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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Spatially Dependent Seismic Wavefield Scattering from an Underground Chemical Explosion: Analysis of the Source Physics Experiment Dry Alluvium Geology Large- N Array

Explosion sources have been observed to generate significant shear‐wave energy despite their isotropic nature. To investigate this phenomenon, we conduct an analysis of the seismic data collected as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE): Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) and investigate the generation of shear‐wave energy via scattering. The data were produced by three underground chemical explosions and consist of three‐component seismograms, which were recorded by the DAG Large‐N array. Synthetic tests suggest that for the DAG experiments, small‐scale stochastic heterogeneities, defined as features with correlation lengths of 10–100s of meters, are more effective than large‐scale geologic structure (scales >1–10 km) at reproducing the scattering of explosion generated wavefields observed at DAG. We analyze the seismic data for spatially variable ratios between transversely and radially polarized seismic energy, and then estimate the mean free path of P and S waves. All analyses are conducted within a frequency band of 5–50 Hz. The ratio of transversely to radially polarized energy is the highest in the east and west portion of the Large‐N array. In addition, the magnitude of the estimated S‐wave mean free path is shorter in the eastern portion of the Large‐N array. This variation indicates that the eastern area of the DAG array is where more scattering is occurring, suggesting azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐P and P‐to‐S scattering. Furthermore, this azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐S scattering can have implications for explosion discrimination based on spectral ratios of seismic wave types, because the general assumption is that explosions do not generate shear‐wave energy. Synthetic tests modeling only larger‐scale geologic structure had lower transversely polarized energy (only four stations showing a transversely to radially polarized energy ratio greater than 1) and fewer stations (<10) displaying shorter (<300 m) mean free paths than what was observed in the DAG data results.

Darrh, Andréa Nicole↗

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Why Are 5-Thioglycopyranosyl Donors More Axially Selective than their Glycopyranosyl Counterparts? A Low and Variable Temperature NMR Spectroscopy and Computational Study

5-Thioglycopyranosyl donors differ in reactivity and selectivity from simple glycopyranosyl donors. An extensive study has been conducted on the nature and stability of the reactive intermediates generated on the activation of per-O-acetyl and per-O-methyl 5-thioglucopyranosyl donors and the corresponding glucopyranosyl donors. Variable temperature nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies with per-O-methylated or per-O-acetyl glycosyl sulfoxides and trichloroacetimidates on activation with trifluoromethanesulfonic anhydride or trimethylsilyl triflate are reported. These show that following initial adduct formation with the promoter conversion of the 5-thioglucopyranosyl donors to the 5-thioglucopyranosyl triflates requires higher temperatures than that of the glucopyranosyl donors to the glucopyranosyl triflates. It is demonstrated that neighboring group participation is a less important phenomenon for the peracetylated thioglucosyl donors than for the peracetylated glucosyl donors. A simple thiocarbenium ion was generated by protonation of 2,3-dihydro-4H-thiopyran at low temperature and characterized by NMR spectroscopy. However, the corresponding 5-thioglucopyranosyl thenium ions were not observed in any of the NMR studies of the 5-thiopyranosyl donors: the electron-withdrawing C–O bonds around the thiopyranoside core discourage thiocarbenium ion formation, just as they discourage oxocarbenium ion formation. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal the tetrahydrothiopyranyl thiocarbenium ion to be approximately 2.5 kcal/mol lower in energy than the corresponding tetrahydropyranyl oxocarbenium ion relative to the corresponding covalent triflates. However, the computations reveal a 5.8 kcal/mol activation barrier for conversion of the tetrahydrothiopyranyl triflate to the thiocarbenium ion, while formation of the oxocarbenium ion–triflate ion pair from tetrahydropyranyl triflate requires only 2.6 kcal·mol –1 . Overall, the greater axial selectivity of 5-thioglycopyranosyl donors compared to analogous glycopyranosyl donors derives from (i) the lower kinetic reactivity necessitating higher reaction temperatures, (ii) the greater stability of the thiocarbenium ion over the oxocarbenium ion facilitating equilibration under thermodynamic conditions, (iii) the greater magnitude of the anomeric effect in the 5-thiosugars, and (iv) decreased neighboring group participation in the per-esterified 5-thiosugars.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Building Energy Systems as Behind-the-Meter Resources for Grid Services: Intelligent load control and transactive control and coordination

To mitigate the impacts of climate change, significant reductions in emissions from all sectors of the economy are needed. The electricity generation sector has embarked on an ambitious plan to include renewable generation as part of its decarbonization efforts, and many cities and states are mandating all-electric buildings. While renewable resources will reduce emissions, they are not dispatchable, they vary temporally, and their generation is uncertain. Under these conditions, traditional approaches to managing grid reliability, where supply follows demand, will not be efficient and may not be cost-effective. Further, there is a more efficient alternative for balancing the supply–demand imbalance and for absorbing variability and uncertainty of renewable energy using distributed energy resources (DERs) as opposed to reserve generation. Because buildings consume more than 75% of total U.S. annual electricity consumption, behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs have a load flexibility of 77 GW of power and 90 GWh of virtual energy storage capacity nationwide (Kalsi, 2017). Therefore, some portion of the supply–demand imbalance can be met by these DERs at a lower cost compared to business-as-usual solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Frequency and time multiplexing for multiphoton state generation

One of the primary challenges with photonic quantum information processing is that single-photon states are created and heralded probabilistically, rather than being created on demand. One solution to this problem is multiplexing , which is attempting probabilistic generation of a single photon at multiple locations, times, or frequencies, and switching one successfully generated photon into an output mode. Motivated by the development of frequency-based photonic quantum information processing, we consider multiplexing using frequency and time as our options to use to get many photon generation opportunities. We devise an approach for generating multiphoton states, with photons populating multiple frequency modes in the same spatiotemporal mode. This method uses a variable-length optical delays to manipulate the temporal mode of the photons, and spaced fiber Bragg grating (FBG) reflectors to jointly manipulate the frequency and temporal modes of the photons. Experimental progress toward implementing this multiplexing scheme is proceeding along 2 fronts, each with different ways to achieve the variable-length optical delay. First, we will implement this scheme using a free-space optical quantum memory with multiple discretely adjustable free-space delays. For this implementation method, I calculate multiphoton generation rates, accounting for loss, that are realistically achievable with commercially available hardware. This work will appear in a theory paper, currently in preparation. Second, we will implement this multiplexing scheme in an integrated manner: the variable-length optical delay will happen on-chip using a long-lifetime Q-switchable Fabry-Perot cavity. The joint manipulation of the frequency and temporal modes of the photons will still happen off-chip in fiber with FBG reflectors. I report on experimental progress in constructing integrated Q-switchable Fabry-Perot cavities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Framework for Orbital Performance Evaluation in Distributed Space Missions for Earth Observation

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth science missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM architectures have a large number of design variables and since they are expected to increase mission flexibility, scalability, evolvability and robustness, their design is a complex problem with many variables and objectives affecting performance. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables which allow performance assessment and are easy to plug into science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool developed on the MATLAB engine interfacing with STK, for DSM orbit design and selection. It is capable of generating thousands of homogeneous constellation or formation flight architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and sizing those architectures in terms of predefined performance metrics. The metrics can be input into observing system simulation experiments, as available from the science teams, allowing dynamic coupling of science and engineering designs. Design variables include but are not restricted to constellation type, formation flight type, FOV of instrument, altitude and inclination of chief orbits, differential orbital elements, leader satellites, latitudes or regions of interest, planes and satellite numbers. Intermediate performance metrics include angular coverage, number of accesses, revisit coverage, access deterioration over time at every point of the Earth's grid. The orbit design process can be streamlined and variables more bounded along the way, owing to the availability of low fidelity and low complexity models such as corrected HCW equations up to high precision STK models with J2 and drag. The tool can thus help any scientist or program manager select pre-Phase A, Pareto optimal DSM designs for a variety of science goals without having to delve into the details of the engineering design process.

Earth Science↗

Mixture density network estimation of continuous variable maximum likelihood using discrete training samples

Abstract Mixture density networks (MDNs) can be used to generate posterior density functions of model parameters $$\varvec{\theta }$$ θ given a set of observables $${\mathbf {x}}$$ x . In some applications, training data are available only for discrete values of a continuous parameter $$\varvec{\theta }$$ θ . In such situations, a number of performance-limiting issues arise which can result in biased estimates. We demonstrate the usage of MDNs for parameter estimation, discuss the origins of the biases, and propose a corrective method for each issue.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Meteoric 10Be Flux Calibration Data for the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA

This data package contains tabular and geospatial data used to quantify and model meteoric beryllium-10 fluxes in the East River watershed, Colorado, USA. The tabular component includes calibration-site data from five glacial moraine sites and includes environmental variables used to evaluate spatial controls on meteoric 10Be delivery, including elevation, mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean snow depth, and mean snow water equivalent (SWE). These site-level data were used to compare observed fluxes with environmental gradients across the watershed and to evaluate the effects of erosion correction on flux estimates. The package also includes supporting slope and curvature values used to assess topographic inputs to the erosion analysis. A second component of the data package contains updated manuscript tables and regression outputs used to summarize the relationships between meteoric 10Be flux and environmental predictors. These tables include meteoric 10Be sample information and AMS results, site-level environmental values, site-level meteoric 10Be inventory and flux values, watershed-averaged predicted fluxes, soil bulk density measurements, fine-fraction values, soil pH measurements, and regression statistics including slope, intercept, coefficient of determination, and p-value. The regression products include both standard linear regressions and regressions in which the intercept is constrained to pass through zero, and they support the analyses presented in the companion manuscript. Together, these tabular files provide the numerical basis for the manuscript tables and the regression-based interpretation of meteoric 10Be flux variability in a snow-dominated mountain watershed. The geospatial component of the package consists of GeoTIFF raster files used to generate the map products presented in Figures 2 and 6 of the companion manuscript. These rasters represent watershed-scale spatial layers for environmental variables and regression-based predictions of meteoric 10Be flux. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), Microsoft Excel files (.xlsx), GeoTIFF raster files (.tif), and upporting metadata files, including CSV data dictionaries and readme text files (.csv, .txt). The tabular files can be opened with standard spreadsheet software, and the raster files can be viewed and analyzed in GIS software such as ArcGIS Pro or QGIS. Together, these files document the numerical and spatial datasets used to calibrate and predict meteoric 10Be delivery in the East River watershed.

East River↗

Continuously variable voltage-controlled phase shifter

Phase shifter circuit adjusts the phase relationship between a locally generated reference frequency and a received RF signal applied to a phase-coherent detector. It is small enough to be integrated into a receiver subassembly and operates on command from remote control panels.

Johns, C. E.↗

On the theory of group generation of stars

The hypothesis proposed is that topology of a rotating gaseous cloud can be variable in the contraction process. Due to rotation an originally spherical cloud is transformed into a toroidal body. The contraction of a thin torus is considered with different suppositions on cooling the gas. In the determined time the torus will become gravitationally unstable. The excitation of Jeans' waves is shown to result in the disintegration of the torus into fragments. The number of the fragments and their mass distributions are calculated. The proposed hypothesis on toroidal stages in stellar evolution can remove some difficulties in the theory of structure and evolution of stars, such as absence of limitary stars, distribution of rotation velocities of early-type stars, origin of poloidal magnetic fields and decline rotators with the magnetic axis orthogonal to the axis of rotation.

Zhilyayev, B. Y.↗

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Improving the Representation of Hydropower in Production Cost Models

One of the challenges of a high-renewable, low-carbon system is that grid operators will no longer be able to count on fossil-fired generation should wind miss its forecast or modeling errors create shortage issues, and this change has operational and reliability implications that affect variable renewable energy integration. Hydropower can help in that it can provide many of the services that have been traditionally provided by fossil generation. However, getting the most from hydropower can be challenging in that its capabilities vary with time and are affected by other water users' needs, two complexities that are not well represented in most of today's production cost models (PCMs). This work is an early step in addressing these gaps and making the most of hydropower's capabilities.

cost model↗

Multiwavelength Light Curves of Two Remarkable Sagittarius A* Flares

Sgr A* , the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center of our Milky Way Galaxy, is known to be a variable source of X-ray, near-infrared (NIR), and submillimeter radiation and therefore a prime candidate to study the electromagnetic radiation generated by mass accretion flow onto a black hole and/or a related jet. Disentangling the power source and emission mechanisms of this variability is a central challenge to our understanding of accretion flows around SMBHs. Simultaneous multiwavelength observations of the flux variations and their time correlations can play an important role in obtaining a better understanding of possible emission mechanisms and their origin. This paper presents observations of two flares that both apparently violate the previously established patterns in the relative timing of submillimeter/NIR/X-ray flares from Sgr A* . One of these events provides the first evidence of coeval structure between NIR and submillimeter flux increases, while the second event is the first example of the sequence of submillimeter/X-ray/NIR flux increases all occurring within ∼1 hr. Each of these two events appears to upend assumptions that have been the basis of some analytic models of flaring in Sgr A* . However, it cannot be ruled out that these events, even though unusual, were just coincidental. These observations demonstrate that we do not fully understand the origin of the multiwavelength variability of Sgr A* and show that there is a continued and important need for long-term, coordinated, and precise multiwavelength observations of Sgr A* to characterize the full range of variability behavior

accretion↗

Aerogel-derived nickel-iron oxide catalysts for oxygen evolution reaction in alkaline media

Anion exchange membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWEs) can generate hydrogen with a pure water feed using noble metal-free catalysts. Here, the development of highly active and stable catalysts for oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is required for improving performance of AEMWEs systems. Ni-Fe (oxy)hydroxides show high OER catalytic activity in alkaline media, but typically have low surface area. In this work, we investigate a series of Ni-Fe oxides with high surface area and disordered morphology, obtained using an aerogel synthesis method. We evaluate the impact of different synthesis variables on the OER activity and demonstrate that heat treatment at high temperatures generates more ordered structure, resulting in a decrease in OER activity. Advanced characterization reveals that maintaining highly disordered and porous structure of the aerogel is essential to achieving high OER activity, as it enables the formation of highly OER-active lamellar structures of the catalyst.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis Developed for Turbomachinery Components

Aeroelastic analyses for advanced turbomachines are being developed for use at the NASA Glenn Research Center and industry. However, these analyses at present are used for turbomachinery design with uncertainties accounted for by using safety factors. This approach may lead to overly conservative designs, thereby reducing the potential of designing higher efficiency engines. An integration of the deterministic aeroelastic analysis methods with probabilistic analysis methods offers the potential to design efficient engines with fewer aeroelastic problems and to make a quantum leap toward designing safe reliable engines. In this research, probabilistic analysis is integrated with aeroelastic analysis: (1) to determine the parameters that most affect the aeroelastic characteristics (forced response and stability) of a turbomachine component such as a fan, compressor, or turbine and (2) to give the acceptable standard deviation on the design parameters for an aeroelastically stable system. The approach taken is to combine the aeroelastic analysis of the MISER (MIStuned Engine Response) code with the FPI (fast probability integration) code. The role of MISER is to provide the functional relationships that tie the structural and aerodynamic parameters (the primitive variables) to the forced response amplitudes and stability eigenvalues (the response properties). The role of FPI is to perform probabilistic analyses by utilizing the response properties generated by MISER. The results are a probability density function for the response properties. The probabilistic sensitivities of the response variables to uncertainty in primitive variables are obtained as a byproduct of the FPI technique. The combined analysis of aeroelastic and probabilistic analysis is applied to a 12-bladed cascade vibrating in bending and torsion. Out of the total 11 design parameters, 6 are considered as having probabilistic variation. The six parameters are space-to-chord ratio (SBYC), stagger angle (GAMA), elastic axis (ELAXS), Mach number (MACH), mass ratio (MASSR), and frequency ratio (WHWB). The cascade is considered to be in subsonic flow with Mach 0.7. The results of the probabilistic aeroelastic analysis are the probability density function of predicted aerodynamic damping and frequency for flutter and the response amplitudes for forced response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

Override of spontaneous respiratory pattern generator reduces cardiovascular parasympathetic influence

We investigated the effects of voluntary control of breathing on autonomic function in cardiovascular regulation. Variability in heart rate was compared between 5 min of spontaneous and controlled breathing. During controlled breathing, for 5 min, subjects voluntarily reproduced their own spontaneous breathing pattern (both rate and volume on a breath-by-breath basis). With the use of this experimental design, we could unmask the effects of voluntary override of the spontaneous respiratory pattern generator on autonomic function in cardiovascular regulation without the confounding effects of altered respiratory pattern. Results from 10 subjects showed that during voluntary control of breathing, mean values of heart rate and blood pressure increased, whereas fractal and spectral powers in heart rate in the respiratory frequency region decreased. End-tidal PCO2 was similar during spontaneous and controlled breathing. These results indicate that the act of voluntary control of breathing decreases the influence of the vagal component, which is the principal parasympathetic influence in cardiovascular regulation.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗