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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Wettability variation and its impact on CO 2 storage capacity at the Wyoming CarbonSAFE storage hub: An experimental approach

Meeting global and national net zero carbon emission targets will require geologic carbon disposal. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has accordingly funded significant research in this area, including the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project at Dry Fork Station (DFS) in Campbell County, Wyoming. This work studied wettability on micro- and macro-scales, CO 2 storage potential, and the correlation between the two to support the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project’s subsurface assessment. During the study, a target formation’s wettability was found to affect how much CO 2 can be stored in a given formation. Here, in this study, representative rock samples were selected from the target storage formations— Lakota, Hulett, and Minnelusa—based on the heterogeneity of the lithology, permeability, and porosity of the respective formations. The rock samples are all fine-grained sandstone with variable cementation and bedding structure, including different scales of laminated bedding. The porosity and permeability vary within the range of 9.0–14.3% and 0.1–28.9 mD, respectively. These rock samples were prepared for the micro-scale wettability (contact angle measurement), macro-scale wettability (wettability index derived from unsteady-state flow characterization for the core plugs), and CO 2 storage evaluation. The macro-scale experiments suggested that wettability appeared to dominate the CO 2 storage potential performance during the drainage process, where less water-wet behavior promoted higher CO 2 storage potential. The micro-scale wettability tests showed that the rock samples at the studied reservoir conditions behaved water-wet and became more water-wet as pressure increased. This kind of wettability change discourages further CO 2 storage potential yet benefits the CO 2 residual trapping as the CO 2 injection proceeds for the studied area. The results allow the recommendation of the best reservoir candidate for storage based on wettability that affects CO 2 storage. The work presented in this study provides valuable insights into wettability’s effect on the CO 2 storage capacity and wettability’s importance when identifying the optimal CO 2 storage formation to meet the project’s goals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?

Cropland carbon budget depicts the amount of carbon flowing in and out of agroecosystems and the changes in carbon stocks of soil and living biomass during the same period. Soil carbon credit is the additional change in soil carbon stock under certain farming practices compared with the business-as-usual practices. Accurately calculating cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is critical to assessing climate change mitigation potential in agroecosystems. The calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit is sensitive to local soil and climatic conditions, especially initial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, which is determined by both SOC concentration (SOC%) and bulk density (Bulk_Density). SOC stock data are either from soil sampling or gridded public survey data. In agroecosystem models, SOC stock data are a key model input for quantifying cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. However, various types and degrees of uncertainties exist in SOC stock datasets, which propagate to the quantification of SOC stock change. In particular, a large discrepancy is found in two widely used SOC stock datasets — Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset (RaCA) and Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO) — in the U.S. Midwest, with a relative difference (quantified using Normalized Root Mean Square Error, NRMSE) of 48.0% for 0–30 cm SOC stock between the two datasets. It remains largely unclear how uncertainty in SOC stocks affects the calculation of cropland carbon budget and soil carbon credit. To address this question, we used a well-validated process-based agroecosystem model, ecosys, to assess the impacts of SOC stock uncertainty on carbon budget and soil carbon credit calculation in the U.S. Midwestern corn-soybean rotation systems. Our results reveal the following findings: (1) A sizable discrepancy exists in simulated cropland carbon budget between using gSSURGO and using RaCA for their SOC% and Bulk_Density as model inputs, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of only 0.4 for simulated change of SOC stock (ΔSOC) using these two different soil datasets. (2) Simulated cropland carbon budget components were more sensitive to initial SOC% than to Bulk_Density. For example, the upper and lower quartiles of multi-year averaged ΔSOC were –29.8 and 4.8 gC/m 2 /year for the selected counties respectively, with an uncertainty of 13.7 and 0.7 gC/m 2 /year induced by uncertainties in initial SOC% and Bulk_Density, respectively. (3) Both simulated ΔSOC and its uncertainty were negatively correlated with initial SOC%, whereas ΔSOC was negatively correlated with air temperature, and ΔSOC uncertainty was positively correlated with air temperature. (4) The uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits was much smaller compared with the uncertainty of calculated absolute carbon budgets assuming the same SOC stock uncertainty level in the inputs. Specifically, in our assessment comparing planting cover crops vs no cover crop, the uncertainty of calculated soil carbon credits induced by initial SOC% uncertainty was less than 4% (relative to the quantified value of the soil carbon credits) for 90% of the cases. Our analysis highlights that high accuracy measurement of SOC% as inputs is needed for the calculation of cropland carbon budgets; however, soil carbon credit quantification is much less sensitive to the initial SOC% inputs, and the current publicly available soil datasets (e.g., gSSURGO) are largely suitable for the calculation of soil

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Geochemically Informed Leak Detection (GILD) Model to CO 2 Injection Sites on the United States Gulf Coast

The Gulf Coast region possesses great potential for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO 2 storage. A geochemically informed leak detection (GILD) model has been applied to CO 2 injection sites on the Gulf Coast with considerations of measurement variability. The Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County, Texas, was chosen to demonstrate the method. Based on background data from wells in the area, combinations of mineral and fluid compositions were used to create 23 scenarios for the geochemical model. The output from the geochemical model was used to identify sensitive monitoring species, and response functions were generated for these as a function of the CO 2 leakage concentration. The sources of measurement variability for background conditions were characterized from the Jasper aquifer background data, and then normalized using the coefficient of variation of each species across the monitoring wells. Bayesian belief network (BBN) models were constructed, and measurement variability of different levels were added to compare leak detection probabilities. Increasing measurement variability decreased the power to detect a leak of a given size. For a moderately high CO 2 concentration of 0.2 mol/kg, the probability of detecting this leakage effect using pH as the monitoring variable in an aquifer with calcite decreases from 98% (no measurement variability) to 61% (medium variability) to 33% (high variability). The loss in power of the sampling protocol with increasing measurement variability is similar in magnitude when Ca 2+ or HCO 3 - is used as the monitoring parameter, but only for aquifers with calcite.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Localized energy burden, concentrated disadvantage, and the feminization of energy poverty

Energy burden directly influences households' health and safety. Amid a growing literature on energy, poverty and gender remains relatively understudied. We evaluate socioeconomic, geographic, and health factors as multidimensions of concentrated disadvantage that magnify energy burden in the United States over time. We show that the energy burden is more pronounced in disadvantaged counties with larger elderly, impoverished, disabled people, and racialized populations where people do not have health insurance. Neighborhoods with households headed by women of color (especially Black women) are more likely to face a high energy burden, which worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although energy costs are often regarded as an individual responsibility, these findings illustrate the feminization of energy poverty and indicate the need for an intersectional and interdisciplinary framework in devising energy policy directed to households with the most severe energy burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-product landscape life-cycle assessment approach for evaluating local climate mitigation potential

Increasing demand for land-based climate mitigation requires more efficient management of agricultural landscapes for competing objectives. Here we develop methods for assessing trade-offs and synergies between intensification and carbon-sequestering conservation measures in annual crop production landscapes using the DayCent ecosystem model and the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle assessment (LCA) model. We compiled county-scaled crop yields, fertilizer application rates, and tillage intensity for a corn–soybean farming case study landscape in the US state of Iowa. Using DayCent, we estimated a baseline soil organic carbon (SOC) accrual rate of 0.29 Mg C ha -1 y -1 driven by historical increases in crop productivity and reductions in tillage intensity. We then simulated the effects of management interventions targeted toward intensification (stover removal) and SOC sequestration (tillage intensity reduction and winter cover crop addition) individually and in combination. We propose a new multi-product landscape–LCA approach that analyzes marginal changes in corn grain, corn stover, and soybean production from the landscape in terms of their value for biofuel production (corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and cellulosic ethanol from stover) and associated net displacement of conventional fossil-derived fuel use. This enables us to evaluate both intensification and sequestration effects in common CO 2 -equivalent mitigation units. We also used DayCent-simulated yields under the different land management scenarios to estimate farm-level costs and revenues. Our results show that intensification via collecting 30% of corn stover for biofuel production would increase the total greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of this landscape by 0.93 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 and provide $49 ha -1 y -1 of additional net revenue from biomass sales, but would reduce the baseline SOC accumulation rate by approximately 40%. In contrast, integrated approaches that include co-adoption of winter cover cropping and/or tillage intensity reduction would result in increased rates of SOC accumulation above the baseline, achieving simultaneous improvements in both farm profits and the overall GHG mitigation potential of the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the sustainability of the 2017 US biofuel industry with an integrated techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment

The United States produced more than 66.2 billion Liters of biofuel, primarily in the form of corn ethanol (61 billion Liters) and soybean biodiesel (6 billion Liters), for the transportation industry in 2017. No work currently exists that evaluates both the economic and environmental outcomes of this industry with adequate geospatial resolution and national scope. In this study, a model framework is constructed to perform Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment using high-resolution input datasets to provide a granular estimation of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel sustainability performance in most counties in the United States in 2017 (the most recent year for which data is available). Results show a total life cycle, greenhouse gas emission volume of 99.5 million Mg CO 2-eq produced in 2017 by these two biofuels (94.8 million Mg from corn ethanol, and 4.7 million Mg from soybean biodiesel), excluding indirect land use change emissions. Further, this volume corresponds to a combined carbon intensity of 65.3 gCO 2-eq /MJ, which is a greenhouse gas improvement compared to petroleum-based gasoline (the carbon intensity of conventional gasoline is 93.0 gCO 2-eq /MJ). However, these biofuels are produced at an additional economic cost ($1.8 billion over the displaced gas/diesel). Additionally, these biofuels generate unfavorable impacts in other environmental categories when compared to petroleum-based fuels, particularly in areas of water, land, and nitrogen intensity. This work enables stakeholders to assess the specific value of biofuels as a means of emission reduction and determine if the attained improvements are worth the associated opportunity costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models for estimating contamination across different curbside collection strategies

Contaminated recyclables, which are frequently discarded as waste, pose a significant challenge to the implementation of a circular economy. These contaminated recyclables impede the circulation of resources, resulting in higher processing costs at material recovery facilities (MRFs). Over the past few decades, machine learning (ML) models such as linear regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) have evolved to provide new methods for predicting inbound contamination rates in addition to traditional statistical models. In this study, we applied ML models to predict inbound contamination rates using demographic features from 15 counties in the U.S. with different curbside collection strategies. In general, we found that ML models outperformed linear mixed models. Specifically, SVM models had the highest performance (R 2 = 0.75; mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.06), which may be due to their ability to model nonlinear relationships between features and inbound contamination rates. Further, the key predictor was population, with poverty rate being positively correlated and median age negatively correlated with inbound contamination rates. To improve the management of contamination and enhance the implementation of a circular economy, better models are needed to understand and estimate inbound contamination rates as well as identify critical factors in the present and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Patterns of indoor radon concentrations, radon-hazard potential, and radon testing on a small geographic scale in Utah

Currently, there are no publicly-available estimates of indoor radon concentration at scales smaller than the county. Radon-hazard potential soil maps that reflect underlying geologic factors can be created at small geographic scale and linked to residential and census data. We determined the association between residential radon tests and high radon-hazard potential soil at the residential and block group levels using a large Utah-based dataset. We also identified characteristics of block groups with limited tests in the dataset.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and history match analysis of a carbon dioxide “huff-and-puff” injection test in a horizontal shale gas well in Tennessee

Due to improvements in well development, shale gas production has gained importance recently, especially in the United States. To improve gas production and develop a better understanding of shale reservoirs, researchers are conducting field tests to monitor CO 2 storage and enhanced gas recovery. Reservoir simulations can then utilize these field results for sensitivity studies, uncertainty analysis, history matching, gas production forecasts, and CO 2 storage capacity estimations. One such field test was performed for the Chattanooga Shale formation in Morgan County, Tennessee. Approximately 463 tonnes (510 tons) of CO 2 was successfully injected into a hydraulically fractured horizontal well over a thirteen-day period in March 2014. The injection test was achieved in four steps: pre-injection, injection, soaking, and flowback. In this paper, those steps were modeled with a reservoir simulator to match the historic production and injection rates with gas component compositions and forecast the production for five years. The reservoir fluid was modeled as a multi-component gas, including CH 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , N 2 , and CO 2 . Langmuir constants, reservoir pressure, and fracture network volume were adjusted to match simulation results with observed production rates and gas composition. Results showed that, under the same reservoir conditions, each gas component behaves differently by way of compositional changes in production. CH4 behaves like N2, while CO 2 behaves like heavier hydrocarbons such as C 2 H 6 and C 3 H 8 . CO 2 plume results showed that, after injection, the produced CO 2 is mostly derived from fractured limestone (i.e., Fort Payne Formation) because the injected CO 2 is not adsorbed in limestone but rather by shale formations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifting temporal dynamics of human mobility in the United States

In this paper we analyze the average hourly temporal dynamics of human mobility in the United States from 2019 to 2020. We discuss how large decreases in human mobility nonuniformly effect the daily temporal dynamics of aggregate human behavior. The data used are weekly activity patterns for POIs from 2019 to 2020 in the United States, provided by SafeGraph and made openly available to academic and research institutions. We use clustering methods to create metrics describing how human activity changes throughout the day/week at the county and national levels. In response to significant mobility reductions starting March 2020, daily temporal patterns of human activity changed nonuniformly. Morning activity started later, and evening activity started earlier in 2020 compared to 2019, and temporal behavioral patterns on weekdays began to look more similar to weekends. The changes in daily temporal behavior persisted throughout the year even as total mobility levels recovered. The results provide insights on the changes in human behavior in response covid-19 policies and illustrate influences on social systems, health, and transportation networks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy-water interdependencies across the three major United States electric grids: A multi-sectoral analysis

As water availability and timing of delivery fluctuates and the US electric grid sees rapid transformation and reconfiguration under decarbonization and resource adequacy strategies, there is a critical need for information and data that supports understanding the water-energy interdependency landscape. The United States currently lacks comprehensive data, informative visualizations, and analysis of energy-water interdependencies at scales necessary to support resource and operational decision-making. This article provides US electricity interconnection-level Sankey diagrams that show the relative reliance of water and energy across various economic sectors. A deeper analysis is additionally provided at the county level to illustrate trends and potential opportunities related to resiliency and efficiency in multi-sectoral water and energy flow distributions and intensities. We find that the electricity interconnections in the US vary dramatically in their water and energy interdependencies across applications and economic sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing and Exploring Untapped Micro-Hydro Hybrid Systems: a Multi-Objective Approach for Crystal Lake as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution

Increasing electricity demand and concerns about climate change and fossil fuel consumption have highlighted the importance of renewable energy resources and storage systems. This paper proposes a method for exploring untapped pumped hydro storage potentials to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation profiles. Hourly measured data from 2022 in Benzie County, Michigan, United States, were gathered for system sizing and a thorough, realistic analysis. By employing the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm, we formulated optimal sizing and energy-management strategies for three different scenarios. Unlike similar studies, the 3rd with triple objective functions (OFs) scenario aims to maximize both reliability and ecological OFs while minimizing the cost OF. It has shown promising results with multiple solutions, considering economic, environmental, and reliability factors. A case study conducted in Crystal Lake, Michigan, revealed that although Crystal Lake would function only as a micro-hydro power facility, it is a promising and huge storage unit with a substantial storage capacity of around 14.9734GWh. The system investigated is significant in the USA due to its rapid deployment capabilities, minimal construction requirements, and ease of integration with the distribution grid. The fuzzy logic method was employed to identify the best non-dominant solution among the other solutions. Furthermore, these outcomes include a notably low levelized cost of energy at 0.046147$/kWh, a robust index of reliability of 99.705%, and a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions amounting to 7.9142×10 3 tons/year, when considering the triple OFs. The paper’s methodology provides valuable insights for regions aiming to utilize renewable energy from untapped storage sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification and evaluation of plastic waste in the United States

To develop viable solutions for reducing plastic waste, spatially explicit data on the management of these materials are critical. Here we employ statistical and geospatial methods to present a comprehensive assessment of plastic waste in the United States by resin type at the state, county, and local levels. Of the estimated 44 Mt of plastic waste managed in 2019 domestically, approximately 86% was landfilled, 9% was combusted, and 5% was recycled. Landfilled plastics represented significant losses to the country's economy in 2019: an average of US$7.2 billion in market value, about 3.4 EJ as embodied energy (equivalent to 12% of energy consumption by the industrial sector), and 1.5 EJ as an energy source (equivalent to 5.5% and 5% of energy consumption by the industrial and transportation sectors, respectively). Lastly, we posit that substantial amount of landfilled plastic waste could be recovered through advanced sorting, existing, and emerging recycling processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-scale sensing of field-level crop residue cover: Integrating field photos, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite data

Conservation tillage practices can bring benefits to agricultural sustainability. Accurate spatial and temporal resolved information of field-scale crop residue cover, which reflects tillage intensity, is highly valuable for evaluating the outcomes of government conservation programs and voluntary ecosystem service markets, as well as facilitating agroecosystem modeling to quantify cropland biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing has the potential to cost-effectively detect crop residue cover, however, existing regional-scale studies were limited by insufficient ground truth data, scale mismatch between coarse satellite pixels and ground data, and the lack of key spectral data for detecting crop residues. Therefore, this study developed an innovative cross-sensing framework to integrate proximal sensing, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite Earth Observation through deep learning to quantify field-level crop residue cover fractions at the regional scale. Specifically, we have collected intensive ground orthographic photos and conducted airborne hyperspectral surveys at corn and soybean fields of Champaign and nearby counties in Illinois, the heartland of the U.S. Corn Belt. Through semi-automatic labeling aided by ResNet-50 and superpixel image segmentation, we obtained 6719 records of ground residue fractions. With these ground data, we developed the 1-dimensional convolution neural network (CNN) model using airborne hyperspectral reflectance, which has 0.5m spatial resolution and 3–5 nm spectral resolution from 400 to 2400 nm, to predict residue fractions. By applying the CNN model to airborne pixels, we augmented “ground truth” data of crop residues and further combined them with Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) satellite data to quantify regional residue fractions at 30 m resolution. Results show that airborne hyperspectral imagery with CNN can accurately detect residue fractions (R 2 = 0.82, relative RMSE = 11.73%) to effectively generate quasi “ground truth” data to support satellite upscaling to all fields. With independent ground data for testing, we found that the ground-airborne-satellite integrative framework achieved better predictions in estimating crop residue cover (R 2 = 0.67, relative RMSE = 17.53%) than the conventional ground-satellite upscaling (R 2 = 0.22, relative RMSE = 32.09%). Here we also found that the shortwave infrared wavelengths, particularly 2100–2300 nm, are vital for predicting crop residue cover. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data have a comparable capability to track residue fractions due to similar shortwave infrared wavelengths. This study highlights the high accuracy of hyperspectral imaging to detect agroecosystem tillage management practices and the advantages of cross-scale sensing to cost-effectively integrate multi-source data to quantify field-level agroecosystem variables across scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supply chain optimization of sustainable aviation fuel from carinata in the Southeastern United States

We report carinata is a purpose-grown oilseed feedstock for renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that can replace conventional aviation fuel (CAF). Given carinata is a new crop in the Southeastern United States, it is crucial to analyze its sustainability from a supply chain perspective. This study developed a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model and simulated it for 20 years, starting from a farm (county-level data) and ending at the airport. About 2.06 million ha in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia combined were found suitable for carinata production. Given the three-year rotation period, about 0.69 million hectares can be cultivated annually, approximately 65% of which was in Georgia. About 2.4% of the combined SAF annual demand of four major airports (about 210 thousand t) in the study area is satisfied at that level of carinata cultivation. However, all available SAF was supplied to the Atlanta airport as this decision minimizes the supply chain cost. A total of 1343 storage units, one oil extraction mill, and one biorefinery were needed to meet the overall demand. We found that SW Georgia is the top supplier of carinata seeds. The unit cost of production and carbon intensity were estimated to be $\$$0.89 L -1 (or $\$$26.79 GJ -1 ) and 0.91 kg CO 2 e L -1 (or 27.28 kg CO 2 e GJ -1 ), respectively. This carbon intensity of carinata-based SAF was 67.8% lower than that of CAF. With variations included in SAF demand, yield, and soil carbon sequestration, carbon savings remained between 66.5% and 67.8%. Given the GHG advantage of SAF over CAF, there is justification for subsidies required to make SAF competitive.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Siting and sizing of public–private charging stations impacts on household and electric vehicle fleets

To facilitate the provision of electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) in urban areas, this study investigates the benefits of co-locating fleet-owned chargers with public charging stations to enable construction incentives and cord-sharing cost savings. Shared EVCS can serve charging demand from both user types: private (household) EV owners and those managing fleet vehicles – like shared and fully automated EV (SAEV) fleets. Using POLARIS to simulate all person-travel across the 6-county Austin, Texas region, new EVCS were sited and sized with DC fast-charging (DCFC) plugs to lower operating and construction costs while providing public + private (PP) service across an 81-square-mile core geofence (where 200 SAEVs were active) over 24-hour days. When co-location is permitted, 115 DCFC cords were added to the 23 existing (publicly available) stations to enable SAEVs and household EVs (HHEVs) charging access, within the geofence. Each 250-mile-range SAEV was simulated to travel an average of 330 miles per day, serve over 92 person-trips, and recharge 2.7 times a day (for 2.4 h per session). The new DCFC plugs were primarily added to public EVCS at shopping centers and schools, and in residential settings along freeways. The average plug served 4.8 EVs per day. Most co-located PP EVCS permitted immediate (no-wait) charging, except for 2 stations along freeways that averaged 8 min of wait time to begin charging. In conclusion, the co-location strategy lowered fleet owners’ initial EVCS construction costs by 12 % (thanks to cord-sharing to avoid cord duplication), while reducing SAEV wait times to just 3.1 min (versus 10.7 min if SAEV managers had to build and operate their own EVCS).

EV charging modeling↗