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NASA NTRS1998

Seasonal Evolution of Rossby and Gravity Wave Induced Laminae in Ozonesonde Data Obtained from Wallops Island, Virginia

A method for evaluating the seasonal evolution of ozone laminae using ozonesonde data is discussed. The method uses the correlation between small-scale ozone and potential temperature variations to distinguish between laminae generated by quasi-isentropic filamentation by Rossby waves and by vertical displacements of material surfaces by gravity waves. Data from Wallops Island, Virginia show that Rossby wave induced ozone laminae are most frequently encountered at Wallops during the winter months near 15 km while statistically significant gravity wave induced laminae occur above 15 km during the early winter and at the tropopause from late winter through early spring.

Pierce, R. Bradley↗
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming

Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Measurements of the Downward Longwave Radiation Spectrum over the Antarctic Plateau and Comparisons with a Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model for Clear Skies

A 1-year field program was conducted at South Pole Station in 1992 to measure the downward infrared radiance spectrum at a resolution of 1/ cm over the spectral range 550-1667 cm-'. The atmosphere over the Antarctic Plateau is the coldest and driest on Earth, where in winter, surface temperatures average about -60 C, the total column water vapor is as low as 300 pm of precipitable water, and the clear-sky downward longwave flux is usually less than 80 W/sq m. Three clear-sky test cases are selected, one each for summer, winter, and spring, for which high- quality radiance data are available.as well as ancillary data to construct model atmospheres from radiosondes, ozonesondes, and other measurements. The model atmospheres are used in conjunction with the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) to compare model calculations with the spectral radiance measurements. The high-resolution calculations of LBLRTM (approx. = 0.001/ cm) are matched to the lower-resolution measurements (1/ cm) by adjusting their spectral resolution and by applying a correction for the finite field of view of the interferometer. In summer the uncertainties in temperature and water vapor profiles dominate the radiance error in the LBLRTM calculations. In winter the uncertainty in viewing zenith angle becomes important as well as the choice of atmospheric levels in the strong near-surface temperature inversion. The spectral radiance calculated for each of the three test cases generally agrees with that measured, to within twice the total estimated radiance error, thus validating LBLRTM to this level of accuracy for Antarctic conditions. However, the discrepancy exceeds twice the estimated error in the gaps between spectral lines in the region 1250-1500/ cm, where emission is dominated by the foreign-broadened water vapor continuum.

Walden, Von P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Satellite-Derived Dynamics of Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Antarctic ERS-2, RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar and ERS-1/2 Scatterometer images were analyzed with SMMI radiometer image time-series data to investigate seasonal variability in satellite-tracked sea-ice dynamics in the Southern Ocean during 1992. Supporting field data were acquired during 'in-situ' experiments including the winter 1992 Ice Station Weddell and Winter Weddell Gyre studies. A variety of surface measurements were made during these experiments including Argos-buoy deployment and GPS drift measurements. These are used in conjunction with International Program for Antarctic Buoys drift trajectories for ice-motion tracking validation. Comparisons between gridded Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) ice-motion vectors and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (ECMWF/NCEP) analyses indicate that large-scale drift is forced predominantly by the long-term mean, large-scale synoptic pressure field. Only sub-daily SAR sea-ice tracking can capture high-frequency fluctuations, driven by polar lows or tidal forcing. In these cases, sea-ice drift can respond rapidly to changes in forcing on semi-diurnal time scales depending on the location with respect to the coastline. Seasonality of ice drift, particularly in the Weddell and Ross Seas, is linked to ice extent and compactness, and internal ice stresses transmitted through the pack ice from the coast. Three-monthly seasonal climatologies are presented of austral winter of ice drift in the Southern Ocean. The large Weddell and Ross Sea gyres are clearly resolved along with key seasonal and spatial attributes of their cyclonic circulation. Regional time series of ice dynamics parameters are used to illustrate correlations with meteorological forcing. Persistent divergence such as that occurring in the Ronne-Filchner polynya system results in large fractions of new ice. Similarly, convergence zones produce large fractions of deformed ice and characterize the dynamics of regions where perennial ice is observed. High shear strains also help delineate the axis of the Antarctic divergence in many places in the ice cover. In these regions, the separation between the coastal 'east wind drift'and ACC-dominated drift regimes is characterized by zonally extended regions of intense shear.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast U.S. Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the warm episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 198283. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the detailed coverage of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such interannual changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the 1997-98 ENSO event the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin there is a 100-150% increase in lightning days year-to-year (a peak of 33 days in the winter of 1997-98 vs. only 15 days or fewer in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 winter). In addition, there is a nearly 200% increase in lightning hours (a peak of 138 hours in 1996-97 vs. 50 hours in both 1996-97 and 1998-99). The increase in lightning activity during ENSO occurs in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones that developed within or moved through the Gulf basin. The primary variables controlling these enhancements in thunderstorm activity are the position and strength of the jet stream.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Spacebased Observations of the Oceanic Responses to Monsoons in South China Sea and Arabian Sea

A large percentage of the world's population and their agrarian economy must endure the vagaries of the monsoons over the tropical oceans between Africa and the Philippines. We know very little about the oceanic responses to changes of the monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS), which is under the influence of the East Asian Monsoon System, and the Arabian Sea (AS), which is dominated by the Indian Monsoon System; oceanic observations are sparse in both regions. Data from spaceborne microwave scatterometers and radiometers have been used to estimate the two major atmospheric forcing, momentum flux and latent heat flux (LHF), which change with the monsoon winds. Spaceborne sensors also observed the surface signatures of the oceanic response: SST and sea level changes (SLC. Sufficient durations of these data have recently become available to allow the meaningful studies of the annual cycles and interannual anomalies. In SCS, the winter monsoon is strong and steady but the summer monsoon is weak and has large intraseasonal fluctuations. In AS, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon. Significant correlations between LHF and SST tendency, and between curl of wind stress and SLC are found in both oceans. In the north SCS, winds are strong and dry, LHF is high, and ocean cooling is also large in fall; LHF is low and the ocean warms up in spring. In AS, LHF and SST tendency have a semi annual period; LHF is high in summer when the wind is strong and in winter when the wind is dry. Along the coast of Oman, the strong summer southwest monsoon causes intense upwelling, low SST and LHF in summer; such wind-driven SST changes is not as obvious along the Vietnam coast because of the weaker summer monsoon. The negative correlation between curl of wind stress and SLC found in the central basins of both SCS and AS agrees with a simple Ekman pumping scenario. Cyclonic winds drive surface divergence and upwelling in the ocean; the rise of the thermocline causes lower sea levels. Anticyclonic winds cause higher SLC. The exceptions (positive correlations) are found in the coastal regions in the north and the south of SCS, off the west coast of India between 5N and 10N, and along the coast of Somalia.

Xie, Xiao-Su↗
NASA NTRS2000

Early Spring in Europe: A Result of More Dominant North-Atlantic Southwesterlies?

Abstract A 1999 study reports an advancement of spring in Europe by 0.2 days per year in the 30 years since 1960. Our analysis indicates that this trend results directly from a change in the late-winter surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic: the southwesterly direction became more dominant, and the speed of these southwesterlies increased slightly. Splitting the 52-year NCEP reanalysis dataset into the First Half, FH (1948-1973)), and the Second Half, SH (1974-1999), we analyze the wind direction for the February mean at three sites at 45N: site A at 30W, site B at 20W, and site C at 10W. The incidence (number of years) of the southwesterlies in SH Vs. (FH) at these sites respectively increased in SH as follows: 24(18), 19(12), 14(l 1); whereas the incidence of northeasterlies decreased: 0(2), 1(2), and 1(6). When the February mean wind is southwesterly, the monthly mean sensible heat flux from the ocean at these sites takes zero or slightly negative values, that is, the surface air is warmer than the ocean. Analyzing the scenario in the warm late winter 1990, we observe that the sensible heat flux from the ocean surface in February 1990 shows a "tongue" of negative values extending southwest from southern England to 7N. This indicates that the source of the maritime air advected into Europe lies to the south of the "tongue." Streamline analysis suggests that the Southwestern or southcentral North Atlantic is the source. For February 1990, we find strong, ascending motions over Europe at 700 mb, up to -0.4 Pa/s as monthly averages. Associated with the unstable low-levels of the troposphere are positive rain and cloud anomalies. Thus, positive in situ feedback over land in late winter (when shortwave absorption is not significant) apparently further enhances the surface temperature through an increase in the greenhouse effect due to increased water vapor and cloudiness.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Interaction Between Dynamics and Chemistry of Ozone in the Set-Up Phase of the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex

Understanding stratospheric ozone loss to the point of accurately predicting ozone in the future requires correctly distinguishing chemical from transport-induced changes in ozone. For example, evaluating the impact of chlorine reduction in controlling stratospheric ozone loss requires estimating the amount of ozone lost in chemical reactions in the polar winter and spring. The Northern Hemisphere winter polar region is a particularly crucial and interesting area because it appears that the Northern vortex may currently be poised near the threshold of extreme ozone destruction such as that which now occurs annually in the Antarctic ozone "hole." In this presentation we explore the interaction of ozone transport and chemistry through the Northern late summer and fall seasons as the vortex circulation becomes established. This phase of the seasonal cycle determines the starting point for heterogeneous processes and chlorine-driven loss that take control in the winter vortex. Using a combination of profile data from POAM, HALOE, and in situ measurements, we show that relatively low ozone at high latitudes in the middle stratosphere is associated with vortex airmasses and that these ozone abundances evolve photochemically from characteristically higher values at the end of the summer. The zonal variance of ozone mixing ratio also increases greatly at this time consistent with increasing wave-driven transport. Comparison with a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to generalize the findings from the limited set of observations and quantify the relative roles of transport and chemistry in determining the ozone mixing ratio distributions.

Kawa, S.R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS HYD-4 Standard Snow Course Data

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Hydrology (HYD)-4 work was focused on collecting data during the winter focused field campaign (FFC-W) to improve the understanding of winter processes within the boreal forest. Knowledge of snow cover and its variability in the boreal forest is fundamental if BOREAS is to achieve its goals of understanding the processes and states involved in the exchange of energy and water. The development and validation of remote sensing algorithms will provide the means to extend the knowledge of these processes and states from the local to the regional scale. A specific thrust of the research is the development and validation of snow cover algorithms from airborne passive microwave measurements. Snow surveys were conducted at special snow courses throughout the 1993/94, 1994/95, 1995/96, and 1996/97 winter seasons. These snow courses were located in different boreal forest land cover types (i.e., old aspen, old black spruce, young jack pine, forest clearing, etc.) to document snow cover variations throughout the season as a function of different land cover. Measurements of snow depth, density, and water equivalent were acquired on or near the first and fifteenth of each month during the snow cover season. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files. The HYD-4 standard snow course data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Metcalfe, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Modeling the Dynamics of the Middle Atmosphere and Lower Thermosphere Under the Influence of Gravity Waves

Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which extends from the ground up into the thermosphere, is non-linear, time-dependent and has been employed for 2D and 3D applications. The standard version of the NSM incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small scale gravity waves (GW), but planetary waves generated in the troposphere have also been incorporated. The NSM has been applied to describe: (1) the anomalous seasonal variations of the zonal circulation and temperature in the upper mesosphere, (2) the equatorial oscillations (quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBO and SAO)) extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, (3) the diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, and (4) the planetary waves that are excited in the mesosphere. With the emphasis to provide understanding, we present here results from numerical experiments with the NSM that shed light on the GW processes that are of central importance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. These are our conclusions: (1) The large semiannual variations in the diurnal tide (DT), with peak amplitudes observed around equinox, are produced primarily by GW interactions that involve, in part, planetary waves. The DT, like planetary waves, tends to be amplified by GW momentum deposition, which reduces also the vertical wavelength, but variations in eddy viscosity associated with GW interactions are also important. (2) The semidiurnal tide (SDT) and its phase in particular, is strongly influenced by the mean zonal circulation. The SDT, individually, is also amplified by GW. But the DT filters out GW such that the GW interaction effectively reduces the amplitude of the SDT, producing a strong nonlinear interaction between the DT and SDT. (3) Without external time dependent energy or momentum sources, planetary waves (PW) are generated in the model for zonal wavenumbers 1 to 4, which have amplitudes in the mesosphere above 50 km as large as 40 m/s and periods between 50 and 2 days. The waves are generated primarily during solstice conditions, which indicates that the baroclinic instability (associated with the GW induced reversal in the latitudinal temperature gradient) is playing an important role. Numerical experiment show that GW, directly, also greatly amplify the PW. A common feature of the PW generated in summer and winter is that their vertical wavelengths throughout the mesosphere are large, which indicates that the waves are not propagating freely but are generated throughout the region. Another common feature is that the PW propagate preferentially westward in summer and eastward in winter, being launched from the westward and eastward zonal winds that prevail respectively in summer and winter at altitudes below 80 km. (4) Planetary waves generated internally by baroclinic instability and GW interaction produce large amplitude modulations of the DT and SDT. In summary we conclude that GW play major roles in generating and amplifying the dynamical components in the MLT region and, acting principally through wave filtering, produce important non-linear interactions between the components.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Stratospheric Ozone Climatology from Lidar Measurements at Table Mountain (34.0 deg N, 117.7 deg W) and Mauna Loa (19.5 deg N, 155.6 deg W)

Using more than 1600 nighttime profiles obtained by the JPL differential absorption lidars (DIAL) located at Table Mountain Facility (TMF, 34.4 N) and Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO, 19.5 N) is presented in this paper. These two systems have been providing high-resolution vertical profiles of ozone number density between 15-50 km, several nights a week since 1989 (TMF) and 1993 (MLO). The climatology presented here is typical of early night ozone values with only a small influence of the Pinatubo aerosols and the 11-year solar cycle. The observed seasonal and vertical structure of the ozone concentration at TMF is consistent with that typical of mid- to subtropical latitudes. A clear annual cycle in opposite phase below and above the ozone concentration peak is observed. The observed winter maximum below the ozone peak is associated with a maximum day-to-day variability, typical of a dynamically driven lower stratosphere. The maximum concentration observed in summer above the ozone peak emphasizes the more dominant role of photochemistry. Unlike TMF, the ozone concentration observed at MLO tends to be higher during the summer months and lower during the winter months throughout the entire stratospheric ozone layer. Only a weak signature of the extra-tropical latitudes is observed near 19-20 km, with a secondary maximum in late winter. The only large variability observed at MLO is associated with the natural variability of the tropical tropopause.

Leblanc, T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Continuing Measurements of CO2 Crystals with a Hand-Held 35 GHz Radiometer

In order to increase our knowledge of the Martian polar caps, an improved understanding of the behavior of both frozen H2O and CO2 in different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum is needed. The thermal microwave part of the spectrum has received relatively little attention compared to the visible and infrared wavelengths. A simple experiment to measure the brightness temperature of frozen CO2 was first performed in the winter of 1998 using a 35 GHz radiometer. in experiments performed during the winter of 1999 and 2000, passive microwave radiation emanating from within layers of manufactured CO2 (dry ice) crystals was again measured with a 35 GHz handheld radiometer. Both large (0.8 cm) and small (0.3 cm) cylindrical-shaped dry ice pellets, at a temperature of 197 K (-76 C), were measured. A 1 sq m plate of aluminum sheet metal was positioned beneath the dry ice so that microwave emissions from the underlying soil layers would be minimized. Non-absorbing foam was positioned around the sides of the plate in order to keep the dry ice in place and to assure that the incremental deposits were level. Thirty-five GHz measurements of this plate were made through the dry ice deposits in the following way. Layers of dry ice were built up and measurements were repeated for the increasing CO2 pack. First, 7 cm of large CO2 pellets were poured onto the sheet metal plate, then an additional 7 cm were added, and finally, 12 cm were added on top of the 14 cm base. Hand-held 35 GHz measurements were made each time the thickness of the deposit was increased. The same process was repeated for the smaller grain pellets. Furthermore, during the past winter, 35 GHz measurements were taken of a 25 kg (27 cm x 27 cm x 27 cm) solid cube Of CO2, which was cut in half and then re-measured. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Foster, J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Sea Ice Variability in the Sea of Okhotsk from Passive Microwave Satellite Observations

The Sea of Okhotsk, located between 50 and 60 N, is bounded by the Kamchatka Peninsula, Siberia, Sakhalin Island, and the Kuril Island chain and is the largest midlatitude seasonal sea ice zone in the Northern Hemisphere. The winter sea ice cover begins to form in November and expands to cover most of the sea by March. Over the following three months, the ice retreats with only small ice-covered areas remaining by the beginning of June. The sea is ice free or nearly ice free on average for six months of the year, from June through November. The recent compilation of a consistent, long-term record of Northern Hemisphere sea ice extents based on passive microwave satellite observations from the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer and from four Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imagers provides the basis for assessing long-term sea ice extent variability in the Sea of Okhotsk. Analysis of this 20-year data record (1979-1998) shows that based on yearly averages the overall extent of the Sea of Okhotsk ice cover is decreasing at the rate of -8.1+/-2.1x10(exp 3) sq km/yr (-17.2%/decade), in contrast to the rate of decrease of -33.3+/-0.7x10(exp 3) sq km/yr (-2.7%/decade) for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. There is large regional sea ice extent variability of the Arctic ice cover. Two of the nine Arctic regions analyzed, the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, show increases of 0.8+/-1.4xl0(exp 3) sq km/yr (2.7%/decade) and 1.2+/-0.5xl0(exp 3) sq km/yr (17.1%/decade), respectively. Interestingly, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Gulf of St. Lawrence show about equal percentage changes, but of opposite sign. The Sea of Okhotsk exhibits its greatest percent decrease (-24.3%/decade) during spring (April-June). The year of maximum winter sea ice extent for the Sea of Okhotsk was 1979, whereas the minimum winter sea ice extent occurred in 1984.

Cavalieri, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Rozendaal, Margaret A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2001

On the Origin of Polar Vortex Air

The existence of the multi-year HALOE CH4 data set, together with some comparisons of forward with back trajectory calculations which we have carried out, has motivated us to reexamine the question of polar vortex descent. Three-dimensional diabatic trajectory calculations have been carried out for the seven month fall to spring period in both the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere for the years 1992-1999. These computations are compared to fixed descent computations where the parcels were fixed at their latitude-longitude locations and allowed to descend without circulating. The forward trajectory computed descent is always less than the fixed descent due to horizontal parcel motions and variations in heating rates with latitude and longitude. Although the forward calculations estimate the maximum amount of descent that can occur, they do not necessarily indicate the actual origin of springtime vortex air. This is because more equator-ward air can be entrained within the vortex during its formation. To examine the origin of the springtime vortex air, the trajectory model was run backward for seven months from spring to fall. The back trajectories show a complex distribution of parcels in which one population originates in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere and experiences considerable descent in the polar regions, while the remaining parcels originate at lower altitudes of the middle and lower stratosphere and are mixed into the polar regions during vortex formation without experiencing as much vertical transport. The amount of descent experienced by the first population shows little variability from year to year, while the computed descent and mixing of the remaining parcels show considerable interannual variability due to the varying polar meteorology. Because of this complex parcel distribution it is not meaningful to speak of a net amount of descent experienced over the entire winter period. Since the back trajectories indicate that much of the air can come from lower altitudes than would be implied by the forward calculations, using a comparison between pre-winter and post-winter tracer profiles to estimate the amount of descent over this period will give erroneous descent amounts. In order to evaluate the computed descent, spring methane amounts were computed by mapping HALOE fall observations onto the final latitude-altitude locations of the back trajectories. These locations indicate the origin of the spring vortex air. The agreement between the computed means and the spring HALOE means is generally within 0.1-0.2 ppmv in the NH and 0.1-0.4 ppmv in the SH.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Obliquity Experiments with a Mars General Circulation Model

We have simulated the seasonal variation of the general circulation on Mars for obliquities of 0deg and 60deg. These obliquities represent the minimum and maximum values the planet has experienced during the past 10(exp 7) years (e.g., Laskar and Robutel, 1993, Nature, 361, 608-614). The model we use is the NASA/Ames Mars General Circulation Model (Pollack et al., 1993, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 3149-3181). We vary only the obliquity; all other model parameters are as in Pollack et al. At high obliquity, the model shows dramatic seasonal variations in the polar caps and in the structure and intensity of the circulation. At the solstices the winter cap extends to the equator. Thus, surface temperatures throughout the entire winter hemisphere are fixed at the CO2 frost point. During summer surface temperatures at the poles reach 269K in the north and 295K in the south. The most notable changes to the circulation at solstice compared to our standard runs are a general weakening of the winter westerlies, a Hadley cell of greater latitudinal extent, and the development of very strong, possibly unstable, low-level jets in midlatitudes of the summer hemisphere. Surface stresses associated with these jets are sufficient to raise dust continuously. Thus, dust storms should be frequent features of the high obliquity climate. This result is independent of any desorbed regolith CO2 which would raise mean surface pressures. At zero obliquity the structure of the circulation resembles that of present day equinox conditions modulated by the varying insolation associated with orbital eccentricity. Notable features include equatorial superrotation, asymmetric Hadley cells, and stronger poleward heat fluxes in the northern hemisphere. Since the poles do not receive solar energy at any time of year, permanent caps form which extend to about 70deg in each hemisphere. However, the north permanent cap is growing at a rate 40% faster than the south cap. This is due to the differences in topography, albedo, emissivity, and heat transport in each hemisphere. Thus the zero obliquity climate system appears to be evolving toward a state in which the north cap is the dominant cap.

Harberle, R. M.↗