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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The star-formation history in the last 10 billion years from CIB cross-correlations

ABSTRACT The cosmic infrared background (CIB) traces the emission of star-forming galaxies throughout all cosmic epochs. Breaking down the contribution from galaxies at different redshifts to the observed CIB maps would allow us to probe the history of star formation. In this paper, we cross-correlate maps of the CIB with galaxy samples covering the range z ≲ 2 to measure the bias-weighted star-formation rate (SFR) density 〈bρSFR〉 as a function of time in a model independent way. This quantity is complementary to direct measurements of the SFR density ρSFR, giving a higher weight to more massive haloes, and thus provides additional information to constrain the physical properties of star formation. Using cross-correlations of the CIB with galaxies from the DESI Legacy Survey and the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, we obtain high signal-to-noise ratio measurements of 〈bρSFR〉, which we then use to place constraints on halo-based models of the star-formation history. We fit halo-based SFR models to our data and compare the recovered ρSFR with direct measurements of this quantity. We find a qualitatively good agreement between both independent data sets, although the details depend on the specific halo model assumed. This constitutes a useful robustness test for the physical interpretation of the CIB, and reinforces the role of CIB maps as valuable astrophysical probes of the large-scale structure. We report our measurements of 〈bρSFR〉 as well as a thorough account of their statistical uncertainties, which can be used to constrain star-formation models in combination with other data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution function of nuclei from $\mathcal{e}^±$ scattering in the presence of a strong primordial magnetic field

The amplitude of the primordial magnetic field (PMF) is constrained from observational limits on primordial nuclear abundances. Within this constraint, it is possible that nuclear motion is regulated by Coulomb scattering with electrons and positrons (e ± s), while e ± s are affected by a PMF rather than collisions. For example, at a temperature of 10 9 K, thermal nuclei typically experience ~ 10 21 scatterings per second that are dominated by very small angle scattering leading to minuscule changes in the nuclear kinetic energy of order $\mathcal{O}$(1) eV. In this paper the upper limit on the effects of a possible discretization of the e ± momenta by the PMF on the nuclear momentum distribution is estimated under the extreme assumptions that the momentum of the e ± is relaxed before and after Coulomb scattering to Landau levels, and that during Coulomb scattering the PMF is neglected. This assumption explicitly breaks the time reversal invariance of Coulomb scattering, and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is not a trivial steady state solution of the Boltzmann equation under these assumptions. Here we numerically evaluate the collision terms in the Boltzmann equation, and show that the introduction of a special direction in the e ± distribution by the PMF generates no directional dependence of the collisional destruction term of nuclei. Large anisotropies in the nuclear distribution function are then constrained from big bang nucleosynthesis. Ultimately, we conclude that a PMF does not significantly affect the isotropy or big bang nucleosynthesis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thoughts on Analyzing Neutron Multiplicity Data

Bayesian methods offer many advantages for analyzing neutron multiplicity data. Ideally one would make nonparametric estimates of the the posterior distributions, the probabilities - given the data - for unknowns to take on particular values. Once one has the posterior, uncertainty quantification is very natural. We describe how different ways of formulating the statistical theory of fission chains are mathematically equivalent. When confronted with actual data and the burden of finite statistics, different methods of expressing the theory offer advantages for understanding the underlying source parameters from an information theory standpoint.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Space Object Conjunction Probabilities Using Characteristic Function Inversion

This report discusses an approach to computing the probability of a conjunction between two space objects in the short-term encounter scenario. A conjunction is defined here as an event where the miss distance between the objects is less than some specified value. The scenario assumptions are that the motion of the objects is linear, their positions are Gaussian distributed, and their velocities are known and constant. Under these assumptions, the squared-miss distance is shown to have the generalized chi-square distribution. An established statistical technique called characteristic function inversion is employed to evaluate the distribution and obtain conjunction probabilities. The method is closely related to a recent approach based on moment generating function inversion, and a qualitative comparison of the approaches is provided. Last, the method is tested on several benchmark test cases where it agrees with numerical integration on the cases with conjunction probabilities above 10 –12 . However, the exact probability in these cases is usually not needed and this probability can be bounded above using an independent Gaussian approximation. Overall, the report shows how to compute conjunction probabilities using a standard statistical method, though numerical integration seems to perform equally well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Results from the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The goal of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab is to measure the muon magnetic momentanomaly with a final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). The experiment has published tworesults based on the data collected in 2018 (Run-1) and 2019-2020 (Run-2/3), respectively. These results confirm the previous measurement performed 20 years ago at Brookhaven National Laboratory, and their combination reaches the unprecedented uncertainty of 200 ppb. This proceeding presents a brief overview of the Standard Model prediction for the muon g-2. It then summarizes the experimental measurement technique and the Run-1 and Run-2/3 measurements, detailing the improvements in their systematic and statistical uncertainties. Finally, it illustrates the comparison between theory and experiment and discusses future prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical and Structural Changes in Corn Stover After Ensiling: Influence on Bioconversion

Production of biofuels, bioproducts, and bioenergy requires a well-characterized, stable, and reasonably uniform biomass supply and well-established supply chains for shipping biomass from farm fields to biorefineries, while achieving year-round production targets. Preserving and stabilizing biomass feedstock during storage is a necessity for cost-effective and sustainable biofuel production. Ensiling is a common storage method used to preserve and even improve forage quality; however, the impact of ensiling on biomass physical and chemical properties that influence bioconversion processes has been variable. Our objective in this work was to determine the effects of ensiling on lignocellulosic feedstock physicochemical properties and how that influences bioconversion requirements. We observed statistically significant decreases (p < 0.05) in the content of two major structural carbohydrates (glucan and xylan) of 5 and 8%, respectively, between the ensiled and non-ensiled materials. We were unable to detect differences in sugar yields from structural carbohydrates after pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis of the ensiled materials compared to non-ensiled controls. Based on this work, we conclude that ensiling the corn stover did not change the bioconversion requirements compared to the control samples and incurred losses of structural carbohydrates. At the light microscopy level, ensiled corn stover exhibited little structural change or relocation of cell wall components as detected by immunocytochemistry. However, more subtle structural changes were revealed by electron microscopy, as ensiled cell walls exhibit ultrastructural characteristics such as wall delimitation intermediate between non-ensiled and dilute-acid-pretreated cell walls. These findings suggest that alternative methods of conversion, such as deacetylation and mechanical refining, could take advantage of lamellar defects and may be more effective than dilute acid or hot water pretreatment for biomass conversion of ensiled materials.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical characterization of experimental magnetized liner inertial fusion stagnation images using deep-learning-based fuel–background segmentation

Significant variety is observed in spherical crystal x-ray imager (SCXI) data for the stagnated fuel–liner system created in Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experiments conducted at the Sandia National Laboratories Z-facility. As a result, image analysis tasks involving, e.g., region-of-interest selection (i.e. segmentation), background subtraction and image registration have generally required tedious manual treatment leading to increased risk of irreproducibility, lack of uncertainty quantification and smaller-scale studies using only a fraction of available data. We present a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based pipeline to automate much of the image processing workflow. This tool enabled batch preprocessing of an ensemble of N scans = 139 SCXI images across N exp = 67 different experiments for subsequent study. The pipeline begins by segmenting images into the stagnated fuel and background using a CNN trained on synthetic images generated from a geometric model of a physical three-dimensional plasma. The resulting segmentation allows for a rules-based registration. Our approach flexibly handles rarely occurring artifacts through minimal user input and avoids the need for extensive hand labelling and augmentation of our experimental dataset that would be needed to train an end-to-end pipeline. Here we also fit background pixels using low-degree polynomials, and perform a statistical assessment of the background and noise properties over the entire image database. Our results provide a guide for choices made in statistical inference models using stagnation image data and can be applied in the generation of synthetic datasets with realistic choices of noise statistics and background models used for machine learning tasks in MagLIF data analysis. We anticipate that the method may be readily extended to automate other MagLIF stagnation imaging applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting fusion ignition at the National Ignition Facility with physics-informed deep learning

Here, an inertial confinement fusion experiment, carried out at the National Ignition Facility, has achieved ignition by generating fusion energy exceeding the laser energy that drove the experiment. Prior to the experiment, a generative machine learning model that combines radiation hydrodynamics simulations, deep learning, experimental data, and Bayesian statistics was used to predict, with a probability greater than 70%, that ignition was the most likely outcome for this shot.

Spears, Brian K. [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2023

An over-approximation of entropy for elemental multiconfigurational ground state electronic structures

The ability to predict the chemical and physical properties of a material is directly related to the structure and interactions of its electrons. For materials comprised of f-block elements (the lanthanides and actinides found in the last two rows of the periodic table), the complexity of electronic structure has presented great difficulty in understanding, modeling, and predicting material properties. The complexity of multiconfigurational ground state electronic structures is illustrated herein by the combinatorics of electron permutations within individual and cumulative occupancy configurations. A non-integer orbital occupancy representation of multiconfigurational ground states is described for superposition mixing between multiple near-energy degenerate occupancy configurations and generalized in such a way that established ground states are returned by approximation for elements with less-complex electronic structures. By considering the occupancy configurations as statistical mechanics macrostates, and the permutations of electrons as statistical mechanics microstates within those macrostates, an over-approximation of entropy for multiconfigurational elemental ground state electronic structures has been calculated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-energy enhancement of the magnetic dipole radiation in odd-mass lanthanides

We compute the magnetic dipole (M1) $\gamma$-ray strength functions ($\gamma$SF) for the odd-mass lanthanides $^{\textrm{143-151}}$Nd and $^{\textrm{147-153}}$Sm using the shell-model Monte Carlo method in combination with the static-path approximation and the maximum-entropy method. In particular, we quantify the statistical uncertainties in the calculated M1 $\gamma$SFs and show that they are under control for the excitation energies relevant to the experiments despite a Monte Carlo sign problem that originates in the projection onto an odd number of neutrons. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the M1 $\gamma$SFs of these odd-mass lanthanides, which was recently observed experimentally in some of them. We also find a scissors mode resonance (SR) in the strongly deformed isotopes. We observe that the decrease in the LEE strength with neutron number along an isotopic chain is compensated for by an increase in the SR strength in the deformed nuclei. Furthermore, we compare our results with recent experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the viscoplastic response of a crystallizing fluoropolymer using transient network theory

We employ a molecular theory of dynamic polymer networks to describe the viscoplastic response of rubbery FK-800, a thermoplastic copolymer of chlorotrifluoroethylene and vinylidene fluoride, over a broad range of thermal histories. The kinetics of crystallization at different annealing temperatures was modeled using a modified Avrami equation, whose parameters were found to evolve through simple relationships over the full temperature range of the rubbery state. By fitting experimental compression data, we discovered predictable trends for the physical parameters in our mechanical model over its full range of crystallinities (up to ≈20%) and provided insights based on molecular-level physics to justify them. Using this, an end-to-end model was developed to predict the yielding and post-yield behavior of rubbery FK-800 for arbitrary thermal histories. The model successfully predicted the highly nonlinear evolution of characteristic mechanical signatures (stiffness, yield point, post-yield drop) throughout the crystallization process. A statistical analysis of variance test was employed to determine that the measured variations in the mechanical behavior of rubbery FK-800 are primarily dictated by its fractional crystallinity, regardless of its exact thermal history.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Avoiding biases in binned fits

Abstract Binned maximum likelihood fits are an attractive option when analysing large datasets, but require care when computing likelihoods of continuous PDFs in bins.For many years the widely used statistical modelling package evaluated probabilities at the bin centre, leading to significant biases for strongly curved probability density functions.We demonstrate the biases with real-world examples, and introduce a PDF class to that removes these biases.The physics and computation performance of this new class are discussed.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae using circumstellar material interaction signatures

This work aims to study different probes of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) progenitors that have been suggested to be linked to the presence of circumstellar material (CSM). In particular, we have investigated, for the first time, the link between narrow blueshifted Nai D absorption profiles and the presence and strength of the broad high-velocity Caii near-infrared triplet absorption features seen in SNe Ia around maximum light. With the probes exploring different distances from the SN; Nai D > 10 17 cm, high-velocity Caii features < 10 15 cm. For this, we have used a new intermediate-resolution X-shooter spectral sample of 15 SNe Ia. We do not identify a link between these two probes, implying either that, one (or both) is not physically related to the presence of CSM or that the occurrence of CSM at the distance explored by one probe is not linked to its presence at the distance probed by the other. However, the previously identified statistical excess in the presence of blueshifted (over redshifted) Nai D absorption is confirmed in this sample at high significance and is found to be stronger in SNe Ia hosted by late-type galaxies. This excess is difficult to explain as being from an interstellar-medium origin as has been suggested by some recent modelling, as such an origin is not expected to show a bias for blueshifted absorption. However, a circumstellar origin for these features also appears unsatisfactory based on our new results, given the lack of link between the two probes of CSM investigated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

First observation of the decay Λ c + → n K S 0 π + π 0

Based on 4.5 fb − 1 of e + e − collision data accumulated at center-of-mass energies between 4599.53 and 4698.82 MeV with the BESIII detector, the decay Λ c + → n K S 0 π + π 0 is observed for the first time with a significance of 9.2 σ . The branching fraction is measured to be ( 0.85 ± 0.13 ± 0.03 ) % , where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic, which differs from the theoretical prediction based on isospin by 4.4 σ . This indicates that there may be resonant contributions or some unknown dynamics in this decay. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the branching fractions of the decays Λ c + → Λ K S 0 K + , Λ c + → Λ K S 0 π + , and Λ c + → Λ K * +

Studies are performed of the Cabibbo-favored decay Λ c + → Λ K S 0 K + and the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decay Λ c + → Λ K S 0 π + , based on a sample of e + e − collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.5 fb − 1 , accumulated at center-of-mass energies between 4599.53 MeV and 4698.82 MeV with the BESIII detector. The decay Λ c + → Λ K S 0 π + is observed for the first time. The branching fractions of Λ c + → Λ K S 0 K + and Λ c + → Λ K S 0 π + are measured to be ( 3.04 ± 0.30 ± 0.16 ) × 10 − 3 and ( 1.73 ± 0.27 ± 0.10 ) × 10 − 3 , respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. These results correspond to the most precise measurement of these quantities for both decays. Evidence of a K * + contribution in the Λ c + → Λ K S 0 π + decay is found with a statistical significance of 4.71 σ . The branching fraction of Λ c + → Λ K * + is calculated under three possible interference scenarios, with the significance increasing to 5.03 σ when interference is taken into account. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablikim, M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bioenergy Feedstock Library Annual Summary Report

The Bioenergy Feedstock Library (BFL), part of the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility (BFNUF) located at INL, is a physical sample repository and a web-accessible electronic database. The BFL stores physical and chemical characteristics of biomass and waste carbon sources for energy use as well as samples generated from across U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) funded projects. The objective of this Bioenergy Feedstock Library Annual Summary Report for 2022 is to focus on the (1) publicly available analytical data and equipment tracked through the BFNUF, (2) physical samples available for request, (3) sample and data archival progress from recent BETO-funded projects, and (4) publicly available data sets created upon request from BETO, INL projects, or outside entities. This report highlights key statistics from FY22 and available data and information important for INL, BFL users, academics, and industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing lepton flavor universality at future Z factories

As one of the hypothetical principles in the Standard Model (SM), lepton flavor universality (LFU) should be tested with a precision as high as possible such that the physics violating this principle can be fully examined. The run of a Z factory at a future e + e − collider, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider or Future Circular Collider (electron/positron), provides a great opportunity to perform this task because of the large statistics and high reconstruction efficiencies for b hadrons at the Z pole. In this paper, we present a systematic study on the LFU test in future Z factories. The goal is threefold. First, we study the sensitivities of measuring the LFU-violating observables of b → c τ ν , i.e., R J / ψ , R D s , R D s * , and R Λ c , where τ decays muonically. For this purpose, we develop the strategies for event reconstruction, based on the track information significantly. Second, we explore the sensitivity robustness against detector performance and its potential improvement with the message of event shape or beyond the b -hadron decays. A picture is drawn on the variation of analysis sensitivities with the detector tracking resolution and soft photon detectability, and the impact of Fox-Wolfram moments is studied on the measurement of relevant flavor events. Finally, we interpret the projected sensitivities in the SM effective field theory, by combining the LFU tests of b → c τ ν and the measurements of b → s τ + τ − and b → s ν ¯ ν . We show that the limits on the LFU-violating energy scale can be pushed up to ∼ O ( 10 ) TeV for ≲ O ( 1 ) Wilson coefficients at Tera- Z . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗