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NASA NTRS2016

The Relationships Between Insoluble Precipitation Residues, Clouds, and Precipitation Over California's Southern Sierra Nevada During Winter Storms

Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.

Creamean, Jessie M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impacts of Solar-Absorbing Aerosol Layers on the Transition of Stratocumulus to Trade Cumulus Clouds

The effects of an initially overlying layer of solar-absorbing aerosol on the transition of stratocumulus to trade cumulus clouds are examined using large-eddy simulations. For lightly drizzling cloud the transition is generally hastened, resulting mainly from increased cloud droplet number concentration (Nc) induced by entrained aerosol. The increased Nc slows sedimentation of cloud droplets and shortens their relaxation time for diffusional growth, both of which accelerate entrainment of overlying air and thereby stratocumulus breakup. However, the decrease in albedo from cloud breakup is more than offset by redistributing cloud water over a greater number of droplets, such that the diurnal-average shortwave forcing at the top of the atmosphere is negative. The negative radiative forcing is enhanced by sizable longwave contributions, which result from the greater cloud breakup and a reduced boundary layer height associated with aerosol heating. A perturbation of moisture instead of aerosol aloft leads to a greater liquid water path and a more gradual transition. Adding absorbing aerosol to that atmosphere results in substantial reductions in liquid water path (LWP) and cloud cover that lead to positive short-wave and negative longwave forcings on average canceling each other. Only for heavily drizzling clouds is the breakup delayed, as inhibition of precipitation overcomes cloud water loss from enhanced entrainment. Considering these simulations as an imperfect proxy for biomass burning plumes influencing Namibian stratocumulus, we expect regional indirect plus semi-direct forcings to be substantially negative to negligible at the top of the atmosphere, with its magnitude sensitive to background and perturbation properties.

Zhou, Xiaoli↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Results from the ORACLES-2016 Deployment and a First Look at ORACLES-2017 and Beyond

Seasonal biomass burning (BB) in Southern Africa during the Southern hemisphere spring produces almost a third of the Earth's BB aerosol particles. These particles are lofted into the mid-troposphere and transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, where they interact with one of the three semi-permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain, because of the scarcity of observational constraints on both, the aerosol and cloud properties, and the governing physical processes. The first deployment of the NASA P-3 and ER-2 aircraft in the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols Above Clouds and Their IntEractionS) project in August/September of 2016 has started to fill this observational gap by providing an unprecedented look at the SE Atlantic cloud-aerosol system. We provide an overview of the first deployment, highlighting aerosol absorptive and cloud-nucleating properties, their vertical distribution relative to clouds, the locations and degree of aerosol mixing into clouds, cloud changes in response to such mixing, and cloud top stability relationships to the aerosol. We also expect to describe preliminary results of the second ORACLES deployment from Sao Tome and Pri­ncipe in August 2017. We will make an initial assessment of the differences and similarities of the BB plume and cloud properties as observed from a deployment site near the plume's northern edge. We will conclude with an outlook for the third ORACLES deployment in October 2018.

Redemann, Jens↗
NASA NTRS2017

Radiation, Smoke and Clouds Observed in the Southeastern Atlantic With the Research Scanning Polarimeter During ORACLES

The ObseRvations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions (ORACLES) project is making a series of field deployments to the southeastern Atlantic with NASA ER-2 and P3 aircraft to acquire both detailed remote sensing observations and in situ measurements of the aerosols and clouds in that region. This area is home to one of the largest low-level cloud decks on Earth that is seasonally affected by vast plumes of smoke from biomass burning, which in effect provides a natural experiment testing the radiative and microphysical interactions between the smoke and the clouds. The downward solar radiation at the surface, or cloud top, is always reduced by the presence of smoke. However, whether the amount of sunlight reflected back out to space is increased, or decreased by the presence of smoke is sensitively dependent on the brightness of the clouds and the fraction of light that the smoke absorbs each time light hits a smoke particle. In this study we use data from the Research Scanning Polarimeter, an along track scanning instrument, that provides measurements of the Stokes parameters I, Q and U at 410, 470, 555, 670, 865, 960, 1590, 1880 and 2260 nm at 150 viewing angles over a range of +/- 60° from nadir for each contiguous sub-aircraft pixel (~ 300 m in size). A retrieval algorithm is applied to the data acquired with a table look up technique, similar to that of the operational POLDER algorithm, to provide a first guess of the complex refractive index, optical depth and size distribution of the smoke particles together with cloud droplet size and optical depth. A subsequent iterative fitting procedure, where the fact that the doubling/adding method allows the construction of the Green's function for the radiative transfer equation, is used to obtain an efficient and statistically optimal estimate of the aerosol and cloud retrieval parameters. These retrieval parameters are evaluated against in situ observations, when available, and the optical depth and intensive lidar variables that are measured by the High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2. Finally, the aerosol and cloud retrievals are used to evaluate the variations in top of the atmosphere, surface/cloud top shortwave radiative forcing and atmospheric absorption that are caused by variations in the smoke and clouds.

Cairns, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Method for Obtaining High Time and Spatial Resolution Convective Cloud Top Data for the TTL

A method for obtaining high time and spatial resolution convective cloud top data for the TTL Leonhard Pfister, Eric Jensen, Rei Ueyama, Eliot Atlas, and Maria Navarro Convective systems in the tropics have a maximum in the cloud top altitude distribution of about 13.5 km. However, there is a significant tail to this distribution -- a few percent reach the cold point tropopause (CPT) at 16.5 km, and there has been clear evidence of convective mass deposited as high as 19 km in the tropics. The region between 13.5 km and the cold point tropopause is transitional, between the free tropical troposphere where convective mixing dominates, and the stratosphere where slow upward ascent dominates. In this region (the Tropical Tropopause Layer), convective injection, slow ascent, and mixing from midlatitudes all have similar time scales. So, even though only a few percent of convective systems reach the CPT, convection is important. Space Based Lidar and cloud radar measurements have yielded information about long term average statistical distributions of cloud altitude as a function of location. However, we also need time-dependent cloud top altitude and cloud top potential temperature information, primarily to understand the water vapor and TTL cloud distributions. This is because the effect of convection depends on the local temperature, and on the subsequent temperature history. Time dependent cloud top information is also needed to understand short-lived tracers because cross-isentropic flow is time and space dependent. This paper presents a method of obtaining time and space dependent convective cloud top theta (and altitude) information using 3-hourly geostationary brightness temperature data, coupled with global 3 -hourly rainfall estimates and temperature analyses. We explore different mixing algorithms to obtain the most reasonable agreement with near-simultaneous observations by cloudsat and calipso. Observations of short-lived tracers from ATTREX, coupled with short-term trajectories are used to test the method's accuracy. An important caveat is the ambiguity of evaluating convective cloud top altitudes under from combined cloudsat and calipso measurements.

cold point tropopause (CPT)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Calipso Observations of the Dependence of Homo- and Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation in Cirrus Clouds on Latitude, Season and Surface Condition

There are two fundamental mechanisms through which cirrus clouds form; homo- and heterogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth hom and het). The relative contribution of each mechanism to ice crystal production often determines the microphysical and radiative properties of a cirrus cloud. A new satellite remote sensing method is described in this study to estimate cirrus cloud ice particle number concentration and the relative contribution of hom and het to cirrus cloud formation as a function of altitude, latitude, season and surface type (e.g. land vs. ocean). This method uses co-located observations from the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) and from the CALIOP (Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) polar orbiting satellite, employing IIR channels at 10.6 μm and 12.05 μm. The method is applied here to single-layered clouds of visible optical depth between about 0.3 and 3. Two years of Version 3 data have been analyzed for the years 2008 and 2013, with each season characterized in terms of 532 nm cirrus cloud centroid altitude and temperature, the cirrus cloud ice particle number concentration, effective diameter, layer-average ice water content and visible optical depth. Using a conservative criterion for hom cirrus, on average, the sampled cirrus clouds formed through hom occur about 43% of the time in the Arctic and 50% of the time in the Antarctic, and during winter at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, hom cirrus occur 37% of the time. Elsewhere (and during other seasons in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes), this hom cirrus fraction is lower. Processes that could potentially explain these observations are discussed, as well as the potential relevancy of these results to ice nucleation studies, climate modeling and jet-stream dynamics.

Mitchell, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating from Biomass Burning Aerosol and its Impact on Cloud Structure in the Southeast Atlantic

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. In many cases, the complex physical relationships between marine boundary cloud morphology and the environmental conditions in which the clouds exist are not well understood. Such uncertainties arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that the absorbing and heating properties of these aerosols influence the microphysical composition and macrophysical arrangement of marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus in this region; however, this has yet to be quantified. The deployment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility #1 (AMF1) in support of LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 S, 14.35 W). Thermodynamic profiles will be analyzed through the unique combination of sounding data from radiosonde launches and microwave profiling radiometers, giving observations of additional quantities important for cloud development such as CAPE and CIN at a fine temporal resolution. The thermodynamic profiles will be presented in conjunction with detailed observations of the cloud structure over the site from a K-band cloud radar, micropulse lidar, and laser ceilometer. The observed thermodynamic and cloud profiles will be used as input forcing, alongside aerosols from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), for the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) to gain information regarding the radiative heating profiles. Idealized experiments using RRTM with and without aerosols will be used to quantify the impact of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol plumes as they pass over the site. Due to documented discrepancies in the single scatter albedo (SSA) between models and observations, further sensitivity experiments will demonstrate the importance of the optical properties of biomass burning aerosol in accurately representing heating within the column. Finally, the heating rates will be put into context of the cloud structure over the site from the perspective of the mass flux closure from the University of Washington shallow convective scheme.

Collow, Allison↗
NASA NTRS2021

Observation of absorbing aerosols above clouds over the South-East Atlantic Ocean from the geostationary satellite SEVIRI - Part 2: Comparison with MODIS and aircraft measurements from the CLARIFY-2017 field campaign

To evaluate the SEVIRI retrieval for aerosols above clouds presented in Part 1 of the companion paper, the algorithm is applied over the south-east Atlantic Ocean during the CLARIFY-2017 field campaign period. The first step of our analysis compares the retrieved aerosol and cloud properties against equivalent products from the MODIS MOD06ACAERO retrieval (Meyer et al., 2015). While the correlation between the two satellite retrievals of the above-cloud aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is good (R = 0.78), the AOT retrieved by SEVIRI is 20.3 % smaller than that obtained from the MODIS retrieval. This difference in AOT is attributed mainly to the more absorbing aerosol model assumed for the SEVIRI retrieval compared to MODIS. The underlying cloud optical thickness (COT) derived from the two satellites is in good agreement (R = 0.90). The cloud droplet effective radius (CER) retrieved by SEVIRI is consistently smaller than MODIS by 2.2 µm, which is mainly caused by the use of different spectral bands of the satellite instruments. In the second part of our analysis, we compare the forecast water vapour profiles used for the SEVIRI atmospheric correction as well as the aforementioned aerosol and cloud products with in situ measurements made from the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) aircraft platform during the CLARIFY-2017 campaign. Around Ascension Island, the column water vapour used to correct the SEVIRI signal is overestimated by 3.1 mm in the forecast compared to that measured by dropsondes. However, the evidence suggests that the accuracy of the atmospheric correction improves closer to the African coast. Consistency is observed between the SEVIRI above-cloud AOT and in situ measurements (from cavity ring-down spectroscopy instruments) when the measured single-scattering albedo is close to that assumed in the retrieval algorithm. On the other hand, the satellite retrieval overestimates the AOT when the assumed aerosol model is not absorbing enough. Consistency is also found between the cloud properties retrieved by SEVIRI and the CER measured by a cloud droplet probe and the liquid water path derived from a microwave radiometer. Despite the instrumental limitations of the geostationary satellite, the consistency obtained between SEVIRI, MODIS and the aircraft measurements demonstrates the ability of the retrieval in providing additional information on the temporal evolution of the aerosol properties above clouds.

absorbing aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2021

Potential impact of aerosols on convective clouds revealed by Himawari-8 observations over different terrain types in Eastern China

Convective clouds are common and play a major role in Earth’s water cycle and energy balance; they may even develop into storms and cause severe rainfall events. To understand the convective cloud development process, this study investigates the impact of aerosols on convective clouds by considering the influence of both topography and diurnal variation of radiation. By combining texture analysis, clustering and thresholding methods, we identify all convective clouds in two warm seasons (May-September, 2016-2017) in eastern China based on Himawari-8 Level 1 data. Having a large diurnally resolved cloud data together with surface meteorological and environmental measurements, we investigate convective cloud properties and their variation, stratified by elevation and diurnal change. We then analyze the potential impact of aerosol on convective clouds under different meteorological conditions and topographies. In general, convective clouds tend to occur preferentially under polluted conditions in the morning, which reverses in the afternoon. Convective cloud fraction first increases then decreases with aerosol loading, which may contribute to this phenomenon. Topography and diurnal meteorological variations may affect the strength of aerosol microphysical and radiative effects. Updraft is always stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and plateaus, especially in northern China. The prevailing southerly wind near the foothills of mountains and plateaus is likely to contribute to this windward strengthening of updraft and to bring more pollutant into the mountains, thereby strengthening the microphysical effect, invigorating convective clouds. By comparison, over plain, aerosols decrease surface heating and suppresses convection by blocking solar radiation reaching the surface.

Tianmeng Chen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of the CALIPSO Level 3 Ice Cloud Product with the DARDAR and 2C-ICE products

Understanding the vertical distribution of ice clouds is crucial for climate modeling and weather forecasting. Since its launch to space in 2006, the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization instrument (CALIOP) onboard the CALIPSO spacecraft has been providing unprecedented high-quality profiles of ice clouds, especially optically thin cirrus clouds, during both day and night, on a global scale. Recently the lidar science working group at the NASA Langley Research Center delivered a level 3 (L3) ice cloud product which reports monthly statistics of ice cloud extinction coefficient and ice water content on a uniform 3-dimensional spatial grid. This presentation compares the ice cloud climatology derived from this product with two other ice cloud products, namely the raDAR/liDAR(DARDAR) ice cloud product and the CloudSat-CALIPSO Ice Cloud Property Product (2C-ICE). Using processing similar to the CALIPSO L3 product, granules of DARDAR and 2C-ICE data have been processed into monthly statistics for a better comparison. Similarities and differences will be presented and discussed. The findings illustrate the strengths of the different products and help to identify which product might be most appropriate for a given research topic.

Xia Cai↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Direct 3d-Cloud Estimates From Oco-2 Radiances

3d-clouds effects result from scattering from clouds outside the field of view. These effects have previously been shown to result in a bias in estimate of carbon dioxide on the order of 0.4 ppm for good quality, bias-corrected OCO-2 observations affected by 3d-clouds (Massie et al., 2021). In this paper we directly retrieve 3d-clouds from OCO-2 synthetic and actual radiances utilizing a spectral parametrization of 3d-clouds (Schmidt et al., 2023). We find that retrieving 3d-clouds results in improves carbon dioxide estimates affected by 3d-clouds but increases carbon dioxide scatter for scenes not affected by 3d-clouds. We also find a spectral residual pattern when 3d-cloud effects are present but not retrieved that can be used to identify scenes impacted by 3d-clouds.

Susan S Kulawik↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud Condensation Nuclei in the Early Martian Atmosphere

Explanations for how early Mars supported warmer and wetter conditions 3.5 to 4 billion years ago have long been debated. A water cloud greenhouse has been proposed as a mechanism of warming early Mars, but modeling studies of these environments produce mixed results. Studies show that both H 2 O and CO 2 clouds are capable of influencing atmospheric and surface temperatures, but the amount of warming induced is very sensitive to the cloud physics assumptions made. Producing a strong water cloud greenhouse effect is dependent on forming clouds as high in the atmosphere as possible to maximize warming. However, the majority of studies of H 2 O and CO 2 clouds on early Mars assume that a constant number of seed nuclei are available at all altitudes for clouds to condense onto. Here we test the validity of this assumption in massive CO 2 atmospheres. Explaining how dust is lofted into the middle atmosphere to serve as seed nuclei for cloud formation is a challenge even for present day Mars. This problem may change in an early Mars environment where having a more massive atmosphere could result in differences in the general circulation, vertical transport, and settling time scales of dust. Here, we begin a first-ever study of the early Mars dust cycle and how it might couple to the water cycle. We present early Mars simulations in which dust is injected at the surface and can be transported throughout the atmosphere. We explore the resulting vertical and horizontal distributions of dust particles and their sizes with an emphasis on the maximum height of the dust. We aim to investigate what the distribution of cloud condensation nuclei may have been on early Mars and how this might impact cloud formation.

Kathryn Steakley↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cloud Top Phase Characterization of Extratropical Cyclones over the Northeast and Midwest United States: Results from IMPACTS

Cloud top phase (CTP) impacts cloud albedo and pathways for ice particle nucleation, growth, and fallout within extratropical cyclones. This study uses airborne lidar, radar, and Rapid Refresh analysis data to characterize CTP within extratropical cyclones as a function of cloud top temperature (CTT). During the 2020, 2022, and 2023 Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign deployments, the Earth-Resources 2 (ER-2) aircraft flew 26 research flights over the Northeast and Midwest U.S. to sample the cloud tops of a variety of extratropical cyclones. A training dataset was developed to create probabilistic phase classifications based on Cloud Physics Lidar measurements of known ice and liquid clouds. These classifications were then used to quantify dominant CTP in the top 150 m of clouds sampled by the Cloud Physics Lidar in storms during IMPACTS. Case studies are presented illustrating examples of supercooled liquid water at cloud top at different CTT ranges (-3°C -20°C. Liquid-bearing cloud tops were found at CTTs as cold as -37ºC.

Troy J. Zaremba↗
NASA NTRS2021

Variation of Ice Microphysical Properties With Temperature and Humidity at Tops of Convective Clouds

A better understanding of the many interacting processes governing the evaluation of ice in natural clouds is required to improve the representation of ice clouds in global circulation models. Recent studies suggest a dominant role of vapor growth processes in determining the temperature dependence of cloud top ice sizes and shapes. Using airborne cloud remote sensing along with reanalysis data, here we show that observed cloud top ice effective radii and estimated normalized growth rates at cloud top highly correlate with an approximately linear relationship, which is consistent with a conceptual model also presented. Furthermore, significant differences in crystal shape characteristics and scattering asymmetry parameters are found between sub- and super-saturated cloud tops over ocean, although not over land. These results provide valuable observational targets for studying ice formation and evolution processes using models, while also helping interpretation of satellite observations of ice microphysical properties at cloud tops.

ice↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 °C and reduces inter-model spread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The role of local shipping emissions in aerosol-cloud interactions in the central Arctic

Arctic shipping is projected to increase as sea ice retreats, yet the impact of modern low-sulfur ship emissions on Arctic clouds and radiation remain poorly constrained. We use year-long in situ observations from the MOSAiC expedition to characterize ship-aerosol-cloud interactions for an icebreaker burning ultra-low sulfur fuel (0.1% mass per mass). Exhaust plumes were found to be strongly enriched in Aitken-mode particles, organic aerosol, and black carbon, but showed no detectable enhancement in particulate sulfate. Despite reduced hygroscopicity relative to ambient aerosols, ship emissions substantially increased local cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. A droplet activation parameterization was applied to quantify responses in cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) to ship-induced perturbations in low-level Arctic clouds. In winter, abundant background accumulation-mode particles from Arctic haze supplied nearly all cloud droplets, while additional particles from ship emissions had little impact on N d . In contrast, during summer months, when unperturbed background aerosol concentrations are low, ship emissions nearly doubled N d compared to average background conditions and increased N d by a factor of five compared to very clean background conditions (25th percentile of background aerosol number concentrations). Longwave radiative transfer simulations for typical conditions of summer Arctic low-level clouds/fog suggest that these ship-induced increases in N d locally (i.e. <100 km downwind) lead to enhanced net surface longwave fluxes and consequent warming, primarily for optically thin clouds (liquid water path (LWP) ⩽ 30 g·m −2 ). For LWP = 10 g · m −2 , ship emissions lead to an increase of 1 W · m −2 in cloud longwave forcing at the surface compared to average unperturbed conditions (+7% relative increase), and up to 4 W · m −2 when compared to very clean background conditions (+22% relative increase). Even ultra-low sulfur fuel emissions can therefore locally and episodically modify Arctic cloud microphysics and radiative properties, especially during summer, implying that future increases in Arctic shipping could have non-negligible regional climate impacts.

Arctic↗