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At least 1,117 records · Page 62

Considerations for Optimizing the Photometric Classification of Supernovae from the Rubin Observatory

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will increase the number of observed supernovae (SNe) by an order of magnitude; however, it is impossible to spectroscopically confirm the class for all SNe discovered. Thus, photometric classification is crucial, but its accuracy depends on the not-yet-finalized observing strategy of Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We quantitatively analyze the impact of the LSST observing strategy on SNe classification using simulated multiband light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). First, we augment the simulated training set to be representative of the photometric redshift distribution per SNe class, the cadence of observations, and the flux uncertainty distribution of the test set. Then we build a classifier using the photometric transient classification library snmachine, based on wavelet features obtained from Gaussian process fits, yielding a similar performance to the winning PLAsTiCC entry. We study the classification performance for SNe with different properties within a single simulated observing strategy. We find that season length is important, with light curves of 150 days yielding the highest performance. Cadence also has an important impact on SNe classification; events with median inter-night gap <3.5 days yield higher classification performance. Interestingly, we find that large gaps (>10 days) in light-curve observations do not impact performance if sufficient observations are available on either side, due to the effectiveness of the Gaussian process interpolation. This analysis is the first exploration of the impact of observing strategy on photometric SN classification with LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Highly Responsive Polar Vortices in All‐Ferroelectric Heterostructures

Abstract The discovery of polar vortices and skyrmions in ferroelectric‐dielectric superlattices [such as (PbTiO 3 ) n /(SrTiO 3 ) n ] has ushered in an era of novel dipolar topologies and corresponding emergent phenomena. The key to creating such emergent features has generally been considered to be related to counterpoising strongly polar and non‐polar materials thus creating the appropriate boundary conditions. This limits the utility these materials can have, however, by rendering (effectively) half of the structure unresponsive to applied stimuli. Here, using advanced thin‐film deposition and an array of characterization and simulation approaches, polar vortices are realized in all‐ferroelectric trilayers, multilayers, and superlattices built from the fundamental building block of (PbTiO 3 ) n /(Pb x Sr 1− x TiO 3 ) n wherein in‐plane ferroelectric polarization in the Pb x Sr 1− x TiO 3 provides the appropriate boundary conditions. These superlattices exhibit substantially enhanced electromechanical and ferroelectric responses in the out‐of‐plane direction that arise from the ability of the polarization in both layers to rotate to the out‐of‐plane direction under field. In the in‐plane direction, the layers are found to be strongly coupled during switching and when heterostructured with ferroelectric‐dielectric building blocks, it is possible to produce multistate switching. This approach expands the realm of systems supporting emergent dipolar texture formation and does so with entirely ferroelectric materials thus greatly improving their responses.

Kavle, Pravin↗

Model-based predictive control of multi-stage air-source heat pumps integrated with phase change material-embedded ceilings

This paper presents a model-based predictive control strategy to optimize the operations of phase change material (PCM) ceiling panels coupled with a multi-stage air-source heat pump. A three-stage prototype heat pump unit has been built and tested in the laboratory, with the low and medium stages designed for space heating/cooling and the high compression stage dedicated to charging of the PCM energy storage. To facilitate optimal control of the integrated heat pump system, a mixed-integer linear programming formulation is derived through linearization of the heat pump model and a mixed-integer reformulation of the PCM dynamic governing equations. A predictive control strategy is synthesized based on the resultant control formulation and implemented in a receding horizon scheme that optimizes the PCM charging and the zone temperature schedules simultaneously to leverage both the passive (associated with building construction materials) and active (PCM) storage capacities of a building. The control strategy has been tested along with three benchmarking control scenarios using a co-simulation platform for a prototypical detached house in Atlanta, GA. In this study, test results showed that application of the proposed control strategy to the PCM-integrated heat pump could provide 27.1% electricity cost savings while a fine tuned rule-based control strategy could achieve cost savings of 20.4%, compared to a baseline case without PCM storage, under a time-of-use rate tariff.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Standards, dissemination, and best practices in systems biology

In this study, the reproducibility of scientific research is crucial to the success of the scientific method. Here, we review the current best practices when publishing mechanistic models in systems biology. We recommend, where possible, to use software engineering strategies such as testing, verification, validation, documentation, versioning, iterative development, and continuous integration. In addition, adhering to the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable modeling principles allows other scientists to collaborate and build off of each other’s work. Existing standards such as Systems Biology Markup Language, CellML, or Simulation Experiment Description Markup Language can greatly improve the likelihood that a published model is reproducible, especially if such models are deposited in well-established model repositories. Where models are published in executable programming languages, the source code and their data should be published as open-source in public code repositories together with any documentation and testing code. For complex models, we recommend container-based solutions where any software dependencies and the run-time context can be easily replicated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tunable Nanostructures from Inverse Surfactants

Hierarchical materials in the natural world are often made through the self-assembly of amphiphilic molecules. Achieving similar structural complexity in synthetic materials requires understanding how various molecular parameters affect assembly behavior. In recent years, inverse surfactants─molecules with hydrophobic head groups and hydrophilic macromolecular tails─have been shown to self-assemble into supramolecular assemblies in aqueous solutions that show promise for a number of applications, including drug delivery. Here, we build an understanding of the morphological phase diagram of inverse surfactants using insights from scattering experiments, computer simulations, and statistical mechanics. The scattering and simulation results reveal that changing the headgroup size is an important molecular knob in controlling morphological transitions. The molecular size ratio of the hydrophobic group to the hydrophilic group emerges as a crucial dimensionless quantity in our theory and plays a determining role in setting the micelle structure and the transition from mesoscale to macroscale aggregates. Our minimal theory is able to qualitatively explain the key features of the morphological phase diagram, including the prevalence of fiber-like structures in comparison to spherical and planar micelles. Together, these findings provide a more complete picture of the molecular dependencies of assemblies of inverse surfactants, which we hope may aid in the de novo design of supramolecular structures.

Christakopoulos, Panagiotis [ORNL] (ORCID:00090004↗

Deep material network via a quilting strategy: visualization for explainability and recursive training for improved accuracy

Recent developments integrating micromechanics and neural networks offer promising paths for rapid predictions of the response of heterogeneous materials with similar accuracy as direct numerical simulations. The deep material network is one such approaches, featuring a multi-layer network and micromechanics building blocks trained on anisotropic linear elastic properties. Once trained, the network acts as a reduced-order model, which can extrapolate the material’s behavior to more general constitutive laws, including nonlinear behaviors, without the need to be retrained. However, current training methods initialize network parameters randomly, incurring inevitable training and calibration errors. Here, we introduce a way to visualize the network parameters as an analogous unit cell and use this visualization to “quilt” patches of shallower networks to initialize deeper networks for a recursive training strategy. The result is an improvement in the accuracy and calibration performance of the network and an intuitive visual representation of the network for better explainability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of magnetic and electric fields on the free energy to form a calcium carbonate ion-pair

Electromagnetic fields are used in water treatment and desalination to regulate scale formation and extend the lifetime of membranes. External electric and magnetic fields can promote or suppress mineral nucleation and growth. However, the molecular-scale mechanisms of such processes remain unknown. Computing the free energies needed to form ion pairs under external fields provides important insights into understanding the elemental steps during the initial formation of mineral scales. In this paper, we used molecular dynamics combined with metadynamics simulations to investigate the free energies of forming the [Ca–CO 3 ] 0 ion pair, a fundamental building block of carbonate scales, under a range of magnetic (up to 10 T) and electric (up to 10 V m −1 ) fields in water. The presence of constant magnetic or electric fields favored the ion pairing reaction and lowered the free energies by up to 3% to 6%. The internal energy and entropic components of the free energy showed significant changes and exhibited non-linear behavior with increasing field strength. The [Ca–CO 3 ] 0 ion pairing is an entropy-driven process in the absence of an external field, but the mechanism shifts to an internal energy-driven process under selected external fields, suggesting possible changes in the nucleation pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Turbulence suppression at extreme plasma densities on DIII-D and EAST

Recent high-poloidal-beta (high-βP) experiments on DIII-D and EAST have made coordinated breakthroughs for high confinement quality at high density near the Greenwald limit. Density gradient amplification of turbulence suppression at high βP can explain both of these achievements. Experiments on DIII-D have achieved Greenwald fraction (fGr = line-averaged density/Greenwald density) above 1 simultaneously with normalized energy confinement (H98y2) around 1.5, as required in fusion reactor designs but never before verified in tokamak experiments with the divertor configuration. A synergy between increased H98y2 and fGr is observed with strong gas puffing, due to the build-up of an internal transport barrier at large radius in the temperature and density channels. Transport simulations reveal that the favorable trend of reduced turbulent energy transport at higher density is only expected when increasing the density gradient at high local safety factor and high β, thus at high βP to ensure strong α-stabilization. These conditions are crucial to many conceptual designs for steady-state reactors. New experiments on EAST have nearly doubled the ion temperature at fGr ∼ 0.9, consistent with predict-first modeling results based on the same physics revealed from the DIII-D analysis. All previous EAST long-pulse H-modes have Ti ≪ Te near plasma axis. Transport modeling indicates that the profiles are limited by ion-temperature-gradient modes at mid-radius. The modeling also suggested potential solutions, including reducing magnetic shear, enhancing density gradients, and higher impurity concentration. Following this guidance, EAST experiments directly show a strong enhancement of Ti achieved with a combination of a second plasma current ramp-up, a density gradient increase, and a Zeff perturbation by a short pulse (100 ms) of impurity injection, as predicted by the earlier modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analog-to-digital converter based on voltage-controlled superconducting devices

The increasing demand for cryogenic electronics in superconducting and quantum computing systems calls for ultra-energy-efficient data conversion architectures that remain functional at deep cryogenic temperatures. Here, in this work, we present the first design of a voltage-controlled superconducting flash analog-to-digital converter (ADC) based on a voltage-controlled quantum-enhanced Josephson junction field-effect transistor (JJFET). Exploiting its strong gate tunability and transistor-like behavior, the JJFET offers a scalable alternative to conventional current-controlled superconducting devices while aligning naturally with CMOS-style design methodologies. Building on our previously developed Verilog-A compact model calibrated to experimental data, we design and simulate a three-bit JJFET-based flash ADC targeted for integration within cryogenic control and readout circuitry in quantum computing. The core comparator block is realized through careful bias current selection and augmented with a three-terminal nanocryotron to precisely define reference voltages. Cascaded JJFET comparators ensure robust voltage gain, cascadability, and logic-level restoration across stages. Simulation results demonstrate accurate quantization behavior with ultra-low power dissipation, underscoring the feasibility of voltage-driven superconducting mixed-signal circuits. This work establishes a critical step toward unifying superconducting logic and data conversion, paving the way for scalable cryogenic architectures in quantum–classical co-processors, low-power artificial intelligence accelerators, and next-generation energy-constrained computing platforms.

Analog-to-digital converter↗

Development of a Test-Bed for Testing and Refining EarthEn’s Supercritical CO 2 Based Energy Storage System

EarthEn’s energy storage concept leverages supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as a working fluid and relies on compact, high-performance components operating at elevated pressures and temperatures. To accelerate component development and reduce technical risk prior to larger-scale demonstrations, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed a 100 kW-scale sCO 2 test-bed under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with EarthEn (CRADA NO. NFE-24-10050). The objective of the work was to design and construct a flexible experimental facility capable of reproducing key thermodynamic state points and heat-transfer conditions relevant to EarthEn’s thermal energy storage (TES) cycle, with particular emphasis on enabling development and evaluation of next-generation heat exchangers and TES concepts. The test-bed consists of a closed-loop sCO 2 circulation system housed within an open-topped enclosure. In its as-installed configuration, dense-phase sCO 2 is recirculated through a printed circuit recuperator, an electrically heated section, a throttling device used to simulate turbine expansion, and a water-cooled printed circuit heat exchanger that rejects heat to the building chilled-water system before returning to the pump. The pump is driven by a variable frequency drive, enabling controlled adjustment of flow and operating point. A comprehensive instrumentation suite was integrated to support both safe operation and high-quality data collection. Installed sensors include Coriolis flow meters for sCO 2 flow rate and density, resistance temperature detectors and thermocouples distributed throughout the loop (including the heated section and key heat exchanger ports), and pressure transducers for absolute and differential pressure measurements. The facility was designed to support high-pressure (19 MPa nominal) and high-temperature (575°C nominal) operation with credited overpressure protection provided by a rupture disk. Nominal operating conditions were selected to support 100 kW-class testing while maintaining flexibility for non-heated and heated shakedown, control development, and future integration of advanced TES test sections. In parallel with facility development, a system-level thermal-hydraulic model was created using Modelica-based tools to support component sizing, anticipate performance over targeted test conditions, and establish a framework for future model calibration against experimental data. At the conclusion of the project performance period, the facility was in final assembly, and the pressure boundary was nearly completed. However, several practical challenges associated with high-pressure/high-temperature systems and specialized component procurement impacted schedule and prevented initial pump-driven operation and full commissioning within the available resources. This report documents the as-built design, operating capabilities, and instrumentation, and it summarizes key lessons learned related to heater fabrication and testing, first-of-a-kind assembly factors, specialty flange supply constraints, and fill pump corrective actions. Finally, it outlines a phased plan for future commissioning and experimental campaigns, including control and instrumentation shakedown, heater characterization, model calibration, and testing at state points representative of EarthEn’s TES cycle.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗

Electrical and Thermal Load Impacts of Three District Heating and Cooling Designs for an Existing Community in Washington, DC

District energy systems that provide building heating and cooling are a promising option to provide low-cost, energy efficient heating and cooling solutions for communities. As some buildings move to electrified heating designs, there may be significant increases in electric grid demand, particularly in the winter. District energy systems may be able to help reduce these high electrical demands on the electric grid, while also providing decreased overall energy consumption with an increased flexibility in electrical energy usage. To evaluate and compare district options for district-based heating and cooling, an existing neighborhood of Washington, DC consisting of 35 existing buildings was selected as a case study. This study models and compares a fourth generation (4G) district heating and cooling systems that provide hot and chilled water from a central plant directly to each prosumer and a fifth generation (5G) district heating and cooling systems that provide near-ambient water via geothermal boreholes to interface with an energy transfer station with a heat pump at each prosumer. These district systems are compared against a baseline of the non-connected buildings with their self-contained and current HVAC systems. The neighborhood was selected as a good candidate for a district system for its diversity of loads (mix of different commercial and property types) and the availability of building characteristics. URBANopt District Energy Systems (DES) was used to model the buildings and create initial Modelica models for the district systems. Finally, the DES models were tuned and simulated in Dymola, and the outputs were post-processed for verification and to calculate the electrical and thermal grid impact metrics. This is the first documentation of this workflow and its complete analysis. The three designed systems are compared via their grid metrics including: total energy consumption, electrical demand peak loads, daily peak-to-valley ratios, and system ramping. A detailed discussion is provided about how each system impacts and interacts with the electric grid.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Searches Beyond the Standard Model in the ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift Detector

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events—making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving 31.9 ± 0.2% (26.6 ± 0.2%) ν efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, 17.5 ± 0.3% (18.3 ± 0.3%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

60 years of science in ICF: from conception to scientific breakeven on the National Ignition Facility

The recent achievements of a burning plasma, fusion ignition, and scientific energy gain with deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) represents a major milestone in the development of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and all of fusion research. In these experiments, fuel pressures well in excess of hundreds of GBars were achieved in the compressed fuel, and robust alpha heating of the fuel, far in excess of the energy provided by the implosion, were demonstrated for the first time. These achievements occurred 60 years after the inception of ICF and the first laser demonstration, and were made possible by more than five decades of research at laser facilities around the world. Advances in laser technology both in wavelength and precision, motivated by improved understanding of laser-plasma interaction physics and the demands of targets; improvements in target fabrication inspired by the need to control and minimize hydrodynamic instabilities in the implosion; and multi-dimensional simulations and diagnostics have been critical to this achievement. This paper will summarize the scientific and technical advances, the surprises, and the challenges that had to be overcome to achieve these goals.

fusion↗

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗