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WFPC2 Observations of the URSA Minor Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

We present our analysis of archival Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) observations in F555W (approximately V) and F814W (approximately I) of the central region of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The V versus V - I color-magnitude diagram features a sparsely populated blue horizontal branch, a steep thin red giant branch, and a narrow subgiant branch. The main sequence reaches approximately 2 magnitudes below the main-sequence turnoff (V(sup UMi, sub TO) approximately equals 23.27 +/- 0.11 mag) of the median stellar population. We compare the fiducial sequence of the Galactic globular cluster M92 (NGC 6341). The excellent match between Ursa Minor and M92 confirms that the median stellar population of the UMi dSph galaxy is metal poor ([Fe/H](sub UMi) approximately equals [Fe/H](sub M92) approximately equals -2.2 dex) and ancient (age(sub UMi)approximately equalsage(sub M92) approximately equals 14 Gyr). The B - V reddening and the absorption in V are estimated to be E(B - V) = 0.03 +/- 0.01 mag and A(sup UMi, sub V) = 0.09 +/- 0.03 mag. A new estimate of the distance modulus of Ursa Minor, (m - M)(sup UMi, sub 0) = 19.18 +/- 0.12 mag, has been derived based on fiducial-sequence fitting M92 [DELTA.V(sub UMi - M92) = 4.60 +/- 0.03 mag and DELTA(V - I)(sub UMi - M92) = 0.010 +/- 0.005 mag] and the adoption of the apparent V distance modulus for M92 of (m - M)(sup M92, sub V) = 14.67 +/- 0.08 mag (Pont et al. 1998, A&A, 329, 87). The Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy is then at a distance of 69 +/- 4 kpc from the Sun. These HST observations indicate that Ursa Minor has had a very simple star formation history consisting mainly of a single major burst of star formation about 14 Gyr ago which lasted approximately < 2 Gyr. While we may have missed minor younger stellar populations due to the small field-of-view of the WFPC2 instrument, these observations clearly show that most of the stars in the central region Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy are ancient. If the ancient Galactic globular clusters, like M92, formed concurrently with the early formation of the Milky Way galaxy itself, then the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal is probably as old as the Milky Way.

Mighell, Kenneth J.↗

Application of a Bank of Kalman Filters for Aircraft Engine Fault Diagnostics

In this paper, a bank of Kalman filters is applied to aircraft gas turbine engine sensor and actuator fault detection and isolation (FDI) in conjunction with the detection of component faults. This approach uses multiple Kalman filters, each of which is designed for detecting a specific sensor or actuator fault. In the event that a fault does occur, all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis will produce large estimation errors, thereby isolating the specific fault. In the meantime, a set of parameters that indicate engine component performance is estimated for the detection of abrupt degradation. The proposed FDI approach is applied to a nonlinear engine simulation at nominal and aged conditions, and the evaluation results for various engine faults at cruise operating conditions are given. The ability of the proposed approach to reliably detect and isolate sensor and actuator faults is demonstrated.

Kobayashi, Takahisa↗

Quantification of rat retinal growth and vascular population changes after single and split doses of proton irradiation: translational study using stereology methods

This study quantified architectural and population changes in the rat retinal vasculature after proton irradiation using stereology. A 100 MeV conformal proton beam delivered 8, 14, 20 and 28 Gy as single and split doses to the whole eye. The vascular networks were prepared from retinal digests. Stereological methods were used to obtain the area of the retina and unbiased estimates of microvessel/artery/vein endothelial, pericyte and smooth muscle population, and vessel length. The retinal area increased progressively in the unirradiated, age-matched controls and in the retinas irradiated with 8 and 14 Gy, indicating uniform progressive retinal growth. No growth occurred after 20 and 28 Gy. Regression analysis of total endothelial cell number in all vessels (arteries, veins and capillaries) after irradiation documented a progressive time- and dose-dependent cell loss occurring over 15 to 24 months. The difference from controls was significant (P<0.01) after 28 Gy given in single and split doses and after 20 Gy given as a split dose (P<0.05). Total vessel length in microvessel was significantly shortened at 20 and 28 Gy compared to that of controls (P<0.05). No evident dose recovery was observed in the endothelial populations after split doses. At 10 Gy, the rate of endothelial cell loss, a dose parameter used to characterize the time- and dose-dependent loss of the endothelial population, was doubled.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Coming of Age: Polarization as a Probe of Plant Canopy Water Status

We tested the hypothesis that the relative water content (RWC) of the sunlit leaves in a plant canopy may be estimated from polarized canopy imagery. Recently (IGARSS, July 27-31, 2015, Milan, Italy), we reported the results of laboratory polarization measurements of single detached leaves during dry down. We found that RWC was linearly related to the ratio of the reflectance of the interior of the leaf and the leaf transmittance. Here we report application of the laboratory results to estimate RWC for sunlit leaves in a plant canopy. Using a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) Nikon 810 camera with Nikkor 300 mm lens and Polaroid type HN-22 linear polarizer, we photographed in the principle plane a plant canopy displaying a gradient of water stress and collected, at each of multiple points along the gradient, two images, one with the polarization filter oriented for maximum scene response and a second with the filter oriented for minimum scene response. We converted the digital values in the two images to reflectance factor with reference to images of a white, flat, horizontal Spectralon surface. We classified the polarization imagery, identifying reflecting leaves, transmitting leaves, other sunlit vegetation and shadows. For each image pair we normalized the leaf internal reflectance by dividing by the cosine of the angle of incidence of the sunlight on the leaf, selected the leaf maximum transmittance in the scene and divided to obtain the ratio reflectance/transmittance, which we compared with leaf RWC. We determined the leaf relative water content by harvesting a section of leaf and immediately placing it in a sealed container in an ice chest. Later in the laboratory the leaf sample was weighed, rehydrated, weighed, dried and again weighed. RWC was determined using the standard formula. Our experimental results support our hypothesis, suggesting that the RWC of sunlit leaves in a plant canopy may be estimated from analysis of polarization imagery collected by a COTS camera system. Unlike remotely sensed estimates of canopy equivalent water thickness, our estimates of the RWC of sunlit canopy leaves provide leaf physiological information. We propose RWC estimates based upon sunlit leaves are more relevant to assessing the water status of a plant canopy than would be RWC estimates based upon large FOV canopy measurements.

estimates↗

Evaluation of Automotive Grade Resistors for Space Flight

Over the past decade, electronic, electrical, and electromechanical (EEE) parts for space applications have undergone significant changes, largely driven by CubeSat and commercial space developers pushing the boundaries on the utilization of commercial parts in space. Global product shortages and shipping delays are still impacting space flight project deadlines. Many projects have turned to automotive grade resistors as an alternate to their MILSPEC counterparts to fulfill requirements. In addition, automotive grade resistors may offer designers a wider range of parts to consider. A recent NASA study recommended the use of high-volume manufactured commercial components for space applications provided these components show evidence of stringent fabrication controls and thorough reliability monitoring practices. Automotive grade components have stringent qualification requirements per the Automotive Electronic Council (AEC). However, the end user usually does not have insight into the practices the manufacturer may use to reduce/eliminate infant mortality nor for compliance to all datasheet specifications. Screening, Life and Accelerated Life testing on a set of standard automotive-grade chip resistors is proposed to evaluate the reliability of these components. Requirements from both the AEC-Q (Automotive Electronic Council Qualification) and EEE-INST-002 (Instructions for EEE Parts Selection, Screening, Qualification, and Derating) for resistors is compared and discussed. The resistors have been tested by using a modified methodology from EEEINST-002 to evaluate their reliability for space flight projects. The findings of this study indicate that the underlying degradation mechanisms at rated temperature and power are best represented by power law models with a fitted exponent between 0 and 1. A linear model is more conservative which compensates for potential model uncertainty given the wide range of design and materials used in automotive resistors, while still providing useful long-term resistance drift estimates. No electrical anomalies or failures were observed throughout the 1000-hour Life Tests other than small in tolerance resistance drift aging. Degradation models were utilized to quantify and extrapolate the long-term resistance drift under operating conditions for the components. The models demonstrated that some automotive-grade resistors are likely to operate 10 years at nominal usage conditions while others might fail earlier.

Zainab Abdullahi↗

Impact of CSPE Jackets on Accelerated Aging of Harvested Cable Insulations in Support of Remaining Useful Life Assessments

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are operating beyond their original 40-year operating lifetime, with more than 80% operating on the first license renewal for an extended 20-years. To sustain the effective and cost-effective operation of their electrical cables, understanding cable material performance in current and future environments can lead to effective maintenance strategies and condition monitoring protocols. Addressing the issue of long-term operation and viability, accelerated aging was carried out on chlorosulfonated polyethylene (CSPE) / ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) insulations that were removed from harvested electrical cables. Cables were obtained as part of the Light Water Reactor and Sustainability (LWRS) Zion Harvesting Project in cooperation with Energy Solutions and the U.S. NRC. Zion NPP was in operation for 25 years prior to decommissioning before its 40-year operation license had expired.For the Boston Insulated Wire (BIW) manufactured EPR insulation with outer CSPE jackets, degradation was observed in mechanical properties with respect to time and temperature was observed. This degradation was impacted by the outer CSPE jacket as the increase in to the time to degradation at the same temperature was observed for EPR insulations with the outer CSPE jacket removed prior to aging. The correlation of IM and density to EAB also suggested that these parameters could also be used effectively in the estimates of activation energy with additional data. Arrhenius analysis on the mechanical degradation as measured by EAB for the two types of BIW EPR insulations with outer CSPE jackets estimated activation energies slightly different (BIW-A without outer CSPE jacket 1.58 eV, BIW-B with outer CSPE jacket 1.10 eV) than the 1.24 eV found in from analysis of EAB data found in Zion NPP BIW insulation documentation. These values were higher than those previously reported of 0.90 eV to 0.96 eV for CSPE and EPR materials in the literature and additional measurements are needed to further validate the increase in activation energy for these harvested materials and possible impact on remaining useful life estimation. Finally, FTIR analysis showed differences in the oxidation as measured by decrease in C-H bonds in EPR insulation and CSPE jackets and increase in C-O bonds in certain cases.

Davis, Sarah M.↗

Ensuring Workforce Readiness for the Energy Industry Through 3D Simulations

In February 2009, during his joint address to Congress, President Obama challenged every American to commit to at least one year of college education and set a goal that the United States should once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world by the year 2020. This push by the Obama administration reflected the understanding that while a college degree was becoming a prerequisite to obtain many of the jobs in the 21. century economy; the United States still lagged behind other countries with respect to higher education attainment. Because of this, the U.S. is facing a skills gap between the credentials required for the jobs of today and tomorrow, and the number of skilled workers eligible to fill those jobs. Within the energy industry, the skills gap is compounded by two factors: an expanding domestic industry in energy generation and transmission, and an aging workforce set to retire in large numbers. In fact, a 2013 survey administered by Center for Energy Workforce Development (CEWD) estimates that 36% of the workforce may need to be replaced in the next five years, and nearly 50% will need to be replaced by the year 2023. As a 2014 report by CEWD notes, 'The message for workforce development is clear: qualified and skilled utility technicians and engineers will continue to be in high demand in all types of energy generation, transmission, and distribution jobs'. Simulations provide students the ability to practice proper procedure in a safe environment, test out multiple scenarios to determine an optimal outcome, and repeat practice to solidify learning. Industry currently applies simulation (i.e., 3D Electrical Substation Simulation) as it affords an opportunity for technicians to train in a safe, virtual environment, thus eliminating risks associated with arc flash hazards. The intent of 3D simulation is to enhance the students' understanding of the concepts learned in the course and better prepare students for field work in a related technical discipline. The 3D simulation will reinforce the concepts learned during a specific course and are intended to add real world context to the curriculum. The 3D simulation will be designed such that a student will perform specific job activities incorporating concepts learned during the course. This method of instruction ensures students have an understanding of the concepts and are able to apply the concepts in a real world context. Different scenarios will be developed to ensure a thorough understanding of the concepts with real time feedback when there is a misunderstanding of the concepts. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation of the Web-Based IBTR! 2.0 Nomogram to Predict for Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram, which predicts 10-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving therapy with and without radiation therapy for breast cancer, by using a large, external, and independent cancer center database. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively identified 1898 breast cancer cases, treated with breast-conserving therapy and radiation therapy at the University Hospital Leuven from 2000 to 2007, with requisite data for the nomogram variables. Clinicopathologic factors were assessed. Two definitions of IBTR were considered where simultaneous regional or distant recurrence were either censored (conform IBTR! 2.0) or included as event. Validity of the prediction algorithm was tested in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by the concordance probability estimate and Harrell's concordance index. The mean predicted and observed 10-year estimates were compared for the entire cohort and for 4 risk groups predefined by nomogram-predicted IBTR risks, and a calibration plot was drawn. Results: Median follow-up was 10.9 years. The 10-year IBTR rates were 1.3% and 2.1%, according to the 2 definitions of IBTR. The validation cohort differed from the development cohort with respect to the administration of hormonal therapy, surgical section margins, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor size. In univariable analysis, younger age (P=.002) and a positive nodal status (P=.048) were significantly associated with IBTR, with a trend for the omission of hormonal therapy (P=.061). The concordance probability estimate and concordance index varied between 0.57 and 0.67 for the 2 definitions of IBTR. In all 4 risk groups the model overestimated the IBTR risk. In particular, between the lowest-risk groups a limited differentiation was suggested by the calibration plot. Conclusions: The IBTR! 2.0 predictive model for IBTR in breast cancer patients shows substandard discriminative ability, with an overestimation of the risk in all subgroups.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Aging Behavior of the Viton® Fluoroelastomer O-Rings in the 9975 Shipping Package

The 9975 Type B shipping package is used within the DOE complex for shipping special nuclear materials. This package is re-certified annually in accordance with Safety Analysis Report requirements. The package is also used at the Savannah River Site as part of the long-term storage configuration of special nuclear materials. As such, the packages do not undergo annual recertification during storage, with uncertainty as to how long some of the package components will meet their functional requirements in the storage environment. The packages are currently approved for up to 15 years storage, and work continues to provide a technical basis to extend that period. This paper describes efforts by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to extend the service life estimate of Viton® GLT and GLT-S fluoroelastomer O-rings used in the 9975 shipping package. O-rings of both compositions are undergoing accelerated aging at elevated temperature, and are periodically tested for compression stress relaxation (CSR) behavior and leak performance. The CSR behavior of O-rings was evaluated at temperatures from 79 °C to 177 °C. These collective data were used to develop predictive models for extrapolation of CSR behavior to relevant service temperatures (< 75 °C). O-rings were also aged in Primary Containment Vessel (PCV) fixtures at temperatures ranging from 79 °C to 232 °C. The fixtures are helium leak tested periodically to determine if they remain leak-tight. The PCV fixture tests demonstrate that the 9975 O-rings will remain leak-tight at temperatures up to 149 °C for 3 years or more, and no leak failures have been observed with up to 8 years aging at 93 °C. Significantly longer periods of leak-tight service are expected at the lower temperatures actually experienced in the storage environment. The predictive model developed from the CSR data conservatively indicates a service life of more than 20 years at the bounding temperature of 75 °C. Although the relationship between CSR behavior and leak-tight performance has not been established for this design, the CSR predictions for this O-ring are conservative relative to leak-tight performance to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hydrogen Isotopic Composition of Apatite in Northwest Africa 7034: A Record of the "Intermediate" H-Isotopic Reservoir in the Martian Crust?

Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034 and its pairings comprise a regolith breccia with a basaltic bulk composition [1] that yields a better match than any other martian meteorite to visible-infrared reflectance spectra of the martian surface measured from orbit [2]. The composition of the fine-grained matrix within NWA 7034 bears a striking resemblance to the major element composition estimated for the martian crust, with several exceptions. The NWA 7034 matrix is depleted in Fe, Ti, and Cr and enriched in Al, Na, and P [3]. The differences in Al and Fe are the most substantial, but the Fe content of NWA 7034 matrix falls within the range reported for the southern highlands crust [6]. It was previously suggested by [4] that NWA 7034 was sourced from the southern highlands based on the ancient 4.4 Ga ages recorded in NWA 7034/7533 zircons [4, 5]. In addition, the NWA 7034 matrix material is enriched in incompatible trace elements by a factor of 1.2-1.5 [7] relative to estimates of the bulk martian crust. The La/Yb ratio of the bulk martian crust is estimated to be approximately 3 [7], and the La/Yb of the NWA 7034 matrix materials ranges from approximately 3.9 to 4.4 [3, 8], indicating a higher degree of LREE enrichment in the NWA 7034 matrix materials. This elevated La/Yb ratio and enrichment in incompatible lithophile trace elements is consistent with NWA 7034 representing a more geochemically enriched crustal terrain than is represented by the bulk martian crust, which would be expected if NWA 7034 represents the bulk crust from the southern highlands. Given the similarities between NWA 7034 and the martian crust, NWA 7034 may represent an important sample for constraining the composition of the martian crust, particularly the ancient highlands. In the present study, we seek to constrain the H isotopic composition of the martian crust using Cl-rich apatite in NWA 7034. Usui et al., [9] recently proposed that a H isotopic reservoir exists within the martian crust that has a H-isotopic composition that is intermediate (δD of 1000-2000per mille) between an isotopically light mantle (Delta D is less than 275per mille [10]) and an isotopically heavy atmosphere (δD of 2500-6100per mille [11, 12]). Apatites in NWA 7034 occur in a number of lithologic domains, however apatites across all lithologic domains have been affected by a Pb-loss event at about 1.5 Ga before present [5], so they are unlikely to have retained a primary composition and are more likely to have equilibrated with fluids within the martian crust that may or may not have exchanged with the martian atmosphere. Equilibration of apatite with crustal fluids is further supported by the chlorine-rich compositions exhibited by apatites in NWA 7034 in comparison to apatites from other martian meteorites (Figure 1; [13]). Cl is more hydrophilic than F, which promotes formation of Cl-rich apatite compositions in fluid-rich systems [e.g., 14, 15-17].

McCubbin, F. M.↗

Helium bubble formation in aged plutonium metal at ambient conditions

A model of helium bubble formation is developed that assumes the initial nascent bubbles are generated when two diffusing helium atoms come within a distance of about the interatomic spacing of the plutonium atoms. These nascent bubbles are assumed to be locked in place and grow as additional helium atoms diffuse across their surfaces. Calculations of the helium-bubble number density and sizes as a function of age are compared to experiment. This leads to an inferred helium diffusion coefficient of-the-order of 10 -20 m 2 /s, supports the idea that most of the helium from alpha-decay end up in bubbles, and that previous transmission electron microscopy size estimates are biased low. The energy that helium can transfer to 40-year-old plutonium, upon expansion, is determined to be <0.1 Joules per gram of metal. The model predicts differences between the bubble properties in naturally and accelerated aged plutonium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wildfires Dynamics in Mid-Siberian Larch Dominated Communities

The longterm wildfire dynamics, including fire return interval (FRI), in Siberian larch communities were examined. A wildfire chronology encompassing the 15th through the 20th centuries was developed from analyzing tree stem fire scars. Two methods were used to calculate the time interval between fires: 1) direct counting of annual tree growth rings between stem fire scars and 2) the next earlier fire date was estimated from growth ring analysis and added to the first estimate. Average FRI determined from stem fire scar dating was 82 plus or minus 7 using Method I or 95 plus or minus 7 when age of the next earlier fire was inferred from observed larch regeneration structure (Method II). FRI was also found to be dependent on site topography. FRI on north-east facing slopes was 86 plus or minus 11 years (105 plus or minus 12). FRI on south-west facing slopes was significantly less at 61 plus or minus 8 (73 plus ot minus 8) years. Flat terrain showed little difference between methods 68 plus or minus 14 (70 plus or minus 13). This was also the case for bogs, but FRI was much longer; 139 plus or minus 17 (138 plus ot minus 18). The maximum number of annual fires occurred with periods of 36 and 82 years on average. The temporal trend in the FRI decreased from 101 years in the 19 th century to 65 years in the 20th century. The effect of post-fire forest recovery on depth to permafrost was also estimated. After initial melting from increased local temperatures permafrost depth decreased at a rate of 0.3 cm/yr on average as forest canopies developed.

Kharuk, V. I.↗

Coordinated U–Pb geochronology, trace element, Ti-in-zircon thermometry and microstructural analysis of Apollo zircons

Here, we present the results of a coordinated SIMS U–Pb, trace element, Ti-in-zircon thermometry, and microstructural study of 155 lunar zircons separated from Apollo 14, 15, and 17 breccia and soil samples that help resolve discrepancies between the zircon data, the lunar whole rock history and lunar magma ocean crystallization models. The majority of lunar grains are detrital fragments, some nearly 1 mm in length, of large parent crystals suggesting that they crystallized in highly enriched KREEP magmas. The zircon age distributions for all three landing sites exhibit an abundance of ages at ~4.33 Ga, however they differ in that only Apollo 14 samples have a population of zircons with ages between 4.1 and 3.9 Ga. These younger grains comprise only 10% of all dated lunar zircons and are usually small and highly shocked making them more susceptible to Pb-loss. These observations suggest that the majority of zircons crystallized before 4.1 Ga and that KREEP magmatism had predominantly ceased by this time. We also observed that trace element analyses are easily affected by contributions from inclusions (typically injected impact melt) within SIMS analyses spots. After filtering for these effects, rare-earth element (REE) abundances of pristine zircon are consistent with one pattern characterized by a negative Eu anomaly and no positive Ce anomaly, implying that the zircons formed in a reducing environment. This inference is consistent with crystallization temperatures based on measured Ti concentrations and new estimates of oxide activities which imply temperatures ranging between 958 ± 57 and 1321 ± 100 °C, suggesting that zircon parent magmas were anhydrous. Together, the lunar zircon ages and trace elements are consistent with a ≤300 My duration of KREEP magmatism under anhydrous, reducing conditions. We also report two granular texture zircons that contain baddeleyite cores, which both yield 207 Pb– 206 Pb ages of 4.33 Ga. These grains are our best constraints on impact ages within our sample population, and suggest at least one large impact is contemporaneous with the most common time of magmatic zircon formation on the Moon’s crust visited by the Apollo missions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Three very cool degenerate stars in Luyten common proper motion binaries - Implications for the age of the galactic disk

During the course of a spectroscopic study of Luyten common proper motion (CPM) stars, spectrophotometric observations have been obtained of three binaries containing degenerate stars with estimated absolute magnitudes M(V) of about 16. Each of the three pairs consists of a yellow degenerate star primary and a DC 13 + secondary 1.4-2.3 mag fainter. One of the primary stars is spectral class DC 7, another is a sharp-lined DA 8, and the third shows peculiar broad absorption features which we interpret as pressure-shifted C2 Swan bands. The LP 701 - 69/70 system has survived for over 8 billion years without disruption by passing stars, despite its 1500 a.u. orbital major axis. The three cool degenerate companions nearly double the available sample of stars at the low-luminosity terminus of the white dwarf cooling sequence. These findings appear consistent with the conclusion that degenerate stars in the old disk population have not had time to evolve to a luminosity fainter than M(V) about 16.2.

Hintzen, Paul↗

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or timeintensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)-a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building's monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building's electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE's Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization's challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

BETTER↗

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or time- intensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)—a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building’s monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building’s electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE’s Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization’s challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

Li, han↗

Predictors of Individual Tumor Local Control After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Brain Metastases

Purpose: To evaluate local control rates and predictors of individual tumor local control for brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: Between June 1998 and May 2011, 401 brain metastases in 228 patients were treated with Gamma Knife single-fraction SRS. Local failure was defined as an increase in lesion size after SRS. Local control was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to identify an optimal cutpoint for conformality index relative to local control. A P value <.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Median age was 60 years (range, 27-84 years). There were 66 cerebellar metastases (16%) and 335 supratentorial metastases (84%). The median prescription dose was 20 Gy (range, 14-24 Gy). Median overall survival from time of SRS was 12.1 months. The estimated local control at 12 months was 74%. On multivariate analysis, cerebellar location (hazard ratio [HR] 1.94, P=.009), larger tumor volume (HR 1.09, P<.001), and lower conformality (HR 0.700, P=.044) were significant independent predictors of local failure. Conformality index cutpoints of 1.4-1.9 were predictive of local control, whereas a cutpoint of 1.75 was the most predictive (P=.001). The adjusted Kaplan-Meier 1-year local control for conformality index ≥1.75 was 84% versus 69% for conformality index <1.75, controlling for tumor volume and location. The 1-year adjusted local control for cerebellar lesions was 60%, compared with 77% for supratentorial lesions, controlling for tumor volume and conformality index. Conclusions: Cerebellar tumor location, lower conformality index, and larger tumor volume were significant independent predictors of local failure after SRS for brain metastases from NSCLC. These results warrant further investigation in a prospective setting.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Empirical Modeling of Plant Gas Fluxes in Controlled Environments

As humans extend their reach beyond the earth, bioregenerative life support systems must replace the resupply and physical/chemical systems now used. The Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) will utilize plants to recycle the carbon dioxide (CO2) and excrement produced by humans and return oxygen (O2), purified water and food. CELSS design requires knowledge of gas flux levels for net photosynthesis (PS(sub n)), dark respiration (R(sub d)) and evapotranspiration (ET). Full season gas flux data regarding these processes for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) from published sources were used to develop empirical models. Univariate models relating crop age (days after planting) and gas flux were fit by simple regression. Models are either high order (5th to 8th) or more complex polynomials whose curves describe crop development characteristics. The models provide good estimates of gas flux maxima, but are of limited utility. To broaden the applicability, data were transformed to dimensionless or correlation formats and, again, fit by regression. Polynomials, similar to those in the initial effort, were selected as the most appropriate models. These models indicate that, within a cultivar, gas flux patterns appear remarkably similar prior to maximum flux, but exhibit considerable variation beyond this point. This suggests that more broadly applicable models of plant gas flux are feasible, but univariate models defining gas flux as a function of crop age are too simplistic. Multivariate models using CO2 and crop age were fit for PS(sub n), and R(sub d) by multiple regression. In each case, the selected model is a subset of a full third order model with all possible interactions. These models are improvements over the univariate models because they incorporate more than the single factor, crop age, as the primary variable governing gas flux. They are still limited, however, by their reliance on the other environmental conditions under which the original data were collected. Three-dimensional plots representing the response surface of each model are included. Suitability of using empirical models to generate engineering design estimates is discussed. Recommendations for the use of more complex multivariate models to increase versatility are included.

Cornett, Jessie David↗