Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,099 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Sources of error in detonation calorimeters and error analysis for neat 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5- trinitrobenzene (TATB)

Here, a calorimeter for measuring heats of detonation at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is described. A calibration precision of 0.2 % at the 95 % confidence interval (CI) is reported. Sources of uncertainty are discussed, including nonequivalent sources, which are those arising from differences between calibration and experimental tests. The systematic error due to nonequivalent sources is bounded to 0.19–0.22 % of the measured heat for a standard detonation test where the confinement material is gold. The recommendation is to correct for the systematic error by adding 0.19 % to the reported value and adding 0.03 % to the uncertainty. It is demonstrated that the precision of a detonation test is variable with testing duration because a source of uncertainty resides in the thermodynamic correction factor k6, which accounts for the contribution to heat by stirring; the generated power is additive and therefore highly impacted by total test time. The relative proportion also varies with the magnitude of heat release and sample size, adding variance to the weight of the error arising from the correction factor. A full error analysis based on the described sources of uncertainty is developed. The methodology is applied to a test series on neat 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5- trinitrobenzene (TATB), demonstrating an ultimate precision of 0.7 % (single test) for materials testing and a relative standard deviation of 1.8 %.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertain Parameters in PDE-Constrained Optimization

Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional complexity, namely, uncertain parameters in the PDEs. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary to characterize, prioritize, and study the influence of these uncertain parameters. Sensitivity analysis, a classical tool in UQ, is frequently used to study the sensitivity of a model to uncertain parameters. In this article, we introduce "hyper-differential sensitivity analysis" which considers the sensitivity of the solution of a PDE-constrained optimization problem to uncertain parameters. Our approach is a goal-oriented analysis which may be viewed as a tool to complement other UQ methods in the service of decision making and robust design. We formally define hyper-differential sensitivity indices and highlight their relationship to the existing optimization and sensitivity analysis literatures. Assuming the presence of low rank structure in the parameter space, computational efficiency is achieved by leveraging a generalized singular value decomposition in conjunction with a randomized solver which converts the computational bottleneck of the algorithm into an embarrassingly parallel loop. Two multi-physics examples, consisting of nonlinear steady state control and transient linear inversion, demonstrate efficient identification of the uncertain parameters which have the greatest influence on the optimal solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetotail Variability During Magnetospheric Substorms

Abstract In this work, we present a statistical study of substorms covering a five‐year period 2016–2020. Substorm phases were identified from time series of the SuperMAG AL (SML) index using a list of 5,077 previously identified substorm onsets, the SML peak value marking transition from expansion to recovery phase, and the recovery identified as return to activity less than −100 nT in the SML index. Magnetic field observations from THEMIS, RBSP, and MMS missions were used to study the magnetotail characteristics during the substorm evolution. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the substorm onset occurs almost simultaneously with a few minutes of uncertainty throughout the magnetotail, ranging from geostationary orbit to 20 RE. The onset in the transition region precedes the ground onset by a few minutes. The peak SML time coincides with the peak of the outer transition region Δ B Z , which suggests that the field‐aligned currents driving the SML activity arise from the outer transition region. Analysis of 2D maps of the tail magnetic field shows that the magnetotail current changes are limited to the center of the tail within | Y | < 10 R E . The substorm recovery is fastest in the inner transition region and lasts longer when moving further out. We did not find major asymmetries in the substorm signatures associated with IMF B Y or B Z .

Kumar, S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Code Coverage Status of the ARC Code PERSENT

The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system supports users in their fast reactor design goals by providing neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and structural analysis capabilities. PERSENT fulfills the role of generating reactivity coefficients for a given time point of a REBUS calculation usable in a point kinetics based safety analysis capability. PERSENT also provides a sensitivity coefficient capability on eigenvalue, reactivity worth, and several other key coefficients that are used in the follow-on safety analysis. Given a co-variance matrix, PERSENT can carry out the uncertainty quantification to indicate the amount of error in the reactivity coefficients derived from the errors in the cross section measurements. With continued improvement of computational resources, many of the geometry modeling capabilities in DIF3D that were primarily used in low order schemes are not really needed anymore. Today, the diffusion and transport capabilities of DIF3D-VARIANT are primarily used in the reactor design process with some scattered usage of DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-Nodal. PERSENT is part of the ARC code system and is built around DIF3D-VARIANT and the flux solution it provides. The purpose of the present work is to identify a set of test problems for PERSENT and assess the code coverage of PERSENT for those test problems. PERSENT treats the DIF3D executable as an external executable and thus the code coverage considerations only need to focus on the PERSENT source code and only a fraction of the connected modules in the existing ARC software library. The goal is to document what parts of the existing PERSENT code are touched by the set of test problems and which are not. Because the verification work done on PERSENT was focused on the most common uses of PERSENT for fast reactor analysis, the code coverage assessment of those capabilities is the highest priority. This will ensure that nothing is being missed by the existing verification test problems that users of PERSENT rely upon. The code coverage analysis of PERSENT was performed with the Code Coverage Tool of the Intel Fortran compiler which requires modifications to the compilation of PERSENT. The detailed coverage tables are given for each submodule of PERSENT. Most of the uncovered parts/files could be easily ignored because they are either for error message and debugging output or not needed by PERSENT today. Only a few uncovered parts of PERSENT deserve extending the verification test suite.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region

The project Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Rocky Mountain Carbon Capture and Storage (RMCCS) project investigated multiple geologic formations and characterized a local site on the Colorado Plateau for future CCS opportunities. The RMCCS project focused on the Cretaceous Dakota, Jurassic Entrada, and Pennsylvanian Weber Sandstones, the three largest regional formations. All formations in this project are potential CO2 storage resources for future power plants, natural gas processing plants, cement plants, and oil shale development projects. The area adjacent to Craig, Colorado, (Sand Wash Basin) was the area selected for detailed geologic characterization on the RMCCS project. The basin was selected in part because the geology can be extrapolated to other sites on the Colorado Plateau. Field mapping and seismic surveys were conducted to identify and evaluate the basin's structural configuration. A 9,745-foot deep characterization well was drilled to collect 131 feet of core and a suite of geophysical well log data. Petrophysical tests on samples of core were used to calibrate geophysical log data, which can be used to obtain storage resource estimates and evaluate associated uncertainty as well as simulate the hydrologic behavior of injected CO2. A detailed analysis of the primary formations (Dakota, Entrada and Weber sandstones) yielded a more accurate CO2 storage resource assessment for these formations within the Colorado Plateau; RMCCS estimates indicate a total CO2 storage resource of more than 38,000 million metric tons. The characterization of the Sand Wash Basin (2-D seismic surveys, multiple well logs and lithological, petrophysical and geochemical analyses) allowed for a detailed 3-D model to be constructed. The model served as the framework for analyses ranging from CO2 storage resource, injectivity, and subsurface flow to uncertainty estimates to evaluation of risk.

2-D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI-DR1 3x2-pt analysis: scale cut and shear ratio tests

Combined survey analyses of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing (3x2-pt studies) will allow new and accurate tests of the standard cosmological model. However, careful validation is necessary to ensure that these cosmological constraints are not biased by uncertainties associated with the modelling of astrophysical or systematic effects. In this study we validate the combined 3x2-pt analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) spectroscopic galaxy clustering and overlapping weak lensing datasets from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). By propagating the modelling uncertainties associated with the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and baryon feedback, we design scale cuts to ensure that measurements of the matter density and the amplitude of the matter power spectrum are biased by less than 30% of the statistical error. We also test the internal consistency of the data and weak lensing systematics by performing new measurements of the lensing shear ratio. We demonstrate that the DESI-DR1 shear ratios can be successfully fit by the same model used to describe cosmic shear correlations, and analyse the additional information that can be extracted about the source redshift distributions and intrinsic alignment parameters. This study serves as crucial preparation for the upcoming cosmological parameter analysis of these datasets.

Emas, N. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercompu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary analysis of TREAT free-field experiments using openmc

This work analyses activation calculations for dosimetry materials during a steady-state irradiation in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) reactor core. Hence, we developed a workflow based on the Monte Carlo code OpenMC alongside a custom depletion solver. The irradiation-induced activity as a function of time is computed, and several sensitivity studies are performed to evaluate uncertainty. This study has shown activity computations are sensitive to flux amplitude, irradiation time, atoms quantity and microscopic cross sections. Stochastic uncertainties have been propagated to evaluate the activity uncertainty for each dosimetry material. Most uncertainties are below our target of 3%, which demonstrates OpenMC as a powerful predictive and analysis tool. The precise results obtained through this newly developed computation scheme will be used in future experiments to characterize quantities of interest when operating the TREAT reactor in new configurations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary analysis of TREAT free-field experiments using OpenMC

This work analyses activation calculations for dosimetry materials during a steady-state irradiation in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) reactor core. Hence, we developed a workflow based on the Monte Carlo code OpenMC alongside a custom depletion solver. The irradiation-induced activity as a function of time is computed, and several sensitivity studies are performed to evaluate uncertainty. This study has shown activity computations are sensitive to flux amplitude, irradiation time, atoms quantity and microscopic cross sections. Stochastic uncertainties have been propagated to evaluate the activity uncertainty for each dosimetry material. Most uncertainties are below our target of 3%, which demonstrates OpenMC as a powerful predictive and analysis tool. The precise results obtained through this newly developed computation scheme will be used in future experiments to characterize quantities of interest when operating the TREAT reactor in new configurations.

61 - RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-objective Decisions on Integrated Energy Systems Planning and Operation for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply

Unlike the power sector—which can transmit electricity over long distances via established grids—the industrial sector poses a unique challenge due to its geographically concentrated large-scale heat processes. Enhancing energy security in such industrial parks provides a dual benefit: reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and improved economic viability, largely driven by economies of scale in energy supply and distribution. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of a nuclear energy hub, employing a mechanism-focused approach to evaluate uncertainties in operational strategies and capacity optimization. Load profiles from three major energy intesive industries—chemical, refinery, and steelmaking—are examined, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities for nuclear energy integration. We adopt a multi-objective optimization framework, converting multiple objectives into a single objective function through the e-constraint method. The findings highlight clear trade-offs between system conditions and varying levels of energy independence. Overall, this analysis is granular enough to address industry-specific concerns yet sufficiently generalizable to provide actionable insights into the feasibility of nuclear-based clean heat solutions for the industrial sector.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS Code Procedure With the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-Group Library: Boiling Water Reactor

The SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure has been used in the confirmatory analysis for boiling water reactors by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this study, the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library was validated by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for operating boiling water reactors, including Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3, Hatch Unit 1 cycles 1–3, and Quad Cities Unit 1 cycles 1–3. The uncertainties and biases of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and traversing in-core probe data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced data analysis in inertial confinement fusion and high energy density physics

Bayesian analysis enables flexible and rigorous definition of statistical model assumptions with well-characterized propagation of uncertainties and resulting inferences for single-shot, repeated, or even cross-platform data. This approach has a strong history of application to a variety of problems in physical sciences ranging from inference of particle mass from multi-source high-energy particle data to analysis of black-hole characteristics from gravitational wave observations. The recent adoption of Bayesian statistics for analysis and design of high-energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments has provided invaluable gains in expert understanding and experiment performance. In this Review, we discuss the basic theory and practical application of the Bayesian statistics framework. We highlight a variety of studies from the HEDP and ICF literature, demonstrating the power of this technique. Due to the computational complexity of multi-physics models needed to analyze HEDP and ICF experiments, Bayesian inference is often not computationally tractable. Two sections are devoted to a review of statistical approximations, efficient inference algorithms, and data-driven methods, such as deep-learning and dimensionality reduction, which play a significant role in enabling use of the Bayesian framework. We provide additional discussion of various applications of Bayesian and machine learning methods that appear to be sparse in the HEDP and ICF literature constituting possible next steps for the community. We conclude by highlighting community needs, the resolution of which will improve trust in data-driven methods that have proven critical for accelerating the design and discovery cycle in many application areas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate-assisted optimization under uncertainty for design for remanufacturing considering material price volatility

Remanufacturing is a well-established end-of-life (EOL) strategy that promises significant savings in energy and carbon emissions. However, the current design practices are not remanufacturing-inclusive, i.e., the majority of products are designed for a single life cycle. As a result, potential products that can sustain multiple life cycles are deprived of additional benefits of being designed for remanufacturing, such as reduced material usage, lower cost, and improved environmental impact. Moreover, the uncertainty in design, material selection, and economics are not considered to produce remanufacturable designs. Accordingly, this research proposes a design for remanufacturing (DfRem) framework that accounts for design uncertainty and material price volatility. The framework systematically explores the design space, performs design optimization under uncertainty, followed by topology optimization to provide additional mass savings, and finally, a price volatility analysis for plausible design material choices. The candidate designs are evaluated based on their design mass, material price volatility, failure mode characteristics, carbon footprint, and embodied energy impacts. The proposed framework's utility is demonstrated via the use of an engine cylinder head case study subjected to thermo-mechanical loads along with fatigue and wear failure. Considering grey cast iron and aluminum alloy as the design material choices, it was found that the cast iron design reduced the initial design mass by 6% as opposed to a 5% decrease for aluminum. On the other hand, about 8% area of the cast iron design failed due to fatigue, compared to 3% for aluminum. Here, we further observed that although the aluminum design provided better mechanical performance than the cast iron design, this material was more expensive and volatile in price.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗