanobacterium, exhibiting high growth rates under diverse physiological conditions. A rat-feeding study showed the biomass to be edible. Furthermore, it may have a CO2/O2 gas exchange ratio that theoretically can compensate for ratio imbalances. It is suggested that Cyanothece spp. could fulfill several roles in a CELSS: supplementing atmosphere recycling, generating fixed N from the air, providing a balanced protein supplement, and protecting a CELSS in case of catastrophic crop failure.

Non-NASA Center↗

Have GRACE Satellites Overestimated Groundwater Depletion in the Northwest India Aquifer?

The Northwest India Aquifer (NWIA) has been shown to have the highest groundwater depletion (GWD) rate globally, threatening crop production and sustainability of groundwater resources. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have been emerging as a powerful tool to evaluate GWD with ancillary data. Accurate GWD estimation is, however, challenging because of uncertainties in GRACE data processing. We evaluated GWD rates over the NWIA using a variety of approaches, including newly developed constrained forward modeling resulting in a GWD rate of 3.1 plus or minus 0.1 centimeters per acre (or 14 plus or minus 0.4 cubic kilometers per acre) for Jan 2005-Dec 2010, consistent with the GWD rate (2.8 centimeters per acre or 12.3 cubic kilometers per acre) from groundwater-level monitoring data. Published studies (e.g., 4 plus or minus 1 centimeter per acre or 18 plus or minus 4.4 cubic kilometers per acre) may overestimate GWD over this region. This study highlights uncertainties in GWD estimates and the importance of incorporating a priori information to refine spatial patterns of GRACE signals that could be more useful in groundwater resource management and need to be paid more attention in future studies.

Long, Di↗

Spaceborne Lidar Retrievals of PM2.5 for Air Quality Studies and Applications

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) substantially contributes to air pollution and negatively affects human health. While many studies have investigated the use of passive column-integrated aerosol optical depth to infer surface PM2.5, the use of lidar observations for air quality characterization is not nearly as extensive. Lidar measurements are critical, however, due to the vertical aerosol information they provide, including near the surface. In this presentation, we first provide an overview of various lidar-based approaches for estimating PM2.5 concentrations and then discuss how lidar measurements can assist other air quality applications. For example, estimates of PM2.5 have been obtained in a physics-based approach through CALIOP near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals, assumptions on the mass extinction efficiency, and incorporating other parameters (an aerosol hygroscopic growth factor and PM2.5/PM10 ratio). Application of this algorithm over the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2006 to 2018 yielded larger PM2.5 values over the eastern and western CONUS (~10-15 μg/m³) and lower PM2.5 levels in the central CONUS (~5 μg/m³). These spatial patterns were similar to those from gridded PM2.5 concentrations obtained through in situ measurements at ground stations operated by the US Environmental Protection Agency. In another approach, the Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar was used with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model in a 1D ensemble-based variational technique to obtain PM2.5 over the US and Europe, and the spatial patterns of the CATS/GEOS based PM2.5 concentrations generally captured those from surface stations (with corresponding hourly EPA PM2.5 vs CATS PM2.5 statistics of R=0.4 and bias=1.5 μg/m³). In our recent work, as part of the Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) Working Group, we have applied both the CALIOP and CATS/GEOS based approaches over the highly polluted country of India during the post-monsoon season (September-October 2016). We derived elevated levels of two-month mean PM2.5 (~100 μg/m³) in northern India, especially near New Delhi. These high PM2.5 concentrations in the Indo-Gangetic plain are driven in large part from the seasonal burning of crop residue and meteorological conditions typical at this time of the year, such as low wind speeds and a shallow boundary layer. While the satellite-derived PM2.5 moderately replicates (R = ~0.7-0.9) the spatial variability in the two-month mean of surface in situ PM2.5 from monitoring sites operated by the Central and State Pollution Control Boards, we show results from specific scenes for which there are large deviations between the satellite-derived PM2.5 and in situ measurements. Other current work on this topic focuses on developing PM2.5 estimates using airborne high spectral resolution lidar measurements through machine learning regression algorithms and involves several parameters (e.g., aerosol extinction, color ratio, lidar ratio). Application of this method over major metropolitan areas in the US and Asia have resulted in high correlations (R = 0.93) with surface measurements. This airborne lidar approach can be adapted to spaceborne lidar measurements, and all three of these approaches can be applied to ESA’s EarthCARE Atmospheric Lidar instrument, setting the stage for the future Cloud Aerosol Lidar for Global Scale Observations of the Ocean-Land Atmosphere System (CALIGOLA) mission. Ultimately, beyond estimates of PM2.5, the aerosol vertical distribution from lidars can benefit studies involving passive sensor approaches for PM2.5 proxies (including from geostationary satellites), wildfire smoke plume injection heights, volcanic emissions (e.g., ash height retrievals), and aerosol/air quality model assimilation, evaluation, and forecasts.

Travis D Toth↗

Data from Bioenergy Sorghum Maintains Photosynthetic Capacity in Elevated Ozone Concentrations

Elevated tropospheric ozone concentration (O3) significantly reduces photosynthesis and productivity in several C4 crops including maize, switchgrass and sugarcane. However, it is unknown how O3 affects plant growth, development and productivity in sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L.), an emerging C4 bioenergy crop. Here, we investigated the effects of elevated O3 on photosynthesis, biomass and nutrient composition of a number of sorghum genotypes over two seasons in the field using free-air concentration enrichment (FACE), and in growth chambers. We also tested if elevated O3 altered the relationship between stomatal conductance and environmental conditions using two common stomatal conductance models. Sorghum genotypes showed significant variability in plant functional traits, including photosynthetic capacity, leaf N content and specific leaf area, but responded similarly to O3. At the FACE experiment, elevated O3 did not alter net CO2 assimilation (A), stomatal conductance (gs), stomatal sensitivity to the environment, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant biomass, but led to reductions in the maximum carboxylation capacity of phosphoenolpyruvate and increased stomatal limitation to A in both years. These findings suggest that bioenergy sorghum is tolerant to O3 and could be used to enhance biomass productivity in O3 polluted regions.

Feedstock Production↗

Use of Remote Sensing Products for the SERVIR Project

The United Nations University (UNU) estimates that floods presently impacts greater than 520 million people per year worldwide, resulting in up to 25,000 annual deaths, extensive homelessness, disaster-induced disease, crop and livestock damage, famine, and other serious harm. Meanwhile, aid agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) are increasingly seeking better information concerning flood hazards in order to plan for and help mitigate the effects of damaging floods. There is fertile ground to continue development of better remote sensing and modeling techniques to help manage flood related disasters. Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid flood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of flood forecasting and detection products.

Policelli, Frederick S.↗

Optimizing resource allocation in Miscanthus breeding via sparse testing designs for genomic prediction

Phenotyping high-biomass perennial crops is laborious and the rate of genetic gain in conventional perennial crop breeding programs is typically low. So, it is especially important to identify methods that produce efficiency gains in the breeding process. Miscanthus is a C4 perennial grass with favorable characteristics for producing biomass as a feedstock for biofuels and diverse bio-based products. Increasing biomass yield will increase profitability and environmental benefits, so it is a key target for Miscanthus breeding. In addition, the identification of well-adapted genotypes across a wide range of environmental conditions requires the establishment of multi-environment trials (METs). Sparse testing is a genomic prediction-based strategy that reduces the phenotyping costs in METs by selecting a subset of genotypes to evaluate in a subset of environments and then predicts the performance of the unobserved genotype-environment combinations. A Miscanthus sacchariflorus (MSA) population comprising 336 genotypes observed across three environments was analyzed implementing sparse testing designs. Three prediction models considering main effects (environments, genotypes, genomic) and interaction effects (genotype-by-environment; G×E interaction) were implemented for forecasting dry biomass yield (YDY), total culm (TCM), average internode length (AIL), and culm node number (CNN). Multiple calibration sets based on different compositions and sizes were considered to evaluate performance in terms of the predictive ability (PA) and the mean square error (MSE) for a fixed testing set size. The training set size ranged from 52 to 112 to predict a fixed set of 224 unobserved genotypes across all three environments. The results showed that the model accounting for G×E interaction consistently presented the highest PA and the lowest MSE: for CNN (PA: ~0.77, MSE: ~0.5) and YDY (PA: ~0.70, MSE: ~1.3) while for TCM and AIL these ranged from ~0.28 to 0.41 and ~1.3 to 4.3, respectively. Overall, varying training sets and allocation strategies did not affect PA and MSE, with 52 non-overlapping and 0 overlapping genotypes per environment as the optimal cost-effective allocation framework. This suggests that implementing sparse testing designs could significantly reduce phenotyping costs by fivefold, without compromising PA in breeding programs for perennial crops such as Miscanthus.

Miscanthus sacchariflorus (MSA)↗

Dissecting the contributions to non-photochemical quenching in a land plant under fluctuating light

Photosynthetic organisms have evolved multiple non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) processes, providing photoprotection by safely dissipating excess excitation energy. These processes involve various molecular players functioning on overlapping timescales from seconds to days, making it challenging to isolate and quantify their individual kinetics. In this study, we perform whole-leaf chlorophyll fluorescence lifetime and xanthophyll concentration measurements on wild-type and various newly characterized NPQ mutants of Nicotiana benthamiana, a vascular land plant. Based on these measurements, we construct a fluorescence lifetime-based quantitative kinetic model that disentangles individual photoprotection components and, when integrated additively, accurately predicts wild-type and mutant NPQ behaviors under various light-dark regimes. Additionally, the model quantifies the per-molecule quenching effectiveness of various xanthophylls and the contributions of six quenching components (qE V , qE A , qE Z , qE L , qZ, and qI) across different genotypes. It also suggests improved overall quenching efficiency at specific VDE:ZEP:PsbS overexpression stoichiometries, aligning with previous studies and supporting translational efforts to optimize photoprotection and enhance crop yields under dynamic light environments.

Lam, Lam [University of California, Berkeley, CA (↗

Bioenergy sorghum maintains photosynthetic capacity in elevated ozone concentrations

Abstract Elevated tropospheric ozone concentration (O 3 ) significantly reduces photosynthesis and productivity in several C 4 crops including maize, switchgrass and sugarcane. However, it is unknown how O 3 affects plant growth, development and productivity in sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L.), an emerging C 4 bioenergy crop. Here, we investigated the effects of elevated O 3 on photosynthesis, biomass and nutrient composition of a number of sorghum genotypes over two seasons in the field using free‐air concentration enrichment (FACE), and in growth chambers. We also tested if elevated O 3 altered the relationship between stomatal conductance and environmental conditions using two common stomatal conductance models. Sorghum genotypes showed significant variability in plant functional traits, including photosynthetic capacity, leaf N content and specific leaf area, but responded similarly to O 3 . At the FACE experiment, elevated O 3 did not alter net CO 2 assimilation ( A ), stomatal conductance ( g s ), stomatal sensitivity to the environment, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant biomass, but led to reductions in the maximum carboxylation capacity of phosphoenolpyruvate and increased stomatal limitation to A in both years. These findings suggest that bioenergy sorghum is tolerant to O 3 and could be used to enhance biomass productivity in O 3 polluted regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Global Corn Heat Stress: Mean and SD of Degree Days Above 29°C based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Projections

Description This global dataset provides the estimated mean and standard deviation (SD) of corn heat stress (degree days above 29°C) for a set of climate models in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 at 0.25-degree resolution. The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The current dataset includes: Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 The mean and SD are calculated over 1985-2014 for the historical period and over 2035-2064 for future projections. A full description of methods, including growing season, daily temperature distribution, and statistical coefficients, can be found in Haqiqi (2024). The source climate data are obtained from https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds2/catalog/catalog.html and are described in Thrasher et al (2022). The codes used to create this dataset are available at https://github.com/ihaqiqi/dd29c_nex_cmip6. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141. The data processing, computation, and storage were completed on Purdue Anvil supercomputer and cyberinfrastructure supported by the National Science Foundation HDR award # 2118329: "NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE)". References Haqiqi. I. (2024). Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply. Environmental Research: Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad7d12 Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A., Melton, F., Lee, T., & Nemani, R. (2022). NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Scientific Data, 9(1), 262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Climate Change↗

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multifunctional landscapes for dedicated bioenergy crops lead to low-carbon market-competitive biofuels

Switchgrass is a promising feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries, due to its ability to maintain comparatively high biomass yields across a wide range of soil and climatic conditions. However, there is an incomplete understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with cultivating switchgrass on low-productivity land for conversion to biofuels. This study surveys prior literature and demonstrates a new integrated assessment framework, including agroecosystem, ecosystem services valuation, technoeconomic, and life-cycle assessment models, to quantify and contextualize the economic and environmental impacts of switchgrass cultivation on marginal land with downstream conversion to biofuels. Monetizing and incorporating the value of ecosystem services, such as improved water quality benefits from nitrate and sediment reductions, climate change mitigation benefits from CO 2 emission reduction, and recreational and pollination benefits from increased biodiversity, the modeled multifunctional landscape reduces the ethanol production cost by 33.3–58.9 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent ($\$$1.3–2.2/gge). Planting switchgrass in low productivity land improves soil health, resulting in the carbon footprint reduction credit of 12.8–20.2 gCO 2e /MJ. For an improved switchgrass-to-ethanol conversion pathway with the maximum benefits from ecosystem services, the minimum ethanol selling price and carbon footprint of ethanol, respectively, could reach to 31 cents/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent (47% reduction relative to average gasoline price) and 3 gCO 2e /MJ (97% reduction relative to gasoline). In conclusion, this low carbon renewable ethanol leads to substantial State and/or Federal policy incentives (~$\$$1/$\scriptsize{L}$-gasoline-equivalent) providing a large benefit to biorefinery operators, farmers, and the public as a whole.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗

Validation of a metabolite–GWAS network for Populus trichocarpa family 1 UDP-glycosyltransferases

Metabolite genome-wide association studies (mGWASs) are increasingly used to discover the genetic basis of target phenotypes in plants such as Populus trichocarpa , a biofuel feedstock and model woody plant species. Despite their growing importance in plant genetics and metabolomics, few mGWASs are experimentally validated. Here, we present a functional genomics workflow for validating mGWAS-predicted enzyme–substrate relationships. We focus on uridine diphosphate–glycosyltransferases (UGTs), a large family of enzymes that catalyze sugar transfer to a variety of plant secondary metabolites involved in defense, signaling, and lignification. Glycosylation influences physiological roles, localization within cells and tissues, and metabolic fates of these metabolites. UGTs have substantially expanded in P. trichocarpa , presenting a challenge for large-scale characterization. Using a high-throughput assay, we produced substrate acceptance profiles for 40 previously uncharacterized candidate enzymes. Assays confirmed 10 of 13 leaf mGWAS associations, and a focused metabolite screen demonstrated varying levels of substrate specificity among UGTs. A substrate binding model case study of UGT-23 rationalized observed enzyme activities and mGWAS associations, including glycosylation of trichocarpinene to produce trichocarpin, a major higher-order salicylate in P. trichocarpa. We identified UGTs putatively involved in lignan, flavonoid, salicylate, and phytohormone metabolism, with potential implications for cell wall biosynthesis, nitrogen uptake, and biotic and abiotic stress response that determine sustainable biomass crop production. Our results provide new support for in silico analyses and evidence-based guidance for in vivo functional characterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗